monitoring Trump and relevant contemporary events

Gov. Sam Brownback’s former commerce secretary has ended his congressional campaign days after The Kansas City Star published an investigation into state contracts during his tenure.

The Star, in a story published online Thursday evening, identified at least nine associates of Antonio Soave who landed state contracts for consulting and marketing services during the 18 months he ran the Kansas Department of Commerce. The next day, Brownback, who had repeatedly denied forcing Soave to resign, acknowledged that he had terminated Soave’s cabinet post in June.

The consensus take on the sweeping wins for the Democrats in the Old Dominion is that this is a repudiation of President Donald Trump, his policies, and his political tone.

Not exactly.

What the election results really prove without a doubt is that Virginia is now undeniably blue. The Democrats have won the state three straight times in presidential elections, four of the last five governor's elections, and the once solid red state even has two Democrats representing it in the U.S. Senate.

The reasons this has happened are a series of demographic and political factors that were in motion long before Donald Trump became a candidate.

On the demographic side, Virginia's non-white population grew from 22 percent of the population to 28 percent between 2009 and 2013. And the population is also getting younger. The size of the population ages 18-29 has jumped from just 15 percent to 19 percent since 2009. Both younger voters and non-white Americans are simply less statistically likely to vote for any Republican.

[That is not to say that the Trump team can just brush off Virginia's election results as a non-event. The excellent state-wide organization and get out the vote efforts definitely played a role in increasing Northam's margin of victory and swinging some of the close House of Delegate races. Those are key lessons the Democrats will surely try to bring to other states.

And if there is a silent army of Trump supporters out there, it clearly wasn't big or strong enough to stem the anti-Trump tide in Virginia.

No, Virginia cannot be considered a red or even a swing state anymore. The White House can only hope the story is different in states that aren't undergoing Virginia's unique series of changes.

As part of a larger wave of Democratic wins on Election Day 2017, Democrats picked up two seats in special elections held for Georgia’s House of Delegates.

Deborah Gonzales won House District 117 with 53 percent of the vote and Jonathan Wallace won House District 119 with 56 percent of the vote. Both seats are in the Athens area and both were vacant, hence the special elections. But not only were the two seats previously held by Republican incumbents, they were uncontested in the 2016 elections.

Superior Democratic recruiting in these kind of races is both a cause and a consequence of a national political environment that is now Democratic leaning. It’s much easier to get people excited about running for office when the climate is favorable, so the uptick in recruiting is itself a result of Donald Trump’s unpopularity. But it’s also the case that no matter how unpopular Trump is, you can’t win elections without fielding candidates. In 2016, Democrats didn’t have candidates in these races. In 2017 they did, and they both won.

The result in HD-117 should be particularly alarming for Republicans. Mitt Romney won it by a crushing 54-44 margin back in 2012. Donald Trump fared much worse than that, winning by just 49-46, but nonetheless winning. That’s a broadly similar pattern to what Jon Ossoff faced earlier this year in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District. But while Ossoff failed to improve on Hillary Clinton’s narrow loss, Gonzales ran 7 points stronger than Clinton and flipped what had been an overwhelmingly Republican district as recently as five years ago.

In terms of practical consequences, the Georgia legislature remains overwhelmingly Republican, so losing two seats isn’t a big deal. But with Georgia as a whole being a state where Trump ran considerably weaker than Romney, Democrats are eager to take a big swing at the 2018 gubernatorial election and — if they can win it — have more influence on the post-2020 redistricting process and thus a better shot at the legislature. Special elections only tell you so much, but tonight’s wins bring Georgia Democrats that much more hope of winning a year from now.

Ashley Bennett had never run for office before. But when a local politician made a sexist joke, she decided to try to unseat him.

John Carman, a Republican member of the Atlantic County Board of Chosen Freeholders, a county legislative body in New Jersey, posted a meme on his Facebook page in January making fun of the Women’s March. "Will the woman's protest be over in time for them to cook dinner?" it read, according to Amy S. Rosenberg at the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Dozens of women showed up at a January freeholder meeting to confront Carman. One brought a box of macaroni and cheese and told Carman to “cook his own damn dinner,” Rosenberg reports. Carman refused to apologize, saying, “the women I'm surrounded by, my family, my friends, my colleagues are all strong, confident women, women who are sure of themselves. They didn’t get offended by this."

Bennett, a psychiatric emergency screener, attended the meeting but walked out when she heard Carman’s response. "I walked out because you had the entire time to sit and collect your thoughts, and hear what people were saying, and instead of apologizing and saying you could do better, you disrespect people and say the people you surround yourself are strong," she said at the time. "There are a lot of people who are strong."

And Bennett, a Democrat, decided to take action. She ran for Carman’s seat on the board, becoming part of a wave of women running for office following the 2016 election. On Tuesday, she defeated Carman, who had also angered constituents when he was photographed wearing a patch depicting the state of New Jersey partially covered by a confederate flag.

Bennett’s win was one of many victories for female candidates on Tuesday. A record number of women were elected to the Virginia House of Delegates, for instance, including the first Latina women, first Asian-American woman, and first trans woman to serve in that state legislative body, according to EMILY’s List.

“People want change,” Bennett told Rosenberg. “I am beyond speechless and incredibly grateful to serve my community. I never imaged I would run for office.”

Guys, stop riling up an idiot and let us get this thread back on track.

U.S. Subpoenas Icahn Over Biofuel Policy While Trump Adviser

Federal investigators have issued subpoenas for information on Carl Icahn’s efforts to change biofuel policy while serving as an adviser to President Donald Trump, according to regulatory filings.

The U.S. Attorney’s office for the Southern District of New York is “seeking production of information” pertaining to Icahn’s activities regarding the Renewable Fuel Standard, according to a Form 10-Q that Icahn Enterprises LP filed on Friday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The investigators also want information on Icahn’s role as an adviser to the president, the document says.

Yup. It doesn't really matter though as the House bill stands about a zero chance of ever passing the Senate. It won't even be put up for a vote in the Senate. Instead, the Senate is writing their own bill, which probably won't pass either, but definitely won't contain a huge amount of the **** that the House bill does.

Cycloptichorn

who were some of the less obvious winners -- and losers! -- on Tuesday?

WINNERS

* Ralph Northam: In both the Democratic primary earlier this year and again Tuesday night, Northam overperformed expectations. There were lots and lots of Northam doubters in Democratic circles -- he's too boring! He won't sell in northern Virginia! -- I talked to in the final 72 hours of the race. But Northam's country doctor routine worked its magic again. Northam may well be the most underrated politician of the year. And kudos to his campaign team -- led by manager Brad Komar -- for running a race that was both true to Northam's centrist roots and a winner.
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* Terry McAuliffe: The outgoing Virginia governor is a popular presence in the state and Northam, generally speaking, ran on a message of continuing the McAuliffe legacy. It worked. And McAuliffe, because he's McAuliffe, was quick to take credit for it in an interview with CNN even before the results were known. If you don't think Tuesday's results in Virginia don't make it more likely McAuliffe runs for president in 2020, you don't know Terry.


* Doug Jones: If there was any question about whether national Democrats should fund Jones' special Senate election race later this year against Roy Moore in Alabama, Tuesday night's results probably took care of that. Given the activation of the Democratic base -- particularly non-white voters -- and Moore's divisiveness, Jones looks like less of a long shot today than he did Tuesday.

* Joe Biden: The former vice president was very active on the stump for 2017 Democratic candidates -- including Northam, Murphy and Jones in Alabama. During a visit to Virginia for Northam in mid-October, Biden told the crowd: "You have to win to ... give people hope we are not falling into this know-nothing pit." And, in the wake of the election results Tuesday night, Biden tweeted this: "A resounding defeat tonight for President Trump. Voters around the country rejected the ugly politics we have seen this past year. Instead, they chose candidates who unite and inspire us." Sounds a lot like a line from a Biden 2020 speech, no?


* Donna Brazile: If Northam had lost or Democrats more broadly would have underwhelmed at the ballot box on Tuesday, the story of Democratic division -- and Brazile's new book that lays much of it bare -- would be the only thing that people would be talking about. Now, there's a much better narrative for Democrats out there and the inconsistencies between Brazile's book and her recent public statements about the campaign are likely to recede into the background.

* NoVa suburbs: The winning formula for Democrats in Virginia is now shockingly simple: Run up the score -- bigly -- in northern Virginia. Northam beat Gillespie by 212,000 votes in Arlington (+52,000), Fairfax (+137,000) and Loudoun (+23,000). His statewide margin? Two-hundred and thirty-two thousand votes.

* Tom Perriello: The former congressman lost his primary challenge to Northam earlier this year. Rather than remain embittered and sitting out the rest of the race, Perriello signed out with an political organization -- Win Virginia -- that aimed to reduce Republicans' 66-34 edge in the state
Assembly. Led by Perriello, Democrats did much more than that; a real possibility exists that they will hold 50 seats in the Assembly when all the votes are counted. That's a stunning achievement.

* Virginia Department of Elections: The vote count was amazingly fast. And the website allows you to search back to 1789 in its election results data. I mean, that rules.


LOSERS

* Donald Trump: The President tweeted shortly after Gillespie's loss insisting that if the GOP nominee had only hewed closer to him, the results might have been different. There's simply no empirical evidence in exit polling or the raw data that suggests that contention to be true. Half of the Virginia voters said Trump was a factor in their vote on Tuesday, with twice as many saying they wanted to send Trump a message of opposition as said they wanted to send him a message of support. In places like Loudoun and Chesterfield counties -- exurban and suburban, respectively -- Gillespie badly underperformed past GOP nominees. Adjusting for all variables, it's hard not to see how that difference is primarily attributable to Trump.

* "Trumpism without Trump": In the hours leading up to polls closing in Virginia, the idea -- floated by former Trump White House chief strategist Steve Bannon -- that Gillespie would prove you could run and win on Trump's idea if you took Trump's personality out of the equation was rampant. Then Gillespie got trounced. What Tuesday night in Virginia showed is that most voters outside of the GOP base simply don't distinguish between support for Trump personally and support for Trump's agenda. It's all the same to them. And it's bad.

* Chris Christie: The election results in New Jersey were a sort of final nail in Christie's political coffin. Christie's lieutenant governor -- Kim Guadagno -- was swamped under by the historic unpopularity of Christie. Just 22% of New Jersey voters approved of how Christie has handled his job. Among those who strongly disapproved of Christie, Murphy won 81% of the vote. Guadagno tried to run away from Christie and his toxic legacy in the state but it didn't work. Christie now faces a political future filled with not-so-good options. He almost certainly can't run for office in New Jersey for a very long time to come and his close association with Trump has hurt him badly in the eyes of GOP establishment types. Christie's best hope is some sort of gig in the White House -- a real possibility given the staff carousel in the Trump administration.

* Paul LePage: The Maine governor repeatedly vetoed efforts by the state legislature to take federal Medicaid expansion dollars under Obamacare. On Tuesday, a ballot measure passed overwhelmingly that will allow 80,000 more Mainers to join Medicaid. LePage is term-limited out of office next year anyway but has repeatedly floated the idea of running for Senate or some other office. Tuesday's results throw a monkey wrench into those plans. LePage, as of Wednesday morning, was saying he would refuse to implement Medeicaid expansion even after Tuesday's vote. Which is odd.

* Bernie Sanders: The Vermont independent weighed into the Virginia Democratic primary for Perriello. After Perriello lost, Sanders disappeared. He didn't endorse Northam, who was more centrist-minded than Perriello (and Sanders). "Our Revolution," the political organization that grew out of Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign, didn't get involved for Northam either. That's not a good look Wednesday morning, with Democrats celebrating their best election night since 2012.

* The Republican brand: In Virginia, just 30% of the electorate identified as Republicans. In New Jersey, it was just 29%. That gave self-identifying Democrats a double digit edge in each of those states -- suggesting that Republicans didn't turn out to vote or just didn't want to tell an exit pollster they identified with the Republican party. Either way, it's not good if you are a Republican strategist trying to figure out how to win in 2018.

* Barbara Comstock: Comstock has held the 10th district, which includes much of the affluent suburbs stretching west from Washington, DC since 2014. The size of the Northam victory in and around Comstock -- he carried her seat by 13 points -- has to make her one of Democrats' top targets heading into 2018. Comstock might want to rethink her decision to pass on a challenge to Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine next year.

. At 9, Sean Hannity took over and slipped in a comment about why said Republican losses don't really count:

Those results in New Jersey and Virginia—not states Donald Trump won.


Laura Ingraham's show began at 10, and Ingraham used the majority of her hour on segments about the armed civilian who attempted to intervene during this weekend's Texas shooting, the question of why liberals are "so offended and bothered by prayer," disgraced O.J Simpson detective Mark Fuhrman's opinions about gun control, and Trump's achievements in "confronting evil." She finally made it to Virginia at 10:50, whereupon viewers learned that Gillespie lost because he actually didn't imitate Trump enough:

Gillespie never jumped on board the Trump train. He's an old Bush hand. I think he gave it his best shot. He is who he is—not a populist conservative.

Later in the segment, Ingraham noted that Democrats will overreact to Northam's win because "they need something to be excited about," adding that, and I quote, "Hillary's emails!"

Fox News!

Not really. There was some reasonable language regarding the classification of S-corps, but the vast majority of it was a tortured attempt at justifying tax cuts for groups who literally don't need them. It had no clear goal and isn't 'reform' in any sense whatsoever. It doesn't simplify the code. It gets rid of important deductions for middle-class families with zero justification for doing so, other than giving the wealthy and corporations a handout. It has language defining an embryo as a 'human' in a stealth attempt to weaken or outlaw abortion.

It's a ******* stinker from top to bottom.

Cycloptichorn

Last night, voters in Virginia elected the first two Latina women, the first Asian woman, the first openly lesbian woman, and the first openly trans woman to House of Delegates seats. In Minnesota, Andrea Jenkins became the first openly transgender person of color to win public office, where she’ll be serving the fine people of Minneapolis on the city council. Seattle elected Jenny Durkan, its first openly lesbian mayor and the first woman mayor of the city since the 1920s. Crystal Murillo, a 23-year-old recent grad, proved that young people are in this and took home a city council seat in populous Aurora, Colorado, defeating a 79-year-old incumbent. Democrat Vi Lyles will be the first Black woman mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina, a key city in a major battleground state. And Sheila Oliver is now New Jersey’s first-ever Black lieutenant governor.

Women voters also turned out. In the Virginia gubernatorial race, White women with college degrees favored Democrat Ralph Northam by 16 points. In a huge shift from the 2016 election, married women came out for Northam by 10 points compared to the one-point lead they gave Trump just a year prior in the state. Over two-thirds of voters under 30 went for Northam, compared to 45% who voted for Democrat Terry McAuliffe in 2013. And Black women continued to make it rain, with 91% of them voting for Northam.

Make no mistake: Women came to play on Election Day 2017 as candidates, organizers, and voters. And it paid off.


Of course, there’s still plenty of work to be done ahead of the midterm election that takes place November 6, 2018. The Democratic Party is still a hot ass mess. Republicans are trying to put tax burdens on middle-income Americans, take away our reproductive rights, continue their attacks on undocumented immigrants, and so much more. In the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, the overall majority of White women still voted for Republican candidates. Trump is, well, Trump.

1. Get involved with grassroots campaign efforts for races at all levels.

Yes, federal races are shiny and exciting and important. But chances are there are some incredible local and state candidates who need your help. Nothing beats getting into the community and knocking on doors. The earlier these campaigns can mobilize large numbers of volunteers, the better.
Additionally, candidates aren’t the only things on ballots. In Maine on Election Day, for example, residents voted to expand Medicaid in the state. By getting involved early, you can help decide how these measures are written on the ballot and turn out people to the polls.

2. Put your money where your mouth is.
Many first-time candidates face the issue of not having support from their political parties. It’s a catch-22: Parties don’t want to endorse candidates until they’ve shown some fundraising and political prowess, but many candidates can’t reach their fundraising goals or meet key people without the backing of the party. Even if you’re in the bluest of areas, you can help women anywhere in the country.

3. Have the difficult conversations.
Here’s the truth: You’re not going to expand anyone’s worldview or change a person’s long-held opinion overnight. But women, particularly white women, are in a place to talk to one another and to their loved ones about these issues. By starting now and discussing topics like reproductive rights, gun control, and police brutality as well as systemic issues like sexism, racism, and homophobia, we’re more likely to see change by the time Election Day 2018 rolls around in a year. Start small and work up towards the big things.

Re “In a Democracy, There Can Be No Bystanders” (Op-Ed, Nov. 7):

If Jeff Flake truly believes that “to have a vital democracy, there can be no bystanders,” then he and other Republican senators who hold similar views on the dangers of Donald Trump should change their party affiliation to independent and caucus with the Democrats, placing that party in control of the Senate and giving the Democrats the power to restrain President Trump.

Mr. Flake and other Republicans could make a deal with the Democrats to use that change not to undermine their conservative beliefs; instead, by changing their affiliation, they would act to defend “the things we hold dear”: democracy itself.

Mr. Flake, action, not just words — as brave as they are — is required.

BILL MITCHELL, NEW YORK