1
   

Global Warming vs. Terrorism

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 10:12 am
I really like informations - otherwise I hadn't subscribed to so many newspapers and magazines.

But I'm more then cautious with anonymous sites. Especially, when even the links on it lead to other anonymous sites.

It is most certain that my behaviour has to do with the academical work I did long time ago, namely reading and marking BA and MA thesises.

Sorry, of course you can believe whatever you like and what suits you and your argumentation best.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:03 am
okie wrote:


Who is threatening anyone, plainoldme? What is with you? By the way, you may wish to check your last sentence. I am not absolutely sure, but I do not judge it to be grammatically correct. I think there are too many commas. Also, your second sentence contains a redundancy, plus the "yours" should read without the "s."


Of course, you are not absolutely sure. You're wrong. The number of commas is correct. There is no redundancy in the second sentence, although the final sentence has a missing word, but, that is due to my typing speed. Finally, read the sentence for meaning and you will discover that "yours" is correct.

When I was working on my graduate degree in English in Detroit, while employed first as an English teacher and later as a journalist, professors read my papers to classes as examples of the sort work expected from graduate students. While studying at Harvard, a professor who holds an endowed chair in Classics asked me to make myself available to others as a writing coach.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:08 am
BernardR wrote:


Her ignorance concerning writing, English Grammar, and Literature generally is evident in her idiotic appraisal of the race carder, Toni Morrison's garbage as being superior to the greatest writer in all of English Literature....Shakespeare.
'

Furthermore, it is evident that no one ever taught her that she must use citations which refer to scientific studies when she writes on a topic like Global Warming. She cannot merely say-"John Jones said---" without giving a link in which it can be checked.


First of all, I never compared Shakespeare to Morrison. This man can not quote anyone correctly.

Second, who in creation ever said that one must supply "a link," which you will ignore? When a person reads as little as you do, supplying links is easy. The three articles you've read are always at your finger tips.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:11 am
Paaskynen -- I agree with you that technology will not help us survive global warming.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:12 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
I really like informations - otherwise I hadn't subscribed to so many newspapers and magazines.

But I'm more then cautious with anonymous sites. Especially, when even the links on it lead to other anonymous sites.

It is most certain that my behaviour has to do with the academical work I did long time ago, namely reading and marking BA and MA thesises.

Sorry, of course you can believe whatever you like and what suits you and your argumentation best.


Then cite the parallel information you believe to be correct that refutes mine, Walter, otherwise you contribute nothing.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:13 am
parados -- Gunga has to be one of the dimmest posters here.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:27 am
plainoldme wrote:
okie wrote:


Who is threatening anyone, plainoldme? What is with you? By the way, you may wish to check your last sentence. I am not absolutely sure, but I do not judge it to be grammatically correct. I think there are too many commas. Also, your second sentence contains a redundancy, plus the "yours" should read without the "s."


Of course, you are not absolutely sure. You're wrong. The number of commas is correct. There is no redundancy in the second sentence, although the final sentence has a missing word, but, that is due to my typing speed. Finally, read the sentence for meaning and you will discover that "yours" is correct.

When I was working on my graduate degree in English in Detroit, while employed first as an English teacher and later as a journalist, professors read my papers to classes as examples of the sort work expected from graduate students. While studying at Harvard, a professor who holds an endowed chair in Classics asked me to make myself available to others as a writing coach.


Again, plainoldme, here is your quote:
Quote:
Please, if you think in any way that you are threatening or correcting me, you are sadly mistaken. I have listened patiently to you and yours attempt to insult me and it is laughable. Try to point out errors, but, is beyond your ability.

To correct your sentence and remove a redundancy to make it read more correctly, plainoldme, it should read:
"Please, if you think in any way that you are threatening or correcting me, you are sadly mistaken. I have listened patiently to your attempts to insult me and it is laughable. Try to point out errors, but it is beyond your ability."

And I repeat, I take umbrage at your word, "threatening," which is not an appropriate usage here, as making threats is usually associated with things a bit more serious than promising to point out your writing errors. In other words, if you wish to belittle my writing here, I can return the favor, and I would think an English teacher, as you apparently claim you are, could do better. I only chose a couple of your sentences for grading you, and if you wish to carry this on, I could start checking all of your posts for writing errors. By the way your last post contains errors, but I won't bother to waste time correcting them now.
0 Replies
 
xingu
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:33 am
Quote:
Global Warming: An Amazing Graph, and Muzzling Science at NASA
From: Misc. Politics TableBy toppa | bio

UPDATE: the Editor of Technology Review contacted me (apparently they're watching their incoming links), saying that there was enough demand for the "scary chart" that they've now posted it to their site as a PDF (it's much nicer than my scan).

Technology Review's laterst issue contains an excellent set of articles on global warming. Unfortunately, the online version is lacking "the scariest graph in climate science, a 420,000-year record of carbon dioxide and temperature, inferred from a 3.6-kilometer ice core recovered at Russia's Vostok station in Antarctica." It's the clearest illustration I've ever seen of the relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels, temperature, and sea level. While the article says that "atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased 32 percent since 1850," you don't get a gut-level feel for what that means until you see the CO2 level going way off the top of the chart at the end of the graph. Here's the key portion of the inset text that accompanies the graph:

Quote:
...Geological records show that in the past 400,000 years, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, average Earth temperature, and sea levels have risen and fallen roughly in tandem, in 100,000-year cycles paced by slight oscillations in Earth's orbit. These oscillations affect the distribution of sunlight, hardly affecting the total amount reaching Earth; yet, scientists believe, this has been enough to set in motion chains of events that raise and lower temperatures, launch and end ice ages, and trigger vast changes in sea level.

What's coming next? Carbon dioxide -- the number one greenhouse gas -- has much more power to affect Earth's temperature than the orbital changes do. And in just the past 150 years, humankind has boosted carbon dioxide concentrations by 32 percent. NASA planetary scientist Jim Hansen says that if we continue to increase greenhouse-gas emissions, temperatures will rise between 2 and 3 ÂșC this century, making Earth as warm as it was three million years ago, when seas were between 15 and 35 meters higher than they are today...

The article that goes with the graph - The Messenger - is highly worth reading. It covers the career of leading climatologist Jim Hansen, and among other things, describes the censorship of his work by the Bush Administration:

Quote:
According to NASA memorandums provided by Hansen, senior political appointees at NASA headquarters in Washington quickly called career public-affairs officers at the agency and directed them to give headquarters advance notice of Hansen's speaking schedule, his "data releases," and his attendance at scientific meetings. The career officers also understood from the phone calls that the posting of all content on the GISS website, including scientific data sets, would now require headquarters approval; that no NASA employees or contractors could grant media interviews without approval; and that public-affairs officers had the right to stand in for scientists in all interviews. Hansen emphasizes that the political appointees made sure to leave no paper trail...He says he's been muzzled before -- during the Reagan and first Bush administrations -- but that in more than three decades as a government employee, he has seen nothing to equal the recent clampdown.


What makes Hansen's work compelling is that he uses multiple sources to check the accuracy of his models. You'll need to read the article for a detailed explanation, but the bottom line is this:

Quote:
Global-warming deniers like to complain that scientists base their predictions on faulty computer models. But Hansen's calculations show that we don't need a computer to know how temperature will respond to a given change in the greenhouse -- or a change in dustiness, or forest cover, or the amount of ice on the Arctic Ocean. Solid geological field data give us everything we need -- and provide a check for computer models. And lend credibility to Hansen's predictions.
SOURCE
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:40 am
okie wrote:

Then cite the parallel information you believe to be correct that refutes mine, Walter, otherwise you contribute nothing.


You say/quote something without original source and I should refute it?

You'd never done any halfways serious academic work, right?
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:40 am
Okie -- Your correction was incorrect. Did your wife do it for you?
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:44 am
okie wrote:
I have no clue who Monte Hieb and Harrison Hieb are. I do not know what their background is in the field of climate science.


I think that would be somehow important, though. I'll later explain why.

okie wrote:
Why does it link to whole bunch of fossil fuel info sites? I don't know, perhaps they may think fossil fuel people are credible. You do not?


No, I don't think so. The fossil fuel people might be credible when the topic would be fossil fuel exploitation. I would trust the statements of the fossil fuel people over, say, an Hollywood actor any time, provided the topic was fossil fuel exploitation. But the topic is global warming. What do you think, who is more credible when it comes to the negative effects of smoking: your doctor or the tobacco industry?


okie wrote:
Why are his/their arguments the most valid? I did not say they were, Walter.


Good. If their arguments or not valid, why did you post the link, though?


okie wrote:
I simply liked the site because it provides some nice graphs, pie charts, and statistics.


Bloody f*cking hell, okie, that must be the most stupid argument I've ever heard! Really, you're smarter than that! Come on! You like the site because it has some nice graphs???

Here, let me start this program.... then I'm gonna enter some numbers, click on "draw graph", save it... Now, let me upload it to the internet and post it here:

http://img66.imageshack.us/img66/7343/greenhouseeffectwu9.gif

Isn't this a nice graph? Good. Glad you like it. So we have established that Global Warming is largely due to apples, oranges and bananas! Gosh!


okie wrote:
I think the statistics are in the ballpark of what I've seen before, so I thought they were nicely presented and easily understood on this site.


You know, the problem is that they can be nicely presented and easily understood, but at the same time completely wrong. Believe me, I could build a website like the one you linked to in less than a day. I could just make up the numbers, and post some very, very nice graphs and statistics. What would that show? Nothing.

Darn, okie, don't you think we should, maybe, look at the credentials of the guys who post stuff online? Monte Hieb and Harrison Hieb? Even you have no idea who these guys are!

Hey, there's nothing wrong at looking at "both sides of the argument." But maybe we should check who's talking first. You say Walter is attacking the messenger instead of looking at the numbers these guys provide.

Lovely. That's exactly the argument the 9/11 conspiracy guys use! Whenever it's pointed out, even with evidence provided, that, hey, this guy is an unemployed burger flipper who set up this website from his garage, the 9/11 nutjobs go "That's unfair! You're attacking the messenger!! Look at what he is presenting, and then argue against that instead of smearing the messenger!!"

Not productive. By the way, that's why I wouldn't go to get information from dedicatedly "pro-global-warming-sites" either.

What I'm saying is: try to get some good information. Good information, from people or organizations or institutions with good credentials. Then draw your conclusions from that data, and form your opinion.

http://www.vbaexpress.com/forum/images/smilies/2cents.gif
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 11:56 am
okie,

Perhaps you should use your head. Without any greenhouse effect the temperature of the earth would be that of the moon. 230 degrees F in the sun -290 in the shade. Now get out your calculator.

The green house effect gives us 290 plus degrees. Of that greenhouse effect .28% of it is from man made origins. Now a simple exercise. Take .0028 times 290 degrees. Suprise - you get .8 degrees. of warming caused by man's activity so far. .8 degrees Fahrenheit. That comes pretty close to the .6 degrees Celsius warming we have seen since your source appears to be using 2000 figures.

I have not been able to confirm your sources claim for what is man made of CO2. There is no such table in the US Dept of Energy website. I suspect it only includes fossil fuels CO2 and doesn't include all the other human activities so it is ignoring the real contributions.


I did find this...
Quote:
Careful accounting of the amount of fossil fuel that has been extracted and combusted, and how much land clearing has occurred, shows that we have produced far more CO2 than now remains in the atmosphere. The roughly 500 billion metric tons of carbon we have produced is enough to have raised the atmospheric concentration of CO2 to nearly 500 ppm.


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=87

So, lets start with a false assumption then do some math. Looks like that is what this person did. Then you jumped on his false assumptions and did some more math. Now compare the Kyoto proposal to the way CO2 was figured in your article. Kyoto is not restricted to fossil fuels alone. Your figures are off because you are comparing apples to oranges.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 12:04 pm
parados wrote:
Your figures are off because you are comparing apples to oranges.


But oe posted his impressive graphics later Shocked



:wink:
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 12:15 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
But oe posted his impressive graphics later Shocked


Always glad to help. Just ask me if you need some facts, and I'll make them u... I mean, I'll find a credible source and post the information here!

Very Happy
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 12:23 pm
old europe wrote:

okie wrote:
I simply liked the site because it provides some nice graphs, pie charts, and statistics.


Bloody f*cking hell, okie, that must be the most stupid argument I've ever heard! Really, you're smarter than that! Come on! You like the site because it has some nice graphs???


And OE you might recall I also said the numbers were in the ballpark of what I had seen before. Come on guys, post your numbers if you don't like these instead of making fun of the source.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 12:37 pm
parados wrote:
okie,

Perhaps you should use your head. Without any greenhouse effect the temperature of the earth would be that of the moon. 230 degrees F in the sun -290 in the shade. Now get out your calculator.

The green house effect gives us 290 plus degrees. Of that greenhouse effect .28% of it is from man made origins. Now a simple exercise. Take .0028 times 290 degrees. Suprise - you get .8 degrees. of warming caused by man's activity so far. .8 degrees Fahrenheit. That comes pretty close to the .6 degrees Celsius warming we have seen since your source appears to be using 2000 figures.

I have not been able to confirm your sources claim for what is man made of CO2. There is no such table in the US Dept of Energy website. I suspect it only includes fossil fuels CO2 and doesn't include all the other human activities so it is ignoring the real contributions.


I did find this...
Quote:
Careful accounting of the amount of fossil fuel that has been extracted and combusted, and how much land clearing has occurred, shows that we have produced far more CO2 than now remains in the atmosphere. The roughly 500 billion metric tons of carbon we have produced is enough to have raised the atmospheric concentration of CO2 to nearly 500 ppm.


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=87

So, lets start with a false assumption then do some math. Looks like that is what this person did. Then you jumped on his false assumptions and did some more math. Now compare the Kyoto proposal to the way CO2 was figured in your article. Kyoto is not restricted to fossil fuels alone. Your figures are off because you are comparing apples to oranges.


If it involves false assumptions, then provide evidence to show it. Anyway, glad you are at least applying some of your own thinking into this. Yes, land use may have something to do with man caused CO2 aside from fossil fuels. So do we eliminate agriculture if that is part of the problem, Parados? And other land uses that cause a problem? Hey, I am open to more figures if you can come up with some. I am glad to stimulate the discussion here and get people to examine the global warmers claims instead of swallowing them hook, line, and sinker.

By the way, parados, I noticed you never rebutted my final post concerning the example of tree huggers causing ridiculous scenarios of hauling garbage a hundred miles, causing a gross waste of energy, creating more pollution, wearing out highways, and killing at least one driver in the process. I am sure if I made it my business to research this subject, I could come up with alot more than that particular example that I cited.

I think I am at least making people re-examine things here, even if you don't admit it. I have an open mind. If I see evidence to clinch the global warmers theories, I can admit it, but so far pretty far fetched the way I see it.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 12:39 pm
okie wrote:
And OE you might recall I also said the numbers were in the ballpark of what I had seen before. Come on guys, post your numbers if you don't like these instead of making fun of the source.


Then post what you have seen before! Give a link to a good source!

Let's quickly come up with a scenario to illustrate what you are saying here. Let's assume we were discussing oil drilling instead of global warming. Now I would point you to a website, set up by a Hollywood actor, that stated that oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico actually causes earthquakes in California and should be stopped immediately.

What would you do? Would you

- tell us "Hey, you guys must be kidding me! Whaddya think an actor knows about oil drilling?"

- go on the internet and try to find good sources and then come back and explain everything about oil drilling, plate tectonics, the lithosphere and the asthenosphere, volcanic activity, mountain-building, oceanic trench formation and earthquakes, and counter every statement made by the guy with scientific data?
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 12:51 pm
If the hollywood actor's site actually had facts and figures to support the premise, then those facts and figures could be examined for their accuracy. Simply post more credible facts and figures to dispute his.

So OE, do the research and come up with information that you believe more credible. How much CO2 is produced naturally vs man, and how much greenhouse gas is produced naturally vs man, when you include water vapor. I do not believe my site that I posted is grossly off. The figures will vary from site to site, but importantly, I believe the information I posted are probably in the ballpark. If you firmly believe they aren't, then show yours. As Parados rightly pointed out, the figures could vary if you include land use influences over and above fossil fuels, but nevertheless I think the order of magnitude is still going to be roughly the same.
0 Replies
 
username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 01:25 pm
Since the Hiebs, whoever they are, say they're using DOE statistics, I suggest you go to the DOE website and look at the facts; look for example at their pretty graph, which shows that essentially all the change in CO2 concentration is due to anthropogenic activity.

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggcebra/chapter1.html

consider again the studies of ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica, which are capable of resolving CO2 concentration in the atmosphere on an at-the-very-least decadal scale. During the last six glacials and interglacials CO2 has ranged from about 180ppm to 300ppm (during ice ages about 180; during interglacials--like now--usually about 280), which is a good argument for equilibrium processes at work. Except for about the last century and a half, human contribution of CO2 was minimal. With the industrial revolution that changed. In the last century, CO2 has gone from 280 ppm to about 380 ppm. There are no natural sources that anyone can point to that have suddenly started operating after not operating for the last 600,000 years that could account for that. However human use of fossil fuels for the most part, accounts for that rise (with about 40% sequestered in the ocean and carbon sinks on land--which, incidentally, is an observed statistic that coincides closely with what GCMs had predicted).

As I think it was parados pointed out, most of the greenhouse effect, which has been operating ever since there's been an atmosphere with methane, CO2, or water vapor in it, goes to keeping the planet from being an iceball. But if we add more greenhouse gases to it, it's gonna heat up. Simple physics. Arrhenius discovered that back in the 1890s.
0 Replies
 
username
 
  1  
Reply Tue 22 Aug, 2006 01:26 pm
ok, that link doesn't work. I thought I copied it exactly. apparently not.
0 Replies
 
 

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