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Kerry's Doomed Mideast Plan

 
 
Reply Tue 13 Aug, 2013 04:13 pm
The odds against Kerry's plan are staggering.





Seven Reasons Kerry's Mideast Talks Are Delusional

By Jeffrey Goldberg, Bloomberg, July 31, 2013

Here's what John Kerry, the U.S. secretary of state, said yesterday at a news conference in Washington, in the presence of the lead Palestinian and Israeli peace negotiators: "The parties have agreed here today that all of the final status issues, all of the core issues, and all other issues are all on the table for negotiation. And they are on the table with one simple goal: a view to ending the conflict, ending the claims. Our objective will be to achieve a final status agreement over the course of the next nine months."

Just to be clear, this is what will need to happen by next April, in time for the White House signing ceremony:

1. Jerusalem, the holiest city in Judaism and the third-holiest in Islam, will have to be divided in a way that doesn't cause a global religious war. A Palestinian capital will have to be established in the eastern half of the city, and the world's Muslims must agree to the continued control over much of the Old City, including and especially the Western Wall, by Israel. For their part, the Israelis must agree to cede permanent control of the Temple Mount, Judaism's holiest site, to Muslim religious authorities. That or the parties must agree to international control over the so-called Holy Basin, which contains the most important sites of monotheism.

2. The Jews who live in Hebron, Judaism's second-holiest city, must be made to leave, because the city will be part of Palestine. Or the Palestinian Authority must be convinced to grant them citizenship. The stated position of the Palestinian Authority is that Palestine will be empty of Israelis.

3. The descendants of the Palestinians who either fled or were expelled from what is now Israel during the 1948 Arab attack on the fledgling Jewish state must be told that they aren't moving to Israel. The president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, must also survive the inevitable attempts on his life if he agrees to give up the Palestinian claim of "return." Also, the Palestinians will have to agree never to lodge claims against Israel again.

4. A plan must be formulated to remove anywhere from 50,000 to 80,000 Israelis from the settlements on the far side of the West Bank security barrier. Among these settlers are thousands of fanatics who sympathized with the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, the former Israeli prime minister, for negotiating with the Palestine Liberation Organization. Also, Israel will have to stop building new settlements and thickening others. The current Israeli government is possibly the most pro-settler one in the country's history, and a good percentage of the Israeli officer corps, the soldiers who would have to remove Jews from settlements, lives in settlements.

5. Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must be persuaded to trust each other. As Avi Issacharoff writes in the Times of Israel, "Abbas believes Netanyahu is unwilling to make peace, while Netanyahu believes Abbas is unable to. Both are sending out pessimistic vibes, giving those around them the feeling that nothing much will come of all this. This can be seen in their decision to send representatives to Washington instead of holding a high-level summit."

6. Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, where almost half the future citizens of Palestine live, must either dissolve itself or be dissolved by force or change its ideology in such a way as to conform to the Palestinian Authority's vision of compromise. If Hamas refuses to change, then Israel and the Palestinian Authority must have an effective plan to counter the mass acts of terrorism that often come during periods of heightened hopes for peace.

7. Hezbollah and Iran must be convinced not to start a war designed to interrupt the peace process. Also, Iran must be stopped from going nuclear, which would further destabilize an already destabilized Middle East. Also, Egypt must not collapse, the Syrian civil war must not spill over into the Israeli-Palestinian arena, Lebanon must remain a unitary state and Jordan must stay under control of the Hashemite monarchy.

I'm sure I'm missing some things. I'll mention those later, whatever they are. I actually admire Kerry's chutzpah a great deal. It's important, for the sake of the Israeli and Palestinian peoples, that a compromise is constructed in a way that prevents further bloodshed. I just hope that there's a secret Plan B -- some sort of interim arrangement that could forestall further tragedy even in the absence of a permanent accord.

Because if there isn't, and Kerry's negotiations fail, then the situation next year may be even unhappier than it is now.

The Five Flaws of Kerry's Mideast Peace Process

By Noah Beck, The Algemeiner, August 1, 2013

1) No Palestinian reciprocity at the outset. Israel agreed to release 104 convicted terrorists just to get the Palestinians to talk peace. Would the U.S. agree to release 104 Guantanamo prisoners for talks with anyone?

Israel will undoubtedly be blamed if negotiations fail, so it's unlikely that fair judgment by the international community motivated the release. Perhaps it was the price that Israel had to pay for a U.S. promise to prevent Iranian nukes and/or support Israel's efforts to stop them. If so, is the U.S. good for its word (despite Obama's repeated demonstrations that his Mideast "red lines" are meaningless)?

Whatever the explanation for Israel's good-faith opening, there were plenty of ways for the Palestinians to reciprocate: removing anti-Israel incitement from their textbooks and/or official media, recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, promising to "freeze" their anti-Israel diplomatic offensives, etc. But Secretary of State John Kerry preferred to establish that Palestinian reciprocity is optional: if Israel isn't volunteering what the Palestinians demand, they need only threaten to leave the talks and Kerry will compel the Israelis to comply.

2) No Palestinian good faith. The Palestinians will be represented by Saeb Erekat and Mohammad Shtayyeh. Shtayyeh's Facebook page displays a map of Israel's internationally recognized borders, plus the West Bank and Gaza – all emblazoned with the Arabic letters for "Palestine." So the person entrusted with negotiating a "two-state solution" openly admits that his Mideast map has room for only a Palestinian state. Just as alarming, during a recent sermon attended by Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and broadcast on Palestinian television, Religious Endowments Minister Mahmoud al-Habbash compared the PA's decision to negotiate with Israel to the Prophet Muhammad's Treaty of Hudaibiya (in the year 628 CE): "in less than two years, based on this treaty, the Prophet returned and conquered Mecca. This is the example. It is the model."

3) No religious freedom in a future Palestinian state. Palestinians insist (ironically) that "peaceful coexistence" means no Jewish settlers in their state. But, on principle, why should Jews be banned from living in a future Palestinian state -- particularly when Muslims constitute over 17% of Israel's population? Will the future Palestinian state be as hostile to religious minorities as other Muslim majority states are? Unfortunately, recent history gives little reason to hope otherwise. Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning, Arab journalist reported the following about a year ago:

According to the Greek Orthodox Church in the Gaza Strip, at least five Christians have been kidnapped and forced to convert to Islam in recent weeks...Church leaders...accused a prominent Hamas man of being behind the kidnapping and forced conversion of a Christian woman, Huda Abu Daoud, and her three daughters. Radical Islam, and not checkpoints or a security fence, remains the main threat to defenseless Christians not only in the Palestinians territories, but in the entire Middle East as well.

While Gaza is ruled by Islamists, the PA has also shown its hostility to Christians. On March 12, 2012, Algemeiner reported that

"A week after Prime Minister Salam Fayyad told an [international] audience of Evangelical Protestants...that his government respected the rights of its Christian minorities, [PA] officials...informed Bethlehem pastor Rev. Naim Khoury that his church lacked the authority to function as a religious institution under the PA...[T]here is a sense among Christians in Bethlehem that anti-Christian animus has gotten worse in the city...Khoury said."

A few weeks ago, Palestinians vandalized the Cave of the Patriarchs, Judaism's second holiest site. How safe will non-Muslim holy sites be if there is no more Israeli presence in the West Bank? Will a future peace agreement specifically guarantee protection of and Israeli access to Jewish holy sites?

If Israel's presence in the West Bank has helped to moderate Muslim rule there, will Israel's complete departure mean that West Bank Christians can expect their persecution to worsen to Gazan levels (with abductions and forced conversions)? Palestinian insistence that their future West Bank state be "Judenrein" doesn't bode well for the indigenous Christians there (or for religious freedom).

4) No Palestinian mandate to negotiate peace. There are about 2.1 million Palestinian Arabs in the West Bank and 1.7 million in the Gaza Strip. But Hamas-ruled Gaza vehemently opposes peace negotiations and denies Israel's right to exist. Islamic Jihad and Hamas recently lambasted PA leaders for meeting with Israelis to talk peace. The last time that the PA announced direct talks with Israel, Hamas announced plans to launch terrorist attacks at Israel, in coordination with 12 other Gaza terrorist organizations.

And it's not even clear that West Bank Palestinians favor these talks. Last Sunday, they rallied against peace until PA police violently suppressed the protest. Human Rights Watch has urged the Palestinian government to investigate the police beatings. Moreover, Abbas himself has no legal mandate, as his term of political office expired long ago yet he continues to rule with no elections in sight.

At best, the PA can deliver only half of any peace that it promises, which lets Palestinians have their cake and eat it too: the PA can extract painful territorial concessions from Israel at the negotiating table, while Hamas can continue terrorist attacks to achieve the one-state solution embraced on Facebook by PA "peace negotiator" Mohammad Shtayyeh.

5) Transferring the West Bank could be Israel's geostrategic undoing. Jordan could collapse any day from a flood of about 500,000 Syrian refugees (and growing daily); severe poverty; popular discontent over corruption, inequality, and lack of freedom; acute water shortages; and/or Muslim Brotherhood action to overthrow King Abdullah's monarchy. These factors make the Abdullah regime's survival increasingly uncertain. After Israel militarily withdraws from the West Bank, will Hamas topple the PA there as it did in Gaza (two years after Israel's 2005 Gaza withdrawal)? What if the Hamas-allied Muslim Brotherhood then takes over Jordan? If Jordanian-Palestinians -- the largest ethnic group in Jordan -- create a Palestinian state there (as advocated by this Jordanian-Palestinian writer), would Palestinians effectively have two states? The range and severity of threats to Israel from the combination of a post-Abdullah Jordan and a Palestinian West Bank state are considerable. Is it even possible to address these Israeli security concerns in a way that leaves Palestinian negotiators satisfied enough to sign a peace treaty?

With so many inherent defects in the current peace talks, why would the U.S. push its most reliable Mideast ally (and the only Middle East democracy) into such perilous waters or inevitable blame? One explanation is the increasingly fashionable idea (promoted by Arab governments) that settlements are blocking a peace deal that would produce Mideast stability. But inconvenient facts completely contradict this idea: Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Bahrain, and Yemen (etc.) would remain the same conflict-torn mess as they are now after any Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Noah Beck is the author of "The Last Israelis," a submarine thriller about the Iranian nuclear threat and the doomsday scenario that it could produce.

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Type: Discussion • Score: 10 • Views: 9,388 • Replies: 255

 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Tue 13 Aug, 2013 04:23 pm
Everyone talking about peace being achievable in that region without the elimination of the state of Israel…is dreaming.

Okay…that is an estimate or a guess…not something I know.

But I would bet the ranch on it.

So long as there is a state of Israel in the Middle East…and there are any Arabs alive there also…there will never be true peace. People will hate and fight and be maimed and die…often and regularly.

The only solution that has even a remote chance for peace there…is to eliminate the state of Israel or move it somewhere else.

Frankly, the rest of the world (probably in the person of the United Nations) should take over possession of that area and subject everyone who lives there to its rules. This “holy city” nonsense should be considered just that…nonsense.
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Tue 13 Aug, 2013 04:23 pm
@Frank Apisa,
Yeah...Kerry's plan is doomed.

So are all the others.
0 Replies
 
Advocate
 
  0  
Reply Tue 13 Aug, 2013 04:45 pm
@Frank Apisa,
Frank Apisa wrote:

Everyone talking about peace being achievable in that region without the elimination of the state of Israel…is dreaming.

Okay…that is an estimate or a guess…not something I know.

But I would bet the ranch on it.

So long as there is a state of Israel in the Middle East…and there are any Arabs alive there also…there will never be true peace. People will hate and fight and be maimed and die…often and regularly.

The only solution that has even a remote chance for peace there…is to eliminate the state of Israel or move it somewhere else.

Frankly, the rest of the world (probably in the person of the United Nations) should take over possession of that area and subject everyone who lives there to its rules. This “holy city” nonsense should be considered just that…nonsense.



There might be peace if people like you were eliminated.
mysteryman
 
  4  
Reply Tue 13 Aug, 2013 06:40 pm
Make Jerusalem an international city.
Have it policed by the Swiss, armed and funded by the UN.

Let Jerusalem be run by a trio of people, 1 Muslim, 1 Christian,and 1 Jew.
It would take a 2-1 vote by the 3 of them topass new laws.
They would be assisted by a secular city council, and a secular legal system,overseeen by the UN.
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 02:00 am
@Advocate,

They've gotten farther already than I even thought possible.

Time will tell if the plan is doomed, but the fact that they've made it this far is a sign that something might be different this time.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 02:02 am
@mysteryman,
mysteryman wrote:
Make Jerusalem an international city.

The day after Mecca and Medina are made international cities (complete with Xian churches).
Frank Apisa
 
  2  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 03:51 am
@Advocate,
Advocate wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:

Everyone talking about peace being achievable in that region without the elimination of the state of Israel…is dreaming.

Okay…that is an estimate or a guess…not something I know.

But I would bet the ranch on it.

So long as there is a state of Israel in the Middle East…and there are any Arabs alive there also…there will never be true peace. People will hate and fight and be maimed and die…often and regularly.

The only solution that has even a remote chance for peace there…is to eliminate the state of Israel or move it somewhere else.

Frankly, the rest of the world (probably in the person of the United Nations) should take over possession of that area and subject everyone who lives there to its rules. This “holy city” nonsense should be considered just that…nonsense.



There might be peace if people like you were eliminated.


I doubt there will be peace in the Middle East no matter what. But the Jews and Arabs of that area got along relatively peacefully before the creation of the state of Israel...and there is no reason to suppose they could not get along that way if the state of Israel ceased to exist there.

But you would rather suggest "eliminating" "people like me!"
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 03:54 am
@Frank Apisa,
You seem to have the measure of Advocate quite well.

mysteryman
 
  2  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 05:42 am
@oralloy,
If they were as disputed as Jerusalem I would agree.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 05:57 am
@mysteryman,
mysteryman wrote:
If they were as disputed as Jerusalem I would agree.

If you want to succeed in your efforts to force other religions to share their holiest sites with the Muslims, you're going to have to reciprocate and have the Muslims share their holiest sites with other religions.

Otherwise your proposal is doomed to failure. No one is going to put up with the Muslims stealing everyone's holy sites all the time.
0 Replies
 
Advocate
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 10:32 am
@Frank Apisa,
Frank Apisa wrote:

Advocate wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:

Everyone talking about peace being achievable in that region without the elimination of the state of Israel…is dreaming.

Okay…that is an estimate or a guess…not something I know.

But I would bet the ranch on it.

So long as there is a state of Israel in the Middle East…and there are any Arabs alive there also…there will never be true peace. People will hate and fight and be maimed and die…often and regularly.

The only solution that has even a remote chance for peace there…is to eliminate the state of Israel or move it somewhere else.

Frankly, the rest of the world (probably in the person of the United Nations) should take over possession of that area and subject everyone who lives there to its rules. This “holy city” nonsense should be considered just that…nonsense.



There might be peace if people like you were eliminated.



I doubt there will be peace in the Middle East no matter what. But the Jews and Arabs of that area got along relatively peacefully before the creation of the state of Israel...and there is no reason to suppose they could not get along that way if the state of Israel ceased to exist there.

But you would rather suggest "eliminating" "people like me!"


I guess it depend on how you interpret "relatively well." They didn't get along relatively well. There were constant attacks on the Jews, as well as Jewish counterattacks. How could the Jews live with that situation?
Advocate
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 10:33 am
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:

You seem to have the measure of Advocate quite well.




This should not make you proud. Izzy loves anyone who throws out insults and otherwise attacks Jews.
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 Aug, 2013 11:04 am
@Advocate,
Advocate wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:

Advocate wrote:

Frank Apisa wrote:

Everyone talking about peace being achievable in that region without the elimination of the state of Israel…is dreaming.

Okay…that is an estimate or a guess…not something I know.

But I would bet the ranch on it.

So long as there is a state of Israel in the Middle East…and there are any Arabs alive there also…there will never be true peace. People will hate and fight and be maimed and die…often and regularly.

The only solution that has even a remote chance for peace there…is to eliminate the state of Israel or move it somewhere else.

Frankly, the rest of the world (probably in the person of the United Nations) should take over possession of that area and subject everyone who lives there to its rules. This “holy city” nonsense should be considered just that…nonsense.



There might be peace if people like you were eliminated.



I doubt there will be peace in the Middle East no matter what. But the Jews and Arabs of that area got along relatively peacefully before the creation of the state of Israel...and there is no reason to suppose they could not get along that way if the state of Israel ceased to exist there.

But you would rather suggest "eliminating" "people like me!"


I guess it depend on how you interpret "relatively well." They didn't get along relatively well. There were constant attacks on the Jews, as well as Jewish counterattacks. How could the Jews live with that situation?



No...that was not the case at all.

For centuries, Jews and Arabs got along relatively peacefully in the area...certainly a LOT more peacefully than the European people were getting along with each other.

In fact, Jews and Arabs in that area got along much more peacefully than Jews and their European neighbors.

The existence of a state of Israel in that area is the kicker. So long as it exists, it is unreasonable to guess that there will be anything resembling peace there.

Frankly, I want to see peace there...for the Jews and for the Arabs.

It ain't going to happen with the state of Israel there.
0bserver
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Aug, 2013 08:47 pm
@Frank Apisa,
"The existence of a state of Israel in that area is the kicker. "

Maybe, but the kicker of that is antisemitism reaching its peak with the Holocaust. I'm sure if the Jews were treated in Europe as everyone else, there would be no Israel. So if you're looking for people to blame - try pre-Israel antisemites. What's ironic, they were the ones to scream "Jews, go to Palestine" in the last century, and they are the ones to scream "Jews, get out Palestine" now. I guess they just don't want Jews on this planet.
Frank Apisa
 
  3  
Reply Fri 30 Aug, 2013 07:47 am
@0bserver,
0bserver wrote:

"The existence of a state of Israel in that area is the kicker. "

Maybe, but the kicker of that is antisemitism reaching its peak with the Holocaust. I'm sure if the Jews were treated in Europe as everyone else, there would be no Israel. So if you're looking for people to blame - try pre-Israel antisemites. What's ironic, they were the ones to scream "Jews, go to Palestine" in the last century, and they are the ones to scream "Jews, get out Palestine" now. I guess they just don't want Jews on this planet.


I am not "blaming" anyone. I am merely making an observation about the existence of Israel in that area.

I am NOT anti-Jewish or anti-Israel. It just is obvious to me that so long as Israel continues to exist in that area...there will NEVER be peace.

Kerry's Mideast plan, in my opinion, is almost certainly doomed...and so is every other peace plan. As I see it, there will never ever be peace in that area so long as Israel is located there.
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Fri 30 Aug, 2013 08:28 am
@Frank Apisa,
Have you noticed that the universal retort of Isralie posters is always antisemitism, Holocaust, the world hates Jews. The more truthful of them refuse to acknowledge the crimes of the Isralie army and fall back on the tried and true words. The outright liers post untruth and when called on it than fall back on the words Holocaust and antisemitism. I have come to realize that getting the jewish posters to admit the truth is a lost cause.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 30 Aug, 2013 08:39 am
@RABEL222,
RABEL222 wrote:
Have you noticed that the universal retort of Isralie posters is always antisemitism,

If you anti-Semitic vermin don't want to be denounced for your vile anti-Semitism, then stop vomiting your vile anti-Semitism all over the internet.


RABEL222 wrote:
refuse to acknowledge the crimes of the Isralie army

More false accusations that Jews are "committing crimes".

You anti-Semitic vermin have no shame.


RABEL222 wrote:
I have come to realize that getting the jewish posters to admit the truth is a lost cause.

I bet you have an impressive Swastika collection.
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Fri 30 Aug, 2013 09:01 am
@Frank Apisa,
It's a convenient response, if the term anti-Boer had as much impact, South Africa would still be an apartheid state.

It also means they can ignore all legitimate criticism of Israel, because we're the ones with the problem, not them.

The fact that an inbred misanthropic imbecilic piece of **** like Oralboy, who celebrates the murder on an innocent British student, insults her grieving parents, fantasises about killing babies and nuking Italy and Russia, uses such a term, means it's meaningless.

Advocate still is happy to have Oralboy describe all Palestinians as vermin. They really are a couple of concentration camp guards in the making, a couple of low life misanthropes incapable of feeling positive emotions.

You take care Frank, enjoy your garden, it's beautiful.
Frank Apisa
 
  0  
Reply Fri 30 Aug, 2013 09:24 am
@izzythepush,
Izzy, (my opinions and observations)

I normally try to stay out of the "Israel" threads, because the chance of being labeled an anti-Semite, anti-Jew, or anti-Israel is so great...it is almost certain.

The problems in that area are horrendous...and the suffering ALL parties must endure is beyond understanding.

But it will never end.

Before the state of Israel was created...there was relative peace there between the Jews and Arabs who lived in the area. It wasn't perfect...but compared with how the Europeans got along with each other...it was relatively peaceful.

Then...the state of Israel was created...and all hell broke loose...and it will never be calm again.

Kerry's plan is doomed...just as all the plans before it were doomed.

There will be hatred, fighting, killing...and it will continue.

Sad!
 

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