@BillRM,
Quote:Here is a high power lawyer saying the same thing I neen saying this case will not go to trial for the very reasons I already gave.
He may be saying that it will end in a settlement, but he's not saying it for the same reasons you have given.
Your reasons have revolved around the hotel maid lying about a sexual assault and then blackmailing DSK for money in order to agree not to testify against him. That's not what Dershowitz is saying.
Sure the maid might want a "big payday", given the life-upending situation she has now found herself in, the implicit and expected threats by the defense to destroy her good name, and possibly her child's life as well, with a smear campaign, on top of her very possibly having been sexually assaulted by DSK. If she forgoes the opportunity to tell the world what he did to her in that hotel suite at a criminal trial, and thereby helps him to avoid legal punishment for his acts, why shouldn't she expect a big payday? Why shouldn't she be compensated for the life-altering damages done to her by his actions? None of this means that seeking money was the reason she reported her assault to the police. And, if her account of that assault wasn't very credible, and backed up by forensic evidence, it wouldn't be worth the several million dollars that Dershowitz thinks she might receive in a pre-trial civil settlement. Dershowitz's reasoning is really based on the assumption that this woman poses a very definite credible threat to DSK, a threat which might not be neutralized at trial, even with intense cross-examination by a pro like Brafman. DSK and his defense team need her to go away, no matter what it costs them, if they can pull that off.
If you have followed Dershowitz's comments on this case from the outset, you would know that he has said all along that the situation looks very bad for DSK. Dershowitz does not feel that this is an easily winnable case for the defense. And that's the primary reason he thinks this will end in a settlement, even if it costs DSK several million dollars, because DSK needs this witness to go away to avoid the possibility of his spending the next several years in jail.
Dershowitz rightly points out that the first defense offered for DSK was that he had an alibi--that he wasn't even in the suite at the time the maid alleged. When that lie fell apart, and it was clear that the state had forensic evidence, he had to admit to sexual contact with a claim that it was "not forcible". But Dershowitz clearly feels that trying to convince a jury that this sexual contact, with a stranger who had entered his room believing it to be unoccupied, suddenly somehow became consensual sex, would be a very hard sell to a jury--and it would likely involve putting DSK on the stand and exposing him to cross-examination about his past sexual encounters, or having his account of what went on in the hotel suite appear considerably less credible than the maid's version, something no defense attorney would want to do.
Dershowitz also correctly points out that the D.A. does not want a settlement in this case, the D.A. wants a conviction. So, any moves toward a civil suit, which would help to damage the prosecution's case, would meet with resistance from the D.A. who might then contend this was "obstruction of justice", which would be a serious crime for the attorneys involved. Getting around this issue is not all that easy, and Dershowitz clearly acknowledges that. He said:
Quote:The problem is the high-wire dance is going to be very hard to orchestrate here. Because nobody can say: “I will give you a million dollars, $2 million, $3 million, and you have to not testify.” That’s obstruction of justice, that’s a crime.
Consider, again, what Dershowitz is saying. He's really saying, if he were the defense, he wouldn't want to take this case to trial--he'd make a deal, if he could. That's consistent with his previously stated view that things look very bad for DSK in terms of a possible conviction.
Quote:What do you think about the Strauss-Kahn case so far?
This case is going to be resolved outside the courtroom.
There are three distinctive parties in this case, all of whom have different interests. There is the prosecution, Cy Vance; he wants to go to trial and he wants to get a conviction. Clearly the defendant wants to avoid trial and wants to see if he can work out a deal that’s acceptable to him. And my sense is that the victim would like a big payday. Why does she want to make a deal now? Why not wait until the conviction, and then sue? [Because] the defendant doesn’t have much money. All the money is his wife’s money. And if you win a suit—let’s assume she wins a $10 million judgment against him. She’s not going to collect it. He’ll go bankrupt. Whereas if she settles the case, the wife pays up...
The problem is the high-wire dance is going to be very hard to orchestrate here. Because nobody can say: “I will give you a million dollars, $2 million, $3 million, and you have to not testify.” That’s obstruction of justice, that’s a crime. So the request essentially has to come from the victim....
[The defense lawyer]... needs somebody who will understand that he can’t ask for something that he wants. And what he wants is for this witness to go away.
What would you suggest if you were on the defense team?
Make a deal. Other than that, they have to come up with a consistent defense.
I think their big mistake is they first suggested that maybe he had an alibi [but] the timeline didn’t work. Then he said it was consensual. So they have to come up with a consistent, coherent defense theory that explains to the jury why this woman would have consented to having a sexual encounter with a much older man. And if he makes the consent defense, he almost certainly will have to testify. And if he testifies, he can then be asked about his prior encounters.
Say he gets convicted. What’s he looking at in terms of time?
A couple years in a very un-nice place.
He’d have been much better off doing this in the District of Columbia.
http://www.newsweek.com/2011/06/12/alan-dershowitz-why-dsk-will-settle.html
So, while you and Dershowitz might both think this case might end in a settlement, your reasons for saying that seem to be quite dissimilar. He thinks DSK has gotten himself into a great deal of legal trouble, but, armed with his wife's money, he may be able to buy his way out of the possibility he'll be cooling his heels in a prison cell for the next several years.