9
   

THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, ELEVENTH THREAD

 
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Nov, 2007 07:04 am
Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Nov, 2007 06:40 pm
ican, You're part of the feared white men! Can't see yourself even when looking in the mirror.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Nov, 2007 08:38 pm
ican711nm wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Quote:
Or, How about concluding that the growth of al-Qaeda after our invasions has caused our post invasion problems to become more difficult?


I'm happy to conclude that, as it was the obvious and predictable - and predicted - response to our actions in the region.

Cycloptichorn


How about that! We finally agree about something!


So why were there not much more drastic, ie, realistic, predictions about the challenges we would face in the post-war period?

Did those who plan the war not predict this as well? That's scary to contemplate, as it is truly a basic reaction on the part of the population in question.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Nov, 2007 10:37 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Quote:
Or, How about concluding that the growth of al-Qaeda after our invasions has caused our post invasion problems to become more difficult?


I'm happy to conclude that, as it was the obvious and predictable - and predicted - response to our actions in the region.

Cycloptichorn


How about that! We finally agree about something!


So why were there not much more drastic, ie, realistic, predictions about the challenges we would face in the post-war period?

Did those who plan the war not predict this as well? That's scary to contemplate, as it is truly a basic reaction on the part of the population in question.

Cycloptichorn

Because we are all flawed human beings.

Uhhh ... except me! I'm scheduled to be perfect by next Tuesday... BUT ... I am way, way, ... way behind schedule ... sigh!
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Nov, 2007 06:38 am
Analysts' Warnings of Iraq Chaos Detailed

Quote:
Months before the invasion of Iraq, U.S. intelligence agencies predicted that it would be likely to spark violent sectarian divides and provide al-Qaeda with new opportunities in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a report released yesterday by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Analysts warned that war in Iraq also could provoke Iran to assert its regional influence and "probably would result in a surge of political Islam and increased funding for terrorist groups" in the Muslim world.

The intelligence assessments, made in January 2003 and widely circulated within the Bush administration before the war, said that establishing democracy in Iraq would be "a long, difficult and probably turbulent challenge." The assessments noted that Iraqi political culture was "largely bereft of the social underpinnings" to support democratic development.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Nov, 2007 11:56 am
ican711nm wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Quote:
Or, How about concluding that the growth of al-Qaeda after our invasions has caused our post invasion problems to become more difficult?


I'm happy to conclude that, as it was the obvious and predictable - and predicted - response to our actions in the region.

Cycloptichorn


How about that! We finally agree about something!


So why were there not much more drastic, ie, realistic, predictions about the challenges we would face in the post-war period?

Did those who plan the war not predict this as well? That's scary to contemplate, as it is truly a basic reaction on the part of the population in question.

Cycloptichorn

Because we are all flawed human beings.

Uhhh ... except me! I'm scheduled to be perfect by next Tuesday... BUT ... I am way, way, ... way behind schedule ... sigh!


A terrible answer on your part.

They didn't forget to pick up the dry cleaning.

They didn't tell a small lie about a dress looking good.

They didn't accidentally hurt someone's feelings.

They didn't do anything for which an acceptable excuse would be:

Quote:
Because we are all flawed human beings.


They, through their hubris and incompetence, caused death. Many deaths. Deaths due to their unwillingness to plan for the post-war period. Their inability to have modesty in their goals has directly lead to the deaths of many innocents and many US soldiers. And to very, very little gain for us as a society.

If these people were not given special immunity, they would all be in court on charges of gross mismanagement of public funds and trust. This isn't a matter of a simple mistake; it's a matter of life-changing mistakes on their part. They have threatened all Americans with a more dangerous future thanks to incompetence.

And all you can say is 'nobody's perfect?'

I don't expect perfection, I expect base competence.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Nov, 2007 10:26 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:


...

So why were there not much more drastic, ie, realistic, predictions about the challenges we would face in the post-war period?

Did those who plan the war not predict this as well? That's scary to contemplate, as it is truly a basic reaction on the part of the population in question.
...


ican711nm wrote:
Because we are all flawed human beings.
...


Cycloptichorn wrote:
A terrible answer on your part.

They didn't forget to pick up the dry cleaning.

They didn't tell a small lie about a dress looking good.

They didn't accidentally hurt someone's feelings.

They didn't do anything for which an acceptable excuse would be:

Quote:
Because we are all flawed human beings.


They, through their hubris and incompetence, caused death. Many deaths. Deaths due to their unwillingness to plan for the post-war period. Their inability to have modesty in their goals has directly lead to the deaths of many innocents and many US soldiers. And to very, very little gain for us as a society.

If these people were not given special immunity, they would all be in court on charges of gross mismanagement of public funds and trust. This isn't a matter of a simple mistake; it's a matter of life-changing mistakes on their part. They have threatened all Americans with a more dangerous future thanks to incompetence.

And all you can say is 'nobody's perfect?'

I don't expect perfection, I expect base competence.

Cycloptichorn

I was trying to be subtle! Now I will be blunt.

In my judgment, you lack the competence necessary to competently judge the competence of others, especially that of our current government.

Of course, it is possible that I lack the competence to judge your competence. But, what the hell, NO BODY IS PERFECT!

We differ only in our degrees of relative incompetence. That is, some of us are far more incompetent than are others of us.

By the way, where in the hell did you get the idea that it is rational for you of all people to "expect base competence"--whatever the hell that is--of any government including our own.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Nov, 2007 10:37 pm
We expect some level of competence when a president has the power to send our young men and women to war - to kill and be killed. That's not an unrealistic expectation.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Nov, 2007 11:12 pm
I have no problem whatsoever with the belief that one should expect competence amongst those tasked with the mutual governance of our society. In fact, I nearly think I must insist upon it.

I think that any citizen of any freely elected nation should expect and demand no less. I think that every human is given the ability to look at a given situation and judge for themselves, based upon available evidence, the difficulty of coming up with conservative projections. Naturally some will be better then others at this task.

I do not wish to have my interests represented by someone who is unable to think one or two moves ahead in a chess game. I would hope that the best our country could offer could do much, much better.

I don't understand why you feel differently than this.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 12:12 pm
That's been the major problem with Bush; he always looks at the positives of past activity. He has no ability to look forward at any problem he creates. He gets his message from god, then shoots from the hips - hoping the bullet hits the right target. So far, he's missed the target about 100 percent of the time. The only thing positive about Bush is his consistency to screw up everything he touches.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 12:13 pm
We can predict with pretty good accuracy what any result will be when Bush says he's going to do something.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 03:05 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
I have no problem whatsoever with the belief that one should expect competence amongst those tasked with the mutual governance of our society. In fact, I nearly think I must insist upon it.

I think that any citizen of any freely elected nation should expect and demand no less. I think that every human is given the ability to look at a given situation and judge for themselves, based upon available evidence, the difficulty of coming up with conservative projections. Naturally some will be better then others at this task.

I do not wish to have my interests represented by someone who is unable to think one or two moves ahead in a chess game. I would hope that the best our country could offer could do much, much better.

I don't understand why you feel differently than this.

Cycloptichorn

I think you are not competent enough to recognize a candidate who is competent enough.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 03:14 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
We can predict with pretty good accuracy what any result will be when Bush says he's going to do something.

You have here in this forum FREQUENTLY demonstrated that you cannot "predict with pretty good accuracy what any result will be when Bush says he's going to do something. You have FREQUENTLY demonstrated that you are unable to predict with pretty good accuracy what any result will be when Bush DOES something. You have FREQUENTLY demonstrated that you are unable to EVALUATE with pretty good accuracy any result of what Bush DID.
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 03:41 pm
Paying one of my infrequent visits to the thread, and noting with some regret that Ican is still alive.

Crying or Very sad
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 04:02 pm
ican711nm wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
I have no problem whatsoever with the belief that one should expect competence amongst those tasked with the mutual governance of our society. In fact, I nearly think I must insist upon it.

I think that any citizen of any freely elected nation should expect and demand no less. I think that every human is given the ability to look at a given situation and judge for themselves, based upon available evidence, the difficulty of coming up with conservative projections. Naturally some will be better then others at this task.

I do not wish to have my interests represented by someone who is unable to think one or two moves ahead in a chess game. I would hope that the best our country could offer could do much, much better.

I don't understand why you feel differently than this.

Cycloptichorn

I think you are not competent enough to recognize a candidate who is competent enough.


This is getting dangerously close to the realm of personal insult.

And I don't mind that. I just want to make sure that this is the direction you're looking to go with things; if it is, there's plenty that I could say.

I don't think your comment is in very good taste and would be interested to know where you draw your evidence for this false opinion from.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 04:17 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
I have no problem whatsoever with the belief that one should expect competence amongst those tasked with the mutual governance of our society. In fact, I nearly think I must insist upon it.

I think that any citizen of any freely elected nation should expect and demand no less. I think that every human is given the ability to look at a given situation and judge for themselves, based upon available evidence, the difficulty of coming up with conservative projections. Naturally some will be better then others at this task.

I do not wish to have my interests represented by someone who is unable to think one or two moves ahead in a chess game. I would hope that the best our country could offer could do much, much better.

I don't understand why you feel differently than this.

Cycloptichorn

I think you are not competent enough to recognize a candidate who is competent enough.


This is getting dangerously close to the realm of personal insult.

And I don't mind that. I just want to make sure that this is the direction you're looking to go with things; if it is, there's plenty that I could say.

I don't think your comment is in very good taste and would be interested to know where you draw your evidence for this false opinion from.

Cycloptichorn

Most recently, it was your advocacy of the validity of the Lancet study, and the arguments you used to deny the obvious flaws in that study that led me to conclude the truth of what I for sometime previously only suspected was true.

However, I am not accusing you of anything other than what is true for me to some degree. I hope, but cannot prove, that I am to a less degree incompetent than you. But I hasten to add that even if I am correct about my lesser incompetence, the magnitude of the difference is tiny compared to the level of our incompetence.

In short, I believe your biggest problem is your presumption of competence in the face of solid evidence otherwise.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 04:29 pm
I rest comfortably on my record of achievement and am not swayed in the slightest by your uninformed assumption.

Our discussion re: the Lancet study really only confirmed the fact that you are not a statistician, and are more interested in looking for 'gotchas' in order to try and attack a situation, then in actually performing study and research pertaining to said situation. There were no 'obvious flaws,' which somehow only were found by you, and the rest of those who chose to attack the lancet study - and those who chose to publish it - were somehow not able to do so. It is nothing more then hubris combined with an amateurish knowledge of statistics which leads you to make the claims you do, and that's a dangerous combination.

I presume that I am capable of judging a situation for which I am presented adequate information. I believe that most people are capable of this to one degree or another. I think that you should speak for yourself only when talking about comparative incompetence, for I do not agree that I lack the competence to be a productive citizen of our society.

I would formally request that you either step up to me with more cutting insults, or just give the game up; it's better for you in the long run, that way.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 09:34 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
I rest comfortably on my record of achievement and am not swayed in the slightest by your uninformed assumption.
...
Cycloptichorn

Crying or Very sad
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 29 Nov, 2007 09:59 pm
"The American people expect us to work together to support our troops. That's what they want," he said, after spending several hours meeting at the Pentagon with military leaders. "They do not want the government to create needless uncertainty for those defending our country and uncertainty for their families. They do not want disputes in Washington to undermine our troops in Iraq just as they're seeing clear signs of success."

Democrats had proposed paying for several months of combat instead of a full year as Bush wants. But their bills also would have ordered troop withdrawals from Iraq. With such legislation failing to secure enough votes, Democratic leaders say they won't send the president a war spending bill this year at all.

In response, Pentagon officials began saying that the military will have to take drastic steps next month if it doesn't get the money soon. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has ordered the Army and Marine Corps to begin planning for a series of expected cutbacks, including civilian layoffs, termination of contracts and reduced operations at bases.


Tell Bush that the proper way to "support our troops" is to fund their benefits 100 percent, and to care for our veterans when they come home from any combat area.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 30 Nov, 2007 02:50 pm
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/
A Month by Month, Daily Average of IBC's Count of Violent Deaths in Iraq, After April 30, 2007:

May = 3,755 / 31 = ……………….... 121 per day


…………….. Surge fully operational in June ……………..

June = 2,386 / 30 = …………......…. 80 per day.
July = 2,077 / 31 = ………….......... 67 per day.
August = 2,084 / 31 = ……...…..... 67 per day.
September = 1,333 / 30 = ………... 44 per day.
October = 1,962 / 31 = ……...….... 63 per day
November = 414 / 10 = …………….... 41 per day.*
{414 = 84502 - 84,088}
December= ----? / 31 = ----? per day.**

… *Data currently available for only first 10 days of this month.
… **Data not yet available.
_____________________________________________________________________________

As of October 31, 2007, Total Iraq Violent Deaths since January 1, 2003 = 84,088
_____________________________________________________________________________

Daily Average Violent Deaths in Iraq--PRE and POST January 1, 2003:

PRE = 1/1/1979 - 12/31/2002 = 1,229,210/ 8,766 days = 140 per day;

POST = 1/1/2003 - 11/10/2007 = 84,502/1,775 days = ….. 48 per day;

PRE / POST = 140/48 = 2.95.
_____________________________________________________________________________

We must win and succeed in Iraq, because we Americans will suffer significant losses of our freedoms, if we do not win and succeed in Iraq.

The USA wins and succeeds in Iraq when the daily rate of violent deaths in Iraq decreases below 30, remains less than 30, while we are removing our troops, and remains less than 30 for at least a year after we have completed our departure.

============================================================


http://www.icasualties.org
MILITARY FATALITIES IN IRAQ BY MONTH

As of November 30, 2007 = 1717 days in Iraq.

Month .... Totals ……. US ….. UK …. OCC …. DA
11-2007 ..... 40 ………. 37……. 2 …….. 1 …… 1.3{=40/30}
10-2007 ...... 40 ……….. 38 …... 1 …….. 1 ……. 1
9-2007 ........ 69 ……….. 65 ……. 2 …….. 2 ……. 2
8-2007 ........ 88 ……….. 84 ……. 4 …….. 0 ……. 3
7-2007 ........ 87 ……….. 78 ……. 8 …….. 1 ……. 3
6-2007 ….... 108 ………. 101 ……. 7 …….. 0 ……. 4
5-2007 ....... 131 ……… 126 …... 3 …….. 2 ……. 4
4-2007 ....... 117 …….. 104 …… 12 …….. 1 ……. 4
3-2007 ........ 82 ……….. 81 ….… 1 ……… 0 ……. 3
2-2007 ........ 84 ……….. 81 ….… 3 ……… 1 ……. 3
1-2007 ........ 86 ……….. 83 ….… 3 ……… 0 ……. 3

...

3-2003 ….... 92 ....... 65 ….... 27 …….... 0 ……. 3 …
Total .... 4187 …. 3881 …. 173 ..... 133 …… 2.44{=4187/1717}

US=United States
UK=United Kingdom
OCC=Other Coalition Countries
DA=Daily Average (for the month)

============================================================
0 Replies
 
 

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