80
   

When will Hillary Clinton give up her candidacy ?

 
 
parados
 
  4  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 10:45 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
As far as patterns go there is indeed an undeniable pattern of convenient distortions of the truth in the political history of the Clintons

The distortions seem to be mostly from those wishing to attack them.
The list goes on and on and on with nothing to show in any of them.
Whitewater, cattle futures, over 30 people killed by Clinton, troopergate, stealing when the left the WH... None of them ever showed anything other than a lot of smoke being blown up our asses by the people making the accusations without facts.
parados
 
  4  
Mon 1 Feb, 2016 11:56 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:

Nonsense. The work force participation rate (look it up) is age adjusted. The fraction of working age folks who are not either employed or seeking employment is much lower than has been normal.

Really? I should look what up? Where?

Quote:

The labor force participation rate, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is “the percentage of the population [16 years and older] that is either employed or unemployed (that is, either working or actively seeking work).”


http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
http://www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm

Nope.. BLS says nothing about not including those over 64. The only definition they give is over 16.
Blickers
 
  1  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 12:42 am
@georgeob1,
Quote georgeob1:
Quote:
The real fact is the much vaunted stimulus accomplished very little except sustain employment in non productive government bureaucracies (remember the "shovel ready projects" - that never materialized?) . Reducing taxes an equivvalent amount would have achieved far more,

Sez you. The "real fact", (as opposed to the false one), is that Obama's stimulus turned a 6 Million Full Time job LOSS the year before he took office into a 2.5 Million Full Time job GAIN in the past 12 months, and a 5 Million Full Time job gain in the past two years. I'll take Obama's actual results, thank you very much-you have only speculation.


Quote georgeob1:
Quote:
Our recovery from the last recession was much slower than in any over the past 40 years. Nothing there to brag about.

The recession that we recovered from was FAR greater than any other in the past 40 years as well, george. Lehman Bros shutdown. Merrill Lynch, AIG and so many others went down and the stock market dived nearly 50%. We are recovering nicely from that. The other recessions don't compare with 2008, and you know it.


Quote georgeob1:
Quote:
Fewer people are working and average wages are down.


That's untrue, george. More people are working Full Time jobs than ever. And median weekly earnings, inflation-adjusted, are up. I have shown you this before. Don't make me tell you again. Laughing

http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/ah279/LeviStubbs/Full%20Time%20jobs%20jan%202000%20thru%20dec%202015_zpsf7e5n8i8.jpg

Blickers
 
  2  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 12:56 am
@georgeob1,
Quote georgeob1:
Quote:
Have you taken the reduction in work force participation into account?

Don't worry about the work force participation rate, george. Here's an eye-opener your hysterical right wing news sources will never tell you:
Full Time Jobs Percentage Increase
Dec. 2013: 117.307 Million Full Time jobs
Dec. 2015 122.603 Million Full Time jobs
Increase: 4.5% Increase in Full Time jobs

Not In Labor Force Percentage Increase
Dec. 2013: 91.663 Million Not In Labor Force (over 16)
Dec. 2015: 94.103 Million Not In Labor Force (over 16)
Increase: 2.7% Increase in People Not In Labor Force

In the last two years we have been filling Full Time jobs 66% FASTER than we are losing people from the work force. At this rate we are going to have to open up that fence between us and Mexico that you conservatives want to build so we don't have to put 80 and 90 year olds to work filling all these Full Time jobs that are opening up.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  2  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 03:53 am
I've had a google news alert on Grover Norquist for years. Over the last couple of years or so, the direction of his activism has been unusually focused on "justice reform" or "prison reform". Those paying attention will understand that this is presently a big PR campaign by the Koch brothers as well.

That alliance ought not to surprise anyone, of course. Norquist and the Kochs have very similar goals and political ideologies.

But the "justice reform" thing is a cover story (where it is being presented as reform which will prevent so many black kids from ending up in jail, for example). The truly important part of this PR package are in its proposals to de-fang government and prosecutors from going after white-collar crime (pollution, tax evasion, etc). That's why the Kochs and Norquist are doing what they are doing.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  0  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 04:01 am
@parados,
You can add voter fraud to the list...
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  2  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 05:33 am
The meaning or consequence of last night's results won't be discernible for a while. This is the start of a series of such nights and all of them, cumulatively and sequentially, will give us a much more clear picture.

But on the GOP side, Rubio's high percentage looks to be the important aspect, at least for now. Faith and hope will be restored for the "dump Cruz and Trump" crowd.

That said, Cruz's win is important as well. Once again, it demonstrates that, so far, his organization and strategy is working for him. Now we'll have to see how Trump responds and whether his so-far successful tricks for holding the media spotlight will be able to cope. And, of course, now Cruz will go after Rubio hammer and tongs and Rubio will do the same with Cruz. In this, Rubio will have to move even further right in rhetoric and continue to insist that he is near to drowning in the blood of Christ as it pours in a Holy River down Calvary.

Sander's results will make his supporters very happy and may well encourage others to join the revolution. I don't happen to think this a good thing, if it continues because I doubt he can actually win the general. If we understand that conservatism's most fundamental raison d'etre is the perceived need to stop radicalism, a Bernie candidacy looks pretty perfect as a foil for conservative mobilization (though here we have to acknowledge that conservatism does and will always "find" radicalism otherwise it has no reason to exist).
0 Replies
 
revelette2
 
  2  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 06:34 am
Whatever the final outcome, neither Clinton nor Sanders really lost in Iowa
Quote:

If Hillary Clinton was hoping to land a knockout punch against her Democratic rival Bernie Sanders in the Iowa caucuses Monday night, then she didn’t get what she was hoping for.

Yet if Sanders arrived in Des Moines hoping to “pull an Obama” — to unseat the presumptive frontrunner with an upset victory that would immediately reset the narrative of the campaign, as Barack Obama did in 2008 — then his dream didn’t come true, either.

In the end — or at least at bedtime, the results of this year’s Democratic contest were a muddle. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton led Sanders 49.8 percent to 49.6 percent. All that separated the two candidates were three measly delegates. This could change overnight, of course, but whatever the final numbers are, neither Sanders nor Clinton will be heading into next week’s New Hampshire primary with any significant new momentum.

Even so, both Democrats have reason to feel good about Monday’s outcome. In 2008, Clinton, long considered “inevitable,” didn’t just lose to Obama. She also lost to former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. It was a shocking, sobering defeat that her campaign never really recovered from. Monday’s results suggest that she has learned from her mistakes.

Sanders, meanwhile, was largely dismissed as a sideshow when he announced his candidacy nine months ago. Now he has fought an even-more-inevitable Clinton to a draw, in a state where she was leading by 25 percentage points as recently as November — meaning that his sturdy lead in New Hampshire is unlikely to crumble, and that the war over delegates will probably extend well into the spring.

“Tonight, while the results are still not known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie,” Sanders said to raucous cheers at his caucus-night party in a Holiday Inn ballroom in Des Moines. “I think the people of Iowa have sent a very profound message to the political establishment, to the economic establishment — and, by the way, to the media establishment.”


Sanders will win NH, but the real question is whether he will survive super Tuesday, or even win over Hillary.

What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa

Quote:
If you’re dreaming of Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton, you know how the movie begins (he wins Iowa on Monday1), how it ends (he accepts the nomination to a Simon & Garfunkel tune), and one of the major plot lines (black, Hispanic and moderate Democrats, who for now prefer Clinton to Sanders, begin to #feelthebern). You also know who the hapless villain is: Democratic party elites (aka “the establishment”), who will be fighting Sanders every step of the way.

Otherwise, the details are fuzzy. We’re not quite sure how Sanders pulls off this Wes Anderson caper.

Sanders is highly competitive in the first two states, Iowa (where he’s only narrowly behind Clinton) and New Hampshire (where he leads her). However, those states are favorable for Sanders demographically, with Democratic turnout dominated by Sanders’s base of white liberal voters. The question is whether Sanders can expand his coalition into more diverse states that will vote later on and where African-Americans, Hispanics and white moderates make up a larger share of the electorate. He won’t need to win every voter in these groups, but he’ll need enough of them to go from the roughly one-third of Democratic voters he captures in national polls now to the 50-percent-plus he’ll need eventually.

The first challenge for Sanders is that he appears to be trailing in Iowa. Our “polls-only” forecast gives Clinton a 68 percent chance of winning the state, compared with 32 percent for Sanders, on the basis of her being about 4 percentage points ahead in our weighted polling average. Our “polls-plus” forecast, which assigns some additional credit to Clinton because of her massive lead in endorsements, has Clinton as a 76 percent favorite.

To be clear, those forecasts aren’t predicting that Clinton will win Iowa by 30 percentage points. They’re projecting a close finish and saying that Clinton is somewhat more likely — a little better than a 2-to-1 favorite — to come out on top. But Iowa polls are not all that accurate, and even some polls that show Clinton ahead envision Sanders winning if his voters come out. A Sanders win wouldn’t be all that much of an upset, in other words, at least relative to where the polls stand now.

At the same time, it’s not clear that Sanders has momentum in the Hawkeye State. He made major gains when the first few polls came out in January relative to where they’d been in December, making the race much closer. But he’s never quite surpassed Clinton. In fact, Clinton’s had roughly the same 4-point lead in our polling average for a couple of weeks now. We’ll know more after the Des Moines Register, which previously had Clinton 2 points ahead, releases its excellent poll Saturday.

What if Sanders wins Iowa?

But suppose Sanders does win Iowa. The next step is relatively easy: He’ll probably also win New Hampshire, where the demographics are even better for him, he has a geographic advantage as a Vermont senator (that really does matter) and he already leads Clinton by 13 percentage points. (Obligatory reminder: Clinton won New Hampshire in 2008 despite being way behind in the polls after Iowa.)

If Sanders pulls off the twofer, you’ll be hearing these facts often:
◾No candidate (Democrat or Republican) has lost the nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire since Ed Muskie in 1972.2
◾No candidate has won the the nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire since Bill Clinton in 1992.

But there are two reasons to think that Hillary Clinton, like her husband, could defy the prevailing trend. One is the issue I mentioned earlier: Sanders’s success in Iowa and New Hampshire might be a reflection of their Sanders-friendly demographics rather than a harbinger of Clinton’s doom. That seems to match the polling we’re seeing in other states, where (for instance) Sanders is doing relatively well in Wisconsin, which also has plenty of white liberals, but struggling in North Carolina, which has fewer.


The rest at the source.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 08:09 am
Enough.

One of my favorite writers on Daily Kos is Dallasdoc and he has outdone himself with a recent diary called Enough. Here is a tiny sliver of that piece, but please go to the diary and read in its entirety. It has close to 700 recs which is pure awesomeness.

Hillary Clinton and her backers explicitly believe that in this Citizens United world, the best way to fight corrupt money in politics on the Republican side is with more corrupt money on the Democratic side. How else can we win? Actually, fighting fire with fire only creates a lot more ashes. The best way to fight fire is with water. The best way to fight corrupt money in politics is not more corrupt money in politics. The best way is to make corrupt money poison to any politician accepting it. That means weaponizing corruption as a political issue, and taking advantage of the anger in the country at politics.

This seemingly obvious point has been ignored because of the fact that in order to wield the weapon of corruption as an issue, you have to be perceived as not tainted by it yourself. This requirement has left it unused in our political culture. Bernie Sanders is one of the very few politicians in national politics who has not been generally corrupted by Washington. Just like Andy Dufresne in The Shawshank Redemption, he swam through a river of **** and came out clean. Bernie can wield the weapon of corruption, and has been doing so to increasing effect. Even Donald Trump has been able to swing it a few times, despite his obvious deep involvement. Apparently to Republican voters, it’s better to be a buyer than a seller at the politician market. Nobody else in the race has a chance of using corruption to their advantage as an issue.

Hillary Clinton’s long record (the downside of “experience” is that it leaves a record) leaves her defenseless against the weapon of the corruption issue. And Republicans know it. Donald Trump has already fired a shot across her bow by mentioning her association with him. It is not unlikely that one of the reasons the Republican establishment has begun cozying up to the Donald is that they see a possibility he can beat Hillary. If they’re right, corruption will no doubt be the main feature of their general election campaign. Another endless round of accusations and scandals surrounding a Clinton, this time with a lot more evidence than was available to those pushing the Vince Foster conspiracy nonsense. Should Clinton win, the drumbeat would continue as long as she maintained office. Anybody who remembers the Nineties should be tingling in anticipation of that prospect.

We cannot roll back the corruption of our political system with more corruption.The Democratic party can only win a corrupt contest by trying to be just as corrupt as the Republicans, but they have more billionaires than we do. The only way to win is with asymmetric warfare, by not playing according to their rules. Hillary Clinton cannot do this. Bernie Sanders can. The American people have had enough with the corrupt status quo. Anyone who calls him or herself a Progressive should not tolerate it, for historical reasons if nothing else. Who will fight this corruption if we don’t?

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/1/31/1477674/-Enough
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 08:33 am
@parados,
Really? I found it in about 4 seconds on the BLS web site at

http://data.bls.gov
Ttere's a nice graph there that shows this statistic steady at approximately ste 66% prior to 2008, followed by a, slightly less than linear, steady decline since then to about 62.5% in 2015 - a 3.5% decline since the last recession. It was about 65% at the start of 2010 and 64.2% in 2011. The rate of decline has slowed a bit since then to about -0.25%/year, reaching 62.5% in 2015 - gut the decline continues...

That makes cicerone's 5% unemployment equivalent to 8.5% in 2007.

Blickers is more proficient than I at copying and poasting material apparently from the same site (based on the siumilarity in format). It is remarkable that she didn't find it.
ohno
 
  -2  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 09:36 am
@parados,
Quote:
None of them ever showed anything other than a lot of smoke being blown up our asses by the people making the accusations without facts.


The people don't feel that way. This forum and the support for Hillary does not transfer to the reality of the situation. The first word associated with Hillary is liar. And those things you named are what she is lying about.

Not to mention the fact that she lied to the families of the dead in Benghazi. Or do you claim those families are lying?
0 Replies
 
ohno
 
  0  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 10:12 am
Quote:
Clinton Camp Accused of Attempting ELECTION FRAUD by Falsifying Results in Iowa


Already? Practice makes perfect.

http://www.thefederalistpapers.org/us/clinton-camp-accused-of-attempting-election-fraud-by-falsifying-results-in-iowa
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 10:25 am
@Blickers,
You are remarkably deficient in your understanding of statistics and I am very surprised and a bit skeptical about the evident ffact that while perusing the BLS data site you were never able to find the workforce participation rate data to which I referred so prominently displayed there.

The data which you posted claiming that "more people are working full time jobs than ever" is hardly persuasive. Examine the table you posted.
parados
 
  5  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 10:26 am
@georgeob1,
I guess you didn't understand that BLS doesn't adjust for over 65. They don't do what you claimed which is why I asked where I could find it. You give me a source that is the OPPOSITE of your claim.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 10:28 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

The data which you posted claiming that "more people are working full time jobs than ever" is hardly persuasive. Examine the table you posted.


Not to mention the fact that with population growth literally every year should have more full time jobs than the previous year (provided the unemployment rate stays steady).

That 'more people working full time jobs than ever" statistic is completely meaningless and is only used as a means to muddy the waters.
parados
 
  4  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 10:28 am
@georgeob1,
Perhaps you need to examine it....


Age: 16 years and over

They do not eliminate retired persons over 65 from the numbers. More retired people mean more people not in the labor force.
ohno
 
  -3  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 10:32 am
@parados,
I believe I asked you a question. Was the post to long for you to read?

Is Hillary lying, or those families of the Benghazi dead?
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  3  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 10:33 am
@parados,
Hold on.

From the BLS:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#nlf

People NOT in the labor force include:

Persons who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force. This category includes retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work. Information is collected on their desire for and availability for work, job search activity in the prior year, and reasons for not currently searching. See also Labor force and Discouraged workers.
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 10:57 am
@Blickers,
You are remarkably deficient in your understanding (or use) of statistics. I am very surprised and a bit skeptical about the evident fact that while perusing the BLS data site you were never able to find the workforce participation rate data to which I referred, and which is so prominently displayed there.

The data which you posted claiming that "more people are working full time jobs than ever" is hardly persuasive. Examine the table you posted. If you will examine the data and do the math correctly you will find that since 2009 and the botton of thre recession, the number of people working full time has increased at an average annual rate of 0.7%/year. Thats well under half the rate of growth of our population. So while your (perhaps deceptively contrived) statement is literally true it doers NOTHING to refute the accurate statement I made about the > 3% decline in the workforce labor participation rate since Obama took office, The decline was steepest in his first term but the decline continues at a rate of about 0.25% every year since 2012. That works out to about 300,000 people of working age of working age who drop out of the work force entirely every year, .

I made no claim about the number of people working or about how many new jobs are created precisely because that data can be so misleading. For example you made an assertion about the number of new jobs being created under the sainted Obama. Unfortunately you failed to note any data on the number that dissappeared. It is the net change that is significant and that numbe is NOT encourtaging. That is precisely what Bernie Sanders is complaining about so successfully, though the remedies he proposes would exacerbate the problem, not solve it.

You may see all this as a conservative conspiracy as you termed it. That is not the case. It is the simple truth. You are either being deliberately deceptive or are simply too credulous and inept to see the sophistry in your comments and the elementary deficiencies in your use and interpretations of BLS sdtatistics.
parados
 
  3  
Tue 2 Feb, 2016 11:25 am
@maporsche,
You might want to read it all....
Quote:
The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. The labor force participation rate is the labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population. Browse various labor force characteristics. Data also are available by demographic characteristics. See also Not in the labor force..


Retired persons and students are part of the noninstitutional population.
 

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