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WHO WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER?

 
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 10:54 am
Walter, when you post those HUGE articles out of some newspaper, is there any way to make them smaller so you don't stretch out the page?
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 11:12 am
I was just thinking... the fact that Thomas and Walter, two non-Americans, can have deeply involved discussions about intracacies of a US midterm elections is quite remarkable.

I was also thinking that I wouldn't be able to say the slightest intelligent thing about any German elections... in fact I am not even sure that they have elections there, do they?

Is such knowledge of foreign elections common in Germany, or are you two just incredibly informed...
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 12:59 pm
ebrown_p wrote:

...
If I thought my positions expressed on Able2Know would hurt the Democrats chances to take over one or both houses of Congress-- I would absolutely refrain from posting until after the election.
...
Advocating any political action right now that would hurt the Democratic message-- even if I would normally support it, is counterproductive.
...

Chuck Schumer, Democratic senator from New York, stated recently that Democrats will not describe what they are going to do if elected, because they do not want to give the Republicans a target.

After I heard that from Schumer, I began to re-ponder the above excerpts from your post. They appear to be similarly motivated.

My paraphrase of Schumer:
If it were known to American voters what the Democrats are going to do if elected, American voters would not elect them.

My paraphrase of excerpts from ebrown_p
If it were known to American voters what I think the Democrats should do if elected, American voters might not elect Democrats.

Well, let's test both of these assumptions.

Democrats have revealed the following by means of the implications of what they have advocated from time to time:

(1) Raise the income and capital gains tax rates on those people earning more than $100,000 per year.

(2) Remove our troops from the middle east and return to diplomatic negotiations to solve the terrorist problem.

(3) Fight terrorism domestically by both police and court actions designed to defend non-combatants from terrorist assaults.

(4) Increase government entitlement programs (i.e., transfer more wealth from those with more to those with less).

(5) Limit our consumption of oil to produce energy for our transportation, heating-cooling, and production systems.

(6) Appoint more federal judges who legislate the law in accord with the values of Democrats.

(7) Impeach President George Bush.


Hmmmm ... What do y'all think? Would this political platform appeal to a majority of American voters?
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 01:42 pm
Ican,

Your paraphrase of me is completely false. I never came close to saying that and I don't believe it is true.

You claims about what Democrats stand for are also wrong on many points, but there are a couple of points I don't disagree with, for example this one.

Quote:

[Democrats want to] Fight terrorism domestically by both police and court actions designed to defend non-combatants from terrorist assaults.


Are Republicans opposed to this???
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 02:00 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
Walter, when you post those HUGE articles out of some newspaper, is there any way to make them smaller so you don't stretch out the page?

I recommend MS Paint. On German Windows versions, you can find it under Start-->Programme-->Zubehör-->Paint. Open the graphic with it, resize it, save the resized graphic, post. Works like a charm for me.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 02:06 pm
I've several other programs as well (PIXresizer is good.)
However, that pic fits quite nicely on my monitor.
So I didn't see a reason to minimise it ...

Sorry.
0 Replies
 
Advocate
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 02:59 pm
Are people really going to vote, next month, for more tax cuts for the rich, more erosion of the Bill of Rights, more people without health-care insurance, etc.? If not, the Dems will take over this Fall.

Here is an interesting piece by Krugman.


^10/13/06: Will the Levee Break?

By PAUL KRUGMAN

The conventional wisdom says that the Democrats will take control of the
House of Representatives next month, but only by a small margin. I've
been looking at the numbers, however, and I believe this conventional
wisdom is almost all wrong.

Here's what's happening: a huge Democratic storm surge is heading
toward a high Republican levee. It's still possible that the surge won't
overtop the levee -- that is, the Democrats could fail by a small margin
to take control of Congress. But if the surge does go over the top, the
flooding will almost surely reach well inland -- that is, if the Democrats
win, they'll probably win big.

Let's talk about Congressional arithmetic.

Unless the Bush administration is keeping Osama bin Laden in a freezer
somewhere, a majority of Americans will vote Democratic this year. If
Congressional seats were allocated in proportion to popular votes, a
Democratic House would be a done deal. But they aren't, and the way
our electoral system works, combined with the way ethnic groups are
distributed, still gives the Republicans some hope of holding on.

The key point is that African-Americans, who overwhelmingly vote
Democratic, are highly concentrated in a few districts. This means that
in close elections many Democratic votes are, as political analysts say,
wasted -- they simply add to huge majorities in a small number of
districts, while the more widely spread Republican vote allows the
G.O.P. to win by narrower margins in a larger number of districts.

My back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that because of this
"geographic gerrymander," even a substantial turnaround in total
Congressional votes -- say, from the three-percentage-point Republican
lead in 2004 to a five-point Democratic lead this year -- would leave the
House narrowly in Republican hands. It looks as if the Democrats need as
much as a seven-point lead in the overall vote to take control.

No wonder, then, that until a few months ago many political analysts
argued that the Republicans would control the House for the foreseeable
future, because only a perfect political storm could overcome the G.O.P.
structural advantage.

But what's that howling sound? Every poll taken this month shows the
Democrats with a double-digit lead in the generic ballot question, in which
voters are asked which party they support in this election. The median
Democratic lead is 14 points.

And here's the thing: because there are many districts that the G.O.P.
carried by only moderately large margins in recent elections, a large
Democratic surge -- one only a bit bigger than that needed to take the
House at all -- would sweep away many Republicans holding seats
normally considered safe. If the actual vote is anything like what the
polls now suggest, we're talking about the Democrats holding a larger
majority in the House than the Republicans have held at any point since
their 1994 takeover.

So if the Democrats win, they'll probably have a substantial majority.
Whether they'll be able to keep that majority is another question. But
be prepared to wake up less than four weeks from now and learn that
everything you've been told about American politics -- liberalism is dead,
whoever controls the South controls Washington, only Republicans know
"the way to win" -- is wrong. (Are we seeing the birth of a new New Deal
coalition, in which the solid Northeast takes the place of the solid
South?)

The storm may yet weaken. The Iowa Electronic Markets, in which people
bet real money on election outcomes, still give Republicans a roughly 40
percent chance of keeping control of both houses of Congress. If that
happens,
will it mean that Republican control is permanent after all?

No. Bear in mind that the G.O.P. isn't in trouble because of a string of
bad luck. The problems that have caused Americans to turn on the party,
from the disaster in Iraq to the botched response to Katrina, from the
failed attempt to privatize Social Security to the sudden realization by
many voters that the self-proclaimed champions of moral values are
hypocrites, are deeply rooted in the whole nature of Republican governance.
So even if this surge doesn't overtop the levee, there will be another
surge soon.

But the best guess is that the permanent Republican majority will end in
a little over three weeks.
-------------------------------------------------------------
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 04:30 pm
ebrown_p wrote:
Ican,

Your paraphrase of me is completely false. I never came close to saying that and I don't believe it is true.

You claims about what Democrats stand for are also wrong on many points,

You present me quite a dilemma. First, it's self-evident that my paraphrases of what Schumer and you said are logically equivalent to what each of you said. Second, I know that what I alleged the Democratic political platform to be, is at least included in their actual platform. Third, based on your previous post on this subject, I don't know whether or not you know that you are here pseudologizing (i.e., falsifying or lying).

but there are a couple of points I don't disagree with, for example this one.

Quote:

[Democrats want to] Fight terrorism domestically by both police and court actions designed to defend non-combatants from terrorist assaults.


Are Republicans opposed to this???

Republicans generally believe that this kind of domestic defense against terrorism, while required, is inadequate. They know that the police are unable to adequately stop terrorism. Arresting terrorists after they kill non-combatants, is clearly an ineffective way of stopping terrorism, when the terrorists commit suicide in the act of killing non-combatants. So Republicans generally also believe exterminating terrorists where they come from--where they are allowed sanctuary--before they terrorize, is also required to adequately stop terrorism.
0 Replies
 
Advocate
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 04:44 pm
Ican, I guess you agree with Bush in the crazy notion that fighting in Iraq keeps us from fighting terrorists here.

There are not that many terrorists in Iraq -- 95% of the insurgents are Iraqis. Moreover, 16 intelligence agencies just stated that we are creating more terrorists by fighting in Iraq. Hopefully, this will be known when voting next month.
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 04:49 pm
Ican, I get the feeling you didn't do very well in math class.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 04:56 pm
ebrown_p wrote:
Ican, I get the feeling you didn't do very well in math class.


Now you see what I've been putting up with for so long in the Iraq thread.

I mean, stuff like this:

Quote:
First, it's self-evident that my paraphrases of what Schumer and you said are logically equivalent to what each of you said.


Well, then, Ican, if they are equivalent, why didn't you respond to what Ebrown actually wrote instead of substituting your own phrases? If they are logically equivalent, there is no reason to substitute your own phrases.

The truth is, you know that what you wrote is not logically equivalent to what was said, but rather you decided to present it in a fashion more conducive to your argument and worldview.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 05:09 pm
It's not clear to me if Ican knows his logic is flawed or not.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 05:29 pm
Advocate wrote:
Are people really going to vote, next month, for more tax cuts for the rich, more erosion of the Bill of Rights, more people without health-care insurance, etc.? If not, the Dems will take over this Fall.
...

Everyone who paid taxes before the tax cut received a tax cut. That is a fact, the pseudological (i.e., falsifying or lying) news media and many Democrats not withstanding.

What is the moral and/or legal justification for say Bill Gates or Michael Dell paying 35% tax on each of their dollars of income, while I pay only 15%?

I think there is no moral or legal justification for their dollars of income being discriminated against. I think we all who receive dollars of income ought to pay the same tax rate.

Moral Argument
Quote:
The Declaration of Independence
(Adopted in Congress 4 July 1776)
...
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are [equally] endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
...


Legal Argument
Quote:
The Constitution of the United States of America
Effective as of March 4, 1789
...
Article I
...
Section 8. The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States; but all duties, imposts and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
...
Article IV
...
Section 2. The citizens of each state shall be entitled to all privileges and immunities of citizens in the several states.
...
Article VI
...
This Constitution, and the laws of the United States which shall be made in pursuance thereof; and all treaties made, or which shall be made, under the authority of the United States, shall be the supreme law of the land; and the judges in every state shall be bound thereby, anything in the Constitution or laws of any State to the contrary notwithstanding.
...

The Bill of Rights (1791)
...
Amendment V
No person shall be ... deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.
...
Amendments XI-XXVII
To the US Constitution
...
Amendment XVI (1913)
The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several states, and without regard to any census of enumeration.

...

Please note that the 16th Amendment does not amend these parts of the Constitution:
"Article I
Section 8. ... all duties, imposts and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

Article IV
Section 2. The citizens of each state shall be entitled to all privileges and immunities of citizens in the several states.

Article VI
This Constitution, and the laws of the United States which shall be made in pursuance thereof; and all treaties made, or which shall be made, under the authority of the United States, shall be the supreme law of the land ... anything in the Constitution or laws of any State to the contrary notwithstanding."


Also, please note that the 16th Amendment does not amend this part of the 5th Amendment:
"Amendment V
No person shall be ... deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law;"

Yes, I know the federal courts have legislated otherwise. But it is is not lawful for federal or state courts to legislate:
Quote:
Article I
Section 1. All legislative powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives.


Article II
Section 1. The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.


Article III
Section 1. The judicial power of the United States, shall be vested in one Supreme Court, and in such inferior courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish.

Please note Article I Section 1 says: "All legislative powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States"
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 06:29 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
ebrown_p wrote:
Ican, I get the feeling you didn't do very well in math class.


A more rational (and more believable) response from ebrown_p would have been: ican, you misinterpreted my statements. What I meant was ...


Now you see what I've been putting up with for so long in the Iraq thread.

I mean, stuff like this:

Quote:
First, it's self-evident that my paraphrases of what Schumer and you said are logically equivalent to what each of you said.


ebrown_p wrote:
Quote:
If I thought my positions expressed on Able2Know would hurt the Democrats chances to take over one or both houses of Congress-- I would absolutely refrain from posting until after the election.
...
Advocating any political action right now that would hurt the Democratic message-- even if I would normally support it, is counterproductive.
...

Chuck Schumer said:
Quote:
Democrats will not describe what they are going to do if elected, because they do not want to give the Republicans a target.


My interpretation of ebrown_p's and Schumer's statements
ican wrote:
My paraphrase of excerpts from ebrown_p:
If it were known to American voters what I think the Democrats should do if elected, American voters might not elect Democrats.

My paraphrase of Schumer:
If it were known to American voters what the Democrats are going to do if elected, American voters would not elect them.


Well, then, Ican, if they are equivalent, why didn't you respond to what Ebrown actually wrote instead of substituting your own phrases? If they are logically equivalent, there is no reason to substitute your own phrases.

To make crystal clear my interpretation of what was said and written.

The truth is, you know that what you wrote is not logically equivalent to what was said, but rather you decided to present it in a fashion more conducive to your argument and worldview.

No, the truth is I don't know that. Please show me what you think is the correct interpretation of those statements.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 06:59 pm
Quote:

No, the truth is I don't know that. Please show me what you think is the correct interpretation of those statements.


Not what you said, that's for sure. Dems aren't afraid that people won't vote for them if they talk about what they want to do; they just realize that it is a far more effective strategy to keep their mouths shut and let the voters decide whether or not to vote for Republicans.

The constant criticism you hear from Republicans is 'Dems don't have plans of their own, or ideas,' and that's plain lying. What they do have is plans and ideas that Republicans don't agree with, such as leaving Iraq and raising taxes on the rich. But what do you think is better, being on the defensive, or the offensive? The dems think being on the offensive is better when it comes to this election, and there is every indication that the plan is working.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 07:29 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Quote:

No, the truth is I don't know that. Please show me what you think is the correct interpretation of those statements.


Not what you said, that's for sure. Dems aren't afraid that people won't vote for them if they talk about what they want to do; they just realize that it is a far more effective strategy to keep their mouths shut and let the voters decide whether or not to vote for Republicans.
Shocked Confused

"Dems aren't afraid that people won't vote for them if they talk about what they want to do; they just realize that it is a far more effective strategy to keep their mouths shut..." and keep from the voters what, they intend to do? Rolling Eyes

I think the Dems are right. I think that if the voters knew what the Dems are going to do, the voters would not vote for Dems. I think the Dems know that and that's why they are afraid to tell the voters what they are going to do.


The constant criticism you hear from Republicans is 'Dems don't have plans of their own, or ideas,' and that's plain lying. What they do have is plans and ideas that Republicans don't agree with, such as leaving Iraq and raising taxes on the rich. But what do you think is better, being on the defensive, or the offensive? The dems think being on the offensive is better when it comes to this election, and there is every indication that the plan is working.

I think the Dems think being offensive--being slanderous and libelous about Republicans--will enable them to win. For that reason alone, I wouldn't trust the Dems as far as I can throw the state capital building in the city of Austin Texas.

Cycloptichorn

If the Republicans were to hold on to their majorities in the Congress, the Dems would go nuts, accusing the Republicans of the voter fraud they will themselves have perpetrated.

<sigh> Damn, maybe this is right after all.

circa 1778:

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship."
0 Replies
 
Advocate
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 07:39 pm
Ican, the constitution doesn't mention a uniform income tax. The IT has always been based on ability to pay -- that is what graduated rates do. Moreover, the rich have wildly disparate income and wealth, and should be soaked.

Perhaps you would prefer that the USA be more like Brazil and Mexico, where a small number of families control everything, and vast majority of people are essentially serfs. BTW, we already have a plutocracy, which is getting much worse under Bush.

Bush's tax-cut dollars went overwhelmingly to the rich. Paris Hilton and Teresa Heinz are very appreciative.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 07:57 pm
For any supporter of the current crop of republicans to castigate Dems for spending is ludicrous. Just plain ludicrous.

You need to realize that the problems Republicans are facing right now aren't from the Democrats and they aren't from slanders.

They're from Iraq.
They are from the Department of Justice.
They are from the Fiscal Conservatives of America.
They are from the Social Conservatives of America.

Have you seen press conferences being called by Liberals and Democrats these days? Round after round of attacks denouncing the Republicans, lying about them, slandering them? No, sir, you have not. What you have seen is Republicans get in trouble with the law (abramoff, Bob Ney, Tom DeLay, Curt Wheldon, Burns, WH officials, Norquist, Reed, Governors, Libby; how many have to be named?

You believe that Liberals run the US justice dept?

You don't think that this has any impact on votes at all, this level of corruption - and not even alledged corruption, in many cases, but convicted corruption?

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 09:34 pm
Advocate wrote:
Ican, the constitution doesn't mention a uniform income tax.

Nor does it mention a non-uniform income tax. But it does mention: "The citizens of each state shall be entitled to all privileges and immunities of citizens in the several states." I think that means under the laws of our country, the legal privileges and the legal immunities of each citizen are equal. So if I'm privileged to not pay more only 15% of my income on income taxes and am immune from paying more than 15%, then every other citizen should be equally privileged and immune.

The IT has always been based on ability to pay -- that is what graduated rates do.

No it hasn't always been based on the ability to pay. It has always been based on what will net politicians the most votes at a given time. Initially, the income tax only taxed a tiny minority of citizens. That enabled politicians to persuade most voters that they were all going to remain immune to the income tax. Once sucked in, the majority of the voters started paying income tax to finance wealth transfers from those who had the fewest votes to those who had the most votes.

Moreover, the rich have wildly disparate income and wealth, and should be soaked.

Why should the rich be soaked? They provide the economic opportunities to support ourselves that the rest of us depend on. Furthermore, it's the rich who finance the developments of that which makes all our lives easier than they would otherwise be. Soak the rich and we soak ourselves. Also, most of the rich started out poor. So while getting rich they enabled many others to do likewise.

Perhaps you would prefer that the USA be more like Brazil and Mexico, where a small number of families control everything, and vast majority of people are essentially serfs. BTW, we already have a plutocracy, which is getting much worse under Bush.

In Mexico, the rich continue to stifle others from improving their economic status by preventing others from competing with them. They do this by controlling who invests what, when and where. We don't do that in the USA. That's one of the reasons why we have grown faster than the other nations of the world whose governments control who invests what, when and where. Communist nations control investment like that and as a result are among the poorest nations. Only their elites prosper.

Bush's tax-cut dollars went overwhelmingly to the rich. Paris Hilton and Teresa Heinz are very appreciative.

In total dollars, of course they did, since they paid way more dollars than the rest of us. But Less than 30% of tax payers currently pay 95% of the income taxes. Less than 5% currently pay 50% of the income taxes. If everyone paid the same %, say 10%, of their gross income to income taxes, those whose annual gross income was $1 billion, $1 million, or $1 thousand would pay annually, respectively, $100 million, $100 thousand, or $100. What's unfair about that?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 13 Oct, 2006 10:04 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
For any supporter of the current crop of republicans to castigate Dems for spending is ludicrous. Just plain ludicrous.

We agree. It is ludicrous.

You need to realize that the problems Republicans are facing right now aren't from the Democrats and they aren't from slanders.

They're from Iraq.
They are from the Department of Justice.
They are from the Fiscal Conservatives of America.
They are from the Social Conservatives of America.

We agree with one exception. The Democrats, because of their continual chant that we cannot win in Iraq, give "comfort" to our enemies in Iraq. That leads our enemies to believe that we Americans will eventually quit and let them win. That comfort the Democrat's give our enemies in Iraq makes winning in Iraq even more difficult than it might otherwise be.

Have you seen press conferences being called by Liberals and Democrats these days? Round after round of attacks denouncing the Republicans, lying about them, slandering them? No, sir, you have not. What you have seen is Republicans get in trouble with the law (abramoff, Bob Ney, Tom DeLay, Curt Wheldon, Burns, WH officials, Norquist, Reed, Governors, Libby; how many have to be named?

Too much Republican behavior is inexcusable. Even more Democrat behavior is inexcusable (e.g., their repeated slandering and libeling of all Republicans for what some have done, while ignoring all of what some Democrats have done or not done).

By the way, Abramoff bought both Republicans and Democrats. Libby did not out Plame as trumped up by the Dems. Nor did anyone else out Plame, since she hadn't been a covert agent for more than 5 years when it was publicised she was a CIA employee. What other WH official are you accusing of what?


You believe that Liberals run the US justice dept?

Irrelevant!

You don't think that this has any impact on votes at all, this level of corruption - and not even alledged corruption, in many cases, but convicted corruption?

Of course, true, alleged and falsely alleged corruption has impact on votes--negative impact. Of course, failure to disclose what will be done if elected has negative impact on votes. Of course, repeated slanders and libels have negative impacts on votes. More than anything else, however, the Democrats are acting like psychotics in competition with the Republicans acting like neurotics. We shall soon learn which appear more dangerous to the voter.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
 

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