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Hillery, Obama, Edwards and the Democrates

 
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 04:57 pm
snood wrote:
I'm sure that by now, everyone has heard what Bill said about a Hillary win in Iowa being "a miracle" in an interview with Charlie Rose.

Why do you think he said this? Since he's undoubtedly media-savvy, he will have considered the possible reactions from all quarters. Do you think he actually believes that, and is reflecting some doubt that has been created in the Hillary camp? Or is it some shifty maneuvering, seeking to gain some subtle advantage yet unseen?

(and excuse me if this has already been discussed and I missed where0


BBB brought it up here, but it wasn't discussed a whole lot. I said:

Quote:
Oh my goodness...!

(Yeah, Obama didn't do anything for people in his years as a community organizer or as a state senator...)

The loose cannon Bill is becoming more of an issue, something I've wondered about since that long NY'er article I've referred to a few times (forget the author).


(I was responding to the stuff he said about Obama, but the last part applies either way.)

I've been reading stuff about how Hillary's campaign staff and Bill have been driving each other crazy -- they don't like what he's doing/ saying, he doesn't like how they're handling things.

The comeback kid thing makes sense, but I think he may also have been trying to instill a sense of urgency among her Iowa supporters -- hey, people, this isn't a done deal, get out there and caucus!!
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 05:06 pm
Des Moines Register endorsement will be announced tonight... I'm SO curious about who that will be. I'm thinking not Hillary, but I can't get a feel for whether it'll be Edwards (who they endorsed four years ago) or Obama.

Evidently it's a pretty big deal, especially in such a close race.

Soon..!
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nimh
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 08:10 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
But the summary you provided Nimh addresses only rather trivial (but emotionally laden) issues on which all can (1) Agree without penalty; (2) enable them to promise the relief of contemporary preoccupations without (to that audience at least) having to deal with the consequences or side effects; (3) create the impression that they will deliver profound changwithout having to deal with the specifics.


Fair enough. Cant argue with that.. with any of that, pretty much.

georgeob1 wrote:
The very absence of substance in it, is what enabled them to avoid the appearance of substantial disagreement. With the possible exception of Edwards, none of them is campaigning for anything - they are instead campaigning against the current adnministration.

This seems more of a disconnect. Substance-free?

The question of universal health insurance is, according to the voters at least, one of the most important substantive issues America faces at the moment. If a universal health insurance system would be established it would be a drastic change with a profound effect on the lives of millions of people. What it reminds me of is how Social Democratic PM Drees introduced a first, modest, universal pension plan in Holland in the 50s, and earned such repute and loyalty that he became known as "Father Drees". This could be of something near to comparable with that...

It would also have a hard to underestimate impact on the prevailing discourse of what is "acceptable" or "feasible" in politics, what is "American", even. It would mark a major seachange away from the libertarian rhetorics against the government taking on any new responsibilities in social programs that has held sway since 1980.

And that's just one of the substantive issues brought up in that summary. Guantanamo and policies on torture may not have an impact on any great number of people, but the choice inherent in it is fundamental and very substantive, as on the Republican side John McCain also recognizes. It's one of those issues that brings the question to bear, in the way that McCain phrases it as well, of what it means to be American, what duties and moral obligations should be considered to be included in it.

The starkly disparate position that all Democratic candidates take on what to do with Iraq is also hardly free of substance. The current administration is demonstrably on its way to establish a long-term US presence and involvement in Iraqi power structures. No new President can "end the war" in a year, for sure - there's a fair bit of rhetoric involved in all this, of course. But the long-term choices a Democratic President would make are very substantively different from those any of the credible Republicans would make.

These are all issues very much of substance, which the Democratic candidates seem to all largely be in agreement on. Of the three issues, the differences are largest on Iraq, but even there they are nuanced.

So, let me turn this around and ask you something. What would you say are those big, substantive issues that you see the Democratic field as seriously divided on?
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 08:21 pm
snood wrote:
I'm sure that by now, everyone has heard what Bill said about a Hillary win in Iowa being "a miracle" in an interview with Charlie Rose.

Why do you think he said this? Since he's undoubtedly media-savvy, he will have considered the possible reactions from all quarters. Do you think he actually believes that, and is reflecting some doubt that has been created in the Hillary camp? Or is it some shifty maneuvering, seeking to gain some subtle advantage yet unseen?

The latter. Expectations management. It's the key game in town right now, and will be until the Iowa caucuses.

I disagree with Sozobe, if I understand her correctly at least - in this case Bill was definitely not being a loose cannon, he was right on message.

You will hear all three campaigns do a lot of messaging this month towards media punditry, especially, about how they dont expect much from Iowa, how it would be great and amazingly special if they even managed to just succeed in getting.. [fill in some number or ranking thats distinctly lower than what they're polling at the moment].

The goal: to make the score that they actually expect to get seem like some amazing outdoing of expectations.

The Des Moines Register endorsement Soz mentioned is a perfect example of this works. The quotes below from TNR's The Stump say it all. The campaigns are apparently near-hysterical about any suggestion that their candidate can be expected to gain the endorsement; after all, if they then dont get it, their guy/gal will be labelled as having been unexpectedly "repudiated" by the DMR.

Quote:
Every campaign professes doubt that they will get tomorrow's Des Moines Register endorsement--while hinting their main rival will. It's all about expectation-setting. (I'm told one Democratic campaign aide was actually dismayed over speculation that that his candidate would be the recipient.) Edwards's rivals are poised to spin a non-endorsement--given that he was the DMR's pick in 2004--as a major repudiation.


Quote:
As Mike says, no one seems to want to concede that their candidate is even in the running for the DMR endorsement. While corresponding with one campaign aide last night, I felt like I was more likely to win the endorsement than his boss. One reason, as Mike says, is expectations-setting. I got the impression another reason was that no one wanted to "jinx" something they didn't yet have in hand--or, perhaps less superstitiously, somehow antagonize the Register editorial board by seeming too presumptuous.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 08:25 pm
sozobe wrote:
Evidently it's a pretty big deal, especially in such a close race.

Yeah, their endorsement of Edwards last time round is widely credited for winning him a whole series of caucus districts in central and southern Iowa..

sozobe wrote:
Des Moines Register endorsement will be announced tonight... I'm SO curious about who that will be. I'm thinking not Hillary, but I can't get a feel for whether it'll be Edwards (who they endorsed four years ago) or Obama.

Just to play along in the game described above, I'm gonna say that I think it will not be Edwards - he's still as wonky as he was in '04, but he is no longer the pragmatic, unoffensive kind of Democrat the DMR apparently likes; way too populist a candidate to embrace without ruffling too many feathers. I think it's going to be Obama Twisted Evil

UPDATE: Oh, and the Wall Street Journal agrees..
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snood
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 08:59 pm
The Register went with Hillary.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071215/NEWS/71215018
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okie
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 09:15 pm
This begs the question, why would anyone ever vote for somebody because an editor of a newspaper recommends it? Just because they buy ink by the barrel, so what? Why not ask the neighborhood mechanic or real estate broker?
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nimh
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 09:40 pm

From the article:

    Edwards was our pick for the 2004 nomination. But this is a different race, with different candidates. We too seldom saw the �positive, optimistic� campaign we found appealing in 2004. His harsh anti-corporate rhetoric would make it difficult to work with the business community to forge change.
OK, so that was as I expected..

Hillary, though! That I didnt expect. I guess that pandering certainly helps - read this! (from the NYT, yesterday):

Quote:
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okie
 
  1  
Sat 15 Dec, 2007 09:51 pm
I wondered what the editors were offered or got, but thought better of asking, but this nimh cited article does help explain it, doesn't it.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 07:41 am
nimh wrote:
I disagree with Sozobe, if I understand her correctly at least - in this case Bill was definitely not being a loose cannon, he was right on message.


OK, I think you're right about "miracle," even though it's an abrupt shift from the inevitability thing they were previously going for. I think the Obama stuff was off-message/ loose-cannonish though, and exactly what the campaign was trying to get away from after recent misfires. Read several things to that effect, can try to find 'em back...!

Phooey about the Register. At least they haven't picked the winner recently. :-D
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blatham
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 07:42 am
sigh
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blatham
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 08:03 am
Quote:
It will be good for the country to be able to move on, sooner rather than later, from the Clintons and their brand of politics. If the Democratic primary electorate brings this about, THE WEEKLY STANDARD will be first to say something we are not accustomed to saying to the Democratic party--thank you.

--William Kristol
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/482stfoe.asp
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blatham
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 02:49 pm
Bidden was on CNN this morning. When asked about the Des Moines Register nod to Clinton, he said, "I don't begrudge their endorsement even a bit. They are the first ones to do this right. They had us in three times to carefully go over various matters. They simply found that Hillary was the most prepared to do the job of the president."

Bidden is a gracious guy but he's not facile in his grace. He didn't suggest Bill charmed them. He didn't suggest Hillary's brownshirts threatened their children.

Perhaps he just wants to be vice president. How else to account for not labelling a snake a snake?
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 03:56 pm
Bernie, Where did this distaste for the Clinton dynasty come from? I hadn't noticed this strain in your views before.

It is only rational for guys like Biden, Richardson and Dodd to manage their campaigns with at least one eye on their prospects as Vice President.

I continue to believe that Hillary is the Democrat's best bet in the election. I believe their slate will be Hillary and Richardson, though Biden might be an alternative.

Obama is undoubtedly getting a surge right now, however, i believe he would be less attractive in the final election, where the choices become final and more real, and that the realization of that prospect will become more vivid as the convention nears.
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Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 04:41 pm
Hillary is going to win the dem nomination.... or a republican president is inevitable.
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nimh
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 05:00 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Bernie, Where did this distaste for the Clinton dynasty come from? I hadn't noticed this strain in your views before.

I think he was being sarcastic...
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blatham
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 05:13 pm
nimh wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
Bernie, Where did this distaste for the Clinton dynasty come from? I hadn't noticed this strain in your views before.

I think he was being sarcastic...


He was being sarcastic.

Liberals in america have done a bangup job carrying the water for the worst elements in the conservative movement, biting into each cliched smear and focus-grouped phrase like it was a big juicy apple.
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blatham
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 05:22 pm
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
Hillary is going to win the dem nomination.... or a republican president is inevitable.


BP

I love you, my brother, but that just ain't so. All the indicators continue to move in the direction of a serious hit to republican power and ideology in the next election. And nothing is changing in their benefit. Outside of some unforseen cataclysm, a dem is the next president. Likely with greater majorities in both houses.

But then what? What's up ahead is a minefield. I'll happily take either of the top three dem candidates -each have their strengths - less so Bidden and Richardson (to my view).
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Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 05:23 pm
no kidding. The dems are writing all the republican smear ads for the general election. Idiots on one side, homicidal maniac sociopaths on the other.

We should find a harbor to dump some tea into.
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blatham
 
  1  
Sun 16 Dec, 2007 05:37 pm
from Digby (pretty good reflection of my own thoughts)
Quote:
It's Over

by digby

Now we can all relax. Chris Matthews and his panel of Katy Kay, Norah O'Donnell, Dan Rather and Andrew Sullivan just spent the first 20 minutes of his half hour week-end show dissecting how Clinton lost Iowa and New Hampshire. Matthews ended the segment comparing her to "conceited, goody two shoes" Reese Witherspoon in "Election" who nobody can stand.

Although Matthews' reflexive sexism and obsessive focus on "the bitch" works my nerves, I honestly don't care if Hillary wins or loses the nomination. I'm truly not invested in any candidate. But it does annoy me greatly when these gasbags act like voters don't matter. The polls are very close in Iowa right now. Nobody knows who is going to win. in fact, they never know who's going to win that thing.
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/
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