The Pro Hillary Thread

reasoning logic wrote:

Both Trump and Hillary seem equally interested in bettering our society, That is why I support Bernie.

Ahahahahahahahahah! Too funny!

Don't know who wrote it...but she delivered it very effectively. This is me giving her credit.

I now return you to the 24 hour a day, 7 day a week, 365 day a year harangue trying to convince you that she's the devil and will take us all to hell.

Quote:

I now return you to the 24 hour a day, 7 day a week, 365 day a year harangue trying to convince you that she's the devil and will take us all to hell.

Deja vu?

I was proud of Hillary Clinton yesterday. Did you see that speech? I don't know what happened, but she finally focused and got it all out about why Donald Trump would be wrong for this country, why he would be dangerous, the ways in which he is deficient...it was a devastating takedown of the orange buffoon.

WASHINGTON — President Obama, after months of sitting on the sidelines of the rancorous contest to succeed him, is now ready to aggressively campaign for Hillary Clinton, starting with a formal endorsement of her candidacy as early as this week.

The White House is in active conversations with Mrs. Clinton’s campaign about how and where the president would be useful to her, according to senior aides to Mr. Obama.

Advisers say that the president, who sees a Democratic successor as critical to his legacy, is impatient to begin campaigning. They say he is taking nothing for granted.

“I want us to run scared the whole time,” Mr. Obama told a group of donors on Friday night in Miami.

It has been decades since a second-term president enjoyed the popularity to make him a potent force on the campaign trail and also an invitation from the candidate running to succeed him to be a major presence there.

Mr. Obama’s approval rating was at 50 percent in this month’s New York Times/CBS poll, and strategists close to Mrs. Clinton said they would be eager to have his participation as the general election unfolds. (In contrast, President George W. Bush’s approval rating was at 20 percent in a Gallup poll just before the November 2008 election, and he rarely appeared that year with Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican nominee.)

Mr. Obama is particularly enthusiastic, aides said, about taking on Mr. Trump. The Republican candidate has personally offended the president with his conduct on the campaign trail — Mr. Trump referred to a black supporter on Friday in one of his crowds as “my African-American” — and as the most visible champion of the “birther” conspiracy theories that falsely hold that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya rather than Hawaii.

The primary season started in cold, snowy Iowa and New Hampshire, and it essentially ends in sunny California.1 Today, six caucuses and primaries take place — the final super Tuesday of the year before the general election.

Although The Associated Press declared Hillary Clinton the presumptive Democratic nominee Monday night, based on her winning a majority of pledged delegates and superdelegates combined, Clinton will almost certainly clinch a majority of pledged delegates tonight. That’s important because it will indicate that she wasn’t just the choice of superdelegates; she also won millions more votes than Bernie Sanders. Clinton has 1,811 pledged delegates,2 just 215 short of the 2,026 necessary to reach a majority. She needs to win only 31 percent of the delegates up for grabs today to cross that threshold. Here’s a state-by-state look at Clinton’s and Sanders’s

New Jersey primary

Polls close: 8 p.m. EDT
126 delegates at stake
Open to independent3 voters

Surprisingly little ink has been spilled over the state with the ninth-largest delegate prize of all the caucuses and primaries in the nomination process. That’s because California is hogging much of the spotlight, but also because New Jersey just hasn’t been that competitive. Clinton has won the states surrounding New Jersey by no less than 12 percentage points. She leads the FiveThirtyEight polling average in New Jersey by 27 percentage points.

New Jersey’s Democratic electorate is diverse, and its white population is wealthy, and Clinton has done exceedingly well among black voters and wealthy white voters in the primary so far. African-Americans made up 23 percent of New Jersey primary voters in 2008, compared with 19 percent nationwide. Whites making more than $100,000 made up about 40 percent of white voters in 2008, while they were just 28 percent of white voters nationwide.4

Overall, my colleague Nate Silver’s demographic model5 has Clinton winning the race by 11.1 percentage points. If that holds, she’ll win about 70 delegates to Sanders’s 56 in the state.

New Mexico primary

Polls close: 9 p.m. EDT
34 delegates at stake
Closed to independent voters

If Clinton does well with Latinos (as we expect her to), then she’s going to do very well in New Mexico, though few delegates are at stake. Thirty-five percent of Democratic primary voters in the state were Latino in 2008, which was higher than in any other contest outside Puerto Rico. Indeed, the only state that came close was neighboring Texas, at 32 percent. Clinton cruised in Texas this year in part because she won Latino voters by 42 percentage points. She’s also likely to benefit from New Mexico’s closed primary, which does not allow independents to participate.

Nate’s demographic model has Clinton winning the state by 19.5 percentage points.6 That’s slightly less than her margin in a recent BWD Global poll, which had her ahead by 26 percentage points. A 19.5 percentage point victory would allow Clinton to earn about 20 delegates to Sanders’s 14 in New Mexico.

North Dakota caucuses

Doors close: 9 p.m. EDT
18 delegates at stake
Open to independent voters

You can’t draw up a better state for Sanders than this one. Just 5 percent of the state’s population is black or Latino; it’s not a primary but a caucus, where Sanders does quite well; and to top it off, independent voters are allowed to participate. The only real question is the margin of Sanders’s victory.

Nate’s demographic model has Sanders winning the caucus by 38.6 percentage points, which would be his largest margin in any contest since late March.

The bad news for Sanders is that so few delegates are at stake. Just eight other caucuses and primaries, out of 57, have fewer elected delegates than North Dakota. Even if Sanders beats Clinton by 38.6 points, he’ll probably win only about 12 delegates to Clinton’s six.

South Dakota primary

Polls close: 9 p.m. EDT
20 delegates at stake
Open to independent voters

Another state with few black and Latino voters that allows independents to participate in the contest? Check. The only big demographic difference between the Dakotas is that South Dakota is 9 percent American Indian, compared with 5 percent in North Dakota. These states could give us some insight into which candidate American Indians prefer in the Democratic primary.

Aside from that, the ethnic and racial makeups are mostly similar, and the Dakotas generally vote very similarly in presidential elections. Therefore, the states give us a test of the impact of having a caucus versus a primary this year. Eight years ago, when the then-closed7 South Dakota primary was held four months after the North Dakota open caucuses, the difference between the two was remarkable. Clinton won South Dakota by 11 percentage points and lost North Dakota by 25 percentage points.

Nate’s demographic model doesn’t expect a margin that wide this year. It predicts that Sanders will take South Dakota by 18.8 percentage points, which would get him 12 delegates to Clinton’s eight. I should note that a Targeted Persuasion survey taken at the end of May had Clinton up 50 percent to 47 percent, so maybe she’ll outperform demographic expectations.

Montana primary

Polls close: 10 p.m. EDT
21 delegates
Open to independent voters

Nate’s demographic model has Sanders winning Montana by 19 percentage points, nearly the same margin as in South Dakota. Sanders has won all the states around Montana by at least 10 percentage points. Eight years ago, Clinton, who generally has performed at or around her 2008 levels in the interior West into the Great Plains, lost the state by 16 percentage points.

But Sanders’s victories in those states (he averaged 66 percent of the vote among Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Utah and Wyoming) have netted him only 68 more delegates than Clinton. Compare that with the highly populated state of Florida, where Clinton won 64 percent of the vote and picked up an identical 68 more delegates than Sanders.

In Montana, Sanders will encounter the same issue, probably taking only about 12 delegates to Clinton’s nine.