The Future President, Donald Trump

I see your point.. his pride goes first, or, if that isn't your point exactly, it's mine.

Yeah, I agree about the pride. I feel a little more comfortable calling it vanity though, because really - what;s this goomer got to be proud of?

Yeah. I was thinking of calling it walking talking pride in vain, a new song.. I don't want to foist it on country western, though.

Here's another, related, prediction - If Trump does hang around through the GOP convention, he will NEVER agree to debate Hillary. NO way. There isn't any hard requirement that candidates debate, and although he seems pretty damn stupid to me, I don't think he's stupid enough to stand on a stage and try to trade verbal punches with Hillary for 2-3 hours.

You have a point. After Hillary took Trump down the other week on foreign policy, the GOP has to be worried about debates. The thing is, Trump is already behind, and usually the best chance the candidate who is behind has is debates.

It seems only fair. After all, everyone in the world including senior figures of his own party are telling him the same thing.

Several days ago, even Josh Marshall was ruminating about the possibility of Trump bailing. In one sense, whether Josh does it or we do it, it could be considered just idle speculation of something that will soon reveal itself. But in another sense, it has real value because it allows us to voice presumptions and predictions which act as a check on our grasp of the dynamics involved here. If our predictions end up being way off, then we'd better rethink our conceptions.

The closer we get to the convention and election, the more inexorably Trump is roped in to his present (apparent) trajectory. So if he's going to bail, the sooner the better for him and his reputation/brand - and his ego. If he manages his way through to the election, then he faces what looks like a very probable and historic level massacre delivered by an old lady (or maybe two old ladies) to him and the GOP. That cannot seem like a positive outcome to him.

The smart people I attend to pretty much concur that the GOP will not likely stage a convention coup because of the internecine battles that will certainly erupt with all the electoral consequences that will follow (for some unknown duration). On the other hand, if Trump continues to collapse in polling (because of his brain/mouth) the estimations of relative damage might change and some new candidate replacement look a better bet.

Or, if they can encourage Trump (in the Mafia sense of that term) to bail, then that would cast a more agreeable light on a replacement. This may be what we're seeing now in the broad (if apparently incoherent and cowardly) GOP condemnation of Trump. "It's not a coup, he did this himself" would be the line. And if that replacement was an acceptable figure to some significant portion of the base, that may well be seen as the way out.

With all that in mind, consider Paul Ryan's present behavior.

He's principled, you see. And selfless. And above all, loyal to the party. Meanwhile, offending no one (or at least as few as possible).

Then consider that Ryan's first gig out of graduation was working for the predecessor to the Koch brother's Freedom Works. Would their huge operation get behind this guy? In an instant. Is such a contingency already set to go? I have no doubt at all.

I would think that the democrats should make it commonly known that Ryan is connected to the Koch brothers. It might wake up some republicans to speak up, and diminish his standing in the party.

No "wake up" available here for this present GOP, CI. They now need what the Koch's have set up, particularly down ticket. Cross them, you're primaried out or you get nadda in the way of financial/organizational help.

And little gain in Dems describing the relationship, historical or ideological, between Ryan and the Koch/Bircher crowd because too few citizens understand any or much of this.

I'm fearful that Trump's ego won't allow him to exit, he probably has "Hail to the Chief" as his ringtone.

Anyone who has to plaster his name on buildings suffers from insecurity.

I'm fearful that he will find a way to exit.

But if we're approximately correct in presuming the man's motives, then the issue will be where he might suffer the greater ego-damage. If he continues and is crushed, that seems to me about as bad as it might get for him.

Further, I doubt that he has any real attachment to the GOP. This is all about him. All about his "stature". All about his dominance. So if he hurts the party, I doubt he cares at all (aside, perhaps, from damage to business operations up the road).

So my guess is that if he sees a very bad outcome with a continued run including the election, then he would initiate some loud and boastful PR event where he'd leave the process because it is "rigged" and "injust" and "stupid" and beset by plotting elites and that it is all, finally, quite beneath him. He's completely dishonest, has no respect for even those who support him (they are marks) and is adept at bullying his way through most anything. He would, in his portrayal, come out the winner. That end will not be available in the election.

What I'm unsure of whether he is cognitively/emotionally resilient enough to honestly appraise his electoral chances. I suspect he is, but maybe not.

I don't know, if he loses he will claim he was robbed. There will be calls for recounts, his idiot supporters will clamor for whatever the hell solution they want. So he can still muck thinks up very well and then try to emerge as a kingmaker. He was trying to insert himself as a knowledgable source of brilliance, his dithering sentence unstructure allows everyone to think he agrees with them. He uses word and phrases such as "you were not very nice to me", "they should be ashamed of themselves and I'll tell you why" then he doesn't tell you why because he is attacking something else. Ridiculous labels like "crooked" "Pocahontas" "goofy Elizabeth" tells me things about him he hopes no one will notice. The man has no marbles to lose. Has anybody noticed his hair lately? OK, it's a hair abortion, but in months past that rug was coifed and hairsprayed into compliance against all of nature. Lately, it seems to be somewhat Q-tippy and more like a fuzzy halo framing his bloated, puffy face. The side structures that support the top of his hair creation are looking a little stringy, like he slept in it and forgot to wrap it in tissue (lady's old hair trick to keep your up do intact). I like to think I've discovered a new intelligence tool, and I shall call it Follical Intell or FOLINT.

Old but noteworthy.
The Donald is falling apart: http://www.politicususa.com/2015/07/01/donald-trump-freefall-macys-dumps-trump-merchandise.html

One complexity that comes to mind as I think about this more. There is presently an effort by Cruz people to remove Trump at the convention. I really don't know what the chances of such a thing might be. But it points to something else - Ted Cruz's ambition.

I think there's only two individuals who ran for the nomination who might be deemed sociopaths, Trump and Cruz. Cruz is just a lot slicker and smarter (thus arguably more dangerous to everybody).

If Trump does bail and if Ryan, so painfully reluctant, steps up as replacement, what might Cruz do? In a sense, we're back to a nomination contest. How the hell does that play out? I really don't know.

That would only be a viable PR stance if the election was close. And I doubt very much that it will be. But Trump may not agree with me as to outcome.

For sure, if he loses in a close finish, everything you predict will come into play.

Damn, I forgot about Cruz. That's a nightmare I will try to think about tomorrow. I'm down about a quart of 'milk of human kindness' and expressing anything about the reptilian Texas snake might make my eyeballs explode. I think I'll sign off for awhile and sit in the corner mumbling holy shitballs, holy shitballs, holy shitballs until my husband throws some ice water on me.

I'm surprised to hear he won't join you in mumblings "holy spitballs" many times.

Oh crap, you're right, he's the liberal in the family. Damn, what to do, what to do.

We'd be very wise to not forget about him. My nightmare is a Cruz/Liz Cheney duo in four years.