0
   

The UN, US and Iraq IV

 
 
Kara
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 02:15 pm
Oops, I forgot to sign that note The Gorgeous Morsel Cool
0 Replies
 
Tartarin
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 02:22 pm
Quote:
Bush's Unreliable Intelligence

by David Corn

Sometimes the small stuff distracts from the big. At a recent press conference, George W. Bush suggested the White House had nothing to do with the "Mission Accomplished" banner that was hung on the USS Abraham Lincoln for his triumphant May 1 speech declaring major combat operations over in Iraq. Journalists quickly checked, and it turned out the White House had produced the banner. Bush-bashers decried his remark as a shameless lie that sought to shift blame to crewmembers, and White House defenders dismissed the matter as trivial. But during the same press conference, Bush tossed out other truth-challenged statements that were arguably more important than the banner business. But they have drawn little notice.

Bush claimed that he was the first president to advocate a Palestinian state. No, Bill Clinton had done so. (From a January 7, 2001 Clinton speech: "There can be no genuine resolution to the [Middle East] conflict without a sovereign, viable Palestinian state that accommodates Israel's security requirements and demographic realities.") And when a reporter asked how Bush could make up the $23 billion gap between the $33 billion pledged for Iraq reconstruction and the estimated $56 billion pricetag for rebuilding, he said "Iraqi oil revenues...coupled with private investments should make up the difference." Yet Paul Bremer, the head of the U.S. occupation authority in Iraq, has noted that in the near-term oil industry revenues will cover only the industry's costs. That is, there will be no oil revenues available to pay for reconstruction. More importantly, in response to a pointed question about the MIA WMDs--"Can you explain…whether you were surprised those weapons haven't turned up, why they haven't turned up, and whether you feel that your administration's credibility has been affected in any way by that?"--Bush countered, "We took action based upon good, solid intelligence."

Good, solid intelligence--that sounds like a subjective evaluation. But a statement of opinion can be deceptive if it is sufficiently divorced from facts. And a series of postwar findings indicate that Bush was not being truthful when he characterized the prewar intelligence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction as "good" and "solid."

Since the major combat concluded, several official and credible sources have publicly noted that the prewar intelligence on Iraq and its supposed WMDs was neither strong nor reliable.

* In interviews with reporters in July, Richard Kerr, a former CIA deputy director conducting a review of the CIA's prewar intelligence, said that intelligence had been somewhat ambiguous. He noted that US intelligence analysts had been forced to rely upon information from the early and mid 1990s and had possessed little hard evidence to evaluate after 1998 (when UN inspectors left Iraq). The material that did come in following that, he said, was mostly "circumstantial or "inferential." It was "less specific and detailed" than in previous years. Kerr maintained that the CIA analysts had attached the "appropriate caveats" to this "scattered" and less-than-definitive intelligence.

* In late September, Representative Porter Goss, the chairman of the House intelligence committee, and Jane Harman, the ranking Democrat on the panel, sent a letter to CIA chief George Tenet that criticized the prewar intelligence for relying on outdated, "circumstantial" and "fragmentary" information, noting that the intelligence contained "too many uncertainties." This conclusion was based on the committee's review of 19 volumes of classified prewar intelligence. Goss, a former CIA case officer, and Harman maintained the committee's review had found "significant deficiencies" in the intelligence community's collection of intelligence after 1998. They cited a "lack of specific intelligence" on Iraq's WMDs and the alleged tie between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda. The CIA challenged this assessment. In early November, Goss reiterated that there had been fundamental shortcomings in the prewar intelligence, but he nonetheless defended the administration prewar warnings about Iraq's WMDs. Still, he could offer but a lukewarm endorsement of the intelligence agencies, commenting that they "did the best they could with what they had."

* When David Kay, the chief WMD-hunter in Iraq, testified before Congress on October 2, he said that the intelligence community from 1991 to 2003 had a tough time gathering accurate information on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. "The result," he said, "was that our understanding of the status of Iraq's WMD program was always bounded by large uncertainties and had to be heavily caveated."

* In late October, Senator Pat Roberts, the Republican chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, said that the prewar intelligence had sometimes been "sloppy" and inconclusive. Bush, he complained, had been "ill-served by the intelligence community." His committee is continuing its review of the prewar intelligence, but Roberts has been opposing Democratic efforts to examine whether Bush mischaracterized the intelligence in his prewar statements.

So if a former deputy CIA chief, the Republican and Democratic leaders of the House intelligence committee, the chief weapons hunter (who works for the CIA and the Pentagon), and the chairman of the Senate intelligence committee each say that the prewar intelligence on Iraq was loaded with doubt, and if most of this group also maintain that it was based on uncertain information, how can Bush call this material "good, solid intelligence"? Who's not being honest? Of course, Bush has a strong motive to hype the intelligence. If Kerr, Kay, Harman and Roberts are correct, then there are three options: Bush misread the intelligence, he ignored the intelligence (in whole or in part), or the intelligence was misrepresented to him (and he has taken no steps to punish those who did so). Any of these scenarios would be painful for Bush to admit. Yet each would be a far more significant act than fudging the truth about a PR stunt.
http://www.thenation.com/capitalgames/index.mhtml?bid=3&pid=1062
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 02:28 pm
The Gorgeous Morsel wrote:
What information are you privy to, Timber, that leads you to believe that the changes that are planned will help the situation there or are you just being ungroundedly and persistently optimistic ?

E-mail correspondence with directly involved folks In-Theater, In-Country and elswhere, subscription and freely available news and intelligence sources, and gut feeling influenced thereby ... pretty much the same information and sources which led me to opine the invasion would go far less unwell than many posited at the time. I'm sticking with what's worked well for me so far.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 02:49 pm
That's all opinion, Tart. I'm amused that "The Intelligence Community" which is purported by many to have been inadequate to its task in the maater of assessing the pre-war situation is now accorded great significance by those same previously critical folks in the current matter of how large and popularly supported the insurgency of the moment is alledged by that "Intelligence Community" to be.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 02:54 pm
My thoughts too.
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 03:21 pm
The administration is trying to hard close -- they have made a poor sales presentation which is exactly why they feel they need the hard close. Dubya didn't learn with his Cee average in HBS that the hard close is passe and the real talent in selling a product, yourself or an idea is in an ethical and lucid sales presentation, not the BS they are spieling. Of course, Dubya has never claimed he has any talent.
0 Replies
 
Gelisgesti
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 03:33 pm
What's another word for 'cut and run'?


Quote:


(November 14, 2003 -- 10:34 AM EDT // link // print)
Two quotes of the day ...

If the policy is to more rapidly Iraqify the situation -- as in Vietnamization during the Vietnam War -- then that is another version of cutting and running. One way to cut and run is to simply say we're pulling out. Another is to prematurely turn over security to Iraqi forces and draw down American forces. That's a near-term prescription for disaster.
Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del)



The United States will fail in Iraq if our adversaries believe they can outlast us. If our troop deployment schedules are more important than our staying power, we embolden our enemies and make it harder for our friends to take risks on our behalf. When the United States announces a schedule for training and deploying Iraqi security officers, then announces the acceleration of that schedule, then accelerates it again, it sends a signal of desperation, not certitude. When in the course of days we increase by thousands our estimate of the numbers of Iraqis trained, it sounds like somebody is cooking the books. When we do this as our forces are coming under increasing attack, we suggest to friends and allies alike that our ultimate goal in Iraq is leaving as soon as possible - not meeting our strategic objective of building a free and democratic country in the heart of the Arab world.


Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz)



No doubt about it. We are in a really bad position. We should have given our operation a stronger and more durable international footing when we could act from a position of relative strength in the spring and early summer. We should also have created a road-map for the transition to at least nominal Iraqi sovereignty that was clear, predictable, and rapid.

But things which make sense when done with consideration and from a position of strength don't necessarily make sense when done at gunpoint. Let's not fool ourselves. The calculus at the White House is being driven by an effort to ward off a potential political transition in the United States rather than an effort to lay the groundwork for one in Iraq. This is political -- as many of the original architects of this war are now realizing and ruing.

Let's be honest: if the United States Army can't get a handle on this insurgency, how likely is it that a hastily-assembled US-built Iraqi Army will do any better? Same goes for a hastily-assembled Iraqi government put together in a climate of US withdrawal. We've boxed ourselves into a very bad range of choices. But if we're going to cut and run, let's at least be honest about what we're doing and clear-eyed about the consequences.

What we need is some clear thinking about how best to manage this situation for a good outcome for American interests.

Unfortunately what we're getting from the right, or at least some on the right, is the ridiculousness of today's editorial on the Wall Street Journal editorial page, which essentially argues that it's all the State Department's fault. Where we went wrong, they say, was in not turning the place over to Ahmed Chalabi in the first place.

This really is the ultimate articulation of the Chalabistas' trinity of accountability, responsibility and blame ...

Neocons come up with the harebrained idea. The US Army takes it on the chin. And the CIA, the State Department, the Democrats and miscellaneous foreign moderates and other deviants get saddled with the blame.

A nice division of labor, ain't it?

Everyone needs to lend a hand to figure out how to prevent a descent into catastrophe. But first there's got to be some accountability, a threshold recognition that the people who navigated us into this mess aren't the best suited to help us find our way out of it.

Telling us we didn't give them enough control over things the first time isn't a particularly convincing response.

-- Josh Marshall
0 Replies
 
Gelisgesti
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 03:47 pm
Quote:
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Korea confines troops to Iraq base

Following a terrorist suicide bombing that killed at least 16 Italian soldiers at a base in southern Iraq, South Korean troops operating near Nasiriyah were ordered yesterday to remain in their protective compound.
About 460 Korean medical troops and military engineers are stationed in the Nasiriyah area in south-central Iraq, near the Italian base that came under attack. According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul, the Korean soldiers were confined to their compound and ordered to stop all outside activity. At the time of the bombing, five South Korean soldiers were reportedly working on removing explosives from a destroyed building a kilometer (0.6 mile) from where the suicide bombers struck. No Korean troops were reported injured.
The Joint Chiefs said the Korean field hospital in Nasiriyah would continue to treat civilian patients but only inside the base. Military engineers were ordered to stop operations outside the bases, and security was intensified at the base's entrances.
The attack on the Italian forces raised new concern in Seoul over a forthcoming decision to deploy more soldiers, and possibly combat troops, in Iraq.
Roh administration officials seemed relieved they had not yet announced a decision on the size and nature of any new deployment. Nonetheless, they made clear South Korea would follow through on a government commitment to add forces in Iraq.
Reacting to the disaster suffered by the Italians, Ban Ki-moon, the Blue House foreign affairs advisor, said: "It is undeniable that the situation [in Iraq] is getting worse."
The Roh administration, however, was firm about the dispatch. "The decision is South Korea's promise to the United States and the international community," a senior official said. "The aggravated safety concerns in Iraq will not make us reverse our decision."
The Blue House spokesman Yoon Tai-young said yesterday that President Roh told ministers Tuesday that the number of troops to be sent to Iraq should not exceed 3,000. The Korean troops would focus on restoration projects and training Iraqi police and military for patrol and security missions, Mr. Roh was quoted as saying.
A senior National Security Council official said what matters at this point is any change in the U.S. policy toward Iraq. Observers speculated the United States would speed up its plan to hand over the control of the country to an interim Iraqi-led government and then withdraw American troops from the region.


by Choi Hoon, Lee Young-jong <[email protected]>
0 Replies
 
Gelisgesti
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 04:01 pm
Bush lied to get us in and he is going to freaking lie when he leaves

Are you starting to catch on?

Quote:
Steven R. Weisman and Carl Hulse/NYT Friday, November 14, 2003
Lawmakers and policy experts question quicker handover

WASHINGTON The Bush administration's decision to speed the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq and replace U.S. troops with Iraqis is bringing fresh warnings from Congress and policy experts against pulling out of Iraq too early and letting election-year considerations dictate Iraq policy.
.
Much of the anxiety about Iraq is being expressed by Republicans and Democrats in Congress, and those raising questions include both supporters and critics of the war. Even as General John Abizaid, the American military commander in the Middle East, was saying that the schedule would not "be driven by political concerns," a debate over the pace of a turnover expanded to foreign officials, military policy experts, political operatives and many others, with criticism being heard in places normally friendly to the administration.
.
"The Pentagon strategy of reducing troops doesn't make sense to me," said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, adding that the security situation demanded a continuing U.S. presence.
.
The administration is not suggesting that a speedier transfer of power to an Iraqi governing authority would mean an end to America's military presence in the country. Indeed, the reduction in troop levels envisioned by the Pentagon would still leave 105,000 American soldiers in Iraq next year, compared to the 130,000 there now. And in an interview with British journalists in Washington on Thursday, President George W. Bush said it was inconceivable that the United States would leave either Iraq or Afghanistan before it had helped establish democratic societies in those countries.
.
Still, one critic, Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, who ran for president against Bush three years ago, said that, if anything, more U.S. troops - perhaps a division - might be needed to "stay the course," as he put it. "To announce withdrawals when the number of attacks and deaths of American military are going up is not reasonable or logical," McCain said in an interview.
.
"If the American military can't do it, then certainly half-trained Iraqis cannot." In general, American lawmakers support the administration's strategy of transferring power to Iraqis more quickly.
.
Indeed, the theme of many critics of the war has been that such a transfer would stabilize Iraq and allow Americans to go home. But in recent weeks, a chorus of voices, in many cases from supporters of the war, have warned of the dangers of premature departure driven by political reasons as the campaign season heats up.
.
Administration officials deny that politics have been a factor in any decision to reduce U.S. forces and accelerate Iraqi self-government, asserting that these steps are being taken to reduce Iraqi support for the attacks on American and other occupation forces.
.
"We intend to do our best, to turn over security in a prudent manner, in a time schedule that won't be driven by political concerns, but with Iraqi capacity to be able to handle the security situation," Abizaid, commander of American forces in the Middle East, said on Thursday.
.
In brief remarks to reporters, Bush said that a rushed exit from Iraq would carry a high cost. He also called attention to a survey in Baghdad, saying it had found that "the vast majority of people understand that if America were to leave and the terrorists were to prevail in their desire to drive us out, the country would fall into chaos."
.
Nevertheless, many specialists say they are concerned that the administration is carrying out a schedule that, coincidentally or not, fits into the desire of many Republican politicians to reduce the vulnerability of American troops by cutting them back by next year.
.
"My greatest fear is that this administration, having made all the wrong choices, is going to conclude they have to bring Johnny and Jane home by the next election in order to survive," said Senator Joseph Biden Jr. of Delaware, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in an interview. Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois, said in a separate interview, "If you look at everything they're doing, it looks like they're laying the groundwork for a premature departure."
.
Martin Indyk, the White House's Middle East policy director under President Bill Clinton, said that the stepped-up U.S. attacks on rebel forces in Iraq this week were reminiscent of the naval strikes President Ronald Reagan unleashed on anti-American forces in Lebanon just before American troops were withdrawn in 1983.
.
"The problem is that, as the CIA has already concluded, the Iraqi public has already reached its conclusion that the United States is leaving," said Indyk, director of the Saban Center of Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution.
.
"Other nations in the region will be quick to reach the same conclusion." For the most part, Republicans in Congress and among administration supporters in Washington have not parted company politically with the administration on Iraq, at least publicly. But that is beginning to change.
.
"We are in trouble in Iraq and I think there is no other way to say it," said Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska. He expressed hope that L. Paul Bremer 3rd, the U.S. administrator in Iraq, who was summoned to Washington this week, had told Bush that some things would have to be done differently. Essays urging Bush to press on in Iraq, and to accelerate the transition to self-rule, are increasingly prominent in The Weekly Standard, a conservative journal with a wide readership in the administration.
.
This week, a lead editorial urged a "victory strategy" rather than an "exit strategy."
.
The New York Times

< < Back to Start of Article Lawmakers and policy experts question quicker handover

WASHINGTON The Bush administration's decision to speed the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq and replace U.S. troops with Iraqis is bringing fresh warnings from Congress and policy experts against pulling out of Iraq too early and letting election-year considerations dictate Iraq policy.
.
Much of the anxiety about Iraq is being expressed by Republicans and Democrats in Congress, and those raising questions include both supporters and critics of the war. Even as General John Abizaid, the American military commander in the Middle East, was saying that the schedule would not "be driven by political concerns," a debate over the pace of a turnover expanded to foreign officials, military policy experts, political operatives and many others, with criticism being heard in places normally friendly to the administration.
.
"The Pentagon strategy of reducing troops doesn't make sense to me," said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, adding that the security situation demanded a continuing U.S. presence.
.
The administration is not suggesting that a speedier transfer of power to an Iraqi governing authority would mean an end to America's military presence in the country. Indeed, the reduction in troop levels envisioned by the Pentagon would still leave 105,000 American soldiers in Iraq next year, compared to the 130,000 there now. And in an interview with British journalists in Washington on Thursday, President George W. Bush said it was inconceivable that the United States would leave either Iraq or Afghanistan before it had helped establish democratic societies in those countries.
.
Still, one critic, Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, who ran for president against Bush three years ago, said that, if anything, more U.S. troops - perhaps a division - might be needed to "stay the course," as he put it. "To announce withdrawals when the number of attacks and deaths of American military are going up is not reasonable or logical," McCain said in an interview.
.
"If the American military can't do it, then certainly half-trained Iraqis cannot." In general, American lawmakers support the administration's strategy of transferring power to Iraqis more quickly.
.
Indeed, the theme of many critics of the war has been that such a transfer would stabilize Iraq and allow Americans to go home. But in recent weeks, a chorus of voices, in many cases from supporters of the war, have warned of the dangers of premature departure driven by political reasons as the campaign season heats up.
.
Administration officials deny that politics have been a factor in any decision to reduce U.S. forces and accelerate Iraqi self-government, asserting that these steps are being taken to reduce Iraqi support for the attacks on American and other occupation forces.
.
"We intend to do our best, to turn over security in a prudent manner, in a time schedule that won't be driven by political concerns, but with Iraqi capacity to be able to handle the security situation," Abizaid, commander of American forces in the Middle East, said on Thursday.
.
In brief remarks to reporters, Bush said that a rushed exit from Iraq would carry a high cost. He also called attention to a survey in Baghdad, saying it had found that "the vast majority of people understand that if America were to leave and the terrorists were to prevail in their desire to drive us out, the country would fall into chaos."
.
Nevertheless, many specialists say they are concerned that the administration is carrying out a schedule that, coincidentally or not, fits into the desire of many Republican politicians to reduce the vulnerability of American troops by cutting them back by next year.
.
"My greatest fear is that this administration, having made all the wrong choices, is going to conclude they have to bring Johnny and Jane home by the next election in order to survive," said Senator Joseph Biden Jr. of Delaware, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in an interview. Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois, said in a separate interview, "If you look at everything they're doing, it looks like they're laying the groundwork for a premature departure."
.
Martin Indyk, the White House's Middle East policy director under President Bill Clinton, said that the stepped-up U.S. attacks on rebel forces in Iraq this week were reminiscent of the naval strikes President Ronald Reagan unleashed on anti-American forces in Lebanon just before American troops were withdrawn in 1983.
.
"The problem is that, as the CIA has already concluded, the Iraqi public has already reached its conclusion that the United States is leaving," said Indyk, director of the Saban Center of Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution.
.
"Other nations in the region will be quick to reach the same conclusion." For the most part, Republicans in Congress and among administration supporters in Washington have not parted company politically with the administration on Iraq, at least publicly. But that is beginning to change.
.
"We are in trouble in Iraq and I think there is no other way to say it," said Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska. He expressed hope that L. Paul Bremer 3rd, the U.S. administrator in Iraq, who was summoned to Washington this week, had told Bush that some things would have to be done differently. Essays urging Bush to press on in Iraq, and to accelerate the transition to self-rule, are increasingly prominent in The Weekly Standard, a conservative journal with a wide readership in the administration.
.
This week, a lead editorial urged a "victory strategy" rather than an "exit strategy."
.
The New York Times Lawmakers and policy experts question quicker handover

WASHINGTON The Bush administration's decision to speed the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq and replace U.S. troops with Iraqis is bringing fresh warnings from Congress and policy experts against pulling out of Iraq too early and letting election-year considerations dictate Iraq policy.
.
Much of the anxiety about Iraq is being expressed by Republicans and Democrats in Congress, and those raising questions include both supporters and critics of the war. Even as General John Abizaid, the American military commander in the Middle East, was saying that the schedule would not "be driven by political concerns," a debate over the pace of a turnover expanded to foreign officials, military policy experts, political operatives and many others, with criticism being heard in places normally friendly to the administration.
.
"The Pentagon strategy of reducing troops doesn't make sense to me," said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, adding that the security situation demanded a continuing U.S. presence.
.
The administration is not suggesting that a speedier transfer of power to an Iraqi governing authority would mean an end to America's military presence in the country. Indeed, the reduction in troop levels envisioned by the Pentagon would still leave 105,000 American soldiers in Iraq next year, compared to the 130,000 there now. And in an interview with British journalists in Washington on Thursday, President George W. Bush said it was inconceivable that the United States would leave either Iraq or Afghanistan before it had helped establish democratic societies in those countries.
.
Still, one critic, Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, who ran for president against Bush three years ago, said that, if anything, more U.S. troops - perhaps a division - might be needed to "stay the course," as he put it. "To announce withdrawals when the number of attacks and deaths of American military are going up is not reasonable or logical," McCain said in an interview.
.
"If the American military can't do it, then certainly half-trained Iraqis cannot." In general, American lawmakers support the administration's strategy of transferring power to Iraqis more quickly.
.
Indeed, the theme of many critics of the war has been that such a transfer would stabilize Iraq and allow Americans to go home. But in recent weeks, a chorus of voices, in many cases from supporters of the war, have warned of the dangers of premature departure driven by political reasons as the campaign season heats up.
.
Administration officials deny that politics have been a factor in any decision to reduce U.S. forces and accelerate Iraqi self-government, asserting that these steps are being taken to reduce Iraqi support for the attacks on American and other occupation forces.
.
"We intend to do our best, to turn over security in a prudent manner, in a time schedule that won't be driven by political concerns, but with Iraqi capacity to be able to handle the security situation," Abizaid, commander of American forces in the Middle East, said on Thursday.
.
In brief remarks to reporters, Bush said that a rushed exit from Iraq would carry a high cost. He also called attention to a survey in Baghdad, saying it had found that "the vast majority of people understand that if America were to leave and the terrorists were to prevail in their desire to drive us out, the country would fall into chaos."
.
Nevertheless, many specialists say they are concerned that the administration is carrying out a schedule that, coincidentally or not, fits into the desire of many Republican politicians to reduce the vulnerability of American troops by cutting them back by next year.
.
"My greatest fear is that this administration, having made all the wrong choices, is going to conclude they have to bring Johnny and Jane home by the next election in order to survive," said Senator Joseph Biden Jr. of Delaware, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in an interview. Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois, said in a separate interview, "If you look at everything they're doing, it looks like they're laying the groundwork for a premature departure."
.
Martin Indyk, the White House's Middle East policy director under President Bill Clinton, said that the stepped-up U.S. attacks on rebel forces in Iraq this week were reminiscent of the naval strikes President Ronald Reagan unleashed on anti-American forces in Lebanon just before American troops were withdrawn in 1983.
.
"The problem is that, as the CIA has already concluded, the Iraqi public has already reached its conclusion that the United States is leaving," said Indyk, director of the Saban Center of Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution.
.
"Other nations in the region will be quick to reach the same conclusion." For the most part, Republicans in Congress and among administration supporters in Washington have not parted company politically with the administration on Iraq, at least publicly. But that is beginning to change.
.
"We are in trouble in Iraq and I think there is no other way to say it," said Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska. He expressed hope that L. Paul Bremer 3rd, the U.S. administrator in Iraq, who was summoned to Washington this week, had told Bush that some things would have to be done differently. Essays urging Bush to press on in Iraq, and to accelerate the transition to self-rule, are increasingly prominent in The Weekly Standard, a conservative journal with a wide readership in the administration.
.
This week, a lead editorial urged a "victory strategy" rather than an "exit strategy."
.
The New York Times Lawmakers and policy experts question quicker handover

WASHINGTON The Bush administration's decision to speed the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq and replace U.S. troops with Iraqis is bringing fresh warnings from Congress and policy experts against pulling out of Iraq too early and letting election-year considerations dictate Iraq policy.
.
Much of the anxiety about Iraq is being expressed by Republicans and Democrats in Congress, and those raising questions include both supporters and critics of the war. Even as General John Abizaid, the American military commander in the Middle East, was saying that the schedule would not "be driven by political concerns," a debate over the pace of a turnover expanded to foreign officials, military policy experts, political operatives and many others, with criticism being heard in places normally friendly to the administration.
.
"The Pentagon strategy of reducing troops doesn't make sense to me," said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, adding that the security situation demanded a continuing U.S. presence.
.
The administration is not suggesting that a speedier transfer of power to an Iraqi governing authority would mean an end to America's military presence in the country. Indeed, the reduction in troop levels envisioned by the Pentagon would still leave 105,000 American soldiers in Iraq next year, compared to the 130,000 there now. And in an interview with British journalists in Washington on Thursday, President George W. Bush said it was inconceivable that the United States would leave either Iraq or Afghanistan before it had helped establish democratic societies in those countries.
.
Still, one critic, Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, who ran for president against Bush three years ago, said that, if anything, more U.S. troops - perhaps a division - might be needed to "stay the course," as he put it. "To announce withdrawals when the number of attacks and deaths of American military are going up is not reasonable or logical," McCain said in an interview.
.
"If the American military can't do it, then certainly half-trained Iraqis cannot." In general, American lawmakers support the administration's strategy of transferring power to Iraqis more quickly.
.
Indeed, the theme of many critics of the war has been that such a transfer would stabilize Iraq and allow Americans to go home. But in recent weeks, a chorus of voices, in many cases from supporters of the war, have warned of the dangers of premature departure driven by political reasons as the campaign season heats up.
.
Administration officials deny that politics have been a factor in any decision to reduce U.S. forces and accelerate Iraqi self-government, asserting that these steps are being taken to reduce Iraqi support for the attacks on American and other occupation forces.
.
"We intend to do our best, to turn over security in a prudent manner, in a time schedule that won't be driven by political concerns, but with Iraqi capacity to be able to handle the security situation," Abizaid, commander of American forces in the Middle East, said on Thursday.
.
In brief remarks to reporters, Bush said that a rushed exit from Iraq would carry a high cost. He also called attention to a survey in Baghdad, saying it had found that "the vast majority of people understand that if America were to leave and the terrorists were to prevail in their desire to drive us out, the country would fall into chaos."
.
Nevertheless, many specialists say they are concerned that the administration is carrying out a schedule that, coincidentally or not, fits into the desire of many Republican politicians to reduce the vulnerability of American troops by cutting them back by next year.
.
"My greatest fear is that this administration, having made all the wrong choices, is going to conclude they have to bring Johnny and Jane home by the next election in order to survive," said Senator Joseph Biden Jr. of Delaware, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in an interview. Representative Rahm Emanuel, Democrat of Illinois, said in a separate interview, "If you look at everything they're doing, it looks like they're laying the groundwork for a premature departure."
.
Martin Indyk, the White House's Middle East policy director under President Bill Clinton, said that the stepped-up U.S. attacks on rebel forces in Iraq this week were reminiscent of the naval strikes President Ronald Reagan unleashed on anti-American forces in Lebanon just before American troops were withdrawn in 1983.
.
"The problem is that, as the CIA has already concluded, the Iraqi public has already reached its conclusion that the United States is leaving," said Indyk, director of the Saban Center of Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution.
.
"Other nations in the region will be quick to reach the same conclusion." For the most part, Republicans in Congress and among administration supporters in Washington have not parted company politically with the administration on Iraq, at least publicly. But that is beginning to change.
.
"We are in trouble in Iraq and I think there is no other way to say it," said Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska. He expressed hope that L. Paul Bremer 3rd, the U.S. administrator in Iraq, who was summoned to Washington this week, had told Bush that some things would have to be done differently. Essays urging Bush to press on in Iraq, and to accelerate the transition to self-rule, are increasingly prominent in The Weekly Standard, a conservative journal with a wide readership in the administration.
.
This week, a lead editorial urged a "victory strategy" rather than an "exit strategy."
.
The New York Times

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0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 04:14 pm
LW, If Dubya doesn't have any talent, he sure has hoodwinked over 50 percent of Americans with their spiel. I think he's been successful to a fault, because of the lies that are being fed and believed.
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 04:14 pm
What is there to be caught, Gel, is that you are of a particular opinion, and give much credence to those who share it with you. While that does not perforce make you wrong, or invalidate your opinion or the opinions of those with whom you align, and whose opinions, conjectures and assertions you quote at length and with great frequency, neither does it validate anything other than that you are enthusiastic in your endorsement of that opinion set.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 04:30 pm
re the "intelligence community" It seems not at all clear to me if there was or was not faulty intel vs was the intel misused.
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Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 04:45 pm
That's not talent -- that's the programmed use of the Mobocracy. It's the same no matter who is voted in and it doesn't matter if it was by the slimest margin or a huge margin. We're always given two evils to try and judge which is the least of the evils. The program, incidentally, was more devised by Boss Tweed than by Thomas Jefferson.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 04:59 pm
The big controversy now is this administrations change in policy on reducing rather than increasing our military forces in Iraq. Some are saying that providing independence to Iraqis is better, while the other are saying reducing the security of Iraq will only result in a civil war between the different factions. Another idea being thrown out is that GWBush is getting ready for the 2004 elections by reducing our military in Iraq which will translate to less body bags coming home. Wondering.....
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 05:04 pm
I think there would be an Iraqi faction blood bath if we leave.
0 Replies
 
Gelisgesti
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 05:29 pm
timberlandko wrote:
What is there to be caught, Gel, is that you are of a particular opinion, and give much credence to those who share it with you. While that does not perforce make you wrong, or invalidate your opinion or the opinions of those with whom you align, and whose opinions, conjectures and assertions you quote at length and with great frequency, neither does it validate anything other than that you are enthusiastic in your endorsement of that opinion set.


Timber I only have one thing to say to you ... HUH?
0 Replies
 
Gelisgesti
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 05:39 pm
I tried to stop Bush: Italian PM
From correspondents in Brussels
November 14, 2003
ITALIAN Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said today he had tried to stop US President George W Bush from going to war against Iraq.

"I didn't support every action of the United States. I tried to persuade them not to intervene militarily," Berlusconi said.

"But when I saw there was no way (to prevent it), I stood by the United States."

Berlusconi's statement came as a surprise because he has been a staunch ally of the US administration in the conflict and he is one of the few European leaders who has contributed troops to help rebuilding Iraq.

Berlusconi did press for a UN resolution before the war but had not said publicly before that he tried to talk Bush out of the conflict. He did not elaborate.


The Italian leader was in Brussels for a conference hosted by the European Employers' Association.

Berlusconi said his support for the United States was partly motivated out of gratitude to the Americans who saved Europe from Nazism and Communism over the past century.

He called on Europe not to forget these sacrifices, saying it was necessary to show "loyalty."


SOURCE
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 06:00 pm
Wouldn't expect you to understand that, Gel, let alone accept it. An opinion is neither right nor wrong regardless by whom, by how many, nor how loquatiously that opinion may be presented. What validates an opinion is that it proves congruent with established fact as determined by objective, comprehensive assessment of multiply independently observed and recognized condition. What is established fact at present is that there is contentious debate regarding current and recent US conduct of foreign policy. What remains to be established is the efficacy or lack thereof of that policy, both in terms relative to strictly US interest and broader global concerns. All else in the matter as yet is conjecture and opinion. That's my opinion, anyway, and it applies equally to my opinion of The Iraq Matter and to your opinion of The Iraq Matter.
0 Replies
 
Gelisgesti
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 06:25 pm
timberlandko wrote:
Wouldn't expect you to understand that, Gel, let alone accept it. An opinion is neither right nor wrong regardless by whom, by how many, nor how loquatiously that opinion may be presented. What validates an opinion is that it proves congruent with established fact as determined by objective, comprehensive assessment of multiply independently observed and recognized condition. What is established fact at present is that there is contentious debate regarding current and recent US conduct of foreign policy. What remains to be established is the efficacy or lack thereof of that policy, both in terms relative to strictly US interest and broader global concerns. All else in the matter as yet is conjecture and opinion. That's my opinion, anyway, and it applies equally to my opinion of The Iraq Matter and to your opinion of The Iraq Matter.


Timber, you are still of the opinion that there are WMD's in Iraq and that we had nothing to do with Iraq gassing the kurds in the mid 80's so we live in different worlds. If it makes you feel better I still support your right to be completely wrong. R R R
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Nov, 2003 06:56 pm
Gel, again you assume much. Don't bite down too hard, that's your own tail between your teeth.
0 Replies
 
 

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