Kiss My Ass Irene

We see if I am right that Bloomberg gets a tongue lashing from angry citizens
for shutting down the city and making over 300,ooo people leave home for no good reason.

Yesterday a friend told me she heard that our local Brooklyn supermarket—about a block from Zone C, which could experience flooding from a Category 3 or 4 storm—was out of bottled water. (Irene is a Category 1 storm but a really nasty one.) I went there today to verify this third-hand information, and it turned out to be false: The shelves were teeming with all manner of Poland Spring, SmartWater, and Evian. Even though people mere blocks away had already been evacuated because of Hurricane Irene, the place was not much more crowded than on a normal Saturday. My Twitter feed was littered with reports of panic in the Whole Foods over in Manhattan, so I was surprised to find the outer boroughs less dedicated to hurricane preparedness.


Hoarding of liquor, however, was another matter. "Short lines in the grocery store and long lines in the wine store," reported a friend in an adjacent neighborhood. So I visited a few local liquor stores to see what kind of business they've been doing.
"It's Christmas in August," says Sherry Rader, manager of Smith & Vine. She says that hurricane hoarders are gravitating toward lower prices than average, but at a much higher volume. One Smith & Vine customer named Suzanne says she is planning to buy four bottles. "That's for three adults, if you want to do the math," she says. (The math: 1.33 bottles per adult.) She expects that cache to last her for two days.
At Henry Street Wines & Liquors, owner Dominick Tutrone says he's also been selling a great deal of wine, but he's also been nearly cleaned out of high-end bourbon, too, and he has an empty shelf to prove it. "I heard some woman comment that you don't need ice for bourbon, and it's strong and powerful, and people want to be, I guess, mellow," Tutrone says.
And locals are mellow: Walking down Smith Street, the retail center of the neighborhood, at around 4 p.m. on Saturday, you would have no idea a hurricane was coming except for the occasional duct tape cross stuck to a plate-glass window. The wine bar JakeWalk was nearly full, and guys in matching T-shirts and goofy hats were spilling out of the sportier Angry Wade's. "It looks like Irene's going to be a dud," said Suzanne. The rest of the neighborhood appears to agree.

Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the storm's greatest damage. High tide is near 7 - 8 pm EDT tonight, meaning that the storm surges occurring now will be some of Irene's most damaging. The highest surges measured at any of NOAA's regular tide gauges at 8 pm were 4.5 feet at Sewells Point in Norfolk Virginia and Oregon Inlet, NC. Higher surges are occurring father inland where narrow inlets funnel the storm surge to higher elevations. It remains unclear if the ocean will overtop Manhattan's sea wall at The Battery Sunday morning during the 8 am high tide. Latest storm surge forecasts from SUNY Stony Brook predict a peak water level of 2.4 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 7:15 am Sunday, which would put the ocean right at the top of the sea wall. Presumably, waves from the hurricane's winds would then push some water over the top of the wall, but it is uncertain whether or not this would cause significant flooding. The storm surge was already 1 foot at 8 pm tonight. Storm surge flooding continues to be a major concern all along the coast of Long Island Sound; I recommend the SUNY Stony Brook storm surge page for those interested in looking at observed and predicted storm surge levels along coast New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

Wind damage
The emergence of Irene's eye over water will slow the storm's rate of weakening, but the storm is under too much wind shear to allow it to intensify. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, and also the large majority of the tropical storm-force winds. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph. Coastal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the New York CIty area will mostly see top winds in the 40 - 55 mph range, since they will be on the weaker left side of the storm. Winds on the upper floors of skyscrapers will be up to 30% higher, but I expect there will be only isolated problems with New York City skyscrapers suffering blown out windows. The winds from Irene in New York City will be no worse than those experienced during some of the city's major Nor'easter winter storms of the past twenty years.

Tornadoes
Four tornadoes have been spawned by Irene, two in coastal North Carolina last night, and two in coastal Virginia today. At least two homes have been destroyed, and ten others damaged by the tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for all of coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

How's everyone doing to the North?

Hurricane IRENE Forecast Discussion
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

US Watch/Warning Storm Surge Probs Position Estimate

000
WTNT44 KNHC 280257
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

IRENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT
THE RADAR DEPICTION HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE THIS
EVENING HAS FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 92 KT AND SFMR WINDS
OF 66 KT IN A SMALL AREA MORE THAN 100 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WIND FIELD GRAPHICS BASED ON THE FOUR-QUADRANT RADII WILL DEPICT AN
UNREALISTICALLY LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/14...AND IRENE REMAINS ON
TRACK. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SKIRT THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER IRENE BECOMES A
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
INTO THE DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS ON LONG ISLAND...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF MOST HURRICANES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE
WIND FIELD OF IRENE...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TO
BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS.

MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE
SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH
AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. WINDS AT THE
30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 37.3N 75.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 44.0N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 48.5N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/0000Z 52.4N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0000Z 57.7N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0000Z 60.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0000Z 61.2N 24.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT34 KNHC 280256
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT
SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED
OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES...205 KM...TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AS
FAR NORTH AS THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...EXPECTED BY NOON SUNDAY. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS...WATER LEVEL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

You've got to remember, BFN, to insert some
outlandish distortions in your posts to keep Finn interested.

He's not big on facts.

In NY, we have rain, but not much wind.

Three bridges to New York City's flood-prone Rockaways are closed because of rising winds as Hurricane Irene advances toward the city.

Officials said early Sunday that the Broad Channel bridge, the Cross Bay Veterans Memorial Bridge and the Marine Parkway-Gil Hodges Memorial Bridge were closing. It's unclear when they will reopen.

The Rockaways are on a peninsula off Queens. The city ordered all of the Rockaways evacuated by 5 p.m. Saturday. With the three bridges closed, there is one other route out of the area. But flooding could make it impassable.

Authorities also have closed the lower level of the George Washington Bridge and 1 of the bridge's approaches in New Jersey. The bridge's upper deck is still open.

According to NWS you have 16 MPH winds, gusts to 24, and have gotten 3 inches of rain over the last 6 hours.

As Hurricane Irene moved north, with its winds and torrents of rain, it caused tornadoes in at least four states, and officials warned they could be as dangerous as the hurricane itself.

Tornadoes were reported in New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Delaware's Gov. Jack Markell said he believed a tornado tore through 17 homes near Lewes, Del., and off Rehoboth Beach, the National Weather Service reported a waterspout -- essentially, a tornado out at sea. There were no reports of major injuries.

At least five homes in the Sandbridge area of Virginia Beach, Va., sustained major damage from a tornado, said Mary Hancock, a spokeswoman for the city, but the area had already been evacuated and there were no injuries reported. Several other homes in the area were less seriously damaged.

"The category of hurricane doesn't explain all the risk," Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate said. "Rainfall and tornadoes are not tied to the category of a storm ... some of the most devastating floods have been from tropical storms."

...
In fact, most of the deaths from hurricanes historically do not come from the hurricane itself, but from its side effects -- flooding, downed trees and power lines, and tornadoes. The first death from Irene in North Carolina came even before the storm arrived; it was a man who reportedly had a heart attack while boarding up his house.