NEWSFLASH: Exit Polls Say Kerry & Credit Women
Full exit polling results from the exit polling consortium set
up for this election have been released for Ohio (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297182/)
and Florida. The results confirm the unofficial results posted
earlier on Scoop.co.nz and several other websites. Namely narrow
victories to John Kerry, and consequently an overall victory
to John Kerry. And interestingly the results suggest that Kerry
will owe his victory - if it comes - to female voters.
In Florida (where the results have just been withdrawn from view
till 2pm NZT, presumably because polling has been extended) Kerry
is winning among women voters by 52% to 47% and Bush is winning
among male voters by 51% to 48%. Because slightly more women
than men appear to be voting, 54% to 46% Kerry wins the state
by a small nose.
In Ohio the situation is far more straightforward Kerry wins
among both men and women voters with 51% and 53% support respectively.
Again slightly more women than men seem to have voted and so
the lead in Ohio on the basis of the exit polls is more of a
half head than a nose.
So far as this reporter is aware the exit poll results are being
published in full for the first time this year.
The polls provide an incredible insight into the motivations
of US voters. Voters are broken down by party identification,
age, sex, religion, race and income level and asked a range of
questions on their motivations for voting. For the political
junkie they are a must read see.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297118/
for an index to all the exit polling results.
For example in the Ohio exit polls you can see that Kerry is
winning 60% of the independent vote (those without party affiliation.)
and it is because of this vote that he has won. You can also
find out interesting things like the fact that in Ohio more single
woman voted for Kerry and more married women voted for Bush.
Interestingly a majority of voters in Ohio appear to have supported
the decision to go to war in Iraq, and oppose gay marriage, but
still a majority appear to have voted for Kerry.
The latest exit poll data supports the final results predictions
of John Zogby (
http://www.zogby.com/ ) the left-leaning pollster
who came closest to getting the 2000 election right.
Zogby is picking a Kerry victory by 311 electoral votes to 213
with 14 votes (in Colorado and Nevada) too close to call. He
is calling both Floida and Ohio to Kerry. However on the basis
of Zogby's calculations Kerry can actually afford to lose both
of these very tight races and can still win provided he picks
up either Colorado or Nevada. More significantly he can afford
to lose Florida and can still win comfortably with Ohio meaning
that a result is significantly more likely tonight as if any
race turns to chaos it is likely to be Florida's.
Interestingly on the basis of the exit polls the markets are
now punting on a Kerry win. According to Bloomberg:
" Traders reversed bets that George W. Bush would win the U.S.
presidential election after Web sites posted what they said were
exit polls showing John Kerry leading in battleground states
including Florida and Ohio.
Contracts betting Bush would win plunged to 28.5 from 57 and
Kerry futures jumped to 71 from 43, according to Intrade, an
electronic exchange based in Dublin known by its Web site TradeSports.com.
Winning contracts climb to 100, paying out $10 on Intrade. Losing
contracts fall to zero and expire worthless."
(continuing.)
