80
   

When will Hillary Clinton give up her candidacy ?

 
 
Blickers
 
  2  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 08:22 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
I think you are more than a little confused here. Unemployment claims are a CONSEQUENCE of the decline in manufacturing jobs; not a CAUSE of it.


Yes, in the manufacturing sector. However, if fewer people across the board are getting laid off, manufacturing will do better, since they have jobs and can buy what is being manufactured. Such as what happened in 2009, when Obama stimulated the economy.
cicerone imposter
 
  3  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 08:37 pm
@Blickers,
According to (I think it was) CNNMoney, the current 5% unemployment is considered a healthy economy.
georgeob1
 
  0  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 08:43 pm
@Blickers,
Well then we should have borrowed more and he (Obama) should have "stimulated more and we'd all be rich.

The real fact is the much vaunted stimulus accomplished very little except sustain employment in non productive government bureaucracies (remember the "shovel ready projects" - that never materialized?) . Reducing taxes an equivvalent amount would have achieved far more, as the people would have put their money to more productive economic uses than feeding useless bureaucrats. Our recovery from the last recession was much slower than in any over the past 40 years. Nothing there to brag about.

The recent boom in gas and petroleum production contributed far more to our recent economic growth than anything the goverrnment did.

Your original "logic" here was ass backwards and, now in your response it is somewhat circular. You appear to be a little confused.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 08:44 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

According to (I think it was) CNNMoney, the current 5% unemployment is considered a healthy economy.


Considered by whom? Have you taken the reduction in work force participation into account?

If it's so damn healthy then what is Bernie Sander's campaign all about?
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 08:48 pm
@georgeob1,
According to CNNMoney, the 5% unemployment rate is the lowest in 7 years. That's good news!

From federal reserve.gov.
Quote:
Many estimates suggest that the long-run normal level of the unemployment rate--the level that the unemployment rate would be expected to converge to in the next 5 to 6 years in the absence of shocks to the economy--is in a range between 4.5 and 6 percent. Policymakers' judgments about the long-run normal rate of unemployment in the Summary of Economic Projections are generally in this range as well.


george, You'll have to ask the federal reserve.
georgeob1
 
  0  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 08:57 pm
@cicerone imposter,
No I don't. Neither you nor apparently they have taken the drop in the work force participation rate into account. During the past six years the Saocial security disability rolls have nearly doubled . Fewer people are working and average wages are down.

Investors and corporations are hoarding cash, afraid to invest it in new economic activity in the face of an authoritarian administration that is expanding Federal regulatory reach and power at an alarming rate and in hard to forecast ways with generally unpredictable (even to them) consequences. That's a very effective way to kill economic initiative, risk taking and new
enterprise creation.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 08:58 pm
@georgeob1,
So, it seems you know more about the unemployed than the government. Please enlighten us.

Also, the governments reach and power seems to be helping the US economy; now the strongest in the world.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 08:59 pm
@cicerone imposter,
The government published the work force participation rate. You can look it up.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 09:01 pm
@georgeob1,
Awe, come on george, show us!
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  2  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 09:17 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Have you taken the reduction in work force participation into account?
If it's so damn healthy then what is Bernie Sander's campaign all about?

It's about much more than jobs. It is a critique of the system and how that system has been crafted to maintain power and wealth in the hands of a few at the expense of everyone else. It's a revolutionary campaign which is why it has a high appeal to young people. We saw a precursor in the Occupy movement.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 09:31 pm
@blatham,
Here's the real answer.
Quote:
The clearest cause of the decline in the overall labor force participation rate is the aging of the population. The Baby Boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, is a large cohort of workers whose retirement age coincides with decline in labor force participation that began in 2000. As these workers retired, they left the labor force and in turn pushed down the total labor force participation rate.
georgeob1
 
  2  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:01 pm
@blatham,
I'll agree that is Bernie's theological explanation for it. He unfortunately doesn't take the trouble to tell us just who "crafted the system" he intends to overthrow; demonstrate to us how they supposedly did it; or show us any examples of systems, such as those he proposes, delivering anything close to the results he promises. The reason is simple - there aren't any. This is pie in the sky nonsense, but it does indeed have the appeal you note.

Bernie's a somewhat likeable guy and I suspect he really does believe all that ****. Indeed he conveys a sincerity and authenticity that is rare in the current political season (entirely missing among the Democrat candidates), and I believe that accounts for a lot of his success so far. However it would be very bad for us all in the highly unlikely event he was elected, and in the even more unlikely event that he ever got a Congrress that would enact his programs.

I'll agree his message does have some evident appeal to many including the young and inexperienced, but, in a year in which I doubt my own intuition about events, I still doubt that he has much of a chance of getting the Democrat nomination.

I hear on the news that the contest in Iowa is very close between Hillary and Sanders: there were earlier reports of a slim Clinton lead. but the latest indicate a near tie. If that is the result I think it will cause some difficulties for Clinton, though her prospects in the state primaries ahead still look a good deal better.

I understand that Cruz is leading Trump among Republicans and that Marco Rubiuo did unexpectedly well. I'm indifferent to the Cruz/Trump part, but the latter is very good news to me.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:04 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

Here's the real answer.
Quote:
The clearest cause of the decline in the overall labor force participation rate is the aging of the population. .



Nonsense. The work force participation rate (look it up) is age adjusted. The fraction of working age folks who are not either employed or seeking employment is much lower than has been normal.
maporsche
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:07 pm
@georgeob1,
There are a few rates...the U-6 rate is at 9.9% (versus 7.9 in 2006)

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/08/whats-the-real-unemployment-rate.html
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:09 pm
Here are the rates that the US government keeps track of.

U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:13 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Factcheck.org has the facts about the labor participation rates.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:19 pm
@maporsche,
Thank you. That was informative. I hope Cicerone reads it.

We do need more job creation both to employ the unemployed and to raise labor rates genarally. Unfortunately the investment climate for private sector entrepreneurs and investors isn't very encouraging, and a combination of uncertainty about what an increasingly intrusive government will do and the already business unfreindly attitude of both the administation and some candidates isn't very encouraging.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:40 pm
@georgeob1,
If it's nonsense, prove it.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:42 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I have already explained what was incorrect about your assertions.I don't waste my time on obviously stupid points with folks who don't bother to read.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:44 pm
@georgeob1,
If it's nonsense, prove it. Fact check agrees with me.
0 Replies
 
 

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