ican, The stated objective is to train enough Iraqis to fend and secure for themselves; not to get rid of al Qaida. Where do you get your information?
American Soldier, by General Tommy Franks, 7/1/2004
"10" Regan Books, An Imprint of HarperCollins Publishers
page 483:
"The air picture changed once more. Now the icons were streaming toward two ridges an a steep valley in far northeastern Iraq, right on the border with Iran. These were the camps of the Ansar al-Isla terrorists, where al Qaeda leader Abu Musab Zarqawi had trained disciples in the use of chemical and biological weapons. But this strike was more than just another [Tomahawk Land Attack Missile] bashing. Soon Special Forces and [Special Mission Unit] operators, leading Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, would be storming the camps, collecting evidence, taking prisoners, and killing all those who resisted."
page 519:
"[The Marines] also encountered several hundred foreign fighters from Egypt, the Sudan, Syria, and Lybia who were being trained by the regime in a camp south of Baghdad. Those foreign volunteers fought with suicidal ferocity, but they did not fight well. The Marines killed them all. "
Congressional Intelligence Report 09/08/2006
REPORT OF THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE
Conclusion 6. Postwar information indicates that the Intelligence Community accurately assessed that al-Qa'ida affiliate group Ansar al-Islam operated in Kurdish-controlled northeastern Iraq, an area that Baghdad had not controlled since 1991.
ANSAR AL-ISLAM
Ansar al-Islam (Supporters or Partisans of Islam) is a Kurdish Sunni Islamist group, promoting a radical interpretation of Islam and holy war. At the beginning of the 2003 invasion of Iraq it controlled about a dozen villages and a range of peaks in northern Iraq on the Iranian border. It has used tactics such as suicide bombers in its conflicts with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and other Kurdish groups.
Ansar al-Islam was formed in December 2001 as a merger of Jund al-Islam (Soldiers of Islam), led by Abu Abdallah al-Shafi'i, and a splinter group from the Islamic Movement in Kurdistan led by Mullah Krekar. Krekar became the leader of the merged Ansar al-Islam, which opposed an agreement made between IMK and the dominant Kurdish group in the area, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).
Ansar al-Islam fortified a number of villages along the Iranian border, with Iranian artillery support. [1]
Ansar al-Islam quickly initiated a number of attacks on the peshmerga (armed forces) of the PUK, on one occasion massacring 53 prisoners and beheading them. Several assassination attempts on leading PUK-politicians were also made with carbombs and snipers.
Ansar al-Islam comprised about 300 armed men, many of these veterans from the Afghan war, and a proportion being neither Kurd nor Arab. Ansar al-Islam is alleged to be connected to al-Qaeda, and provided an entry point for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and other Afghan veterans to enter Iraq.[/b][/color]
UN CHARTER Article 51
Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defense shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.
9/11 Commission Report
2 THE FOUNDATION OF THE NEW TERRORISM
2.1 A DECLARATION OF WAR
In February 1998, the 40-year-old Saudi exile Usama Bin Ladin and a fugitive Egyptian physician, Ayman al Zawahiri, arranged from their Afghan headquarters for an Arabic newspaper in London to publish what they termed a fatwa issued in the name of a "World Islamic Front." A fatwa is normally an interpretation of Islamic law by a respected Islamic authority, but neither Bin Ladin, Zawahiri, nor the three others who signed this statement were scholars of Islamic law. Claiming that America had declared war against God and his messenger, they called for the murder of any American, anywhere on earth, as the "individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it."1
Three months later, when interviewed in Afghanistan by ABC-TV, Bin Ladin enlarged on these themes.2 He claimed it was more important for Muslims to kill Americans than to kill other infidels. "It is far better for anyone to kill a single American soldier than to squander his efforts on other activities," he said. Asked whether he approved of terrorism and of attacks on civilians, he replied: "We believe that the worst thieves in the world today and the worst terrorists are the Americans. Nothing could stop you except perhaps retaliation in kind. We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian. As far as we are concerned, they are all targets."
...
Plans to attack the United States were developed with unwavering single-mindedness throughout the 1990s. Bin Ladin saw himself as called "to follow in the footsteps of the Messenger and to communicate his message to all nations,"5 and to serve as the rallying point and organizer of a new kind of war to destroy America and bring the world to Islam.
...
9/11 Commission Report
2.3 THE RISE OF BIN LADIN AND AL QAEDA (1988-1992)
...
Bin Ladin understood better than most of the volunteers the extent to which the continuation and eventual success of the jihad in Afghanistan depended on an increasingly complex, almost worldwide organization. This organization included a financial support network that came to be known as the "Golden Chain," put together mainly by financiers in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states. Donations flowed through charities or other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Bin Ladin and the "Afghan Arabs" drew largely on funds raised by this network, whose agents roamed world markets to buy arms and supplies for the mujahideen, or "holy warriors."21
...
Bin Ladin now had a vision of himself as head of an international jihad confederation. In Sudan, he established an "Islamic Army Shura" that was to serve as the coordinating body for the consortium of terrorist groups with which he was forging alliances. It was composed of his own al Qaeda Shura together with leaders or representatives of terrorist organizations that were still independent. In building this Islamic army, he enlisted groups from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Oman, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Somalia, and Eritrea. Al Qaeda also established cooperative but less formal relationships with other extremist groups from these same countries; from the African states of Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda; and from the Southeast Asian states of Burma, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Bin Ladin maintained connections in the Bosnian conflict as well.37 The groundwork for a true global terrorist network was being laid.
...
Bin Ladin seemed willing to include in the confederation terrorists from almost every corner of the Muslim world. His vision mirrored that of Sudan's Islamist leader, Turabi, who convened a series of meetings under the label Popular Arab and Islamic Conference around the time of Bin Ladin's arrival in that country. Delegations of violent Islamist extremists came from all the groups represented in Bin Ladin's Islamic Army Shura. Representatives also came from organizations such as the Palestine Liberation Organization, Hamas, and Hezbollah.51
...
9/11 Commission Report
2.5 AL QAEDA'S RENEWAL IN AFGHANISTAN (1996-1998)
...
The Taliban seemed to open the doors to all who wanted to come to Afghanistan to train in the camps. The alliance with the Taliban provided al Qaeda a sanctuary in which to train and indoctrinate fighters and terrorists, import weapons, forge ties with other jihad groups and leaders, and plot and staff terrorist schemes. While Bin Ladin maintained his own al Qaeda guesthouses and camps for vetting and training recruits, he also provided support to and benefited from the broad infrastructure of such facilities in Afghanistan made available to the global network of Islamist movements. U.S. intelligence estimates put the total number of fighters who underwent instruction in Bin Ladin-supported camps in Afghanistan from 1996 through 9/11 at 10,000 to 20,000.78
...
Now effectively merged with Zawahiri's Egyptian Islamic Jihad,82 al Qaeda promised to become the general headquarters for international terrorism, without the need for the Islamic Army Shura. Bin Ladin was prepared to pick up where he had left off in Sudan. He was ready to strike at "the head of the snake."
...
On February 23, 1998, Bin Ladin issued his public fatwa. The language had been in negotiation for some time, as part of the merger under way between Bin Ladin's organization and Zawahiri's Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Less than a month after the publication of the fatwa, the teams that were to carry out the embassy attacks were being pulled together in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. The timing and content of their instructions indicate that the decision to launch the attacks had been made by the time the fatwa was issued.88
...
9/11 Commission Report
The attack on the U.S. embassy in Nairobi destroyed the embassy and killed 12 Americans and 201 others, almost all Kenyans. About 5,000 people were injured. The attack on the U.S. embassy in Dar es Salaam killed 11 more people, none of them Americans. Interviewed later about the deaths of the Africans, Bin Ladin answered that "when it becomes apparent that it would be impossible to repel these Americans without assaulting them, even if this involved the killing of Muslims, this is permissible under Islam." Asked if he had indeed masterminded these bombings, Bin Ladin said that the World Islamic Front for jihad against "Jews and Crusaders" had issued a "crystal clear" fatwa. If the instigation for jihad against the Jews and the Americans to liberate the holy places "is considered a crime," he said, "let history be a witness that I am a criminal."93
...
National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States
The Commission closed on August 21, 2004. This site is archived.
www.dni.gov/release_letter_101105.html
Summary of Letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi July 9, 2005.
The war in Iraq is central to al Qa'ida's global jihad.
The war will not end with an American departure.
The strategic vision is one of inevitable conflict with a call by al-Zawahiri for political action equal to military action.
More than half the struggle is taking place "in the battlefield of the media."
Popular support must be maintained at least until jihadist rule has been established.
Shiite sacred mosque explosion in Samarra
[Search argument "Samarra Mosque explosion."]
...
In Baghdad, National Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie blamed religious zealots such as the al-Qaida terror network, telling Al-Arabiya television that the attack was an attempt "to pull Iraq toward civil war."
The country's most revered Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, sent instructions to his followers forbidding attacks on Sunni mosques, especially the major ones in Baghdad. He called for seven days of mourning, his aides said.
...
President Jalal Talabani condemned the attack and called for restraint, saying the attack was designed to sabotage talks on a government of national unity following the Dec. 15 parliamentary election.
Capture of al-Qaeda mastermind of Golden Mosque explosion
[Search argument "Al-Qaeda responsible for Samarra Mosque Explosion."]
...
Abu Qudama operated under terrorist cell leader Haitham al-Badri.
Al-Badri was "a known terrorist," a member of Ansar al-Sunna before he joined terror group al Qaeda in Iraq, al-Rubaie said.
However, Iraqi authorities "were not aware of his being the mastermind behind the golden mosque explosion" until Abu Qudama's arrest, al-Rubaie said.
"The sole reason behind his action was to drive a wedge between the Shiites and Sunnis and to ignite and trigger a sectarian war in this country," al-Rubaie said, referring to al-Badri.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-11-10-iraq_x.htm?csp=34
Al-Qaeda in Iraq taunts Bush, claims it's winning war
Updated 11/10/2006 2:33 PM
BAGHDAD (AP) -- A recording Friday attributed to the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq mocked U.S. President George W. Bush as a coward whose conduct of the war had been rejected by U.S. voters, challenging him to keep American troops in the country to face more bloodshed.
"We haven't had enough of your blood yet," terror chieftain Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, identified as the speaker on the tape, said as he claimed to have 12,000 fighters under his command who "have vowed to die for God's sake."
The Egyptian said his fighters would not rest until they blew up the White House and occupied Jerusalem.
It was impossible to verify the authenticity of the 20-minute recording, posted on a website used by Islamic militants.
Al-Muhajir, also known as Abu Ayyub al-Masri, boasted that al-Qaeda in Iraq was moving toward victory faster than expected because of Bush's mistakes.
...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/iraq_dc
Dozens of al Qaeda killed in Anbar: Iraq police By Waleed Ibrahim and Ibon Villelabeitia
Thu Mar 1, 3:17 PM ET [2007]
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi security forces killed dozens of al Qaeda militants who attacked a village in western Anbar province on Wednesday, during fierce clashes that lasted much of the day, police officials said on Thursday.
Sunni tribal leaders are involved in a growing power struggle with Sunni al Qaeda for control of Anbar, a vast desert province that is the heart of the Sunni Arab insurgency in Iraq.
In Baghdad, U.S. and Iraqi troops are engaged in a security crackdown to stop bloodshed between Shi'ites and Sunni Arabs.
U.S. and Iraqi military officials said troops would soon launch aggressive operations to seize weapons and hunt gunmen in the Shi'ite militia bastion of Sadr City, signaling resolve to press ahead with the plan even in sensitive areas.
Dozens of loud explosions that sounded like mortar bombs rocked southern Baghdad in quick succession on Thursday evening, Reuters witnesses said.
Iraqi military spokesman Brigadier Qassim Moussawi said the blasts were part of the new security offensive, Iraqiya state television reported, without giving details. A U.S. military spokeswoman said she had no information on the explosions.
Interior Ministry spokesman Abdul Karim Khalaf said foreign Arabs and Afghans were among some 80 militants killed and 50 captured in the clashes in Amiriyat al Falluja, an Anbar village where local tribes had opposed al Qaeda.
A police official in the area, Ahmed al-Falluji, put the number of militants killed at 70, with three police officers killed. There was no immediate verification of the numbers.
A U.S. military spokesman in the nearby city of Falluja, Major Jeff Pool, said U.S. forces were not involved in the battle but had received reports from Iraqi police that it lasted most of Wednesday. He could not confirm the number killed.
Another police source in Falluja put the figure at dozens.
"Because it was so many killed we can't give an exact number for the death toll," the police source told Reuters.
Witnesses said dozens of al Qaeda members attacked the village, prompting residents to flee and seek help from Iraqi security forces, who sent in police and soldiers.
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/11/10/iraq.main/
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- A purported audio recording by the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq vows to step up the group's fight against the United States, saying, "We haven't had enough of your blood yet."
The recording was posted Friday on an Islamist Web site and the speaker is identified as Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, successor to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Al-Muhajer is also known as Abu Ayyub al-Masri.
"Come down to the battlefield, you coward," the speaker says on the recording, which CNN cannot independently confirm as the voice of al-Muhajer.
Calling President Bush a "lame duck" the speaker tells Bush not to "run away as your lame defense secretary ran away," referring to Donald Rumsfeld, who resigned Wednesday.
Critics of the U.S.-led war in Iraq have placed much of the blame for its problems on Rumsfeld. The war's growing unpopularity contributed to toppling the majority Republican Party in both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's election. (Watch Rumsfeld acknowledge what's going wrong -- 2:23)
Much of the Iraqi insurgency has been blamed on al Qaeda in Iraq, whose former chief al-Zarqawi was killed in a U.S.-led airstrike in June.
The speaker on the tape vows that al Qaeda in Iraq will not stop its jihad "until we sit under the olive trees in Rumiya after we blow up the wicked house known as the White House." He says the first phase of the jihad is now over, and that the next phase -- building an Islamic nation -- has begun.
"The victory day has come faster than we expected," he says. "Here is the Islamic nation in Iraq victorious against the tyrant. The enemy is incapable of fighting on and has no choice but to run away."
The speaker claims his al Qaeda army has 12,000 soldiers -- with 10,000 more waiting in the wings to join them.
...
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/02/15/iraq/main2479937.shtml
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Feb. 15, 2007
(CBS/AP) The leader of al Qaeda in Iraq was wounded and an aide was killed Thursday in a clash with Iraqi forces north of Baghdad, the Interior Ministry spokesman said.
The clash occurred near Balad, a major U.S. base about 50 miles north of the capital, Brig. Gen Abdul-Karim Khalaf said.
Khalaf said al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Ayyub al-Masri was wounded and his aide, identified as Abu Abdullah al-Majemaai, was killed.
Khalaf declined to say how Iraqi forces knew al-Masri had been injured, and there was no report on the incident from U.S. authorities. Deputy Interior Minister Maj. Gen. Hussein Ali Kamal said he had no information about such a clash or that al-Masri had been involved.
Al-Masri took over the leadership of al Qaeda in Iraq after its charismatic leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was killed in a U.S. air strike last June in Diyala province northeast of Baghdad.
Meanwhile U.S. and Iraqi forces pushed deeper into Sunni militant strongholds in Baghdad -- where cars rigged with explosives greeted their advance -- while British-led teams in southern Iraq used shipping containers to block suspected weapon smuggling routes from Iran.
The series of car bomb blasts, which killed at least seven civilians, touched all corners of Baghdad. But they did little to disrupt a wide-ranging security sweep seeking to weaken militia groups' ability to fight U.S.-allied forces -- and each other.
The attacks, however, pointed to the critical struggle to gain the upper hand on Baghdad's streets. The Pentagon hopes its current campaign of arrests and arms seizures will convince average Iraqis that militiamen are losing ground.
It will take a lot of convincing.
Iraqis, such as Sunnis living on Haifa Street in central Baghdad, still live in mortal fear, reports CBS News chief foreign correspondent Lara Logan.
"Right now it is very difficult with the enemy that is around here in this area -- it is a real hostile area" says Lt. Juan Cantu, whose Crazyhorse Troop is guarding Haifa Street. "These people are scared just to go outside their front door"
http://terrorism.about.com/od/groupsleader1/p/AlQaedainIraq.htm
Al Qaeda in Iraq -- A profile of Sunni jihadist organization Al Qaeda in Iraq
From Amy Zalman, Ph.D.,
Name: Al Qaeda in Iraq
"Al Qaeda in Iraq is a shortening of the organization's original name Tanzim Qaidat Al Jihad fi Bilad Al Rafidin: Organization of Qaidat Al Jihad in the Land of Two Rivers. Iraq is called the land between two rivers, the Euphrates and the Tigris.
There has been considerable speculation about the name of the organization and how it was arrived at.
According to Egyptian journalist Abd Al Rahim Ali, the name "Qaida Al Jihad" is interesting because it reveals the roots of the joint organization formed in 2001 when Al Qaida head Osama bin Laden and Al Jihad of Egypt head Ayman Al Zawahiri joined forces to create "Qaida Al Jihad."
In the view of the U.S. State Department the name is "understood to mean the base of organized jihadist operations in Iraq" (The word "al qaeda" means "base"). This name was given by Jordanian born Abd al Musab Al Zarqawi, who assumed leadership in late 2004, after pledging allegiance to bin Laden.
Iraq Army captures al-Qaeda
IA Captures Al Qaeda In Iraq Cell Leader, Recovers Weapons Cache
BAGHDAD -- Soldiers of the 5th Iraqi Army Division captured a suspected Al Qaeda in
Iraq cell leader during operations Feb. 15 in Muqdadiyah. The suspect is believed
responsible for coordinating and carrying out several improvised explosive device and
rocket attacks targeting Iraqi civilians and Iraqi Security Forces in the area.
During the operation, several munitions caches were recovered by Iraqi Forces.
Munitions confiscated included 12 152mm artillery projectiles, ten 130mm artillery
projectiles, five 105mm artillery projectiles, ten 120mm mortar rounds, 15 82mm mortar
rounds, ten 60mm mortar rounds, 23 anti-tank mines, explosives and detonation cord.
The operation was planned and conducted by 5th IA Division forces. Coalition
Forces accompanied the Iraqi force in an advisory role. Operations caused minimal
damage and there were no Iraqi civilian, Iraqi forces or Coalition Forces casualties.
The operation is another example of the increasing capability of Iraqi Forces to
combat violent elements operating within Iraq and Iraqi Forces ability to provide for the
safety and security of citizens within Muqdadiyah.
attacks on al-Qaeda in Iraq
Daily Iraq Report for February 27, 2007
Less than two weeks after the official announcement of the Baghdad security plan, "reporting of sectarian murders is at the lowest level in almost a year," and "170 suspected insurgents have been arrested and 63 weapons caches of various sizes have been seized," reports Stars and Stripes. Bomb attacks have decreased by 20 percent.
Over the past 24 hours, Iraqi and Coalition forces have pressed raids against al Qaeda in Iraq targets. Yesterday, U.S. forces captured 15 al Qaeda, including an emir (equivalent to a battalion commander in the U.S. military), during raids in Baghdad, Ramadi, Mahmudiyah, and Samarra. The Iraqi Army detained 6 insurgents near Baqubah. Today, 11 al Qaeda, including an emir, were captured during raids in Baghdad, Mosul and Ramadi.
One reason for the decrease in sectarian attacks is the pressure being placed on the Mahdi Army. While Muqtada al-Sadr is hiding in Iran, Iraqi and Coalition forces continue to dismantle his Mahdi Army. U.S. and Iraqi troops conducted raids throughout Sadr City, Muqtada's stronghold in Baghdad, and 16 Mahdi fighters were detained. The rumor in Baghdad is that Sadr himself is "doing some very deadly housecleaning," as "Mahdi Army members have been disappearing or turning up dead in the Sadr City, Kadhimiya, and Baladiyat areas of the capital." But Iraqi and Coalition forces have been conducting a shadow war against Sadr since last summer, maintaining the fiction that only "rogue elements of the Mahdi Army" are being targeted.
Two major attacks have occurred in the past 24 hours. The most significant was an explosion yesterday at the Ministry of Public Works, which nearly killed Adel Abdul Mahdi, one of Iraq's two vice presidents, as well as Riad Ghraib, the minister of public works. Twelve were killed and 42 wounded after a bomb placed in the ceiling of a ministry conference room exploded. Mahdi and Ghraib were both "lightly wounded" in the explosion, and were treated for "scratches" at a U.S. military hospital. An American intelligence source informs us that al Qaeda and Sadr are the prime suspects. Today, an IED attack outside of a Ramadi mosque killed 15 civilians and wounded 9, including women and children. Al Qaeda recently targeted a mosque in Habbaniyah, and assassinated an imam that spoke out against al-Qaeda.
The evidence that Iran is supplying weapons and explosives to insurgents and militias continues to mount. Iraqi newspapers are now reporting on this development, and are blaming Iran for fueling the violence in Baghdad. A significant find linking weapons and explosives back to Iran was discovered by the U.S. Army in the violent Diyala province. The cache included Iranian made C-4 explosives and mortars. "The explosives were found alongside enough bomb-making materials to build 150 EFPs [Explosively Formed Projectiles] capable of penetrating heavily armored vehicles, according to the expert, Maj. Martin Weber." This latest find follows an MNF-Iraq briefing that provided further evidence of Iranian munitions and support being supplied to insurgents and militias, as well as evidence that Austrian Steyr HS50 sniper rifles purchased by Iran had found their way into Iraq.
ican, American born terrorists can do the same. As for your ability to get on any commercial airplane flying into the US, what did you use for ID?
Hey, ican, if you expect me to read all that, you ain't learned anything. Summarize, cause I ain't gonna read all that stuff you post.
cicerone imposter wrote:Hey, ican, if you expect me to read all that, you ain't learned anything. Summarize, cause I ain't gonna read all that stuff you post.
AHAA! That explains why you are so ignorant. I should have guessed.
ican711nm wrote:cicerone imposter wrote:Hey, ican, if you expect me to read all that, you ain't learned anything. Summarize, cause I ain't gonna read all that stuff you post.
AHAA! That explains why you are so ignorant. I should have guessed.
Skipping stuff you've written a hundred times is not ignorance.
You constantly Appeal to Authority to make your arguments, which is, yeah, weak
Cycloptichorn
Cycloptichorn wrote:ican711nm wrote:cicerone imposter wrote:Hey, ican, if you expect me to read all that, you ain't learned anything. Summarize, cause I ain't gonna read all that stuff you post.
AHAA! That explains why you are so ignorant. I should have guessed.
Skipping stuff you've written a hundred times is not ignorance.
You constantly Appeal to Authority to make your arguments, which is, yeah, weak
Cycloptichorn
Your authority to judge the authority of my sources is worse than weak. It's non-existent.
Informed Comment
Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion
Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Sunnis Threaten to Pull out of al-Maliki Government,
Demand a Unitary Iraq;
65 Killed in Civil War Violence
In an interview with Nic Robertson of CNN, Iraq's Sunni Arab vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, has laid down an ultimatum. He said that he would pull the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni fundamentalists) out of the al-Maliki "national unity" government if [Shiite] militias are not disarmed and revisions to the constitution aren't begun by May 15. He said he was ready to admit that he had "made the mistake of a lifetime" in agreeing to participate in the government if no progress were made by that date on these issues.
The Iraqi Accord Front has 44 seats in parliament, but altogether the Sunni Arabs have 58, and if all of them boycott al-Maliki, he would be in a difficult position. He has already lost the 32 Sadrist MPs, as well as the 15 of the Islamic Virtue Party. The remaining 85 MPs from the United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite fundamentalists) depend on the 58 deputies of the Kurdistan Alliance to form a majority of 143 in the 275-member parliament. A majority requires at least 138. If any further deputies were to desert him, it is hard to see how al-Maliki could win a vote of no confidence. (The Iraqi constitution allows 50 deputies to call a vote of no confidence; but the Iraqi government is so dysfunctional it is not clear anyone would bother to do so.)
Al-Hashimi is also demanding provisions guaranteeing the national unity of Iraq. That is, he is making a counter-strike against Shiite cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Last October, al-Hakim pushed through parliament procedures for setting up a Shiite super-province in the south, melding several existing provinces together. The model for this move is the way that Dohuk, Irbil and Sulaymaniya provinces were merged into the Kurdistan Regional Government. The Sunni Arabs mostly say that the KRG is water under the bridge and they can accept it, but thus far and no farther. In short, the major Sunni Arab political group willing to cooperate with the al-Maliki government and the US occupation is saying it is deeply afraid that the Biden/Gelb plan for Iraq's devolution into three ethnic super-provinces with a weak central government may actually be implemented. And it is deadset against it. (See the guest posting below). Sunni Arab Iraqis have demonstrated that when they are deadset against something, they can effectively act as spoilers.
It seems clear that the American public is unlikely to put up with things like political infighting within the Iraqi government very much longer. The sending of National Guardsmen and lots of equipment from Kansas to Iraq has gotten in the way of tornado relief work, just as it impeded relief work at New Orleans after Katrina.
Meanwhile, some 68 Iraqis were killed in political violence on Monday. 30 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad, mostly in Sunni Arab areas, and Sunni leaders voiced fears that Shiite death squads are being reactivated after having lain low during the first weeks of the new security plan (the "surge.")
Two suicide bombings at Ramadi killed 25 and wounded dozens. Some are saying this violence is part of a general struggle between the Salafi Jihadis (which the press calls "al-Qaeda") and local tribal sheikhs in al-Anbar. Despite these bombings on Monday, the internal division has made al-Anbar a more permissive environment for US troops than it was a year ago. See Marc Lynch's postings on this issue (scroll down) over the past few weeks.
The problems with taking heart from a Sunni tribal alliance against the Salafis (revivalist Sunnis) include
a) that the tribes are notoriously disorganized and
b) that they are perfectly capable of turning on one another and on other Sunni Arabs, and
c) that most Iraqis are now urban and organized by political parties, not tribes; and
d) that these same Sunni tribal leaders also say they are die-hard opposed to the al-Maliki government and that they want to kill Shiites. Nic Robertson let this bombshell drop on CNN's Sunday edition of This Week at War: "the tribal leaders I talked to who are the guys behind the support right now for defeating al Qaeda, are telling me that they still expect to fight with the Shias and they expect these tribal members to be the vanguard of that part of the force."
So even if the tribes defeat "al-Qaeda" in al-Anbar, it would just be so they could kill Shiites rather than allowing the Salafi Jihadis to do it. It wouldn't end the civil war.
MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: There is no bad news at the moment in al Anbar province. I think what is going on is that what should have been obvious a long time ago to the tribal sheiks is now apparent, which is they are better off fighting al Qaeda and getting some local ability to stabilize their home land. This is where they live. Why wouldn't they want to have some level of utilities working, of the economy working and they finally maybe begun to put their hatred of the United States and of the Shia in a little bit of perspective at least locally and at least for now. So there is no bad news in this development in the narrow sense. We just don't know how far we can project it into the future, to assume these sheiks will want to keep working with us and to what extent this can extend to Baghdad. This is the homeland of the Sunni tribes that are working with us and it's going to make their lives better. It's they would want to do this.
FOREMAN: One of the concerns Nic obviously is the Shia tribes. Some of them feel that this may not be a good thing because it just organizes the Sunnis for potential civil war in the future.
ROBERTSON: Well, what the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad and indeed what the original American vision for Iraq had been was to create a national army that was drawn from across the country that could go and fight in any part of the country that you wouldn't have an al Anbar army fighting only in al Anbar. I was in a meeting where the defense minister about a year and a half ago angrily told a gathering of al Anbar tribal sheiks, they couldn't have their own Iraqi army division, but this essentially is what is being created here, al Anbar force to fight al Anbar's interests in al Anbar and the tribal leaders I talked to who are the guys behind the support right now for defeating al Qaeda, are telling me that they still expect to fight with the Shias and they expect these tribal members to be the vanguard of that part of the force. There is another quote and we've been talking about quotes here from TE Lawrence and he says to go to war with a rebellion is messy and slow. It's like eating soup with a knife. And I think American officers have found that as they have tried to eat the soup with a knife, learn new tactics, it's taken a long time to turn the American army around. The tribal leaders I've talked to have sat and complained that they felt undermined and not understood. Now there's been a coming together and this is a positive step. But clearly, more developments to head off what might happen are really important, Tom.
ican, I know it's difficult for you to understand the "primary" goal expected from general Petraeus, but here's a clue for you.
...
ican, The only goal for Petreaeus is to show progress in slowing down or stopping the violence. It doesn't matter who perpetrates the violence. In case you still haven't learned who's part of the problem, it's Shia against Shia, Shia against Sunni, al Qaida, Shia aginst the Kurds, and the insurgency. Al Qaida is but one piece of the larger pie; nothing primary about them. You talk gibberish with very little knowledge, if any.
