@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:
You're going to add 20-40 million people, many with expensive medical conditions that will cause the insurance companies to lose money insuring those people, which will be fixed by raising prices on everyone who isn't sick.
You are absolutely right, but is that necessairily bad? If we're going to have the entire population adequately insured, the people with a few, small claims are obviously going to carry the freight for those with expensive, and long term conditions. That's the only way insurance can work. Whether you get there by mandating private insurance, private insurance with govt. option, or go whole hog and adopt a single payer system, the same principle is going to apply. Now, govt. involvement may involve some subsidies and make it
look like the costs have just gone away, but the healthy are always going to be supporting the rest. The only way out of it is to require medical insurance, with each person's premium being relative to the expected cost of his or her treatment. This is not much different than what we have now, except for the word "required." If that is what you want, there are merits to the idea, but it puts us back where we started. The insurance costs for some people with, say, cancer, are going to exceed the total income of most people in the country, even the ones with the magical $250,000 per year incomes.
I don't see such a plan raising the costs to all, by the way, but it is definately going to shift costs from one group to another. Again, while a public option may take the worst risks out of the private insurance pool, they're still going to be in someone's pool, and losses in the public pool are going to be paid by the same old public.
I take that back. It won't be paid for by the entire public. But it is going to be paid for by the part of the public with taxable incomes. It is going to be paid for in reduced services, and oh yeah, it is going to be paid for with "savings from waste, inefficiency, and unnecessary treatment." That sounds like a choice between less benefits, or more distribution of wealth.