McCain 08?

Quote:

"I do believe this issue isn't going to be around in 2008. I think it's going to either tip into civil war … " He breaks off, as if not wanting to rehearse the handful of other unattractive possibilities. "Listen," he says, "I believe in prayer. I pray every night." And that's where he leaves his discussion of the war this morning: at the kneeling rail.

McCain no longer rocks in Granite State
By Brett Arends
Boston Herald Business Columnist

Thursday, January 18, 2007 - Updated: 12:17 PM EST

As Mitt, Hillary, Barack and a dozen others jump into the presidential stampede, something interesting is happening in New Hampshire.

For seven years, conventional wisdom has said that the state's pivotal independent voters would line up behind maverick Sen. John McCain, as they did so famously in the 2000 GOP primary. But new polling data, to be released later this week, will suggest that might no longer be the case.

Manchester, N.H.-based American Research Group finds that McCain's popularity among New Hampshire's independent voters has collapsed.

"John McCain is tanking," says ARG president Dick Bennett. "That's the big thing [we're finding]. In New Hampshire a year ago he got 49 percent among independent voters. That number's way down, to 29 percent now."

American Research Group, which is New Hampshire's leading polling company and has been operating in the state since 1976, polled 1,200 likely Granite State voters in the survey.

Bennett says ARG is finding a similar trend in other states polled, including early primary battlegrounds like Iowa and Nevada. "We're finding this everywhere," he says.

The main reason isn't hard to find: His hawkish stance on the Iraq war, which is tying him ever more closely to an unpopular president. "Independent support for McCain is evaporating because they view him as tied to Bush," says Bennett.

The McCain camp yesterday said the senator, who is pushing for a bigger troop surge in Iraq than the president, will stick by his guns. "He has been and will remain committed to achieving victory in Iraq," a spokesman said.

New Hampshire is among the states that allow independents to vote in either party's primary. It was their support that gave McCain his huge primary victory there over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in 2000.

If the senator is losing that base, it opens the GOP race to other challengers. And it weakens his strongest pitch to Republican die-hards - namely that his appeal to independents makes him the most electable candidate in the general election.

"It's significant that McCain is going down rather than up at this critical juncture in the early maneuvering," comments Larry Sabato, who chairs the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "It suggests that, contrary to conventional wisdom, John McCain may not be secure as the GOP front-runner. But a lot can change."

The big question for 2008: Where will all those independents end up?

Mitt Romney could have made a strong pitch to them if he weren't instead running to the right. ARG's poll finds some like Rudy Giuliani. Others, switching sides, are warming to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.

But most are now up for grabs.

Opponents of the war from all parts of the country have begun action campaigns to demand that Congress block the escalation. Last week more than 1,000 opposition rallies were held in all 50 states and a new campaign was launched -- Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, which brings together labor unions, veterans' organizations, domestic agenda groups and anti-war organizations

The Vanity Fair article on John McCain. It's lengthy but good.

http://www.vanityfair.com./politics/features/2007/02/mccain200702?printable=true&currentPage=all

his failure has raised questions about his ability to make the right decisions going forward.

In Dec. 2005, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) announced that he was introducing The Lobbying Transparency and Accountability Act of 2005. Section 105 of his bill called for "disclosure of grassroots activities by paid lobbyists." McCain urged the necessity of this provision, stating:

It requires greater disclosure of the activities of lobbyists, including for the first time, grassroots lobbying firms. … Lobbyists distorted the truth, not only with false messages, but also with fake messengers. I hope by having, for the first time, disclosure of grassroots activities and the financial interests behind misleading front groups, that such a fraud on Members and voters can be avoided.

Conservative non-profit groups sprung into action, assembling a coalition to "help bring down" the McCain provision. While grassroots groups on both sides of the political spectrum oppose the proposal, "social conservative leaders such as Dr. James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, who broadcasts a radio program to hundreds of thousands of evangelical Christians, have been its most vehement critics." McCain has been aggressively recruiting Dobson's support.

After months of pushing back against the influence-peddling operations of grassroots lobbyists, McCain has decided to give in. According to The Hill:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has told conservative activists that he will vote to strip a key provision on grassroots lobbying from the reform package he previously supported. … Jay Sekulow, chief counsel for the conservative American Center for Law and Justice, told The Hill that he had received confirmation from McCain's staff yesterday that he would oppose the disclosure proposal.

McCain has engaged in a pattern of flip-flopping on lobbying reform. Prior to his most recent reversal, ThinkProgress reported McCain has been soliciting contributions from K Street lobbying firms while talking tough against lobbyists, and he has been trying to scuttle the lobbying reform effort by adding a "poison pill" to the bill.