@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:oralloy wrote:NATO soldiers will not engage in direct military conflict with Russian soldiers, but the West is going to give lots of aid to Kiev, and that may well expand to include military equipment and even weapons.
no they will not, it would not change the outcome and it would piss Russia and China off. The Ukrainians are not smart enough or organized enough to use military aid effectively.
We don't like that Russia and China are a negative force in the world. If it annoys them that the US takes action to curb their negative influence, I see that as a strong positive and a reason to go ahead and do it.
It is true that the Ukrainian military currently lacks a lot of fighting skill, but we could begin training them at the same time that we arm and equip them. No need for US troops to go into Ukraine either; groups of Ukrainian troops could travel to western Europe for their training.
As far as changing the outcome, maybe, maybe not. True that it would take a lot to boost the Ukrainian military to a level that could throw the Russians out of Ukrainian territory. But it would be much easier to merely boost the Ukrainians to a level where they could prolong the fight indefinitely, slowly bleeding the Russians dry like in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Even if the war did result in an eventual total victory for Russia, every additional day that Russia spends fighting in Ukraine is one more day that some other country will have without a Russian invasion, and is one more day that NATO can use to bolster our defenses in the Baltic states.
hawkeye10 wrote:oralloy wrote:I've recommended that NATO present a strong defense in order to deter Putin from such aggression. However the anti-war creeps always pounce on me for doing so. Perhaps they want a nuclear war.
We would defend most of the nations in the region but despite all of the chatter nobody cares much about Ukraine. THe Ukrainians best accept this fact and sit down to get the best deal they can from Russia.
I think we care about Ukraine. We just don't want to send our own troops head to head with Russian troops. The specter of "unintentional escalation to total nuclear war" still looms over strategic thinking.
That thinking (no head to head fighting) has its merits, but it has the downside that Putin can send his soldiers into a country and then we reliably shy away from sending in our own soldiers. When Putin is done with Ukraine, if he senses the slightest bit of weakness in NATO, he is going to try pulling the same stunt and send unmarked soldiers into one of the Baltic NATO countries.
It would be to our advantage if Putin sees no weakness in NATO when that day comes.
I don't think the Russians are actually offering the Ukrainians any deals. Their "negotiations" are just propaganda to try to weaken western resolve.