35
   

NASTY SANDY CHURNING UP THE COAST

 
 
BillRM
 
  0  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 05:56 am
@ehBeth,
LOL if you had been hit by both a cat 1 and a cat 5 you would never dream of stating that the cat is not the main issue!!!!!

As far as a cold front hitting at the same time as a hurricane that might make it more interesting however it the wind repeat the wind and the storm surge at the coast that does the main harm in a hurricane hit and that is independent of another storm front.
BillRM
 
  0  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:08 am
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
what if they over estimate it and thus cause an unnecessary $10 billion economic hit due to lost productivity?


Not only that Hawkeye but when you move millions the odds approach 100 percents that you are going to have some deaths resulting from doing so.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:22 am
@BillRM,
We dont get cat 5's in the NE, but remember, The Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes only considers peak sustained winds, not the size of the storm, the potentials for storm surge in a "bight" like the mid-Atlantic or the rainfall it brings. This storm is a cat 1 that will arrive in the densest population area of the nation at the times of high tides and
because itll be merging with another storm and the fact that the leaves are still on the trees, will be a problem for power outtages and coastal damages should it continue on its present model-predicted path.

I woulda said that the model prediction of the hurricane path was "a daydream" but the models take into consideration outlying weather and topo factors that are digitized and solved iteratively. The predicted torm track is showing major agreement now after the storm has left the Bahamas nd is coming up the coast.


Katrina was the most costly hurricane in US history and it was only cat3 declining to a tropical storm during the time it was destroying New Orleans. So your "cat 1, cat 5" comparisons are silly. This storm is fuckin huge (its over 1000 mi in diameter now), its coming ashore slowly, with a heavy rain making machine an with winds that will down trees over power line since the ground is already wet and tree roots are shallow in the NE.(especially in NJ where its mostly wet sand)

BillRM
 
  0  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:28 am
Below is the address for two webcams overlooking the ocean in Seaside Heights, nj where the show the jersey shores was filmed.

This is my old home town and the citizens are under order to leave however if I was still living there I would give the old middle finger to such an order when you are talking about a cat 1.

http://www.exit82.com/seacam/
Ragman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:32 am
@BillRM,
Reading comprehension is not your strong suit.

Quote:
...if I was still living there I would give the old middle finger to such an order


That will certainly eliminate a few problems!
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:33 am
@BillRM,
I would hope that youd sign the realease that NJ is asking all the recalcitrant "looky-Loo's" to sign. There are always the Harry Trumans of the world that we celebrate as stout hearted idiots who would give the finger to a volcano. (In your case, a hurricane because its "only a cat 1"

As long as they can identify your remains itll be fine
BillRM
 
  0  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:33 am
@farmerman,
Quote:
Katrina was the most costly hurricane in US history and it was only cat3 declining to a tropical storm during the time it was destroying New Orleans. So your "cat 1, cat 5" comparisons are silly


Let see a cat 3 have the winds energy of up to three times that of Sandy.
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:34 am
@Ragman,
I would imagine that the Floridians have several layers of nail holes in their house frames from clabbering up their glass shard windows from numerous hurricane "warnings"
OmSigDAVID
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:36 am
@farmerman,
I 'm concerned about basement flooding.
0 Replies
 
Ragman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:38 am
@farmerman,
yes, those holes provide a nice spot for termites to rest their weary hides.

Seriously, being that I rent I haven't been involved with doing that.
But I do hang out with my friends and sisters who put up their heavy hurricane shutters around late April and take them down in early December.

Amazing how lucky we've been in Sarasota...the storms that have been in the Gulf side of FL have missed our little spot in Paradise. Sure have had some neat parking lot surfing, though.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:38 am
@BillRM,
You dont get it do you. You are only thinking in 1 dimension. Stormes gather up their potential damage from a "Feedback" mechanism wherein a 75 mph storm that has 1000 mikes of rain "fetch" can do more damage than a quickly moving cat 3 or 4 in an area like Florida.
Irene was an "extra tropical disturbance" when it tore the **** out of Vermont and NY state last year. I think it did about 8 B of damage in that area alone. IT WASNTE EVEN A HURRICANE ANYMORE
Ragman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:42 am
@farmerman,
There 'ya go again, FM ... trying to make sense again where it does no earthly good at all.

Quote:
You are only thinking in 1 dimension

What an optimistic sort you are.
0 Replies
 
BillRM
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:43 am
@farmerman,
I
Quote:
would hope that youd sign the realease that NJ is asking all the recalcitrant "looky-Loo's" to sign.


The government try to frighten people however there is a good chance that moving all those people are going to result in far more deaths then leaving them in place at least in this case.

Second having been in at least five hurricanes ranging from cat 1s to a cat 5 I trust my judgment far most more then people covering their rear ends.

Yes, I know that covering the government officers rear end is more important then the lives and well being of the citizens.

BillRM
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:48 am
@farmerman,
Quote:
Feedback" mechanism wherein a 75 mph storm that has 1000 mikes of rain "fetch" can do more damage than a quickly moving cat 3 or 4 in an area like Florida.


Well off hand I do not know of a cat 5 that where more faster moving then Andrew and yet the area I live in afterward look like there was a WW2 old fashion thousands bombers raid on it and I would cheerfully put up with any number of slow moving cat 1s over one cat 3 or higher.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:52 am
@BillRM,
aaaaaaah, its the "Govt incompetence" gambit. I see. Excuse me but most of the hype is coming from The Weather Chnnel and the state is taking a lot of its guidance from them as well as NOAA.


Should we NOT be [reparing? Is that what you and HAwkee are pushing>
So youve been dead on at the barrel of 5 hurricanes? Or were you, like me, in a region where a hurricane came ahore and were, like me, end runned by the declining storm energy.

All the hurricanes I experienced were FLOOD events. (everyone says that flood are the source of the major damage, not winds cause winds quickly expend enrgy as the storm comes ashore)

Hurricane Agnes was a June hurricane in 1972 and it did huge damage byflooding all over the Susquehanna and Delaware Basins. entire towns like Harrisburg, York, and Wilkes Barre Pa were destroyed and it took more than a year to reconstruct.
Storm surge is the big deal and Saffir Simpson doesnt factor surges in the scale
BillRM
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 06:56 am
@farmerman,
Quote:
I would imagine that the Floridians have several layers of nail holes in their house


Most of us have metal windows coverings when needed and in my case I had both an anti-shattering film on the windows and metal coverings.
0 Replies
 
BillRM
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 07:09 am
@farmerman,
Quote:
not winds cause winds quickly expend enrgy as the storm comes ashore)


The main cause of deaths is wind and storm surge right at the shore not flooding due to rain. Property damage is another issue.

As the old home in Seaside was build with brick walls and the roof was build extra heavy to carry the weight of stale shingles and the home is 15 feet or so above ground level as a car garage was under the house it is far safer then being on the road fleeing a cat 1.
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 07:16 am
@BillRM,
tell that to the 1000 dead people in New Orleans who were killed by the resulting floding

YOU seem to be wanting to engage in a weather based "big dick" contest and Im sorry Billy, I dont have the urge to engage you cause Im busy picking up and battening down. You havent answeed my question though:

ARE YOU ADVOCATING THAT WE DONT TAKE PRECAUTIONS AT ALL??? So I take it that you dont have any storm riders on your insurance policies or flood insurance?
aybe youre AMISH
OmSigDAVID
 
  1  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 07:23 am
@farmerman,
The Amish don 't have insurance ?
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Sun 28 Oct, 2012 07:24 am
@BillRM,
Quote:
old home in Seaside was build with brick walls and the roof was build extra heavy to carry the weight of stale shingles and the home is 15 feet or so above ground level as a car garage was under the house it is far safer then being on the road fleeing a cat 1.
When AGnes hit in Pa, the biggest damage source in rural areas was "Ground water flooding" where the water table rose quickly and put uniaxial stresses on basement walls and collapsed the entire house.
In the cities the 20"' rainfall in the mountains collected and major flooding occured on the days AFTER the storm was gone. homes and businesses along riverront "Business park" were destroyed to the tune of about 8 B dollars.
Fla and NJ south of Trenton dont even have much topography that collects and distributes large flood water amounts, whereas PA is a mountainous state as was Vermont that Irene caused big buck damage.

The only reason that your "most damage comes from oceanside storm surge" is because thats where the most hurricanes occur. Katrina didnt fit that mold and was the single most expensive damage causing hurricane.
A storm like thos in PA or upstate NJ or NYC could be a major flood event like AGnes
 

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