NASTY SANDY CHURNING UP THE COAST

Which is why the computer models are of not much help....this is not normal enough to have allowed the gathering of enough data to know what will happen.

When in doubt selling fear is always the politically correct move though..the scaredy cat stupid masses will feel too comforted by what they mis-read as caring about them to get arount to thinking about how much the panic cost them in time, money and quality of life.

I been trying to think of the title of the book I was referring to where the concept of a knot and the great circle routes were first introduce to me.

It was a large coffee table book of my father with the Seven seas being part of the title and this would be in the late 1950s.

Would not mind having a copy of that book once more if I can think of the complete title.

The cost can be calculated in human lives also as you can not move millions of people in a short time period without the lost of some human lives in doing so.

I think the track of the storm is phenomenal. Being based upon iterative model solutions with several different parameter featured as primary clc in their field equations I think the ability to track storm paths has become a real science in the last 10 years. How many years ago a hurricane would just "Whow up" and noone had a fuckin clue where it was going ultimately. That was in my lifetime in the 60's and 70'sust after TElstar and just before NOAA satellites were common.
You are used to so much technology that you are a bit jaded when you make statements like that.
Could you do any better?? I think youd be guessing like the 60's unless you had satellite photos and trcking models that use inputs from hundreds (maybe thousands of edaphic and climate parameters)

You arent savvy enough in digital modelling to appreciate what weve accomplished in several predictive sciences.

Weather forecasting and oil drilling used to be major hit and miss with 50% accuracy. Toay were in the mid 90's
The fact is , this storm is being tracked and predicted now withe the error bar being less than 100miles wide.

Weather forecasting is very accurate in such things a s frost prediction. I dubscribe to an Accu-Weather forecast for my crops and weve already been spared early harvest of tobacco by the frost maps they provide me (I rent 40 acres to Amish who raise tobacco for cigar wrapper and its a special Connecticut leaf that pays over 2.00 a pound at prime. We get almost 2 T/acre so its well worth the effort and the risks are all weather and insect related. The weather services made us an additional pile of money by not picking based upon the frost extent maps (The weather services keep this kind of info in the v=back drawers because its not generally needed by your needs to plan what youre going to wear for work)

Ha! No, I live on the Canadian prairies. I was backing up your point about a few inches of rain. A storm like this can be brutal and is waaaay more than most cities/towns can handle.
The one we had in '04 was called the storm of the century... until we had the latest one, this year, 8 years later.
I've never been in a hurricane, much less a bad nor'easter or a tropical storm. Our storms are always fast, furious, lots of hail and potentials tornados.

I was listening to some meteorologists on the news. They say one of the things that will make this storm even worse is the autumn leaves. The fear is that sewage systems wont be able to handle the amount of water, and then add to that storm drains getting clogged with dead leaves.
They also said the storm is picking up steam, which is weird considering it's so close to land. None-the-less I'm pulling for you all.

yep Solomons Md ( I used to dive for sharks teeth there when I hd a small rock sample business when I was in college)
I was in college when menl lived with the dinosaurs

Its amazing that the 8 AM Tuesday point has the dot on top of my village



I dont think were gonna have a hay auction this week so those of you who were comin down to buy hay, Id wait a week or so

We go the other way..government comes up with some phoney bologna excuses to shut down transit forcing business to close and pressuring the citizens to stay hold up in their homes for a few days. I would rather have a truthful government which left such decisions up to the people...I don't take kindly to being "managed" by a habitual liar.

Your right, but they have to remember to put it out of their nose first. You made me chuckle and remember an old junior high stinging insult. The comedian Ron White told a story about some guy who believed he was such a mench that he would ride thru a hurricane on the beach strapped to a palm tree. White commented that you might remain strapped to a tree in 60-80 mph gusts, but there would be other things flying around in the air, not strapped down that would be able to slam into you. He of course gets paid to do stand up, and his delivery was much smoother than my version of it.
Everybody stay safe. if you are in an area not affected or already passed by the storm, please send me a pm.

Hi Ossobucco, glad to see you. I'll PM you later with my cell phone number and phone email address if you plan to stay tuned to the storm weary folks along the east coast. If you don't mind I could send you a note giving you an update. We do have a weather radio and plenty of batteries.
P.S. looks like the NY subways will be shut down tomorrow or earlier to avoid any weather related problems.

As far as the two pimply faced boys here on A2K and also a parallel universe, don't bother to send me anything because I have you blocked. The two of you aren't even interesting enough to annoy me, it's worse because you flat bore me zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. The Cliff Clavins of the internet,

Big brother government ordering evacuations can kill more people then can a hurricane.


http://www.chron.com/news/hurricanes/article/Exodus-weighs-heavily-in-death-toll-107-1502590.php

Exodus weighs heavily in death toll: 107
EVACUATION
Lessons come at high cost: 107 lives
CINDY HORSWELL and EDWARD HEGSTROM, Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle | Thursday, September 29, 2005 Comments 0 E-mail Print Page 1 of 1
A 2-year-old Houston girl crushed beneath the wheels of a pickup; a Sugar Land man and his two young children fatally pitched from their overturning car near Madisonville; a 92-year-old La Marque woman dead after losing consciousness while stuck in highway gridlock — Hurricane Rita's tales of sorrow rolled in as the death toll climbed.

A Chronicle survey of Houston-area counties and those along major evacuation routes to the north and west indicates that at least 107 people were killed by last week's hurricane or died in accidents or from health problems associated with the evacuation of 2.5 million people from their homes.One day before the expected announcement of a state-county-city task force to examine the problems that plagued the exodus, which doubled or tripled the travel time between Houston and other Texas cities, Mayor Bill White conceded, "I don't think the evacuation should be a disaster in itself."

State Rep. Garnet Coleman, D-Houston, whose wife spent more than 12 hours in a U.S. 290 traffic jam, called for a careful review of the evacuation. "People are downplaying the fact that people died in the evacuation and that is not right," he said. "Is the chance of dying greater in the movement than in the storm? That's the question we need to consider."

Calls for improvement
At Wednesday's City Council meeting, Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a Clear Lake dermatologist who spent 19 hours in evacuation traffic, called for the immediate opening of all highway lanes to outbound traffic in the event of a future evacuation.
"It was like we were yelling 'fire,' " she said of last week's evacuation, "but all the doors were shut."

White expressed concern at the state's slow response to city requests for assistance in traffic control and extra gasoline.

"They said they had a plan," he said. "They said they had a timetable."

But there was no plan for contraflow lanes, the mayor said. So, the city asked Gov. Rick Perry's staff in the middle of the night to get contraflow lanes working, and the effort got under way immediately after that.

Texas Homeland Security Director Steve McCraw said the state immediately responded to White's 6 a.m. Thursday request to open all Interstate 45 lanes to outbound traffic, but he admitted the effort could have been executed more efficiently. Hours elapsed as 700 troopers were brought in to close entrance ramps on the southbound lanes and other measures were taken to alter traffic flow.

Traffic on I-45 North already was gridlocked when they opened all lanes to northbound traffic. Interstate 10 was completely opened for outbound traffic several hours later.

The death toll for Hurricane Rita and the evacuation continued to climb Wednesday.

Preliminary death reports from law enforcement and medical examiners included 31 fatalities in Harris County, 23 in Dallas County, 10 each in Polk and Angelina counties, 12 in Montgomery County and three each in Fort Bend, Waller and Madison counties. Another dozen died in seven other counties.

Two cases questioned
In some cases, experts dispute the criteria used to link deaths to the storm. Though it generally was accepted that the storm could indirectly kill by triggering medical crises in the frail or elderly, at least two cases were questioned by University of Texas Medical Branch-Galveston ethicist Dr. William Winslade.
Winslade suggested the Harris County Medical Examiner's Office attributing the deaths of a 27-year-old schizophrenic found on a Houston street before the storm and the death of an infant who had suffered days of vomiting and diarrhea was a stretch. The Medical Examiner's office did not respond to a Chronicle inquiry about the deaths.

The deadliest single Rita-related incident came early Friday when 23 Bellaire nursing home patients were killed as a bus evacuating them to Arlington caught fire and exploded near Dallas. But the sorrow didn't stop there.

Two-year-old Angela Pérez of Houston was killed at 10 a.m. Friday when she was struck by an out-of-control pickup as her family rested on the side of U.S. 59 just south of Diboll in Angelina County. Diboll Police Chief Kent Havard said the 64-year-old driver of the truck apparently fell asleep at the wheel after spending more than 20 hours in evacuation traffic.

The driver was not charged in the accident, Havard said.

In Lufkin, Charlotte Ranger, 81, of Baytown, was struck and killed as she stepped from a chartered evacuation bus to enter a shelter, Lufkin police said.

Sugar Land resident Michael Alexander, 51, and his children, Omar, 11, and Amal, 8, were killed Sunday when their auto struck an I-45 median near Madisonville and overturned. The three, none of whom had worn seat belts, were ejected.

The family was returning from Arlington, where it had sought shelter from Rita.

Alexander's wife, Rima, was airlifted to a Temple hospital where she was in fair condition Wednesday. Another child, Dawlat, 12, escaped injury.

Law enforcement officers not prone to tears said they often wept openly as they dealt with the repercussions of the flight from Rita.

"It was horrible," said San Jacinto County Sheriff's spokesman J.J. Stitt.

Stitt helped provide a police escort for a charter bus filled with elderly residents from the Houston area en route to a local hospital. Earlier, the bus driver had made a 911 emergency call to authorities as his passengers sickened. By the time officers arrived, two were dead.

At Conroe Regional Medical Center, spokeswoman Fritz Guthrie said 600 patients arrived at the hospital during the evacuation — about 25 percent more than normal.

"Most of them arrived with effects of the heat — heat exhaustion and heat stroke," she said. Others came in with heart problems or blood clots in their legs from sitting too long. "We had people walking over from the freeway having babies."

La Marque resident Mary Lou Bourgeois, 92, became another Rita evacuation victim when she reluctantly joined her family fleeing via clogged I-10.

"She would never run," said her granddaughter Sheronda Bourgeois, 30. "She always said, 'If God is going to get you, he's going to get you.' "

After about 12 hours on the road Thursday — the family had gotten only as far as west Houston — the elderly woman began having difficulty breathing. She then lost consciousness. She died Friday at Memorial Hermann Memorial City Hospital.

"We all have our self-doubt about evacuating," her granddaughter said. "No one wanted to die like those people in New Orleans and we thought we were doing the right thing by taking our grandmother with us. It's hurt the way she left us.

"We would rather her be at home, surrounded by her children and great-grandchildren."


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

An earlier online version of this story overstated the number of deaths due to Hurricane Rita by two. The tally already included the New Caney couple believed to victims of carbon monoxide poisoning from their generator.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chronicle reporters Allan Turner, Matt Stiles, Terri Langford, Rosanna Ruiz, Cynthia Garza, Renee Lee, Todd Ackerman, Mike Tolson, Lise Olsen and Dale Lezon contributed to this report.

[email protected]

I think that gasbag is trying to hurt my and Hawkeye feelings........LOL

I agree Hawkeye I trust my own judgment far more then politicians and bureaucrats who are likely acting for others reasons then my and the public at large best interests.

Footnote the anti bureaucrat comment does not apply to my wife the most honest bureaucrat ever born by far.

Has the blocking/censor function been deployed?

Ha!

As I am still seeing gasbag postings telling me he had me on ignore I do not think so Hawkeye.

I was in Belize a few years ago. Part of the local history on Caye Caulker was of a guy who came to the island and opened up a surf shop. During a hurricane, he decided to surf with a parasail. He apparently crash landed into his own building and was killed instantly. Stupidity knows no bounds.

So are people who believe in what sound like an urban myth due to it validating her world outlook in this case.

Here ya go dumb dumb.

This page was exported from - Amandala Newspaper
Export date: Mon Oct 29 1:18:57 2012 / +0000 GMT

[url]amandala.com.bz/news/?p=252206&upm_export=pdf[/url]
American daredevil dies kitesurfing at Caye Caulker
The impact caused a 4x4 verandah post, to be ripped from its position leaving it at a slant.
Yesterday Amandala spoke with Diane as she headed to the Karl Heusner Memorial Hospital morgue to witness his post-mortem.
According to her, Flemrite had already come in from kitesurfing and was bringing down his kite when the incident occurred.
Kitesurfing, also known as kiteboarding, involves using a power kite to pull a small surfboard (on water), a wheeled board on land,
or a snowboard over snow.
According to Caye Caulker police, Flemrite had been warned about being out at sea in such weather, as the island was experiencing
a ?white rain,? where you cannot see anything out at sea, only ?a whiteness,? said the police.
They said that they had tried to bring Flemrite in, but he refused. They managed, however, to escort him from the reef to shore.
His wife said that she was unaware that police had warned her husband about being out at sea, as the weather was great that day,
with only some drizzle being experienced on the island.
Auxillou said that her husband, who usually goes either kitesurfing or windsurfing, had observed the weather conditions before
leaving the shop, and had decided that due to the direction of the wind, he would only kitesurf that day. Wind direction dictates
whether you can windsurf or kitesurf, said Auxillou.
At the time Flemrite was kitesurfing, however, Belize City was experiencing heavy rains from around noon. The weather lasted for
over five hours, but the bad weather was not evident on the island, said Auxillou.
It was around 2:00 p.m. when Flemrite went kitesurfing, said his wife, and he would usually be gone for about 3-4 hours, she
recalled.
Sometime around 4:00-4:30 p.m., Diane understands that her husband, who had already made it to shore, saw a squall approaching
and decided to come into the house. With the help of another man, he tried to bring down his kitesurf. Flemrite had already taken off
his board, but was still connected to the kite. Flemrite made several attempts, she said, but they failed, and when he tried once more,
the squall arrived and the heavy winds picked him up. He tried to maneuver the kite, but the wind was too strong.
A man who saw Flemrite?s danger grabbed his foot, said Auxillou, but due to the heavy wind the man was unable to hold him for
long, and he was lifted up into the air by the wind.
Auxillou said that at the time of the incident she was in the office, about a minute away, when she heard that something had
happened to him. She thought that he had fallen into the water and hurt himself.
By the time she arrived at the scene, Flemrite was already unconscious and bleeding from the eyes, mouth, ears and nose, she
recalled. He never regained consciousness.
Flemrite was 6 feet 3 inches in height, weighed about 190 pounds, and had been surfing for over 6 years, said his wife.
Originally, from Minneapolis, Minnesota, Flemrite was an aerospace engineer by education. He worked several years for Boeing,
based in St. Louis, Missouri, and then Long Beach, California.
He first visited Caye Caulker in the early 1990?s, and about 10 years later traveled by motorcycle from Los Angeles to Belize,
looking for real estate. After returning to the tranquil island of Caye Caulker, he met Diane and decided to settle in 2001, and
became a naturalized Belizean.
One year ago, he opened his business - Michael?s Windsurf and Water Sports.
Funeral services for Michael Flemrite are scheduled for sometime over the weekend. His body will be cremated and his ashes will be
scattered in the sea at an area known as the ?Swash,? a channel in the sea near Caye Caulker, said Diane.

I was told he died instantly.. got that part wrong. So much for the urban myth, eh!.

Hawkeye is it not interesting how many people are willing to do group think and never engage their own brains at all and in fact attack anyone who dare to question the 'accepted' thinking?

A cat one is a monster storm and the best method of dealing with it is to obey mandatory evacuation of millions of people with all the costs of such a evacuation and that cost include deaths as a result of such large scale evacuations.

Sheep hate wolves it would seems.

It's very interesting and unusual storm track you posted above. 80 sharp degree left turns are exceedingly rare event for such storms in the northern hemisphere. That I suspect is a measure of the increased rotational speed Sandy's fringes picked up in their encounter with the cold. high prerssure cell to the north (which rotates clockwise) , in the opposite direction of the low pressure system. The reversal back to the right forecast on Wednesday suggests the end of that mixing. I would guess that the encounter with cooler air would quickly reduce the thermal potential of the storm, but this is a pretty complicated case.