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Results! Election night'04 ... your armchair expert analysis

 
 
kelticwizard
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:19 pm
E Brown: Cubans are strongly, strongly Republican. the only Hispanic group that is.

Overall, the Hispanic vote might be somewhat less pro-Kerry than pro-Gore.
0 Replies
 
princesspupule
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:21 pm
kelticwizard wrote:
Princess, Kerry just won Pennsylvania, (CNN).

Now, the pressure is on Bush to win both Florida and Ohio-and maybe he doesn't even win then.


Woohoo! <Smacking a wet one on your cheek>
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kelticwizard
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:23 pm
Surprise! Problems in Florida.

Seems they can't count the absentee ballots until Thursday, even though other states have more absentee ballots and will be counting them today.

I wonder if the "absentee ballots" include the early ballots that were cast, of which there were over a million in Florida.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:26 pm
kelticwizard wrote:
Surprise! Problems in florida.

Seems they can't count the absentee ballots until Thursday, even though other states have more absentee ballots and will be counting them today.

I wonder if the "absentee ballots" include the early ballots that were cast, of which there were over a million in Florida.
Laughing Laughing Laughing
Raise your hand if you're surprised. Laughing Laughing Laughing

(Early ones were counted, btw)

Did Nimh go to bed? For real?
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:28 pm
kelticwizard wrote:
E Brown: Cubans are strongly, strongly Republican. the only Hispanic group that is.

Overall, the Hispanic vote might be somewhat less pro-Kerry than pro-Gore.


Keltic, Ya lo se (I know that),

However many predict (and early exit polls supported) that Bush would lose Cuban votes because they are pissed at his new policy restricting their travel and ability to send money to family in Cuba.

We will see...
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:32 pm
Well, on a bright note (he popped back into the thread), I see that Nevada is coloured light blue on yahoo ... hadnt expected that.

I guess this, then, would be the time to point out that if Kerry wins all the states that are now lightblue there (thus incl NH, MN, IA and NV), then he needs to pick off 16 more EVs still from the states that now are still coloured light-red. Either Ohio or Florida will do that, of course, but so could other combinations.

Yeah, this seems like a good moment to point out that if he really gets all those lightblue states, he could lose OH and FL and still win - if he picks off two of the light-red states. Unfortunately, it cant be New Mexico - not enough EVs. Its gotta be the other two: Wisconsin and Colorado. (WI and NM would get ya a tie in the EC).

Problem is that although Kerry's currently still behind the 4-5% in CO that he also is in FL or OH, he is a whopping 9 points behind in WI. Of course, thats just with a quarter of precincts reporting.

<goes off seeing if he can find some other silver lining perhaps>
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:32 pm
He was talking about freeing Cuba from Castro from the stump while he was here. Who knows, maybe he will. Shocked
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:36 pm
Fedral wrote:
princesspupule wrote:
There's no way Kerry can win at this point, if the projections are all accurate. Unless he takes just about every state int he west, which isn't gonna happen. Crying or Very sad


I'm a Bush supporter and I don't see where you are getting your numbers..

I'm still trying to figure out how GWB is going to pull this one out.

Heh - a conversation in which both sides doubt themselves. See, thats the kind I like, its more my thing. Love ya both

(Fedral is one of my favourite posters I'll never agree with)
0 Replies
 
princesspupule
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:38 pm
nimh wrote:
Well, on a bright note (he popped back into the thread), I see that Nevada is coloured light blue on yahoo ... hadnt expected that.

I guess this, then, would be the time to point out that if Kerry wins all the states that are now lightblue there (thus incl NH, MN, IA and NV), then he needs to pick off 16 more EVs still from the states that now are still coloured light-red. Either Ohio or Florida will do that, of course, but so could other combinations.

Yeah, this seems like a good moment to point out that if he really gets all those lightblue states, he could lose OH and FL and still win - if he picks off two of the light-red states. Unfortunately, it cant be New Mexico - not enough EVs. Its gotta be the other two: Wisconsin and Colorado. (WI and NM would get ya a tie in the EC).

Problem is that although Kerry's currently still behind the 4-5% in CO that he also is in FL or OH, he is a whopping 9 points behind in WI. Of course, thats just with a quarter of precincts reporting.

<goes off seeing if he can find some other silver lining perhaps>


Damn, damn, damn... the 199 included CA! I should've KNOWN THAT! And only 7 left unreported whatsoever. Kelticwizard and Fedral raised my hopes prematurely. Embarrassed
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:39 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Did Nimh go to bed? For real?

LOL!

Unh-huh ... not quite yet. Razz

OCCOM BILL wrote:
Martinez has dropped to dead even Shocked
(Nimh, that could be a very positive tell for your side.)

Dunno, really ... how much use it is still, I mean. The Coburn, DeMint, Isakson and Bunning wins alone would be enough to guarantee the Reps a continued control of the senate ...

(Don't you people know you're better off with a deadlock between yer branches of government?)
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ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:40 pm
ABC just projected Bush will win FL.

Damn.

It all comes down to Ohio.
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squinney
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:41 pm
According to MSNBC numbers, it's down to CO, NM, FL, NH, AK, HA and OH.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5653531/


Kerry took DC by 90%!!!???
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Fedral
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:42 pm
nimh wrote:

(Fedral is one of my favourite posters I'll never agree with)


LOL Love you too nimh.

Although we almost never agree, I still love and respect most everyone here.

I hope that after this is all over, we can drain some of the bile and invective that has accumulated over the past year or so.

BTW... My state (Florida) has just been called for President Bush <phew>
0 Replies
 
shewolfnm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:43 pm
kelticwizard wrote:
E Brown: Cubans are strongly, strongly Republican. the only Hispanic group that is.

Overall, the Hispanic vote might be somewhat less pro-Kerry than pro-Gore.


I know I picked this quote up later in the thread and it has lost its meaning by now.. But when i see people ( immigrants that is ) who are behind the republican party.. I always ask myself.... Why Confused
The republican party , no matter what they may say at first , has always been the ones who support border PATROL and are the ones who make it harder to become " american" and are quick to ship you out if you are not on paper as an american. Unless of course, you work in thier factories...
But that is a diffrent topic all together. Confused
Im not attacking people who choose to be republican in thier votes, Im always just curious as to why people would choose to employ people who are against the very thing they are working for.
0 Replies
 
squinney
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:43 pm
My map http://www.mockelection.org/electionmap/ (I cleared it and played along tonight) shows Bush at 261 and Kerry 250 before AK, HA and OH.
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:45 pm
nimh....lots of people see it that way, but I see deadlock = gridlock. I'm really optimistic some good stuff will get done in the next 4 years.
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princesspupule
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:48 pm
nimh wrote:
Fedral wrote:
princesspupule wrote:
There's no way Kerry can win at this point, if the projections are all accurate. Unless he takes just about every state int he west, which isn't gonna happen. Crying or Very sad


I'm a Bush supporter and I don't see where you are getting your numbers..

I'm still trying to figure out how GWB is going to pull this one out.

Heh - a conversation in which both sides doubt themselves. See, thats the kind I like, its more my thing. Love ya both

(Fedral is one of my favourite posters I'll never agree with)


The only thing I know is that I know nothing, nimh. Embarrassed I can't even swear we aren't all imagined by someone/something else's mind, the product of an evil scientist probing a nerve in some brain to make it create and believe this reality (it's possible, however unlikely, you can't prove it's not true, or can you? But, I digress.) I looked, and counted, but doubted my count which was done on the fly and through a haze of 2 beers in about 2 hours... I should NOT have doubted my ability to tally up numbers, I am an accounting major after all, goddammit. Twisted Evil But an unworthy one...
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shewolfnm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:49 pm
JustWonders wrote:
nimh....lots of people see it that way, but I see deadlock = gridlock. I'm really optimistic some good stuff will get done in the next 4 years.


I agree..
Mostly because I would hate to see it get worse. Sad
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:51 pm
Burr is still leading Bowles in NC as well ... And Vitter (R) is at 51% in Louisiana, with 95% of precincts reporting ... means he might scrape through straight in the first round.

Its nice that Salazar is leading Coors 51% to 47% in CO tho, w/46% of precincts reporting ... If Kerry goes down, Salazar is going to be one of the bright new hopes for the party when the Democrats go reinventing themselves, I tell ya - he and Obama, however different they are.

It looks like Specter is being given a run for his money in PA too, he's got just 50% of the vote at the moment, his Democratic challenger 45% ... dunno how I feel about that tho. You guys need men like Specter.

Overall, bottom line, the sad truth is that even with FL and SD still a complete tossup and no data for Alaska yet, the Reps already look like winning 52 seats at least in the Senate.

I knew it would have been a tough thing to pull off, getting the Senate back - it would have meant winning every single Senate race where they were thought to stand a chance for the Dems - but to see that the Reps now still could end up with 55 seats, oouph ...
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shewolfnm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Nov, 2004 10:52 pm
CANDIDATE VOTE % EV*
Kerry, Dem 48% 188
Bush, GOP (i) 51% 210
Nader, Ind 0%
Precincts: 61%
Updated: 11-02 11:49 PM ET
*Electoral Votes
0 Replies
 
 

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