80
   

When will Hillary Clinton give up her candidacy ?

 
 
oralloy
 
  -3  
Mon 9 May, 2016 10:54 pm
@Blickers,
Blickers wrote:
Yes, he did. And that might help a little. But Russia not only has a great amount of nuclear warheads, it also has a large amount of conventional forces. Russia's takeover will likely take the form of arming one faction in the country with arms, then having a civil war, then hekping Russia's supported faction win the conventionally fought civil war. Especially if Russia sneaks in some regular Russian troops, like they did in Ukraine. The invaded country doesn't want to start a nuclear war over what looks like just a civil war, and Russia gets it's Eastern European puppet in place.

The invaded country will know that they are being invaded, and that it is not a civil war. All they need to do is flatten Moscow and Leningrad and any victory that Russia achieves will be Pyrrhic.


Blickers wrote:
That's why NATO is so important-to prevent this process from occurring.

I agree, but so far we are not doing a good job of it.

If we want to keep Putin out of the Baltics, we are going to have to either heat up the war in Ukraine so that he spends the rest of his life dealing with that war, or permanently station American troops in the Baltics so that he can see that we will defend them.

Otherwise one day soon we're going to find Russian tanks in Baltic capitals and Putin daring us to go to war over it.
oralloy
 
  -3  
Mon 9 May, 2016 10:55 pm
@Blickers,
Blickers wrote:
"Ruined" is in the eye of the beholder.

The 2013 gun control debacle prevented Mr. Obama from having any legislative achievements in his second term.

Come election day it will have been a long six years since Mr. Obama successfully pushed any legislation through Congress, and the voters will hand the White House to the Republicans.
0 Replies
 
Blickers
 
  2  
Mon 9 May, 2016 11:37 pm
@oralloy,
Quote oralloy:
Quote:
The invaded country will know that they are being invaded, and that it is not a civil war. All they need to do is flatten Moscow and Leningrad and any victory that Russia achieves will be Pyrrhic.

Russia has a lot of experience disguising it's expansionism as civil wars. In various past versions of the Russian Empire, she did expand over most of Eastern Europe for periods, so there are some ethnic Russians in quite a few Eastern European countries. That's where it starts.

Quote:
I agree, but so far we are not doing a good job of it.

If we want to keep Putin out of the Baltics, we are going to have to either heat up the war in Ukraine so that he spends the rest of his life dealing with that war, or permanently station American troops in the Baltics so that he can see that we will defend them.

Well, I haven't heard anything about that. We at least know he won't try anything for a few months, he'll want to see if he can get his friend Trump in the White House first. We've already built a missile base in Romania, and will breaking ground in Poland soon for one. I don't know that Putin has any plans to take over the Baltics, but you'll never know.

ossobuco
 
  2  
Tue 10 May, 2016 12:09 am
@izzythepush,
I've been reading that book you mentioned, buy Phillip Kerr. I bought it cheap, of course, and it turned out to be a hefty glossy hard back in perfect condition. Hard to read in bed. I think of you when I swear, trying to hold it up. It's not in perfect condition anymore.
oralloy
 
  -2  
Tue 10 May, 2016 01:07 am
@Blickers,
Blickers wrote:
Russia has a lot of experience disguising it's expansionism as civil wars.

I don't think Russia fools anyone.


Blickers wrote:
I don't know that Putin has any plans to take over the Baltics, but you'll never know.

He does. He wants to finish with Ukraine and then Moldova, but once he is done there the Baltics are going to be next on his agenda.

If the US supplied the Ukrainians with enough weapons to make their war drag out for another 30 years, it would be of great benefit to European stability simply by keeping Putin's attention off the Baltics.
izzythepush
 
  2  
Tue 10 May, 2016 06:05 am
@ossobuco,
A surprisingly large number of people have sworn at me. I know, I'm as astonished as you are.
0 Replies
 
revelette2
 
  2  
Tue 10 May, 2016 06:15 am
@ossobuco,
It is sort of odd, but since I started on kindle, I can't really read actual books with the same ease as I used to if the words are smaller or if the format is just not good lighting so to speak, the words seem too dark and blends with background too much. Wish my library would have better books on the virtual library, but I live in a hick county. My husband looks at the bank statement sand sees amazon more times than he would like.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Tue 10 May, 2016 06:25 am
Poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump neck and neck in Florida
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll that finds Clinton with 43 percent support and Trump with 42 percent.

It looks like a Women are from venus, men are from Mars election: She leads Trump by 13 points among women, and he leads Clinton by 13 points among men.

Republicans’ weakness among minority voters is well known. But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton’s historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Quinnipiac's April 27 through May 8 telephone poll also surveyed likely voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio, finding Clintin leading 43 to 42 percent in Pennsylvania, and Trump leading Ohio 43 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error in each poll was plus or minus 3 percent.

Read more: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/poll-shows-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-neck-and-necck-in-florida/2276667
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Tue 10 May, 2016 06:27 am
Poll: Clinton, Trump 'dead even' in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
Source: USA Today

It's still early to analyze the general election, but a new poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a dead heat in three key swing states: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released Tuesday has Clinton up by a single point in both Florida (43%-42%) and Pennsylvania (43%-42%), while Trump leads Clinton in Ohio by 43%-to-39%

"Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, by the way, has narrow leads over Trump in all three pivotal states.

Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/05/10/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-quinnipiac-poll-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/84173448/
revelette2
 
  3  
Tue 10 May, 2016 06:30 am
@bobsal u1553115,
I am forced to repeat myself, but, Bernie Sanders has not received near the same negative press as Hillary nor the scrutiny because no one really has thought Bernie would actually end up being nominee on the other side. If you listened to their rally speeches, they always talk about beating Hillary, not Sanders.

Once the general gets under way and Hillary gets back in campaign mode, the polls are liable to change.
sozobe
 
  5  
Tue 10 May, 2016 06:38 am
@revelette2,
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/05/bernie_sanders_electability_argument_is_still_a_myth.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  2  
Tue 10 May, 2016 07:43 am
Michael Gerson's column today is very smart, passionate and beautiful. He recognizes that Trump and those who are in his camp are heading towards fascism but he fails to name the thing. He also fails, again, to confront how the WH he worked in had many of these same characteristics. He also fails, and this is his biggest continuing failure, to face up to how movement conservatism and the GOP has been complicit in this trajectory.

"The great Republican crackup has begun.

There is a growing group of Donald Trump partisans, including former House speaker Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Then there are Republican officials who publicly support Trump and privately hope he will lose in November — a group that could only be counted via lie detector, but I would test Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell first. And there are Trump opponents and skeptics, including the 41st president, the 43rd president, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan. Ryan, in particular, is providing air cover for the unconvinced.

What common views or traits unite the most visible Trump partisans? A group including Limbaugh and Christie is not defined primarily by ideology. Rather, the Trumpians share a disdain for “country-club” Republicans (though former House speaker John Boehner apparently likes Trump because they were golfing buddies). They tend to be white and middle-aged. They are filled with resentment.

Above all, they detest weakness in themselves and others..." http://wapo.st/1rEou3Y
blatham
 
  3  
Tue 10 May, 2016 07:44 am
And hello to soz. It's been a while. Hoping all is well.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Tue 10 May, 2016 08:43 am
THERE HAS been a long and valiant effort for many decades to reform the Democratic Party. But the party has a built-in kill switch that it created in 1972 after George McGovern won the primaries as a peace candidate.
They changed the internal party system to insure that grassroots candidates would never be elected again. This included creating the superdelegates in order to empower the party insiders to call the shots. The superdelegates are about 30 percent of the total needed to win the nomination, so it's a very powerful firewall. Likewise with the the Super Tuesday primaries. So it's a doomed struggle, right from the outset, to try to reform the party.
You only have to look back to the era of the civil rights movement to learn this lesson. That movement was as powerful a movement as we have seen in modern history and, together with the labor movement, which was much more powerful than it is today, there was an attempt to organize what was called "realignment" inside the Democratic Party.
It did succeed in getting the conservative Southern Dixiecrats out of the Democratic Party, but that's as far as it got. It completely floundered on the effort to create a social-democratic party out of the Democrats. Why was that?
Specifically, it was the war in Vietnam that made it essential to be an imperialist or pro-war if you wanted to have the "credibility" to critique the Democratic Party. This basically shot that reform movement -- in the foot, you could say! Because at the end of the day, the Democratic Party is funded by war profiteers, predatory banks and fossil-fuel giants. So this is not where we are going to create that party of revolution. It is fundamentally a counterrevolutionary party.
About the spoiler effect, I'll say a few things. First of all, just to put it to rest. It's a myth that Ralph Nader cost Al Gore the presidential election in Florida in 2000. It was the U.S. Supreme Court that stopped the vote re-count, which Gore would have won had it continued.
But beyond that, the problem is that millions of Florida Democrats didn't come out to vote for Gore. Nader's votes in Florida were a tiny fraction of the Democrats who either voted for Bush or stayed home. Blaming Nader is a self-serving fear campaign that the Democrats use to silence their opposition.
Blaming Nader or other third-party candidates is a strategy to intimidate people into a politics of fear that tells you to vote against what you fear instead of voting for what you believe. But in fact, the politics of fear has delivered everything we were afraid of.
We can list all the reasons people are told to silence themselves and vote for a lesser evil candidate: we were afraid of jobs going overseas, the climate meltdown, expanding wars, the attack on our civil liberties and on immigrant rights, expansion of the prison state, etc. Look around. This is exactly what we've gotten -- much of it under a Democratic White House with two Democratic houses of Congress.
Take the Wall Street bailout. Obama did that with a majority of Democrats in both houses of Congress in 2009. That's when that all occurred. So the politics of fear delivers what we're afraid of. The lesser evil is not the solution. It merely paves the way to the greater evil. It ensures that the Democratic Party base gets demoralized and doesn't come out to vote. So the greater evil wins. We've seen this time and again.

-- All of this news about Stein has attracted the attention of David Brock's troll brigade, and they have swarmed. As Clinton tacks harder right, picking up disaffected Republicans and their fat checks, we'll see more of this.
http://brainsandeggs.blogspot.com/
ehBeth
 
  4  
Tue 10 May, 2016 08:55 am
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:
The superdelegates are about 30 percent of the total needed to win the nomination, so it's a very powerful firewall.
http://brainsandeggs.blogspot.com/


the superdelegates have NOT been needed to win the nomination since they were introduced

there's a decent chance they won't matter this time round

red herring by anyone suggesting they are a meaningful factor

__

the party could/should consider dropping them since they're just a stupid source of meaningless argument
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  4  
Tue 10 May, 2016 08:56 am
@blatham,
blatham wrote:
They tend to be white and middle-aged. They are filled with resentment.

Above all, they detest weakness in themselves and others..." http://wapo.st/1rEou3Y


and male

the thought of losing to a woman has got to be agony

the reality will throw some of them over the edge (already seeing it on FB)
blatham
 
  1  
Tue 10 May, 2016 09:09 am
@ehBeth,
That species of misogyny is so far from my own cognitive operations that I sometimes don't even perceive it, beth. I don't say that to brag but rather as a reminder to listen to people like you.
blatham
 
  1  
Tue 10 May, 2016 09:10 am
Digby has a really good column up.

"Trump is crushing the conservative movement: Inside the implosion of a decrepit ideology
The movement inaugurated in the National Review has been dying for ages. Now Trump is doing it in for good" http://bit.ly/1T3yivh
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  6  
Tue 10 May, 2016 09:34 am
@edgarblythe,
Personally, I just don't see what the fuss is about.

Bernie Sanders isn't really a Democrat; he's never really been involved in the party before, right? Isn't that part of his appeal?

Then when he tries to swoop in and hijack the Democratic party for his own purposes, everyone starts bawling about how the deck is stacked against him.

Well, boo-effing-hoo. Maybe all these "outsiders" and idealists should have been down in the trenches trying to make "your" party work the way you want it to, rather than walzing in at the last minute and crying foul because it's not set up to make things easy for you.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  3  
Tue 10 May, 2016 09:41 am
@blatham,
Somehow* I connected to an interesting (on a sort of sociological level) group of people in Indiana, Kentucky and North Carolina on FB. Their perspective on life/politics is absolutely fascinating, if occasionally frightening.




* one of those friending everyone things that happened about 9 years ago on FB. I kept these folks on through several friend purges just so I could watch them. One of the women turned 30 last week. She is a grandmother and engaged to be married for the first time. Not something I see in my immediate real world.
 

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