@hawkeye10,
I agree with you that there is no way to know what happened, particularly since there will be no trial.
As you well know, there is a big difference between being legally innocent, and being innocent in terms of how others see you in the court of public opinion--and this is a man with a high public profile--his image does, or should, matter to him.
I've always felt that part of the maid's initial credibility, in the eyes of the hotel staff and law enforcement, was bolstered by DSK's reputation regarding women--which included his being known for somewhat aggressive overtures. I'm not so sure they would have been so fast to believe accusations made against someone without such a reputation. But, her story seemed to dovetail with what was known about him, and that may help to explain why they took him off that plane.
So, I think his reputation, regarding his conduct toward women, wasn't so great before this incident, and now it's even worse, because this incident resulted in massive world-wide publicity about other past questionable actions on his part. And that sort of information would cause many people to view him as being capable of a criminal sexual act.
Her credibility problems don't alter the possibility that he may have assaulted her, and now there won't be a trial to help sort out fact from fiction. Truthfully, I think he would have been better off having a trial and letting his lawyers pulverize her on the witness stand.
I'm not siding with the alleged victim at all. She has definite credibility problems. Some, like her asylum claims, I can understand and overlook--she is uneducated and illiterate and might have relied on bad "expert" advice when she submitted her asylum application. Her inconsistent description of what she did immediately after the alleged assault by DSK I find more troubling, and considerably more relevant to the current case. And I think what the woman and her lawyer did recently, with her round of media interviews, was bizarre in the context of a criminal case.
She seems to be a woman who is easily led around, especially by men, which is consistent with what her brother has said about her background and how she was raised, and now her lawyer is the one leading her around for his own reasons. Unlike you, I really don't see this woman as a crafty schemer, I see her as someone who is easily duped, particularly by men, and probably that includes her male friend who is in jail in Arizona who used her bank accounts. This is not a sophisticated or savvy woman. Truthfully, I don't think she has the smarts to set someone up for a phony sexual assault charge to get money out of him. I'm more inclined to think he did assault her and that someone suggested the idea of money to her afterward.
So, the criminal legal case may be drawing to a close, but that doesn't mean he didn't assault her, it just means she would have been an awful witness at trial, too awful for Vance to risk. But I think DSK would have been better off with a trial that really cleared his name. I've said all along I was waiting for the trial.
And she still has a civil suit against DSK, plus a defamation suit against the NY Post.