Results! Election night'04 ... your armchair expert analysis

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Dont think theres a general thread to discuss / analyse election results in as they are coming in?

If not, here's one.

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Type: Discussion • Score: 2 • Views: 30,205 • Replies: 639

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You aint gettin away that easy!

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<settling into armchair>

I think you asked about percentages of precincts reporting etc., the Yahoo homepage has a cool map which includes that info if you roll over the state.

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The BBC have a good site I've just found. Has historical data going way back to 1948, all animated n' stuff.

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Quick note, my connection just disconnected, I got it back, but that often means it will only go off again soon -- so if I stop posting entirely, that's probably what's up. (I'll go crazy, but at least I'll have TV...)

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<went to make some salmon/cream cheese and rocket/parma ham sandwiches ...>

comes back to find:

Exit poll has Mongiardo winning Kentucky Senate seat!!

Too cool!

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Oh!

Where are you keeping up on things, nimh? I have Yahoo and CNN windows open.

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Ack ... lemme paste this in here, I have too many windows open ...

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Interactives/Broadband/Polls_Close_320i2.gif

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Soz, dunno, just started checking now ... see, I already got confused. The exit poll has Bunning (R) eeking out a 51%/49% victory, but the results in thus far have Mongiardo (D) up 53% to 47%, with 48% of precincts reporting.

Bunning was considered a shoe-in for reelection to the Senate this year when the campaign began; his seat wasn't even included in overviews of "battleground" races. But he expressed himself so erratically during the campaign that people started wondering if he was still in full mental control, so to say ... he's pretty old. I think he also refused to debate Mongiardo, which added fuel to the speculations. In consequence, the race tightened considerably. But in the polls of the last week or two Bunning was back in a safe lead again, hence my pleasant surprise even at this actual exit poll data.

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Very cool!

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Slate is publishing the Network Exit poll results (before the networks have the guts to). These are raw numbers-- standard disclaimers apply.

I am feeling awfully good.

link

Exit poll information wrote:

Mucho flattering to Kerry; plus Nader makes an appearance.
By Jack Shafer
Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 4:28 PM PT

Florida
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 51
Bush 49

Michigan
Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 1

Pennsylvania
Kerry 53
Bush 46

Iowa
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Nader 1

Minnesota
Kerry 52
Bush 46
Nader 2

New Hampshire
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Nader 1

Colorado
Kerry 49
Bush 50
Nader 1

Arkansas
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1

Missouri
Kerry 47
Bush 52

New York
Kerry 62
Bush 36
Nader 2

Nevada
Kerry 49
Bush 48
Nader 1

New Jersey
Kerry 54
Bush 44
Nader 1

West Virginia
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Nader 1

Why is Slate running these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 4:20 p.m. PT

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Quote:

Foreign monitors barred from some US polling stations: OSCE observer

COPENHAGEN (AFP) - Some observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE (news - web sites)), a Europe-wide security and rights forum, were barred from entering some polling stations in the United States, one of them said.

"We were not allowed to enter polling stations," said Soeren Soendergaard, a Danish parliamentary deputy.

"Although we were officially invited to follow the (US presidential) election, the message was not passed on to the polling stations," he told the Danish news agency Ritzau.

He said he had been personally refused admission at three out of four polling stations in Columbus, Ohio.

-snip-

Another Danish OSCE observer, conservative Carina Christensen, reported less serious irregularities in Jacksonville, Florida, but said police had been called when she tried to visit a Republican office.

She and three other delegation members had been well received by local representatives of the Democrat Party who had ensured their access to polling stations.

But Republicans were less welcoming. "We were denied entry to a local Republican office in Orlando," she told Ritzau: "They called the police, saying they had received guidelines from Washington to do so."

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Didn't see that, ebrown. Seems way too early, so my enthusiasm is tempered.

Ohio polls closed half an hour ago, nothing on the front pages but stuff trickling in here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/H/15/district.html

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And the next round of polls just closed. This will be some biggies.

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I'm off to watch the results and discussions with Dagmaraka.......

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Sits down on couch between Ebrown and Sozobe.

Sozobe turns in disgust

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No, no, I've still got this killer cold.

Oh you mean at your appearance! Whoa...!

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In From NZ source re exit polls - amy be the same as above?? But still, here 'tis:

NEWSFLASH: First Exit Poll Results Favour Kerry

BUSH IS WINNING IN...
Nevada
Kerry 48 Bush 50

Colorado
Kerry 46 Bush 53

North Carolina
Kerry 49 Bush 51

KERRY IS WINNING IN...
Pennsylvannia
Kerry 54 Bush 45

Ohio
Kerry 50 Bush 49

Florida
Kerry 50 Bush 49

Michigan
Kerry 51 Bush 47

New Mexico
Kerry 50 Bush 48

Wisconsin
Kerry 51 Bush 46

At first blush - if these results prove accurate - then Kerry
will have won the election carrying both Ohio and Florida by
a nose and Pennsylvannia, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Michigan
relatively comfortably.

However with Florida and Ohio both separated by only one point
(and noting that in exit polls in 2000 Gore won Florida by three
points) nothing will be certain for some time yet.

Florida has 27 electoral college votes and Ohio 20 electoral
college votes. In order to win a candidate needs to win at least
270 votes. (For further information on the electoral college
system see...http://www.electoral-vote.com)

While polling places officially close in some Eastern states
at approximately 1pm NZ Time, in several states all those queing
as of that time will still be allowed to vote. And with two,
three and four hour queues reported in some states it is probable
that voting will not be completed in some parts of the Eastern
United States (and particularly in democratic leaning counties
in Ohio and Florida) till as late as 10pm or 11pm.

Therefore, unless Kerry wins an early lead in sufficient states
to make Ohio and Florida irrelevant, there is likely to be a
very long night of counting ahead.

(continuing...)

(Their sources and url :EDITOR'S NOTE: Scoop will be providing running newsflashes of
breaking news from the US elections today. To kick the day off
we have some leaked exit poll results which come via http://democraticunderground.com
via http://dailykos.com via http://slate.com (all of which will
be good sources of news this afternoon.) For the latest Scoops
on the US Elections see... http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/index.html#sow

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AArgh - same as ebrown's - via slate

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Results! Election night'04 ... your armchair expert analysis

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