FINAL COUNTDOWN FOR USA ELECTION 2008

@nimh,

nimh wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

On the state polling level, not much changed since the conventions.

Rasmussen poll on Montana today has McCain up by 11. SUSA poll from North-Carolina today has McCain up by 20 (!). Both McCain leads are larger than any recorded in the state before.

About North Carolina, even inveterate optimist Nate Silver says that, even if this poll is a bit of an outlier, it illustrates how Obama doesnt really have a chance of winning that state anymore. (Wasnt it you who a couple of months ago predicted Obama would?)

Less impressively but still noteworthy, Rasmussen and SUSA both have new polls out showing McCain leading by 2 in Virginia - the best he's done since May. Doesnt look out of reach for Obama, but it is a change.

Many other states have hardly been polled since the conventions. The pollster.com graphs, meanwhile, are deliberately very conservative in showing sudden changes in the race, and wont show the real impact of the Republican convention for a while.

Well, I certainly don't think it was me who predicted Obama would win NC - I may have, but heck, I don't remember that, and I don't know much about NC so I couldn't tell ya. I think it's far more likely that he would win VA.

The Ras polls which have come out not only use a likely voter screen (which I never trust, as who the hell knows how they determine that?), they also only polled 500. Not exactly a trust-inspiring sample size. So I'm not too worried about that.

What I DO like, is that none of the 'safe' states for Obama has been polled as significantly changing; and the two that he needs to win, Michigan and Colorado, both have polled post-convention with Obama leads, albeit small ones.

That's all that matters, literally. If Obama can hold the safe states and win those two, McCain can have the rest. Of course, we will try everywhere, but the truth is that the election is still basically the same as it was before - MI and CO will be crucial.

It's not as if we expected the state polling to not move at all, during the period in the height of the Republican's convention bounce; for McCain to improve by a point or two is meaningless.

Cycloptichorn

Ps, I know you don't trust the 20-point NC lead, lol, so why bring it up?

1 Reply

@Foxfyre,

Another dumb one, Obama talks about arresting suspected terrorists, and says:
"We may think this is Mohammed the terrorist, it might be Mohammed the cab driver. You may think it’s Barack the bomb thrower, but it might be Barack the guy running for president"

Question, is Obama losing it? Is the campaign fatique making him a bit goofy? What would possess him to say something that weird? Fact is, he does have a friend that was a bomb thrower. Was it another freudian slip, maybe he was thinking of his friend? I feel a little bad for Obama really, but he has caused alot of this stuff with his own track record, and with what he is saying. Why would he use himself as an example? I can't visualize a normal person doing that.

1 Reply

@okie,

okie wrote:

Another dumb one, Obama talks about arresting suspected terrorists, and says:
"We may think this is Mohammed the terrorist, it might be Mohammed the cab driver. You may think it’s Barack the bomb thrower, but it might be Barack the guy running for president"

Question, is Obama losing it? Is the campaign fatique making him a bit goofy? What would possess him to say something that weird? Fact is, he does have a friend that was a bomb thrower. Was it a freudian slip, maybe he was thinking of his friend? I feel a little bad for Obama really, but he has caused alot of this stuff with his own track record, and with what he is saying. Why would he use himself as an example? I can't visualize a normal person doing that.

He's just directly addressing the bullshit you guys have been throwing his way the whole election, Okie.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

By the way, Palin and the McCain campaign got knocked around pretty much every single political talk show this evening, with specific discussion of troopergate, her lie about the bridge to nowhere, and her fear of media appearances.

I wonder how long the shine will last? My guess is a lot less then Republicans would like. It's hard to remember, but she was announced as the VP candidate less then two weeks ago!

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Ps, I know you don't trust the 20-point NC lead, lol, so why bring it up?

Because, as I already wrote in my post, "Nate Silver says that, even if this poll is a bit of an outlier, it illustrates how Obama doesnt really have a chance of winning that state anymore."

Here is what he wrote in full:

"A 20-point lead in North Carolina? Wow -- that's a big, shiny number. And it's probably an outlier to a certain extent, considering that Obama's numbers didn't appear to have suffered very much in neighboring Virginia. But even if it is a big outlier -- say Obama is really down 10 points rather than 20 -- and even if it's owing in part to the convention bounce -- say Obama rebounds to 5 points behind -- is there any way in hell that it's going to be a tipping point state? I think the answer to that is pretty obvious. The only reason for Obama to be maintaining a field operation in North Carolina is to help Kay Hagan."

1 Reply

@nimh,

Well, I wouldn't bet on it, but ya never know!

As to the other part of my post - the more important part - Obama's 'base' states seem to be doing okay, and don't seem likely to move. Of course, if McCain continues to gain, Obama will have bigger problems.

How many ways does he have to reach 269, the magic number?

1. Michigan, Colorado.

2. Michigan, Virginia.

3. Michigan, Ohio.

4. Florida.

5. Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada.

6. Ohio, Colorado.

7. Ohio, Virginia.

8. Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire.

9. Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire.

10. Virginia, Colorado, Nevada.

McCain cannot let a single one of these scenarios happen. That's a tough defense to play.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Poll Shows Large Shift to McCain Among White Women

This is a worst case scenario for Obama.

0 Replies

I think Obama blew it with his latest gaffe.
His comment about "putting lipstick on a pig" is gonna backfire on him.
Since Sarah Palin called herself a "pitbull with lipstick", his comments could be seen as sexist.

For the record, I do NOT think his comment was directed at or about Gov Palin, but I do think it was a very poor choice of words.
I have a feeling its gonna come back and bite him on the ass.

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@mysteryman,

On the contrary, I think it is such a common expression, that when the McCain camp makes a big deal out of this they will appear overly sensitive and, dare I say it, playing the sexism card, not to mention a little bit egotistical. As if everything Obama says is about her.

"You're so vain
I bet you think this song is about you"

2 Replies

@FreeDuck,

I agree that it is a common expression.
But you know as well as I do that in politics its all about perception, so I think that more people will see it as an attack on Sarah Palin, when it clearly wasnt.

I think he should have thought about that before he said it, because he has handed the RNC more ammunition to use against him.

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@mysteryman,

Maybe, but I still see the huge potential for blowback if they push this too much.

Immediately after her speech at the convention, I remember the commentators already saying that you can't use certain words (like "shrill") to describe her speech because it will be seen as sexist. Now we are supposed to stop using common expressions because she made a joke with the word "lipstick" in it. Some people might see this as being forced to be politically correct. Not to mention, Obama has been on the scene for a long time and has a reputation for being respectful and not attacking personally. For him to call her a pig would be so far out of character that it just doesn't seem plausible, even for those who don't support him.

1 Reply

@FreeDuck,

FreeDuck wrote:

On the contrary, I think it is such a common expression...

Obama should have practiced the joke and really worked on his delivery.

Maybe he should stick to jokes about PORK being "the other white meat".

0 Replies

@mysteryman,

Obama has been saying alot of dumb things. Just a sampling. 57 states or whatever the number was. 10,000 people died in Greensburg, Kansas. He mentioned his Muslim faith -- freudian slip? One wonders. Then it was the pig thing. And also this when he was talking about arresting terror suspects and how we should treat them in the courts: "We may think this is Mohammed the terrorist, it might be Mohammed the cab driver. You may think it’s Barack the bomb thrower, but it might be Barack the guy running for president"
Why would he compare himself to a bomb thrower? Is that normal?

I haven't even done a search on the web for dumb statements, I am sure there are lots more. These are just ones I remember. And these don't count the many contradictions in regard to proposed policies. For example, now he is saying he would keep the taxcuts to stimulate the economy. This seems to be a totally republican policy, and has been demonized as a worthy tool to stimulate the economy by the Democrats for as long as I can remember, including him. Very confusing man.

1 Reply

@okie,

Saying stupid things and making gaffes didn't keep Bush from getting elected, now did it? Any time you have the press corps listening and recording every word of a person over the entire course of a campaign, they are bound to get some nice sound bytes of a candidate saying stupid things. You could make a tally of all the stupid things Obama ever said and compare it to all the stupid things McCain said. But that would be a waste of time because, face it, nobody cares. We are all adult enough to perceive a person's meaning even if they don't get the words exactly right.

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@FreeDuck,

Marc Ambinder wrote:

Obama Did Not Call Sarah Palin A Pig

09 Sep 2008 07:06 pm
The first McCain truthsquadding telephone call is taking place right now, and ex-MA Gov. Jane Swift is complaining about an idiom Barack Obama used today:

Quote:
Obama poked fun of McCain and Palin's new "change" mantra.
"You can put lipstick on a pig," he said as the crowd cheered. "It's still a pig."
"You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called change. It's still gonna stink."
"We've had enough of the same old thing."

Suddenly, common analogies are sexist?

The McCain campaign has little respect for Obama, but they don't think he is stupid. And the only way one can conclude that Obama meant to refer to Gov. Sarah Palin as a pig is to have concluded that Obama is as dumb as a doornail.

Obama is fond of this particular phrase. To wit, in 2007:

Quote:
'I think that both General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker are capable people who have been given an impossible assignment,' Sen. Barack Obama said yesterday in a telephone interview. 'George Bush has given a mission to General Petraeus, and he has done his best to try to figure out how to put lipstick on a pig.

And so is John McCain. Speaking about Hillary Clinton....

Quote:
McCain criticized Democratic contenders for offering what he called costly universal health-care proposals that require too much government regulation. While he said he had not studied Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton's plan, he said it was "eerily reminiscent" of the failed plan she offered as first lady in the 1990s.

"I think they put some lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig," he said of her proposal.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/obama_did_not_call_sarah_palin.php

Links/ cites in original.

The McCain campaign is really working the refs hard. They've had some success already, why not continue? At some point it devolves into ridiculous whining, though, and I think they've gotten there.

1 Reply

@sozobe,

Actually, I don't think Obama meant to call Palin a pig. But it shows just how dense and how easy it is for him to fumble what he says. Pretty inept. He should have thought of that angle. Actually, I think there are bigger gaffes than this, example, Barack the bomb thrower, that was a dumb statement, sophomorish at best.

2 Replies

@okie,

I don't think so. I'm not eve sure what your beef is about the bomb thrower thing. It was pretty clear to me what his point was.

Given how much speaking he does every day, if all you've got is a handful of gaffes over the entire course of this campaign, I don't think you've got much. I mean, if he sang a song about bombing another country, you might have a point.

1 Reply

@okie,

Amazing how the people that promote "common sense" think that a common saying is suddenly "sophomorish."

1 Reply

@FreeDuck,

Quote:

I mean, if he sang a song about bombing another country, you might have a point.

I dont know how old you are (and it isnt relevant) but there was a song in the early 1980's that was titled "Bomb Iran".
It was done by "Vince Vance and the Valiants" and was recorded during the Iran hostage crisis.

John McCain did NOT make up the song, so I fail to understand the outrage, real or not, about him using it.

2 Replies

@parados,

parados wrote:

Amazing how the people that promote "common sense" think that a common saying is suddenly "sophomorish."

Uppity is a common word, but now that Obama is a candidate for president uppity is racist word.

Amazing.

2 Replies

FINAL COUNTDOWN FOR USA ELECTION 2008

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