Local update on what a SK thinktank says:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/11/116_77172.html
(This is not the ultra-conservative paper. It's a moderate/liberal one.)
'NK likely to continue attacks on South Korea'
By Lee Tae-hoon
Pyongyang carefully prepared last week’s artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island to achieve a strategic goal and it will likely continue military operations against South Korea, a parliamentary think tank reported Monday.
The National Assembly Research Service (NARS) analyzed that North Korea bombarded the island to build up momentum for its ongoing father-to-son succession, add pressure to Seoul and Washington to resume the six-party talks and secure a permanent security guarantee from the United States.
The most important of the three is the North’s push to create an environment that ensures a smooth and fast transition of power from Kim Jong-il to his youngest son Jong-un, NARS said.
“The recent attack on Yeonpyeong Island appears to be aimed at strengthening unity among North Korean citizens by heightening inter-Korean tension, which would in turn help build an ideal environment for Kim Jong-un to take over the regime,” the think tank added.
It argued that the North’s attack was designed to solidify Jong-un’s position as a military leader and inspire loyalty by portraying him as a general who has successfully spearheaded a military operation.
In late September, Jong-un, who is believed to be only 27 years old, was named vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party and was elevated to the rank of four-star general.
NARS said it believes the North’s deadly attack, which took the lives of two South Korean civilians and two marines, is also closely related to the reclusive regime’s desire to make Washington and Seoul return to the stalled six-way talks.
The six-party talks have been stalled since April 2009 after the North walked away from the negotiating table in protest against international condemnation of its test-firing of a rocket.
NARS argued that the North took extreme measures as it was desperate to draw the attention of Washington and Seoul, which have reacted indifferently to a series of friendly gestures, such as the proposal for family reunions and request for humanitarian aid, since September.
Early this month, Pyongyang revealed to Stanford University professor Siegfried Hecker a covert uranium enrichment plant equipped with more than 1,000 centrifuges, but Washington played down the facility, saying, “It was nothing new.”
“Along with the revelation of a uranium-enrichment facility, the provocation can be viewed as a strategic move to bring the United States to the negotiation table by heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” it said.
NARS also pointed out that the North’s provocation was intended to add pressure on the South and U.S. to replace the Korean armistice with a peace treaty. Korea is still technically at war as the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce.
It noted that Seoul and Washington paid little interest in the North’s willingness to dismantle its nuclear facilities, which it expressed in a U.S.-North Korean joint communique issued in October 2000 and in talks with Charles Jack Prichard, a former U.S. top negotiation with Pyongyang, in November 2009.
It said the repeated provocations by the North in the West Sea can be viewed as a strategic move to overthrow the existing truce agreement by turning it into a disputed area and an attempt to make the U.S. sign a permanent security guarantee in return for stopping the attacks.
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