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FINAL COUNTDOWN FOR USA ELECTION 2008

 
 
Foxfyre
 
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:09 am
Okay, the conventions are over and both candidates are in the final stretch to convince the American people who should be their next President and which party should control the Congress.

According to the current polls, the two candidates are statistically tied.

Post excerpts and links to interesting commentary, appropriate cartoons, and take your best shots to defend your candidate.

May the best man win.

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Type: Discussion • Score: 29 • Views: 68,213 • Replies: 1,882

 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:15 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

May the best man win.


I vote for that. Go McCain. And Palin, she is a man too. Some of the best men are women.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:16 am
http://media.ft.com/cms/250488a0-7770-11dd-be24-0000779fd18c.jpg

http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/gm080505.jpg
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  4  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:16 am
@Foxfyre,
I'm sorry to have to point out to you, but according to the current polls, Obama is in the lead - not statistically tied.

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png

Obama is in the lead by an average of almost 5 points in the national polling.

On the state polling level, he's far ahead - at this point, if he wins every state that he's currently leading by more then 3, and McCain wins every state that HE'S leading by more then 3, then Obama only has to win one state out of CO, FL, OH, or VA in order to win the election. Not too shabby.

Cycloptichorn
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:19 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Your little Pollster buddies are very slow in spotting trends... give them 3 or 4 days to catch up and post your squiggly lines with dots again.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:21 am
Could be Cyclop. but we only have two days post-Palin speech and one day post-McCain speech. Probably need a few days for it all to shake out. The RCP average has Obama up 3.8 today. Rasmussen has him up by 1.0 this morning.

I don't doubt that he does have an edge though.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:21 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo, As a matter of fact, those contested states that went republican during the last election are now leaning Obama. I still don't have confidence in the American People that they understand all of the lies and innuendos passed on by the republican convention, but the delegates ate them up without questioning their veracity - and members of the party parroted the same lies when they were interviewed by the media. Makes one wonder about the American electorate.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:23 am
I'll post this links periodically as the discussions will (hopefully) focus on the actual issues in the next weeks. This site has a pretty good collection of all the candidate quotes, positions, and votes and I notice they just added Sarah Palin too.

http://www.ontheissues.org/John_McCain.htm
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:24 am
@Foxfyre,
Ras has him up 2, 48-46. Gotta go with the 'counting leaners' numbers, as that's the one everyone always uses when figuring out charts.

I think that McCain will get a small bounce out of the convention, but not enough to catch Obama. I agree that we will have to wait till next week to see where the numbers are at. But it's not accurate to say that they are tied, for according to the data, they are not. Obama is FAR ahead in state polling, and McCain's bounce probably won't touch that too much.

Cycloptichorn
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:28 am
@Cycloptichorn,
A president's pension is currently $191,300 per year, until he is 80 years old.

Assuming the next president lives to age 80.
Sen. McCain would receive ZERO pension as he would reach 80 at the end of two terms as president.
Sen. Obama would be retired for 26 years after two terms and would receive $4,973,800 in pension.

It would certainly benefit the taxpayers to elect McCain in November.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:35 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Ras has him up 2, 48-46. Gotta go with the 'counting leaners' numbers, as that's the one everyone always uses when figuring out charts.

I think that McCain will get a small bounce out of the convention, but not enough to catch Obama. I agree that we will have to wait till next week to see where the numbers are at. But it's not accurate to say that they are tied, for according to the data, they are not. Obama is FAR ahead in state polling, and McCain's bounce probably won't touch that too much.

Cycloptichorn


Anything within the margin of error is statistically tied. And I did use the term statistically tied, not tied.

Actually that's a good place to be in the final countdown as the winner is now far more likely to be chosen on the issues than on celebrity status.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:37 am
@Foxfyre,
Hmm, well, in many of the recent polls, Obama is winning outside of the margin of error; and there is no margin of error in a composite poll of polls.

In the state polling, he's certainly far ahead, I think we can both agree on that. Right?

Cycloptichorn
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:38 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Hmm, well, in many of the recent polls, Obama is winning outside of the margin of error; and there is no margin of error in a composite poll of polls.

In the state polling, he's certainly far ahead, I think we can both agree on that. Right?

Cycloptichorn


I don't know. How much state polling data do you have since both conventions closed?
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:41 am
@Foxfyre,
Sigh. Not much. But does that matter? At this time, Obama is far ahead in the state polls. If new ones come out, that could change.

But I doubt it. If you go to pollster.com, you will see that they break down the 'lead' states into two categories: strong leads and 'leans.' Obama's number of states with 'strong' leads is far, far higher then McCain - 231 electoral votes to 115 electoral votes. Those states are not going to change b/c of the convention, on either side.

As for the 'leans,' its' the opposite: 29 O to 64 McC. These could change but it would have to be a big change in order to make them flip to McCain.

At this point it's entirely fair to say, even before we see the post-convention polling, that McCain is still WAY BEHIND in electoral votes. He literally has to win every state he's leading in right now, plus EVERY CONTESTED STATE in order to win the election. That's a tough row to hoe.

Cycloptichorn
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:43 am
@Cycloptichorn,
The latest RCP battleground states has Obama up by an average of 3.8 but doesn't indicate whether that is within the margin of error. We'll look at it again in a few days and see if there has been any movement.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/battleground.html

I don't know how Pollster.com gathers its information. They do ask for an awful lot of anonymous on line voting but no clue whether that is what is reflected in their statistics. The AOL straw poll had McCain ahead of Obama by more than 2 to 1 this morning, and I don't believe that is the true picture for a minute.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:48 am
@Foxfyre,
Pollster.com uses averages of actual polls taken, not online open-poll voting. Click on the individual states and it will take you to the polling data for each state as well as a graph.

Cycloptichorn
Foxfyre
 
  3  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 10:57 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Pollster.com uses averages of actual polls taken, not online open-poll voting. Click on the individual states and it will take you to the polling data for each state as well as a graph.

Cycloptichorn


Where do you see that? Where they use averages I mean. I couldn't find anything about that on the website; just a page that might explain it that is apparently under construction. I don't know for sure but assumed they do straw polling only which could be why I don't see their polls included in RCP averages or with other examples of polling data or cited in the media. I could be wrong of course and I have never looked into it.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 11:01 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclo, I know my info is a few days old, but that's the same info I have; that Obama is way ahead in electoral votes, and the toss-up states are leaning Obama that previously voted republican.

That's the only reason why the republicans keep pushing the popular vote numbers, because that's the only way they can say McCain is "even" with Obama.

ROFL
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 11:01 am
Best cartoon of the day:
http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/sbr090508dAPR.jpg
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 5 Sep, 2008 11:02 am
@Foxfyre,
The democrats realize that they can not compete with McCain & Palin
so they and the elite liberal media are out to destroy McCain & Palin.

The worst the left can muster is on the way...
 

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