47
   

Two weeks into Occupy Wall Street protests, movement is at a crossroads

 
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:09 pm
@TheLeapist,
TheLeapist wrote:
You can't forget, though, that these tycoons have means of controlling the elected officials. So in theory, scaring them into giving up that game could be just as effective, if not more effective than trying to persuade government officials themselves.


In practice it isn't. Not without application of real force and this isn't a situation that calls for it. A real populist revolution is in nobody's interest right now (i.e. real pitchforks and torches) and that is the only way that it happens. Power does not shift from upper to lower classes on the basis of mere empty threats.

So let's go with the whole using the democracy thing. You are not going to scare the rich into doing anything else but leveraging more of their power (which they have too, remember).

Quote:
Of course letting the government directly know that we as people won't stand for them being puppets to the "players" could work as well.


It's at least worth a try, no?

Quote:
Basically what I'm trying to say is I can see the motivation behind both sides of the argument of who is really at fault and who's door we should be breaking down. Haha.


I hear you. I don't blame people for being angry, I just think it's not that intelligently focused. As the saying goes. The lower classes tend to fight class war unintelligently. They yell more than they lobby, they pat each other on the backs and talk about just how fantastically evil the other side is and all the while the upper classes tend to just keep quiet and focus on judicious use of their own soft power to change things that actually matter: the rules of the game.

This is why the system, the rules of the game, goes unchanged (and as I predict, will continue to) despite all the hot air. Because it's being wasted for dramatic license and good theater.

Last night I was thinking that they should try to draft a bill, and convince a representative to... (bear with me now, it's from left-field) represent them. And if their representatives do not support them (not with some slogans, but I had this idea that they could use their votes!) I think they should try something positively ballsy like not actually voting for them anyway, with the incessant excuse that it could actually be worse (that is a completely myopic outlook).
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:12 pm
@TheLeapist,
If there's a player bribing the ref it should be against the rules. I think we should definitely enforce the rules the society agrees upon. But the very problem is that this pretty much happened without a whole lot of rule-breaking and the rules need to be implemented. You can't get the player kicked out if the rules do not permit it.

And there's nothing wrong with lobbying, people only see it as evil if the other guy is doing it but it's a fundamental part of Democracy (that yes, needs regulation too, but let's stick to how it's inherently not bad). The masses should learn to more effectively lobby themselves.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:16 pm
@georgeob1,
Plus many marriages the world over have their own understandings between the spouses - so cheating is not a universal concept re removal, or even a perjorative in some cultures. (sorry, tangent, still listening to the points of view)
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:18 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Quote:
This is why the system, the rules of the game, goes unchanged (and as I predict, will continue to) despite all the hot air. Because it's being wasted for dramatic license and good theater.
you are displaying your ignorance here...we are not in the fighting stage yet, were are just beginning to amp up the will to fight. Picture members of a football team punching lockers before a game, according to you this is a stupid waste of energy that does not help win the game. It does.
reasoning logic
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:22 pm
@Fido,
Amen preacher, it's nice to hear someone is being realistic!
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:22 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Quote:

This message should have been directed at Obama, not "the rich".


Okay, this is exactly what I mean when I say that you have a basic misunderstanding of the dynamics of this situation.

What exactly do you think Obama COULD or WILL do, if anger is directed his way? Nothing. He can do nothing to remedy the situation. He has zero ability to enact any of the changes that either you or I are calling for. Only Congress can do that, and it's been pretty clear for a long time now that this simply isn't going to happen outside of a massive public outcry for it to happen. And not towards Congress, but towards those who are currently buying off Congress - the extremely wealthy people who run our financial system.

The Republicans will block each and every single thing he tries to do to remedy the situation. They have effectively prevented the one weak piece of legislation that was passed (Dodd-Frank) from having any effect. Big banks have spent almost 2 billion dollars lobbying against every element of that bill that they can, and they have gotten their GOP and DEM allies in the Senate to prevent the bill from having any real effects at all.

I shouldn't have to point out to you that our current government dynamic prevents anything from happening on a legislative level without major pressure being applied to those who are fighting to block the other side. And it's appropriate to do so.

Quote:
I think the left should actually vote Republican to show the Democrats they aren't bluffing and that they can't just play lip service to these ideals. You'd rather try spooking the rich into this happening.


I think this is an absolutely foolish plan, one that would lead to an incredible number of bad things happening to our country, and it's hard for me to even believe you put any thought into it whatsoever before proposing it. What would be far, far more appropriate would be to apply merciless and unrelenting pressure towards the Dems who are currently allied with big banks, while pressuring the private individuals who run those banks as well.

A quote from one of the Fat Cats in question, from the Bloomberg piece I linked to yesterday -

Quote:
Phelan said he’s worried about “social unrest.”

“My taxes are going up,” he said. “Everybody hates me. I have two friends who bought land in New Zealand. They’re trying to convince me to go.”


This is exactly what I am hoping to see over the next several years - strong and explicit societal condemnation for those who place the acquisition of personal wealth above all other societal concerns, and who would continue to blame the gov't for the greed of their own industry. I think such a moral position is toxic to our society and we will all be better off in a future where the acquisition of wealth is looked on more with disdain than it is envy.

You're absolutely right that I would rather attack the source of the problem than the symptom of the problem... you get much, much better results that way. But, we'll have to wait and see.

Cycloptichorn
TheLeapist
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:23 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Ant the flaw in your argument is that your observation above is based on supposition, not fact, and very likely isn't true.
You're nitpicking and ignoring the fact that the general concept is sound.

Another analogy, if a spouse loses all couple's savings gambling, indulging in the basic desire to gain a lot from a little, even if he had the best of intentions of becoming rich, should he not be punished for that? If not divorce then at least extremely restricted control of their finances?
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:25 pm
@hawkeye10,
Don't be silly, I know what role this plays in politics works and have seen a lot more dramatic examples of how populist politics works first-hand. My point is that my knowledge of the state of the political activism of this demographic is sucht that it suggests to me that it will not meaningfully develop beyond this stage.

I am willing to bet more than rhetoric on it. Depending on what the concrete goals are defined as, I would bet money that they will not be achieved in the subsequent 24 months. My bet is on the vapidity of the movement, and not the role that this kind of protest plays.

My point is that, sadly, I think its its only stock and store.
Thomas
 
  3  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:38 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
I asked you once and I'll ask you again. If you think that they should have known, then why is it that your favorite economical minds had no idea as well?

I disagree with the premise of your question. While it is true that my favorite economic minds---including Paul Krugman---failed to predict the specifics of this banking crisis, they did have a correct idea of what causes banking crises in general, and what policies help prevent them in general. To make sure this isn't wishful thinking on my part, I just checked Krugman's first popular book, The Age of Diminished Expectations (1st ed. 1990 / 3rd ed. 1997). Its description of the Savings-and-Loans scandal, on pages 157--165, discusses bank runs, their potential to cause recessions, and banking regulations that can prevent crises like it. He's saying pretty much the same things in that book as he d0es in his recent Op-Eds on the Great Recession.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:48 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Okay, this is exactly what I mean when I say that you have a basic misunderstanding of the dynamics of this situation.

What exactly do you think Obama COULD or WILL do, if anger is directed his way? Nothing.


I don't think you give me enough credit for understanding how the US political system works. I know his limitations but don't think he's even acting to the full extent within them.

When the bailouts were being made too juicy for the banks, he had a LOT more he could have done. He had leverage then. The left was calling for him to demand privatization of these banks but like everything about the left these days he gets to not do it and blame Republican intransigence. I think it's time to call the Democrat's bluff on this and stop being the party of only talking but always compromising.

Quote:
He can do nothing to remedy the situation. He has zero ability to enact any of the changes that either you or I are calling for.


He has a bully pulpit doesn't he? I know how it works, and how he can't just decide on his own. But isn't he trying to pass a jobs bill? Then why can't he try to pass a regulation bill?

Instead of him just making quips about planes he should try. And as for the representatives I am talking about them too. Here is what I had to say about that:

Robert Gentel wrote:
Last night I was thinking that they should try to draft a bill, and convince a representative to... (bear with me now, it's from left-field) represent them. And if their representatives do not support them (not with some slogans, but I had this idea that they could use their votes!) I think they should try something positively ballsy like not actually voting for them anyway, with the incessant excuse that it could actually be worse (that is a completely myopic outlook).


Quote:
Only Congress can do that, and it's been pretty clear for a long time now that this simply isn't going to happen outside of a massive public outcry for it to happen. And not towards Congress, but towards those who are currently buying off Congress - the extremely wealthy people who run our financial system.


But they can just throw their rehetoric behind the anger at fat cats too and get away with placating it by being on the right side. But this anger doesn't' bother to check the votes and actually bother to hold them accountable.

No matter what, they will vote left/right because their choice is the "lesser of two evils". There is no political accountability. This movement should be targeting representatives that are up for election next and promising to spend political capital on defeating them if they do not, you know, represent them.

But no, the masses are manipulated by rhetoric about sides, and who's the villain and the bullshit like that. Why are you giving Obama a free pass? Of course he can do something, why isn't he stumping for a regulation bill? You can't blame it on Republican obstructionism when he doesn't even bother to try. And Obama has not bothered to try to really change the fundamental rules of the game. He can sure fire off some nice barbs at CEO pay though. He's got your back there.

Quote:
The Republicans will block each and every single thing he tries to do to remedy the situation. They have effectively prevented the one weak piece of legislation that was passed (Dodd-Frank) from having any effect. Big banks have spent almost 2 billion dollars lobbying against every element of that bill that they can, and they have gotten their GOP and DEM allies in the Senate to prevent the bill from having any real effects at all.


So by all means it sounds like this movement needs a lot more organization and should maybe target the use of their political capital better.

Quote:
I shouldn't have to point out to you that our current government dynamic prevents anything from happening on a legislative level without major pressure being applied to those who are fighting to block the other side. And it's appropriate to do so.


This isn't pressure, it's venting. Pressure would be to point the megaphone at the politicians, not let them get away with scapegoating (the fat cats and the obstructionist opposition).

Quote:
Quote:
I think the left should actually vote Republican to show the Democrats they aren't bluffing and that they can't just play lip service to these ideals. You'd rather try spooking the rich into this happening.


I think this is an absolutely foolish plan, one that would lead to an incredible number of bad things happening to our country, and it's hard for me to even believe you put any thought into it whatsoever before proposing it. What would be far, far more appropriate would be to apply merciless and unrelenting pressure towards the Dems who are currently allied with big banks, while pressuring the private individuals who run those banks as well.


You think it's so bad because you think like to think Democrats are angelic and Republicans are evil but I do not share that viewpoint and as far as financial policy is concerned with regulation they've been identical anyway. There's very little difference between the party positions and a single Republican term is unlikely (though Bush makes this harder to claim) to harm the country as dramatically as the permanent gridlock of blaming the other side is going to.

So I don't buy the apocalypse theories of how everyone must vote party lines or it could be "much worse". That is part and parcel of the problem to me. I want the Democrats to lose miserably in the upcoming elections because they deserve to. They fail to represent their constituents and have only the weak excuse of the opposition being intransigent to offer. Either side's causes can survive an opposition term better than it can this gridlock.

Quote:
This is exactly what I am hoping to see over the next several years - strong and explicit societal condemnation for those who place the acquisition of personal wealth above all other societal concerns, and who would continue to blame the gov't for the greed of their own industry.


And it's exactly what I don't want to see. Railing at abstract concepts like "greed" (a hypocritical bit of nonsense if there ever was one in a society predicated on it) instead of concrete legislation like capitalization requirement rollback.

Quote:
I think such a moral position is toxic to our society and we will all be better off in a future where the acquisition of wealth is looked on more with disdain than it is envy.


And unlike you, I'm not against wealth. So this is where you lose people like me from your movement. Lose enough and you peter out and accomplish nothing, like I predict will happen.

Quote:
You're absolutely right that I would rather attack the source of the problem than the symptom of the problem... you get much, much better results that way. But, we'll have to wait and see.


I hope I'm wrong, and that my prediction that this will affect no meaningful change are words I have to eat.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:51 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Quote:
My bet is on the vapidity of the movement, and not the role that this kind of protest plays.
Jesus...we are a largely poorly educated people with a history of being manipulated by fear in a society that does an extremely poor job of developing leaders....and you expect this to happen fast? It is going to take awhile to cultivate the will to take on the elite, and to develop the leadership that can take us there.
Robert Gentel
 
  0  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 03:59 pm
@Thomas,
Thomas wrote:
I disagree with the premise of your question. While it is true that my favorite economic minds---including Paul Krugman---failed to predict the specifics of this banking crisis, they did have a correct general idea of what causes banking crises, and what policies help prevent them.


I disagree with this. They have loquaciously explained how they had it wrong on the macro level too. The academic consensus was that the system was much more stable than this. This is plainly spoken about in the paper I linked to where they study why their own models failed systemically.

If the system was more stable than this, the risk was smaller. It was not so it was not. Do you not agree that this fundamentally affects risk assessment? That the system being less stable than it was thought to be was lacking information that obscured the full extent of the risk being undertaken?

Quote:
To make sure this isn't wishful thinking on my part, I just checked Krugman's first popular book, The Age of Diminished Expectations (1st ed. 1990 / 3rd ed. 1997). Its description of the Savings-and-Loans scandal, on pages 157--165, discusses bank runs, their potential to cause recessions, and banking regulations that can prevent crises like it. He's saying pretty much the same things in that book as he d0es in his recent Op-Eds on the Great Recession.


Fine I suspected I would have to quote Krugman himself:

How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: September 2, 2009



Quote:
It’s hard to believe now, but not long ago economists were congratulating themselves over the success of their field. Those successes — or so they believed — were both theoretical and practical, leading to a golden era for the profession. On the theoretical side, they thought that they had resolved their internal disputes. Thus, in a 2008 paper titled “The State of Macro” (that is, macroeconomics, the study of big-picture issues like recessions), Olivier Blanchard of M.I.T., now the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, declared that “the state of macro is good.” The battles of yesteryear, he said, were over, and there had been a “broad convergence of vision.” And in the real world, economists believed they had things under control: the “central problem of depression-prevention has been solved,” declared Robert Lucas of the University of Chicago in his 2003 presidential address to the American Economic Association.



Quote:
Last year, everything came apart.

Few economists saw our current crisis coming, but this predictive failure was the least of the field’s problems. More important was the profession’s blindness to the very possibility of catastrophic failures in a market economy. During the golden years, financial economists came to believe that markets were inherently stable — indeed, that stocks and other assets were always priced just right. There was nothing in the prevailing models suggesting the possibility of the kind of collapse that happened last year. Meanwhile, macroeconomists were divided in their views. But the main division was between those who insisted that free-market economies never go astray and those who believed that economies may stray now and then but that any major deviations from the path of prosperity could and would be corrected by the all-powerful Fed. Neither side was prepared to cope with an economy that went off the rails despite the Fed’s best efforts.


Emphasis mine.


That the economic and financial world was blindsided by this on a more fundamental way than just predicting this particular crisis is a premise that I really think is more than adequately borne out by the available evidence.

I don't know of a single economist of repute that is saying otherwise, and your favorite one is no exception.
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 04:00 pm
@hawkeye10,
No, I'm very clear in that I do not expect it to happen fast, if at all.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 04:13 pm
@failures art,
On a flight back from San Diego, where I've spent the last 4 days. They actually have their own little Occupy San Diego show going on here. I'm not good at judging crowd sizes, but I don't think there are more than a couple of hundred protesters involved. They've established a camp in some park and, from what I could tell, they conducted marches two or three times a day.

The entire length of their march is about a city block long, and it's past your window before you know it. Consists of mostly people in their 20s and 30s, dressed in hippy garb, and carying signs and beating drums.

No one in the city is talking about it, not even the cab drivers.

Sunday or Monday night a man jumped from a building and landed quite near one of the rallies. Don't know if he came down in the midst of the protestors, but it put an end to the show which then converted to a candle light vigil for the unfortunate fellow.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 04:51 pm
@Thomas,
Their social status is relevant to the extent that people of standing and power are more likely to have the ability to make good on a declaration of national independence than those who are behind the OWS manifesto.

From what I can see, which is admittedly limited, unless there is a rather drastic change in tactics, the entire OWS "movement" (including it's manifestation here in San Diego) will not amount to more than a silly Mummer's parade with occassional, unfrotunate violent incidents.

Of course I can be woefully underestimating those who it might be said are "organizing" the parade, and one day a new socialist nation will be honoring them as its founders...but I seriously doubt it.

To the extent that they are willing to refrain from violence, these folks are harmless. I don't live and work in a city where their antics might affect my day to day routine and so I can't judge the scope of their nuisance, but at some point someone will add up the additional costs they are creating for the locations they have "occupied" and we'll have a better idea.

0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 05:00 pm
@Thomas,
Thank you Thomas, but Cyclo is just one of those low bred scoundrels who twisted by cramping envy, strikes out at his betters. Cool
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 05:08 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
I remind you once again that we're not in court. You're not owed that level of evidence in order for my argument to be a perfectly valid one. So, your demand is immaterial, and really just a dodge.


I'm saving this one. Smile
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 05:29 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

Thank you Thomas, but Cyclo is just one of those low bred scoundrels who twisted by cramping envy, strikes out at his betters. Cool


... or those who would style themselves that way, at least.

I don't know why people assume that others who are happy with their lives would be envious of people that happen to have more money. Why is that? Do you honestly believe that I'm envious of you, or anyone else?

What I am angry about, isn't that others have more, it's that I have to deal with the fallout of their incessant attempts to garner more at the expense of all other considerations. I don't give a **** if someone's wealthy as long as it doesn't affect me negatively; why would I care? It's immaterial to my life. But what DOES matter, is when the job market is destroyed by these people. When my environment is destroyed by them. When we see tremendous amounts of household wealth lost because of their gambling addiction and need to prove that they have a bigger dick than the next rich guy. I shouldn't have to deal with these negative effects - nobody should - and yet we do, precisely because those who are driven by avarice are unwilling to blunt their ambitions out of respect for others.

Cycloptichorn
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 05:59 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
That the economic and financial world was blindsided by this on a more fundamental way than just predicting this particular crisis is a premise that I really think is more than adequately borne out by the available evidence.

I don't know of a single economist of repute that is saying otherwise, and your favorite one is no exception.

I cited you a book and chapter from the 1990s where Krugman himself refutes your interpretation of what he said in the blog post you quoted. He describes the Savings and Loans crisis, explains what caused it and what would have prevented it, and states that he thinks S&L is a model for the banking system as a whole. I encourage you to go to a library and read the chapter. (I'd copy&paste it for you, but I'm too lazy to copy&paste from a paper book.)
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Oct, 2011 06:05 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

I don't know why people assume that others who are happy with their lives would be envious of people that happen to have more money. Why is that? Do you honestly believe that I'm envious of you, or anyone else?

What I am angry about, isn't that others have more, it's that I have to deal with the fallout of their incessant attempts to garner more at the expense of all other considerations.


What ! Cyclo envious and angry ? As the bard wrote. "Methinks the lady doth protest too much". His views are the essence of class envy and anger.

He denies absolutely that misguided attempts by government to steer mortgage lending to low ingome folks and to limit the customary down payment requirements tracitionally imposed by banks had anything at all to do with the Mortgage bubble and the subsequent collapse (primarily resulting from the large scale default on sub prime mortgages). He resolutely denies that the profligate giveaway spending of the current administration can jeapordize our financial future and demands even more.

Instead he lays it all at the feet of evil members of another class.
 

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