Indications are that we'll win, but there's one little thing

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All things being equal, I think it should appear to the objective observer that the Democrats will have the upper hand in the next presidential election. I mean, there has been one huge gaffe after another by this republican administration, polls show the GOP voters have little confidence in any of their candidates, the Dems have raised more money, and history is on the side of the opposing party when the sitting party has served two terms. The whole country seems primed for a change from business as usual - and business as usual has been republican tax cuts, and Bush's war.

But...

I have said it before, and I will say it again. This country IS NOT READY for a black or a woman president. It just ain't gonna happen. A little disclaimer here - I am foursquare in the corner of Obama. I support his candidacy; I will, and have been constantly talking up why I think he would be best to anyone who will listen. But I think this country will elect just any mediocre 'C' average schmoe who happens to be a rich white man before they will dare "take a chance" on a woman or a black (or a Hispanic, for that matter - but Richardson's candidacy ain't that serious).

It gives me no pleasure to say this - but I believe it to be the truth. It may happen in my lifetime, if I'm blessed with long life. But it ain't fixin' to happen anytime soon...

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I know. I haven't completely made up my mind on this one yet. The polls seem to indicate that the country IS ready for a female or black president. And the polls were accurate before the last election -- Deval Patrick et al.

I do think that there is a bit of shiny happy sure we're colorblind over-optimism, (we're not colorblind) but I'm not sure if that goes all the way to Hillary or Obama really not having a legitimate chance.

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It would rock my world if either got in (although Hillary is scary to me for other reasons). Just don't see it happenin'.

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I guess it's okay for you to say America isn't ready for a minority president because you're enlightened somehow. I'll strive to elevate myself to that lofty place so I can make the same observation and not have anyone insinuate that I'm a racist or hateful or something. :wink:

Having said that, I'm 100% behind Hillary.

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I had a discussion about this one elsewhere and that same misunderstanding came up -- that saying that America isn't ready for a (black or female) president is somehow racist or sexist. I don't really get it. It seems straightfoward to me -- are Americans, as a whole, at a place where they would be willing to actually vote a black or female candidate into office? Where's the racism (or hatred) in that question?

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Well, that was hateful.

Good morning, Bi-Polar.

No, I don't see myself as more enlightened than anyone else, and don't believe there's anything wrong with expressing the opinion that America ain't ready for a black or a woman president. If someone said something like "We ain't gonna elect no darky or beeyotch", that would be racist,yes. But I don't see that as being what I am doing.

sounds like a personal issue of yours.

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What's holding us back? A couple of years ago the neo-cons were crowing that they were going for the two-fer: running Condoleezza Rice, black and a woman, for President and she was going to win. She's no Shirley Chisholm, but hey, they thought she had more than a chance. Why was that?

Joe(I am not going to answer my own questions for now.)Nation

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Coli and Condie, bottom line, were very high profile tokens. If you bring nothing of your minority status but your skin color or gender - not the sensibilities, issues or concerns; if you are absorbed into the character of your boss so completely that your voice cannot be differentiated from an echo of his, then you canno really be considered as "representative" of anything but the cynical desire to appear to give a ****.

At one time, I thought Powell had a spine and an important voice. But he proved to be nothing more than a good soldier who follows directives, right or wrong. And condie has always been condie - and that's the kindest I can speak of her.

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Joe Nation wrote:

What's holding us back?

1. Too much Second-guessing and basing our choices on what others think about the choice rather than standing in the moment and making our own selection.

2. Being timid about failure should our choice win and not be successful. It would be too much of an opportunity for the "I told you soers" and would drastically set back progress for other candidates to follow.

Basically, the choice has to be an obvious success to be a winner or they don't get the vote. Since we don't know what an obviously successful female or African American president would be like, we've nothing but the white male to compare them with so we vote for the familiar one.

It's a lot like trying to land that first job. Employers want people with a proven successful job history but don't want to take a chance on a new person to enable them to start creating that successful job history.

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Re: Indications are that we'll win, but there's one little t

snood wrote:

But I think this country will elect just any mediocre 'C' average schmoe who happens to be a rich white man before they will dare "take a chance" on a woman or a black (or a Hispanic, for that matter - but Richardson's candidacy ain't that serious).

It gives me no pleasure to say this - but I believe it to be the truth. It may happen in my lifetime, if I'm blessed with long life. But it ain't fixin' to happen anytime soon...

If you rule out Obama, Hillary and Richardson for the reasons you give, are you predicting John Edwards will be our next president? (He's rich, he's white, and I'm assuming he's next in line - poll-wise).

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I think the Dems are overall idealistic enough that they will give Obama or Hillary the nomination. But yes, I think Edwards would have a better chance against the repub nominee, for the reasons I've mentioned.

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So we'll have a Republican president in '08?

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Butrflynet wrote:

Joe Nation wrote:
What's holding us back?

1. Too much Second-guessing and basing our choices on what others think about the choice rather than standing in the moment and making our own selection.

2. Being timid about failure should our choice win and not be successful. It would be too much of an opportunity for the "I told you soers" and would drastically set back progress for other candidates to follow.

Basically, the choice has to be an obvious success to be a winner or they don't get the vote. Since we don't know what an obviously successful female or African American president would be like, we've nothing but the white male to compare them with so we vote for the familiar one.

It's a lot like trying to land that first job. Employers want people with a proven successful job history but don't want to take a chance on a new person to enable them to start creating that successful job history.

Or, as the NYTimes points out...

None of the above.

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HokieBird wrote:

So we'll have a Republican president in '08?

If what I say ends up being true - that we aren't ready as a country for a black or woman prez, and that the Dems will still put up Hill or Barack, yes, I think so (horrible as the prospect is to me).

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snood

I think you are wrong on both counts. It's still my best guess that the next president will be a female and the next vice will be an african american.

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snood wrote:

HokieBird wrote:
So we'll have a Republican president in '08?

If what I say ends up being true - that we aren't ready as a country for a black or woman prez, and that the Dems will still put up Hill or Barack, yes, I think so (horrible as the prospect is to me).

Did you look at the New York Times graphic?

Women (-11)
Black (-4)

Is Pew way off base here?

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blatham wrote:

snood

I think you are wrong on both counts. It's still my best guess that the next president will be a female and the next vice will be an african american.

Correct.

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And this being America, everybody gets a guess!

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and I guess that no matter which party wins people will want a dj for their celebration and I'll be whoring out for the money.... Laughing

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HokieBird wrote:

Did you look at the New York Times graphic?

Women (-11)
Black (-4)

Is Pew way off base here?

Did YOU look at it, Hokie? For women, the differential between less likely to support (11%) and more likely to support (14%) was +3. For black people, there was the same differential (+3). In both cases, in sum it's an ADVANTAGE to be a woman or to be black.

That's just going by the graphic -- of course all of these generalizations tend to go out the window when it comes to a specific candidate. (Jesse Jackson and Barack Obama are both black...)

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Indications are that we'll win, but there's one little thing

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