Oh, No! Election Day is Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010...

Thanks for the note about Washington. The last Rasmussen poll was dated May 5th and had Murray (D) leading Rossi (R) 48% to 46%. At the time Rossi, a two time candidate for Governor, was saying he was not interested in running.
Is he now formally in the race?

Yes.....Presumably he was not that interested but the GOP talked him into it. Murray is very get-able with the right candidate.

Rossi (R) announced Wednesday that he is indeed running. He did so via a video and has pretty much laid low today while he assembles a campaign staff of seasoned professionals. Smart move. Unlike Rand Paul who immediately stuck both feet in his mouth.
He did say something about immigration, but as the son of Italian immigrants it was pretty low key.
Clint Didier is the Teaparty movement's guy. WA should be interesting to watch.
Please keep us apprised from there on the ground. Thanks.

KENTUCKY SENATE (6/1):
The latest Rasmussen poll of likely voters shows Rand Paul (R) leading Jack Conway (D) 49% to 41% with 4% saying they are unsure and 6% preferring someone else.
Paul, a doctor and son of Ron Paul (R-TX), had a 25% lead after he won the Repub primary in mid-May. He squandered that with some eyebrow raising comments made in interviews after the primary.
Paul is viewed favorably by 57% of those surveyed vs 38% who think of him unfavorably.
Conway, the state Attorney General, is regarded favorably by 47% vs 43% unfavorably.
Those are very high unfavorables for each candidate.
Paul received a strong endorsement from the so called Tea Party voters. 31% of voters in KY consider themselves to be supporters of that movement. That is twice the national average.
McCain carried KY 58% to 41%. Obama's approval rating is now -26 in KY vs -7 nationally.
I am now following Real Clear Politics (RCP). They list the most recent available polls. They show:
Rasmussen (6/1) - Paul (49%) Conway (41%)
SurveyUSA (5/25-5/27) - Paul (51%) Conway (45%)
R2000Daily Kos (5/24-5/26) - Paul (44%) Conway (41%)
RCP Average - Paul (48%) Conway (42.3%)

R2000 is a polling outfit that readily acknowledges that it has a Dem bias. Rasmussen, as has been noted here and elsewhere on A2K, is accused of having a Repub bias.
The margin of error is around 4.5% in each of the polls with a 95% confidence level.

ALASKA SENATE:
There are no polls on this race. Alaska is safely a Republican state.
The incumbent is Lisa Murkowski (R). She was appointed by her father, the then Governor Frank Murkowski, to fill the vacant seat. Sarah Palin was reportedly under consideration for that position.
Palin went on in 2006 to defeat the incumbent governor in a Repub primary and was elected in the general election.
Today, Palin endorsed Joe Miller in his challenge to Lisa Murkowski's bid for renomination in the Repub's August 10th primary for the Senate seat. Palin called Miller the "Commonsense Constitutional Conservative."
Some pundits are looking to this as a test of Palin's relevance.
I don't think I would put that much spin on it.

NV-SEN

General Election

Harry Reid (D) 43 (41)
Sharon Angle (R) 37 (44)
Scott Ashjian (TP) 2 (5)

Harry Reid (D) 42 (41)
Sue Lowden (R) 38 (45)
Scott Ashjian (TP) 2 (4)

Harry Reid (D) 43 (41)
Danny Tarkanian (R) 39 (43)
Scott Ashjian (TP) 2 (6)

Favorable/Unfavorable

Reid (D) 40/52 (37/53)
Angle (R) 38/41 (41/29)
Lowden (R) 39/40 (42/34)
Tarkanian (R) 40/38 (44/33)

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/6/2/NV/541

Cycloptichorn

CONNECTICUT SENATE (6/3):
This is a blue (Dem) state and Richard Blumenthal, the long time and well known Attorney General, appeared to be a shoo-in to take over the seat of the retiring Christopher Dodd. Then, around mid May, the NY Times ran a story in which it appeared that he had embellished his military record. He explicitly said or implicitly implied he was a Vietnam veteran. His poll numbers plummeted. narrowing to as few 3 points against the most likely Republican opponent, Linda McMahon.
By today, he has totally recovered from that. He was helped in part by the crowing from the McMahon people that they had fed the story to the Times.

Richard Blumenthal (D): 56%
Linda McMahon (R) - former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment: 33%

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55%
Peter Schiff (R) - investment banker: 32%

A 3rd Repub, former 3 -term Congressman Rob Simmons, dropped out despite getting 46% of the vote in an unofficial Repub convention vote. Schiff can force an August 10th primary only if he can collect a whole bunch of signatures on petitions between now and next Tuesday.

We can, I think, put this back in the safe Dem column.

This was a great example of the Rasmussen Bullshit "meme creator" poll. When nobody else bit on it, they quickly re-polled using different assumptions and got a result that matched everyone else. Ras pulled the same crap on a few races within the last month.

Cycloptichorn

I should have said that his poll numbers plummeted according to Rasmussen. I think, though, that it is clear to the several folks here that I have been using Rasmussen.
Here is what I have found on Real Clear Politics re recent polls on CT. The 1st number is Blumenthal while the 2nd is McMahon.
Rasmussen (4/7): 55% - 35%
Rasmussen (5/4): 52% - 39%
Rasmussen (5/18): 48% - 45%
Quinnipiac (5/25): 56% - 31% *
DailyKos (5/26): 52% - 33%
Rasmussen (6/1): 56% - 33%

* The Quinnipiac poll was of registered voters vs likely voters in the other polls.

Are you aware of any polls, other than Rasmussen's, that were taken a day or two after the Times story?

Not in that time frame, no - but the swings in the Ras poll are gigantic, far too big to be caused by a story which suddenly swings the other direction. It isn't credible.

Cycloptichorn

I would say just that one poll. I suspect that the story got a lot more press time in the East than it did in the West. From newspapers to television in the big markets around CT right before the 5/18 poll. That is my guess, anyway. But you could certainly be right.

MISSOURI SENATE (6/2):
This race, to succeed the retiring Kit Bond (R), is going back and forth. I would call it as a tossup but leaning slightly towards a hold for the Repubs.
Secretary of State Robin Carnahan had a lead of 1 or 2% towards the end of 2009 but then Roy Blunt (R), a member of Congress, pulled out to a 7% or so lead. He opposed most if not all of the controversial initiatives of the Obama administration.
Now, according to Rasmussen, Blunt (R) leads Carnahan (D) 45% to 44%. Statistically insignificant. Blunt is on the House Energy and Commerce Committee and Carnahan is missing no opportunity to point out, while oil is flooding the Gulf, that Blunt has ties to the oil industry and its political contributions.
McCain carried MO 50% to 49% and 46% approve of the way Obama is running things vs 53% who disapprove.
MO has a Dem Governor, Jay Nixon. He may be able to help Carnahan. His approval rating is 61% which is up 5% from March.

Dale Peterson lost, in case you hadn't heard.

INDIANA (6/4):
This is looking to be a take away by the Republicans from the Democrats.
Evan Bayh (D), the incumbent, unexpectedly decided to not seek reelection. The new Dem candidate is Brad Ellsworth, a current member of Congress. The Repub candidate is Dan Coats, who previously served in the U.S. Senate until 1999 or so.
Rasmussen has Coats leading Ellsworth 47% to 33%. Note that there are 7% favoring someone else and 14% undecided...which is a rather large percentage of folks.
Ellsworth has been stuck in the mid-30's for months while Coats has been slipping from his peak of 54%.
Ellsworth is getting punished-as are many in Washington-by the "vote all the scoundrels out" attitude. He voted for the health care legislation, for example.
Obama won IN by a 50-49 margin over McCain, but his approval rating is now 41% vs 58% who disapprove, according to Rasmussen.
I have seen no other recent polls on Indiana.

Mason-Dixon has a new poll out of Nevada today. Looks like Sue Lowden's campaign mistakes may have cost her some support. OTOH, I'm not sure of this pollster's accuracy, so take this with a grain of salt.

Mason-Dixon is a good polling company, but that +-4 MOE means these races are dead heats.

Cycloptichorn

Thanks for ARIZONA SENATE update. The Republican primary is tomorrow, I believe. I am seeing a win for Angle, but I certainly wouldn't put money on it.

PENNSYLVANIA SENATE (6/4):
To recap recent events, the incumbent, Arlen Spector (R), realized he was destined to lose the Republican primary to the conservative former congressman Pat Toomey (R). He switched to the Dem party where he was eagerly welcomed. So much so that the White House urged Congressman Joe Sestek (D) to drop out; perhaps even offering him a job. Sestek drove on and defeated Spector in the Dem primary.
Rasmussen's take:
Pat Toomey (R): 45%
Joe Sestek (D): 38%
Other: 5%
Unsure: 12% - which I see as significant.

RealClearPolitics show no other recent polls on this race.
A bit of housekeeping. Cyclo is absolutely correct in reporting the Margin of Error in polls. Most if not all of them have a statement in fine print that says the same thing: The MOE is 4.5% at a confidence level of 95%. They all use that same measure.

I see this as being a tossup. If Sestek wins it will be a gain of sorts, replacing a Repub with a Dem. But Specter was a very moderate Repub who was clearly out of step with many in his party. A Toomey win, while being classified as a hold for the Repubs, would be a real setback for the Dems.

ARKANSAS SENATE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY:
This one comes up tomorrow. I see Blanche Lincoln, the incumbent, losing to Bill Halter, the Lt Gov. This will be seen as news because she is the incumbent who is running when many voters want to be rid of them. She also supported many of the Obama administration initiatives in a largely Repub state.
What is interesting though is that Halter is slightly to the left of Lincoln. Not a flaming liberal by AR standards. But still an odd choice in a Repub state.
He and Lincoln made it to this primary after finishing 1st and 2nd in an earlier Dem primary where none of the 4 or 5 candidates got the needed 50% to move on without this primary.
The Republican, congressman John Boozeman, will win against either Dem come November.
A take away for the Repubs.

5TH DISTRICT HOUSE SEAT - VIRGINIA:
This is the contest in the district where I live and vote. The incumbent is Tom Perriello, a one-term Dem running for reelection.
What makes it interesting is that national Repubs are investing heavily in taking this seat back. And NPR is following this one closely - starting with a long story on Perriello today.
(Disclosure: I am a Dem who voted for Perriello last time and expect to vote for him again in the Fall).
The 5th District is very long and narrow, stretching from Charlottesville (UVA type liberals) in the northern end, along the east side of the Blue Ridge Mountains (rural agricultural land) and ending at the southern end in towns like Martinsville. Towns, perhaps, based on the fabric or furniture industries for jobs. The jobs are disappearing and the towns are dying. Unemployment in that area can be 15% while in C'ville it is more like 5%.
No fewer then 7 Repubs are running in the primary tomorrow. I have no idea who will win. We don't have party registration in Virginia, so I could go vote. But I have no dog in the fight.
Perriello upset the veteran Repub Virgil Goode in 2008, largely on the basis of riding Obama's coattails. He won by a mere 700 votes. I never voted for Virgil, but he does have the most incredible accent which is unique to this region. Goode retired from politics after that defeat.
Perrillo graduated from Yale and then from Yale law. He worked for a couple of years in Sierra Leone in human rights issues. He is a devout Catholic. He makes no apologies about supporting all of the Obama administration initiatives, saying that he is ready to take any of the consequences come election time.
My thinking is that, without knowing anything about which Repub he will end up facing, he will probably lose come November.
I, and NPR, will keep you up to date on this one.

Any races in your areas worth commenting on?

Pete Domenici lost the Republican primary for governor last week. It's pretty much local interest, but I did get a nice letter thanking me for his support. Truely, I didn't know much about him, but liked his father as US Senator.