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CHIRAC, SARKOZY The French Right prepares for presidentials

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Apr, 2007 03:22 pm
I don't doubt that. I copied/pasted from the print version where the graphics clearly say that they used data from the Libération.

http://i17.tinypic.com/2s8ic6q.jpg

Besides that I doubt that there are any new data at all, since no new polls were done.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Apr, 2007 03:29 pm
Yes, but the Liberation graphs are for the adjusted data, not the raw data,

Of course there are polls - they just can't be published in France today.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Apr, 2007 03:31 pm
High Seas wrote:

Of course there are polls - they just can't be published in France today.


Sure?

Wonna bet? :wink:
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Apr, 2007 01:42 am
The six possible results as seen by today's 'Le Journal du Dimanche (pages 2 & 3)

http://i19.tinypic.com/30x7dx5.jpg

http://i14.tinypic.com/4fvf6gz.jpg
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Apr, 2007 09:12 am
At 12 o'clock local time, 31.12% had already voted - that's 10% more (sic!) than in the 2002 elections!
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Apr, 2007 02:51 pm
The first projection (from more than an hour ago) ...

http://i14.tinypic.com/44gx24x.jpg

... doesn'r show much changes to what was said at 18:01 h

According to French tv TF1: about 85% voted ...

http://i16.tinypic.com/2ugz969.jpg

http://i18.tinypic.com/48wfjhl.jpg
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Apr, 2007 03:17 pm
According to French tv TF1: about 85% voted ... [img wrote:


That is what i am hearing
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Apr, 2007 06:33 pm
Very interesting outcome. Based on the above projections Sarkozy & Royal together captured 55% of the vote. The remaining 45% went to Bayrou (18%); Le Pen (11.5%); and everyone else (15%). It seems reasonable to assume that, in a Sarkozy -- Royal second round, Sarkozy will capture most of the Le Pen vote and Royal a large share of the "everyone else vote" (Perhaps that includes you, Francis). If so, the election may be determined by the second choice of the Bayrou voters. I don't have any useful intuition on this point, however, I continue to believe Sarkozy will win.

I believe the two round French system has some real merit. If I understand the rules correctly, a second round of voting is required if no candidate captures an absolute majority in the first vote. A second round will include only the top two candidates, based on the first vote.

Consider the 1992 U.S. Presidential election in which we had three serious contenders -- Bush I; Clinton; and Ross Perot -- none of whom won an absolute majority. It is interesting to speculate what the outcome might have been in a two round selection, with the final between Bush I and Clinton.

We have also accumulated some rather good evidence of the defects of hereditary transfers of power.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Apr, 2007 07:21 pm
I thought that Bayrou would have done better. More like 20-22%.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Apr, 2007 10:45 pm
http://i16.tinypic.com/35bv70x.jpg

http://i11.tinypic.com/2hxmx5t.jpg
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2007 12:41 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
..Royal a large share of the "everyone else vote" (Perhaps that includes you, Francis).


Well, I'm glad to tell you I'll not vote on the second round, as I'll be far from France. I've not even planned an absentee vote...
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2007 01:49 pm
raisins aigres ??
0 Replies
 
Francis
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2007 02:02 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
raisins aigres ??


Sour grappes - raisins verts. That's for sure!
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2007 03:29 pm
What the hell. I didn't much like Bush, but I hated Kerry & Clinton far more.

Why should the French have it any better ?
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2007 06:05 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Very interesting outcome. Based on the above projections Sarkozy & Royal together captured 55% of the vote.

Yep. Thats one of the main elements in the outcome, especially compared to the super-fractured outcome of the first round in 2002: a return to the main parties, a re-coalescence so to say. That 55% for the top two compares with 37% last time round, and just 44% even in 1995.

For his part, Sarkozy got a higher percentage than any past conservative candidate got in the first round since Giscard d'Estaing in 1974. But at the same time, Royal did better than the Socialist Party candidates have done since Mitterand in 1988.

That both did so well is especially impressive considering there was a surprisingly powerful third party challenge, with Bayrou's ascendance in the campaign still the other main story of these elections. Together, the three of them mobilised three-quarters of the vote. That is a real cultural rupture in France, where the top three pooled only 53% in 2002 and 63% in 1995.

The rupture is in turn underlined by the voter turnout - more people registered to vote, and significantly more registered voters actually turned out to vote.

In Le Monde, Arnaud Leparmentier today noted that by casting their votes like this, the voters "rid the first [presidential] elections round of its role as [..] a makeshift substitute for the proportional system that the parliamentary elections fail to offer". The past decade or two, voters have used the first round of the presidentials to cast a quasi parliamentary type vote to show which party they really liked best - a luxury not offered in the district run-offs of the actual parliamentary elections. The shock of Le Pen making it through to the second round in 2002 has taken away this luxury from them - so for the first time in some two decades, one could say, they really already voted for president in the first round.

georgeob1 wrote:
The remaining 45% went to Bayrou (18%); Le Pen (11.5%); and everyone else (15%). It seems reasonable to assume that, in a Sarkozy -- Royal second round, Sarkozy will capture most of the Le Pen vote and Royal a large share of the "everyone else vote" (Perhaps that includes you, Francis). If so, the election may be determined by the second choice of the Bayrou voters. I don't have any useful intuition on this point, however, I continue to believe Sarkozy will win.

For some reason I had pegged Francis as Bayrou voter myself, but what do I know Razz

But yes, the conclusion is pretty obvious. It doesnt look good (for people of my convictions). Not just because the choice is so lame - but because the one who is clearly the worse of the two is pretty much set to win.

This article has interesting data on what the voters of the respective other candidates say they'll vote in the second round: Une majorité de bayrouistes voteraient, au second tour, pour Nicolas Sarkozy.

The headline has the main story here, though the majority is small: 54% of Bayrou voters say they'll vote Sarkozy; 46% say they'll vote for Royal. But the other details are interesting too.

No surprise is that most Le Pen voters say they'll vote for Sarkozy. Still, one in six says they'll vote for Segolene - more than I'd have thought. (Perhaps because Sarkozy, though an assertive courter of the nationalist and law and order sensitivities of the "Lepenistes", also embraces globalisation and free competition, whereas Le Pen's rhetorics, when it comes to "protecting the common man", has some almost far-left undertones.)

Also no surprise: 95% of the few remaining communist voters and 90% of the supporters of antiglobalist farmer-activist Jose Bove say they'll vote for "Sego". This mirrors the unanimous preference of the voters of small candidates on the right like nationalist De Villiers and rural/pro-hunting Nihous for "Sarko".

But like Le Pen's voters, those who supported the Green candidate or one of the three "extreme left" (read: Trotskyite) candidates - btw, France must be the only country where the definition of "extreme left" is those who are to the left of the communists and greens Razz - are less predictable than you might think. One in six Besancenot voters and almost one in four voters of the Green Dominique Voynet and the long-running "Worker's Struggle" candidate Arlette Laguiller say they'll vote for Sarkozy.

The samples here must of course be very small, considering that Laguiller dropped from her all-time high of 5,7% last time round to a miserable 1,3% now, but still make one wonder - or free associate, rather..:

An article noted today that Segolene Royal got as high a first round result as Mitterand did back in the day of the 1981 elections that brought the Left to power - "but times have changed", because the back-up reservoir to the left of the Socialists has emptied. In 1981, old-timer and hard-liner Georges Marchais still brought in over 15% of the vote for the Communists. Despite attempts to renew themselves (or the lack of them), the Communists dropped to 7% in 1988, when Mitterand ruled supreme. They benefited only slightly from the subsequent implosion of the Socialists when they got 9% in 1995. Then came the disastrous result of 2002, when Communist Party candidate Robert Hue had to see two Trotskyites do better than him, getting just 3,4% - which was followed by yet another round of "pragmatisation" and the controversial imposition of reformist candidate Marie-George Buffet, only to see the share of the vote drop to a moribund 1,9% - less than half that of the Trot mailman, Olivier Besancenot. Even in the Communist bulwark of Seine Saint-Denis, which makes up one third of the Paris suburbs, and where the Communist Party still has a majority of seats in the local council, she got just 4,3% - and less than Besancenot.

This time round, all the left-of-the-left candidates together got just 10%; compared to one-quarter of the vote in 1981. Where have the others gone? Where have the communists gone?

When you look at the map of 2002, you cant help noticing that many of Le Pen's main bulwarks were in the working-class regions of France that once were Communist domains. By ways of anecdotal evidence, there was the "Front National" episode of the fascinating series in Le Monde that, every few days, interviewed regular voters of the different candidates - just people found at one of the many mass meetings held in the election campaign, which in themselves were a striking, "reborn" feature of these elections. A proud and angry young man explained how he was from a Communist family, himself - but how he had become a devoted Front National supporter, and had now convinced his parents to vote FN too.

They must not have been the only ones - and some of them will, in turn, now have moved to Sarkozy. For the first time in many years, I think one French newspaper article said, the right outdid the left in the working-class northern department Pas-de-Calais, with Sarkozy himself narrowly beating out Royal too. (Mind you, in Seine Saint-Denis Royal beat Sarkozy 42:20.)

Anyway - that much on that digression. Back to the impending second round. If we calculate the numbers given in the article about what third-party voters say they'll vote, we see that Sarkozy would get 55% exactly in the second round, and Royal 45%. All the dissenters from the left who say they'll divert to Sarkozy together make up just 1,7%, so there's not much to win there. The only solution for Segolene is to somehow persuade three-quarters of Bayrou voters. Unlikely.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2007 11:02 pm
I'm thinking closer to 60% for Sarkozy. (Besides being a Socialist ... Royal est une femme )
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2007 11:18 pm
After reading Jane Kramer's article on the French election(s) in last week's New Yorker, I don't want either candidate to win...

Link to 'Round One'
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2007 11:37 pm
But there's no other choice :wink:

The official results:

http://i11.tinypic.com/2hds4rs.jpg

And an interesting comment in today's Guardian:

http://i14.tinypic.com/434j52d.jpg

Do not be fooled by Sarkozy: France's soul is still leftwing

Quote:
Ségolène Royal has squandered a golden opportunity of defeating Sarkozy, whose brutal political style and neoliberal agenda engender such widespread fear. But that opportunity is not altogether gone, for she has not lost her major asset: Sarkozy himself. Surfing on a Tout Sauf Sarkozy coalition ("Anybody But Sarkozy"), Royal might just make it.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Apr, 2007 08:26 am
Clearly the crypto Sarko supporters are coming out of the woods. Perhaps even Nimh is acclimating himself to the emerging reality. (although it appears that certain Westphalian Social Democrats will never be reconciled).
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 24 Apr, 2007 08:37 am
Your view of that appearance isn't wrong at all.
0 Replies
 
 

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