Iran Air Strikes Growing in Probability

Among those who were demoted was Jack Straw, his foreign secretary, who became leader of the House of Commons.

Mr. Straw had become a close associate of Condoleezza Rice, the United States secretary of state.

Reuters news agency reported that Ms. Rice telephoned Mr. Straw on Friday. Mr. Blair has not explained why he removed Mr. Straw as foreign secretary. But newspapers on Saturday ascribed Mr. Straw's dismissal to factors including Mr. Blair's dislike of the highly publicized friendship between Mr. Straw and Ms. Rice, Mr. Straw's rejection of a possible military solution in the Iran nuclear crisis and Mr. Blair's suspicion that Mr. Straw was positioning himself to win favor with Mr. Brown. Mr. Straw has described the likelihood of military action against Iran as "inconceivable," while Mr. Blair, like the Bush administration, has been more circumspect about keeping options open to pressure Iran.

The new foreign minister, Margaret Beckett, a longtime Labor politician who was environment minister, will be plunged into her new job on Monday as she enters negotiations on Iran at the United Nations.

In the past, particularly in the Iraq war, Mr. Blair has often taken the lead in running Britain's foreign policy, and Mr. Straw's exit may be designed to give the prime minister more leeway in the Iran crisis.

blatham wrote:

Setanta wrote:

You analysis suffers from a lack of understanding of the Shrub's future, Mr. Mountie. After the mid-terms, he may well decide he'll attack Iran, and have no further electoral worries, since he'll be a lame duck, and the consequences for the Republican Party will be meaningless for him.

Set

I understand the lame-duck dynamic, but consider that it applies less for Bush than it might in almost any other circumstance and with almost any other Presidency. As Woodward's book noted, decisions got made after Bush visited Cheney's office. There are many reasons to consider this President more of a figurehead than probably anyone else in US history. I consider it quite possible, for example, that he was fed the idea that he is "the decider".

Though he may consider that anything which happens after his Presidency is over to of little concern (I don't think that is so), there are too many powerful and influential constituencies propping up his administration (and benefiting from it) which desire to maintain their grasp on power. I consider those constituencies determinative here.

First, i would note that King-makers surrender the ultimate power having made their King, for whatever their intent. Second, i would point out that after the mid-term elections, neither the Shrub nor any member of his administration any longer needs to cater to those constituencies, the more so as it is so unlikely that any member of this administration--Cheney least of all--has any prospect of attempting to secure the Republican nomination. On that basis, i consider this rogue administration to be far more dangerous as a lame duck than any other i've seen in my lifetime.

TEHRAN, Iran - The Iranian parliament threatened Sunday to force the government to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty if the United States continues pressuring Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment.

In a letter to U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan read on state-run radio, the lawmakers said they would consider forcing the withdrawal if "the U.N. Secretary General and other members of the U.N. Security Council fail in their crucial responsibility to resolve differences peacefully."

The legislators said they would have no choice but to "review Article 10 of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty." The article allows signatories to pull out of the treaty if they decide that extraordinary events have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. A withdrawing nation must give fellow treaty signers and the U.N. three months notice and detail the events that have forced the decision to pullout of the agreement.

North Korea withdrew from the treaty in 2003 on that basis.

There's another piece in the Guardian this morning suggesting that Straw may have been removed at the wishes of the Bush administration. For the reasons given earlier, I would guess that is not accurate.

blatham wrote:

There's another piece in the Guardian this morning suggesting that Straw may have been removed at the wishes of the Bush administration. For the reasons given earlier, I would guess that is not accurate.

I'll read The Observer later on. (Sunday paper from the Guardian stable) I'm running late today.

I think it's significant that last month Straw said a strike on Iran was unthinkable, and this month he's removed from his post.

The exact word he used was "inconceivable" i believe. He also said that the idea of the United States using tactical nuclear weapons against hardened Iranian nuclear facilities was "nuts".

I yhink Israel is the wild card in this entire dance. I dont think that Israel will allow continued enrichment of Uranium by Iran. .

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's leader has written to President Bush proposing "new solutions" to their differences in the first letter from an Iranian head of state to an American president in 27 years, a government spokesman said Monday.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki delivered the letter to the Swiss ambassador on Monday, ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told The Associated Press. The Swiss Embassy in Tehran houses a U.S. interests section.

In the letter, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proposes "new solutions for getting out of international problems and the current fragile situation of the world," spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham told a news conference.

You've gotta give Blair credit though. He is absolutely superb at fielding even the most difficult questions with aplomb.