65
   

IT'S TIME FOR UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE

 
 
FreeDuck
 
  2  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 04:09 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
OCCOM BILL wrote:

One would think even a casual perusal of Medical Malpractice Insurance rates would suffice. The most rudimentary understanding of risk/reward ratios should eliminate the need for more specific correlation.

That's almost sufficient, but we still need to make a correlation between high malpractice insurance rates and frivolous lawsuits and unreasonable awards. (Unless we're saying we should just eliminate the ability to sue for malpractice, at which point the whole problem instantly disappears.)

Quote:
To exasperate the problem even further; many jurisdictions have already went ahead and instituted Tort Reform (like your home state, for instance)(that coincidentally used to be a high premium state and is now on the low end of the spectrum). This means Doctors who get picked on the most, like OBGYN's, can avoid exorbitant Insurance premiums by relocating to a jurisdiction with more favorable laws. This results in a shortage of qualified health care providers and especially specialists in area's that have not yet instituted reform. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that, as always, the poorer communities are the first to go without.

I do think Texas should make a good case study. I was looking today for more specific information on that.

spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 05:10 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
This is the peril of arguing from assertion: it is not compelling.


That statement wipes out about 99% of the arguments I have seen on A2K.

At least.
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 05:21 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Not one of your sources proves anything I wrote was wrong. As soon as you compute California into "In states that have substantially limited consumers’ ability to go to court for medical malpractice, the insurance premiums for doctors are basically the same as in other states", you've blown your own average all to hell. What else costs roughly the same in California? Anything? How many people live there? As for your straw creation that I ever claimed Malpractice suits "are driving health care costs", go ahead and torch that beast, because I made no such claim. Are they a contributing factor? Of course... and only a fool would think he needs proof of such a thing.

Watch: If my average meal costs $10... but every 20th or so costs me $210, then the average cost of my meals is $20, right? What happens if I cap even my occasional meals at $50? That's right, my average meal now costs $12. That’s still a pretty nice occasional meal, and a significant savings. Just as surely as more=more, less=less.

Here's a rule of thumb in business to help you get your head around it: Higher expenses=higher costs. I won't be getting out a chart and easel to explain that one either.

And that's just the basic 1=1 equation. The real world is seldom so simple. Obviously, the truth of the legal industry is a little more dynamic. Imagine yourself as a managing partner in a law firm (You’re a bright guy, and could get there if you wanted to.) Among your duties is to determine which suits are worth pursuing. Now let's say it costs X to litigate a particular type of suit, and your odds of scoring a GIANT AWARD are say 20 to 1... but the potential is there to score 100 to 1 if you succeed... do you take that case? Of course you do! What happens when reform comes in and drops the potential "big" down to where you can only potentially score 15 to 1... do you still take that type of case? Of course not! Which cases are you still willing to take? That's right... the cases with enough merit to swing the odds back into predicted profitability.

Now look at it from the insurance company's standpoint. In the 100 to 1 scenario, they have little choice but to consider settling virtually every case with true potential for 100 to 1 at something less than that if the odds look favorable to them. In real life terms, that means a ****-load of relatively lower merit cases are being settled for considerably more than they are actually worth, because the risk of losing big is so great.

Limit that exposure and you simultaneously make the lawyer less likely to gamble his dough on questionable cases, not only because the potential for GIANT AWARD is gone, but because the insurance company no longer has to settle at levels still significantly higher than the trial attorney's risk/reward ratio will support… making him even less likely to take the weaker cases to trial.

It matters little how many studies crunch hard numbers of GIANT awards vs. overall costs, because those numbers do not reflect the reality of the real world. In the real world; the cumulative award difference in the sheer volume of smaller settlements that are artificially inflated by the potential for GIANT AWARD, probably dwarves the total of GIANT settlements many times over.

Yes, this is considerably more difficult (if not impossible) to quantify into a graph that will satisfy the doubter with the predisposition to assume more expenses won't result in higher costs. But it is just as true, none the less.

Side note: If you believe the big cash cow insurance companies are basically parasites (and on that I would be inclined to agree with you where they aren’t really necessary… like in Health Care… where a single payer would be perfectly capable of self insuring, thereby eliminating the need for the parasitical middleman), how can you not consider the immense waste in litigation with the same level of disdain? Wiki indicates that 52% of all awards+ settlements go into the pockets of law firms. Now regardless of whether that percentage is accurate; it is a TREMENDOUS amount of money. Much of which, would be much better spent on providing health care. No?
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 05:23 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

Quote:
This is the peril of arguing from assertion: it is not compelling.


That statement wipes out about 99% of the arguments I have seen on A2K.

At least.
I quite agree. The other 1% are well reasoned arguments that constitute actual thought, rather than endless repetition of "somebody else's" thought.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 05:26 pm
@FreeDuck,
FreeDuck wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

One would think even a casual perusal of Medical Malpractice Insurance rates would suffice. The most rudimentary understanding of risk/reward ratios should eliminate the need for more specific correlation.

That's almost sufficient, but we still need to make a correlation between high malpractice insurance rates and frivolous lawsuits and unreasonable awards.
No, we don't. It's enough to accept that higher expepenses equate to higher costs.
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 05:29 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

Obviously it can't Bill but what you say does suggest that the money has a high priority.

It's only "dirty paper" if the ones who have it think it is. When they spend it it is a clean as any other paper.
Be that as it may, and probably is. If given a choice; I'd rather not pay higher health care costs to cover some suffering bastard's overvaluation of dirty paper. Tragedy and profit really shouldn't be welded together.
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  2  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 05:33 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
OCCOM BILL wrote:

FreeDuck wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

One would think even a casual perusal of Medical Malpractice Insurance rates would suffice. The most rudimentary understanding of risk/reward ratios should eliminate the need for more specific correlation.

That's almost sufficient, but we still need to make a correlation between high malpractice insurance rates and frivolous lawsuits and unreasonable awards.
No, we don't. It's enough to accept that higher expepenses equate to higher costs.

No, not really. It doesn't necessarily follow that higher prices are a result of higher costs. There is obviously more involved than that. Moreover, if the costs are high because of legitimate malpractice claims and awards, the solution is not to eliminate them. The solution is to reduce the malpractice. Otherwise you're just limiting patient rights so that insurance companies and doctors can continue to profit, which I don't think is the outcome we're aiming for.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 06:57 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
It's hard for me to see how malpractice insurance and cases can be the driver of higher health costs - as Republicans insist they are - without actual data showing that this is the case. Either the data doesn't exist, or it hasn't been presented by anyone here.

Quote:
As for your straw creation that I ever claimed Malpractice suits "are driving health care costs", go ahead and torch that beast, because I made no such claim.


Well, I know you didn't. But others here have said exactly this, and that was one of the topics under discussion before you came into the thread.

Quote:
Are they a contributing factor? Of course... and only a fool would think he needs proof of such a thing.


In the same way that you never said the one thing above, I never said malpractice costs aren't a part of overall health care costs; however, I haven't seen the data showing that they are a contributor to the rise in costs. When you look at the data, it doesn't seem to indicate this is true - and that's independent of any logical arguments you or I make about it. Sometimes you can make a great argument for something, with good logic - but that doesn't mean that this is actually the case.

Quote:

Side note: If you believe the big cash cow insurance companies are basically parasites (and on that I would be inclined to agree with you where they aren’t really necessary… like in Health Care… where a single payer would be perfectly capable of self insuring, thereby eliminating the need for the parasitical middleman), how can you not consider the immense waste in litigation with the same level of disdain? Wiki indicates that 52% of all awards+ settlements go into the pockets of law firms. Now regardless of whether that percentage is accurate; it is a TREMENDOUS amount of money. Much of which, would be much better spent on providing health care. No?


Oh, I don't know. I'm not against meaningful tort reform for it's own sake, but it isn't going to be a significant cost saver. It's like McCain's War against Earmarks - 1% of the bill.

Quote:
Imagine yourself as a managing partner in a law firm (You’re a bright guy, and could get there if you wanted to.)


I would have to spend quite some time back in school, for I am not a Lawyer.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Aug, 2009 07:47 pm
@FreeDuck,
FreeDuck wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

FreeDuck wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

One would think even a casual perusal of Medical Malpractice Insurance rates would suffice. The most rudimentary understanding of risk/reward ratios should eliminate the need for more specific correlation.

That's almost sufficient, but we still need to make a correlation between high malpractice insurance rates and frivolous lawsuits and unreasonable awards.
No, we don't. It's enough to accept that higher expenses equate to higher costs.

No, not really. It doesn't necessarily follow that higher prices are a result of higher costs. There is obviously more involved than that. Moreover, if the costs are high because of legitimate malpractice claims and awards, the solution is not to eliminate them. The solution is to reduce the malpractice. Otherwise you're just limiting patient rights so that insurance companies and doctors can continue to profit, which I don't think is the outcome we're aiming for.
You're not thinking this through full circle. The Doctors and/or Insurance companies may not drop their prices overnight because their costs go down, but in the free market world there is a limit to how much you can profit before a competitor comes in to underbid you. Lower costs inevitably lead to lower costs where ample competition exists.

And no one is suggesting we limit economic loss-based awards in any way, shape, or form. Tort reform is about limiting the non-economic awards. If $250,000 won't make you feel better about your loss, that's just tough luck. There should indeed be a limit on how much other people should have to pay to make you feel better. This is wholly independent from actual damages, which can still run well into the millions and are unaffected by Tort Reform. As I explained to Cyclo above, a non-economic award of $50,000,000 costs a hell of a lot more than $50,000,000. The prospect of such, opens the doors to 200 times more litigation, because the break-even point allows for 200 times more losses, while providing the same simple risk/reward margin.

But it is NOT that simple. The exposure to such incredible risk also provides that it is mathematically logical to settle cases at significantly higher settlement amounts (and/or significantly weaker, less merited cases) than they would otherwise merit. This leverage means the insurance company's break even point on a case that's has a 1 in a 1,000 chance of reaching such a plateau is worth $50,000 ($5,000 at 10,000 to 1 and so on). At $50,000 for a break-even over-under, I'd wager most lawyers are interested in taking this weak ass case, if only for a shot at a quick settlement. Now cap it at $250,000... A 1,000 to 1--> lousy case is worth $250... not enough to get a lawyer to show up for the initial appearance. Cases with higher degrees of merit remain compelling, because the relative odds against winning drop as the degree of merit increases.

The result? Many, if not most frivolous lawsuits aren't pursued because the formula no longer makes them profitable pursue. Settlement offers drop to levels mandated by actual, not feel-good damages. All of this happens not just because the GIANT award is no longer possible, but also because the possibility is no longer there to give attorney's massive leverage, with weaker cases. Really... this cannot be hard to understand to anyone who gives it a legitimate try.

Cyclo, see above. It is my final effort to express what should be an obvious point of consideration. I'm not "the Republicans", and I'm not claiming Tort Reform alone will fix our health care system. I am arguing that reducing the costs on everyone in a way that will in no way reduce the quality of care available (quite the contrary, when one considers the areas being abandoned by specialists now) is in everyone but the lawyers who specialize in doctor demonizing and the relative few who think $250,000 is an insufficient feel-good award.
FreeDuck
 
  2  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 06:50 am
@OCCOM BILL,
OCCOM BILL wrote:

And no one is suggesting we limit economic loss-based awards in any way, shape, or form. Tort reform is about limiting the non-economic awards. If $250,000 won't make you feel better about your loss, that's just tough luck. There should indeed be a limit on how much other people should have to pay to make you feel better. This is wholly independent from actual damages, which can still run well into the millions and are unaffected by Tort Reform. As I explained to Cyclo above, a non-economic award of $50,000,000 costs a hell of a lot more than $50,000,000. The prospect of such, opens the doors to 200 times more litigation, because the break-even point allows for 200 times more losses, while providing the same simple risk/reward margin.

But it is NOT that simple. The exposure to such incredible risk also provides that it is mathematically logical to settle cases at significantly higher settlement amounts (and/or significantly weaker, less merited cases) than they would otherwise merit. This leverage means the insurance company's break even point on a case that's has a 1 in a 1,000 chance of reaching such a plateau is worth $50,000 ($5,000 at 10,000 to 1 and so on). At $50,000 for a break-even over-under, I'd wager most lawyers are interested in taking this weak ass case, if only for a shot at a quick settlement. Now cap it at $250,000... A 1,000 to 1--> lousy case is worth $250... not enough to get a lawyer to show up for the initial appearance. Cases with higher degrees of merit remain compelling, because the relative odds against winning drop as the degree of merit increases.

The result? Many, if not most frivolous lawsuits aren't pursued because the formula no longer makes them profitable pursue. Settlement offers drop to levels mandated by actual, not feel-good damages. All of this happens not just because the GIANT award is no longer possible, but also because the possibility is no longer there to give attorney's massive leverage, with weaker cases. Really... this cannot be hard to understand to anyone who gives it a legitimate try.

Oh, that all makes perfect sense in theory, but I'd like to see actual data. What were the actual costs to insurance companies for non-economic damages in Texas before they instituted tort reform? How many of those could be considered frivolous? What is the ratio of lawsuits to actual medical mistakes? What are the effects on people for whom economic damages would not be much -- children, non-working spouses, the elderly. My point is that it's easy to understand and explain how limiting damages and restricting access to the courts will bring down insurance company costs which then should bring down malpractice insurance premiums, but what is not clear is by how much and whether that comes at a cost to patients who actually are injured.

Like Cyclo, I'd like to see some actual numbers and not hypothetical ones. I also realize that this is really the only point of contention I have with you as I agree with you on most everything else related to health care.

Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 09:01 am
@OCCOM BILL,
Bill,

It's not that you can't make a good argument for your case - of course you can. But without data, it's not a meaningful argument. This data should be readily available, if it truly reflects our actual situation. I haven't seen that data.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with asking for data during an online discussion, or a link to sources. I consistently have maintained here that Tort reform would lead to no significant savings on health care costs, and no evidence has been introduced showing that it would. The amount paid out is a minuscule fraction of our overall costs; even if it were cut to zero, health care costs would still be rising. It wouldn't even make a dent.

The 'defensive medicine' theory that is put forth by many Republicans and others also seems to have precious little evidence to support it. Why is there no evidence for any of this? I suspect, because it is massively overblown and started with anecdotal data to begin with.

What would help limit rising costs and unneccesary tests more than Tort reform, would be preventing doctor ownership of hospital groups and clinics. How many docs prescribe an MRI which is unneccessary, b/c they and their group are making oodles of money off of that test on every end? Not a few, I would guess.

Cycloptichorn
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 09:47 am
@FreeDuck,
You don't seem to care about real dollars and real values when we're talking about how to pay for healthcare. All I seem to get are vague responses, with ideas, but no $$ values.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 09:49 am
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:

You don't seem to care about real dollars and real values when we're talking about how to pay for healthcare. All I seem to get are vague responses, with ideas, but no $$ values.


But, that's exactly the data FD and I are requesting - real values. Nobody seems to be able to produce them, re: tort damages and how they supposedly are a 'driver' of health-care costs.

Cycloptichorn
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 09:50 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

. I consistently have maintained here that Tort reform would lead to no significant savings on health care costs, and no evidence has been introduced showing that it would.

Where is your evidence for your assertion?

Cycloptichorn wrote:

The amount paid out is a minuscule fraction of our overall costs; even if it were cut to zero, health care costs would still be rising. It wouldn't even make a dent.


Again, where is your evidence?

Look up medical malpractice on Wiki and you'll find this;
Quote:

About 10 percent of the cost of medical services is linked to malpractice lawsuits and more intensive diagnostic testing due to defensive medicine, according to a January 2006 report prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP for the insurers’ group America’s Health Insurance Plans...The figures were taken from a March 2003 study by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that estimated the direct cost of medical malpractice was 2 percent of the nation’s health-care spending and said defensive medical practices accounted for 5 percent to 9 percent of the overall expense."


10% of the total cost is a big deal. Not all of it can be eliminated, but a reduction of half would be a huge savings - more than can be achieved by other readily available means. Unfortunately it would cut off an important source of political contributions to Democrats and, of course, John Edward's income.

Ignorance is not a sufficient excuse to demand that others do your basic research.
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 09:53 am
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:

You don't seem to care about real dollars and real values when we're talking about how to pay for healthcare. All I seem to get are vague responses, with ideas, but no $$ values.

I'm not the CBO.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 09:57 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

. I consistently have maintained here that Tort reform would lead to no significant savings on health care costs, and no evidence has been introduced showing that it would.

Where is your evidence for your assertion?


I have provided it. I linked to two separate studies on the last page, both of which detailed just how little Tort costs add to our health-care costs in real terms.

Quote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:

The amount paid out is a minuscule fraction of our overall costs; even if it were cut to zero, health care costs would still be rising. It wouldn't even make a dent.


Again, where is your evidence?


Again, on the last page. Go look.

Quote:
Look up medical malpractice on Wiki and you'll find this;
Quote:

About 10 percent of the cost of medical services is linked to malpractice lawsuits and more intensive diagnostic testing due to defensive medicine, according to a January 2006 report prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP for the insurers’ group America’s Health Insurance Plans...The figures were taken from a March 2003 study by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that estimated the direct cost of medical malpractice was 2 percent of the nation’s health-care spending and said defensive medical practices accounted for 5 percent to 9 percent of the overall expense."


10% of the total cost is a big deal. Not all of it can be eliminated, but a reduction of half would be a huge savings - more than can be achieved by other readily available means. Unfortunately it would cut off an important source of political contributions to Democrats and, of course, John Edward's income.[/quote]

AHIP is an industry group which represents America's health insurers. They have a vested interest in presenting the costs as high as possible, as one of their prime policy goals is Tort Reform - it would save them a lot of money.

This is like asking the Coal industry to give you figures on coal pollution. The data presented is likely to be somewhat far from the truth.

Additionally, I followed the links in Wikipedia which your quote was taken from - they lead here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az9qxQZNmf0o

Which does indeed include your quote. It also includes gems such as:

Quote:

A 2004 report by the Congressional Budget Office also pegged medical malpractice costs at 2 percent of U.S. health spending and “even significant reductions” would do little to reduce the growth of health-care expenses.


Quote:

Medical malpractice is “not a major driver” of spending trends in recent years, Indianapolis-based WellPoint, the largest U.S. insurer by enrollment, said in May 27 report. The report cited advances in medical technology, increasing regulation and rising obesity as more significant reasons for rising costs.


Quote:

Malpractice is “a big issue for doctors but whether it’s a big issue for the American health-care system is another question,” Laszewski, the consultant, said in a telephone interview. “There are studies that indicate that medical malpractice reform would not have a huge impact on costs, but that is not what doctors think.”


Studies such as this one, from Kaiser -

http://www.kaiseredu.org/topics_im.asp?id=226&imID=1&parentID=59

Here's one of the studies I posted on the last page again -

http://www.insurance-reform.org/TrueRiskF.pdf

Quote:
In fact, medical malpractice claims constitute one-fifth of one percent of annual health care costs in the country, according to the report.


Quote:

Ignorance is not a sufficient excuse to demand that others do your basic research.


Nobody is demanding that you do 'their' basic research, George. You need to do your own basic research. You haven't bothered, probably b/c you have been reflexively arguing from assertion for years, and nobody has given you a hard time about it. This has lead to a string of weak arguments from you on this thread.

I have presented several sources who claim you are wrong, George. You have yet to respond in kind. I applaud your attempt to go to Wikipedia, as it is the first documented evidence you have attempted to introduce that I can recall. It's a good first step. But even that evidence, when examined, provided plenty of food for my argument and muddied yours. You ought to examine your sources a little better.

Cycloptichorn
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 09:58 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Look up medical malpractice on Wiki and you'll find this;
Quote:

About 10 percent of the cost of medical services is linked to malpractice lawsuits and more intensive diagnostic testing due to defensive medicine, according to a January 2006 report prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP for the insurers’ group America’s Health Insurance Plans...The figures were taken from a March 2003 study by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that estimated the direct cost of medical malpractice was 2 percent of the nation’s health-care spending and said defensive medical practices accounted for 5 percent to 9 percent of the overall expense."

But tort reform won't eliminate or reduce malpractice, it will only reduce the ability to sue for it. So again, if tort reform is proposed as a means of reducing the cost of malpractice to doctors and insurers (and thereby reducing health care costs) then it seems fair to ask how much of the cost of malpractice is due to frivolous lawsuits or excessive awards. If the evidence is there I'm perfectly willing to change my position and support it (though obviously not as a first priority). I've just never seen the case made except by theory.

maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 10:02 am
@Cycloptichorn,
I'm not aruging that they can't product the TORT reform values.

I'm arguing that you don't seem to care about real values when I'M talking about the overall cost of Obama's healtcare initiative.

I just wish you were consistant. We either care about real dollars (I do), or we don't.
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 10:03 am
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Nobody is demanding that you do 'their' basic research, George. You need to do your own basic research. You haven't bothered, probably b/c you have been reflexively arguing from assertion for years, and nobody has given you a hard time about it. This has lead to a string of weak arguments from you on this thread.

To be fair, I'm not sure any of us can find the information that I'm looking for simply because I have looked for it myself. There are dueling reports by various agencies and firms each with their own interests but the data itself is probably something that only the insurance companies could provide. Which I guess is my point -- not that any A2K poster is not doing their homework, just that the people who have been pushing this are not backing it up with hard data.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Aug, 2009 10:03 am
@FreeDuck,
So I'm sure that before you'll support Obama and the Democrat's healthcare proposal, you'll want a full and detailed accounting of how the bill will be deficit neutral, right?
 

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