Predict the NFL Super Bowl Champ. Win Big, Big Prizes*!

@spendius,

spendius wrote:

Quote:
Spendius, I disagree about eliminating the coin toss and sudden death overtime. Football is made up of an offense and DEFENSE (and special teams, and fans, etc.). If the Viking defense had done it's job and not allowed two third down conversions then we wouldn't be having this conversation.

The coin toss is a large advantage in a first to score situation.

During the regular NFL season there was an overtime game. On the A2K NFL Pick-um thread I talked about the stats I found re who wins, typically. I can't find that post so I researched it again. I may have found some different data so the results may be different this time.
A lot of the hits I got only covered one season. I did find a couple that covered an unspecified number of years.
Highlights:
> Fewer than half of the teams that win the coin toss win the game on the 1st possession. On another site I saw that being listed as 40%. In recent years (2007 & 2008) the % is rising.
> 60% of the teams that win the coin toss end up winning the game - but not neccessarily on their 1st possession.
> In overtime, the initial kickoff is from the defensive team's 30 yard line vs the 40 yard line used in regulation. The idea is to force the receiving team to return the kick - for better or for worse - rather than get a touchback and start from the 20.
> Many games (some of the "stats" I read were dreadful, using words like many or significant rather than percents. Dudes, stats need to be quantified to have any merit) end in a field goal regardless of which possession the winning team is on. Teams tend to get conservative when they get within the range of a reliable kicker.

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

86% of statistics are made up.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

Thanks for your research Johnny.

I'm thinking of todays NFL teams in big games. I only remember seeing two ties during my Pick-Um championship bid and in both cases the toss winner won the game and fairly quickly. I think. In both cases I had picked them and so was watching with interest.

Do you think the betting would swing to the toss loser? I'll bet the toss winner at evens until my losses prove me wrong. In NFL games. And especially in high score ties where the defenses have proved porous. The period of time between the end of the game and the toss up for OT is plenty long enough here to get a bet on if you have a web account with a bookie.

0 Replies

The Saints' wobbly win sent 6 more players to the bench. Miz Cowdoc, Sozobe, George, OccumBill , Fbaezer and Clubber had the Vikings in the Super Bowl.
16 of us are still alive in the quest for the Super Bowl championship game.
Picking the Saints are (5): Wandeljw (final score: 37-30), Seed (31-28), Alex (35-13), JPB (24-14) and Tarstepan (35-31).
Choosing the Colts are (11): Cyclo (37-34), McGentrix (38-35), Maporsche (41-37), LiontamerX (38-28), EhBeth (24-17), Spendius (34-17), Region (35-27), Jespah (24-17), Edgar (45-38), Gargamel (24-17) and Johnboy (31-27).

In the game-within-a-game points thing, the Cowdocometer has Seed and JPB at 19 points with both having the Saints. Cyclo and Maporsce have 18 and have the Colts.
I never said how the tiebreaker method would work. I reckon we will use the same method as in the Big game here.

2 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

The Saints' wobbly win sent 6 more players to the bench. Miz Cowdoc, Sozobe, George, OccumBill , Fbaezer and Clubber had the Vikings in the Super Bowl.
16 of us are still alive in the quest for the Super Bowl championship game.
Picking the Saints are (5): Wandeljw (final score: 37-30), Seed (31-28), Alex (35-13), JPB (24-14) and Tarstepan (35-31).
Choosing the Colts are (11): Cyclo (37-34), McGentrix (38-35), Maporsche (41-37), LiontamerX (38-28), EhBeth (24-17), Spendius (34-17), Region (35-27), Jespah (24-17), Edgar (45-38), Gargamel (24-17) and Johnboy (31-27).

In the game-within-a-game points thing, the Cowdocometer has Seed and JPB at 19 points with both having the Saints. Cyclo and Maporsce have 18 and have the Colts.
I never said how the tiebreaker method would work. I reckon we will use the same method as in the Big game here.

Can you please detail the tiebreaker method - exactly? It is directly relevant to my pick of the overall margin of victory I predict in the final game.

As you can see, Maporsche and I have practically the exact same pick, re: final score; without more information on the process I can't make a decision which will lead to my victory.

Cycloptichorn

2 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

Why is it of importance Cyclo. Why would a socialist seek to have a victory over his fellow man. I thought it was us die-hard conservatives who gloated over such barbaric activities.

1 Reply

@spendius,

spendius wrote:

Why is it of importance Cyclo. Why would a socialist seek to have a victory over his fellow man. I thought it was us die-hard conservatives who gloated over such barbaric activities.

Spendi, why do you persist with this bullshit? Please, this is a thread for fun and relaxation. I will not respond to goads from you and I gather that others here would likely appreciate it if you would desist as well.

Let us limit our discussion to the sport of football.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

You were,nt talking about football. You were talking about you winning a prediction game.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

What were the tiebreakers, rjb?

0 Replies

@Seed,

Seed wrote:

86% of statistics are made up.

My sources say that 79.55% of statistics are made up.

0 Replies

Cyclops, you can win (provided the Colts win). You didn't even pick the first 4 games.

It won't hurt my feelings.

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

I posted the tiebreaker rules somewhere on this thread, Cyclo. I will search for that in due course.
Suffice it to say in the meantime that it is too late for any player to make a change in the final score pick at this point.
A I recall, the 1st tiebreaker is the player closest to the winning team's score followed by the player closest to the losing team's score. After that is the player closest to the total points scored.
By my calculation, if the Colts win and I have good memory re the rules, you will win if Indy scores 39 or fewer points and Maporsche takes it if Indy scores 40 or more.

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

Thanks, George. You used that bracket thing before. It might be less confusing for some folks than the way I did it.
But I do need you prediction of the final score.
Re the tiebreaker:
Step 1 is the player closest to the winning team's score in the Super Bowl.
Step 2 is the player closest to the losing team's score.
Step 3 is the player closest to the total number of points score.

Is this the entire list? I'll keep looking...

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

from the assignment board

realjohnboy wrote:

GAME #1 Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

GAME #2 Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

GAME #3 Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

GAME #4 NY Jets @ San Diego Chargers

~~~~~

GAME #5 Winner of GAME #1 vs Winner of GAME #3

GAME #6 Winner of GAME #2 vs Winner of GAME #4

~~~~

GAME #7 Winner of GAME #5 vs Winner of GAME #6.

Please also predict the final score in the Super Bowl Game (#7).

0 Replies

@spendius,

spendius wrote:

So you don't need to pull the goalie. You just say no hands at all during OT.

Yes, that is what I meant.

Have you ever watched professional indoor soccer? I used to be a regular season ticket holder when the MISL was in it's heyday (mid-80's). Pulling the regular goalie and going to the "6th attacker" in the final minutes when down a goal was always a very exciting thing.

0 Replies

@JPB,

That's it, Jaye! Thanks.
Cyclo (37-34) & Maporsche (41-37) have Indy. Correcting what I wrote earlier:
38 or fewer by the Colts gives it to Cyclo. 40 or more: Maporsche. Exactly 39 sends it to the 2nd tiebreaker. 35 or less: Cyclo. 36 or more: Maporsche.
Seed (31-28) and JPB (24-17) have New Orleans. 27 or fewer by the Saints works well for Seed while 28 or more would make JPB happy.

1 Reply

@CowDoc,

I think these are the folks still in the running for the main game.

CowDoc wrote:

for the final picks.......

JPB 1 1 1 0 2 2 0 2 5 5 Saints 19
Seed 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 5 5 Saints 19
Cyclops 2 2 2 2 5 5 Colts 18
Maporsche 0 1 1 0 2 2 2 0 5 5 Colts 18
Tsarstepan 0 0 1 0 2 2 2 0 5 5 Saints 17
Spendius 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 5 5 Colts 16
Liontamerx 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 5 5 Colts 15
Edgar 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 5 Colts 14
Wandeljw 2 2 0 0 5 5 Saints 14
Jespah 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 5 Colts 11
McGentrix 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 5 Colts 11
Region 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 5 Colts 11
Gargamel 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 X 5 Colts 10
Johnboy 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 5 Colts 10
Alex 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 5 X Saints 9
Ehbeth 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 X 5 Colts 7

0 Replies

@realjohnboy,

realjohnboy wrote:

That's it, Jaye! Thanks.
Seed (31-28) and JPB (24-17) have New Orleans. 27 or fewer by the Saints works well for Seed while 28 or more would make JPB happy.

I think you've got the names and the happiness reversed, rjb.

1 Reply

@JPB,

JPB wrote:

New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys
NY Jets

Saints
Indianapolis

Saints 24-14

My score was 24-14.

0 Replies

@maporsche,

maporsche wrote:

Cyclops, you can win (provided the Colts win). You didn't even pick the first 4 games.

It won't hurt my feelings.

Thank you sir, but RJB has satisfied me that the system exists very well as set up and I am confident that it will be pretty close for us either way. The Saints are going to push the Colts to score more than their norm in this game and I think it will be pretty exciting to watch.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

Predict the NFL Super Bowl Champ. Win Big, Big Prizes*!

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know