@ossobuco,
Yes, the balance of power idea is scary. But the arrogance of Israel, who owns a good hundred nuclear warheads at the least, and her keeping that program totally secret, are also scary. Israel has a track record of military aggression. It is backed 150% by
the superpower. Its electorate is more rightist and racist today than the German electorate was in 1933, and radicalizing by the day. If you put yourself in the shoes of the Iranians, you'll see immediately how
really scary that picture looks. So they do want the bomb, IMO, it remains an important priority among the powers that be, in my reading. Anybody would in their situation, and the more you scare them, the more they will want it.
But as of now, with Ahmedinejad out of the way and the sanctions bitting hard, they have decided to postpone that quest for a few years/decades. At least the enrichment. Iranians are long term players and planners. They are yielding, not breaking, to get the economy back on track. IF the sanctions are lifted, the sky is the limit for them. Look at Turkey next door.
My real hope is that Iran will continue to de-radicalise if the sanctions are lifted, and that in a decade when they can actually AFFORD the bomb, they will decide they can also afford to live without it, like say Brasil.
Iran's neighborhood is pretty unsafe though, and the way Israel is going and the Sunni states are disintegrating, I'm pessimistic. Worse case scenario, Iran could surprise us with a nuclear test circa 2025, after years of apparent compliance. By then, i reckon Israel will have built a giant chutzpah factory as an annex to the US Senate in DC, will have pissed off the world two millions times, invaded one or several neighboring states, and become ruled by a junta of neonazi rabbi... So everybody will look the other way.
