And here's a whole different perspective on it.
It appears that the conventional wisdom is that if the GOP holds on to either the House or Senate it will be by a marginal number of seats - say three or four. Now who is better off? The Democrats wityh a GOP house majority with a marginal number of seats? Or the GOP with a Speaker Nancy Pelosi trying to run the House with a bare majority? That could actually be interesting.
More opinion on that:
October 13, 2006
The Election, The Spin and The Expectations Game
Posted by JOHN MCINTYRE
One consequence of the Foley scandal is that election expectations have skyrocketed for Democrats. Last week in Roll Call Stuart Rothenberg wrote: "The national atmospherics don't merely favor Democrats; they set the stage for a blowout of cosmic proportions next month." This week the National Journal's Charlie Cook writes: "The fact that the situation has turned grim for the GOP can hardly be disputed......for Republicans to salvage their majorities in the House and Senate, quite a bit would have to change"
After Speaker Hastert's press conference one week ago David Shuster reported to Chris Mathews:
Every Republican that we spoke to today said this has almost guaranteed that the Republicans are not going to keep control of Congress.
If this is anything like Shuster's reporting on Karl Rove's imminent indictment in the Plamegate scandal, perhaps Republicans are a lock to hold onto Congress. But that is another story.
George Will got into the act as well:
If after the Foley episode -- a maraschino cherry atop the Democrats' delectable sundae of Republican miseries -- the Democrats cannot gain (the House), they should go into another line of work.
Howard Fineman added:
If the Democrats can't take the Hill now, they deserve to go the way of the Whigs.
So what happens if we wake up Wednesday morning after the election and the Democrats have failed to take either chamber on Capitol Hill? Given the expectations that have been hyped these last two weeks (and really the entire year), it is not going to be hard for Republicans and President Bush to claim an enormous victory.
The reality will not be quite that black and white, of course. In many ways the absolute worst thing for the GOP (not necessarily President Bush) would be to hold Democratic gains in the House to 13 seats and go into the next Congress with a totally unmanageable four-vote majority. It can credibly be argued they would be better off for so many different reasons to lose 17 seats and give Nancy Pelosi the unenviable chore of managing a four-seat majority.
Holding the Senate has higher strategic value for Republicans, even if it comes with Vice President Cheney voting to break a 50-50 tie. However, in the bigger historical picture losing 4 or 5 Senate seats is hard to spin as good news for the GOP given early expectations in this cycle. Democrats are defending six states they won with 51% or less in 2000, including Florida and Nebraska - both winnable races for the GOP if they had just fielded their best candidates. The same can be said of North Dakota, which in total gave the GOP seven states they should have been able to make very competitive this election. Instead Republicans are stuck hoping that Menendez's ethical lapses in New Jersey will keep them from being totally shut out.
Now to be fair elections don't occur in vacuums and the relatively poor job approval numbers for President Bush, voter frustration over the mess in Iraq along with the 6-yr midterm trends in favor of the out party are rather powerful forces working for the Democrats. And at the end of the day strategizing Senate cycles into the future is only of so much value because of the tendency of the real world to intrude. September 11, 2001 is a perfect example.
It can argued both ways which party benefits more from winning control of the Senate or the House in 2006, but what really can't be disputed is given the expectations and hype that have preceded this election is that a failure of the Democrats to capture at least one chamber in the next Congress will be seen as a partial victory for President Bush. And if that were to happen that would make him in effect 4 for 4 in elections since 2000, something his critics should ponder.
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