Foxfyre--I think your posts are needed more than ever. People must become aware of the fact that we may be headed into Armageddon with relation to illegals. Note:
Culture, Society, & ReligionFeatured ArticlesForeign AffairsPolitics, Economics, & Public PolicySententiaNeoConstantJournal of Politics and Foreign Affairs
SubscribeSubscribe by emailAboutRegular ColumnistsContactWriters WantedTagsindiepunditMexico dangerously close to failing as state. What does America do?
By Jason Corley on January 17th, 2009
Could North America become militarized in the next decade? Has the War on Drugs become more important than the War on Terror?
A report released earlier this week by the Joint Operations Environment (JOE: go here for report) warned that Mexico is in danger of becoming a failed state. The country’s government and infrastructure has nearly succumbed to its vicious and bloody drug war. It is common place in Mexico for police officers to bribed, tortured and murdered and even more alarming, especially near the United States southern border. In the past year alone more people have died from drug related criminal activity in Mexico than American casualties suffered in Iraq. The losses in Mexico add up to 5,300 people in the past year.
So bad are the social and political affairs in Mexico the JOE report said that Mexico was just as close to collapsing as Pakistan.
Often time drug gangs will mete out violence in open public killing rival gangs, civilian authorities and even innocent bystanders. The witnesses are usually too scared to talk or are also murdered before anything can be said. With illegal immigration just below a boil in America, many government officials and politicians are watching this closely.
The outgoing secretary for Homeland Security Michael Chertoff fears that it may be just a matter of time before Mexican drug war spills across the border. It is a known fact that Mexico exports gangs, drugs, and criminals into U.S. cities. It is only a matter of time before these wars spread here to settle old scores, expand operations in a more market friendly environment, or leave Mexico altogether. He proposed the idea that the federal government will have to entertain a possible “surge” of military and police personnel to the border as a serious possibility.
The plans would call for aircraft, armored vehicles and special operation teams to deploy to trouble spots along the border, and perhaps into Mexico if needed. However, it isn’t likely that military forces would be used if civilian agencies like the Border Patrol and local law enforcement were unable to control the violence, or until Mexico was unable to function and ensuing anarchy emerged.
The drug feud has taken its toll on Mexico’s economic and social stability. Because corruption is an institution itself in the the Mexican government, most of the gangs have filled the vacuums left open by an inefficient and corrupt government and the price for this is a staggering loss of lives and economic activity. If matters only get worse or a complete collapse of the government is imminent, the U.S. can expect a humanitarian disaster and a deluge of Mexican immigrants seeking security across the border.
Joel Kurtzman writes in the WSJ about Mexico’s economy suffering from illegal criminal activity brought on by the drug cartels.
In 2008, Mexico ranked 31st out of 60 countries studied in the Milken Institute/Kurtzman Group Opacity Index. The cost to ordinary Mexicans from poorly functioning institutions has been huge. My colleague, Glenn Yago, and I calculate that if Mexico were to reduce corruption and bring its legal, economic, accounting and regulatory standards up to U.S. levels (the U.S. ranks 13th and Finland ranks first), Mexico’s nominal per capital GDP would increase by about $18,000 to roughly $28,000 a year. And it would also receive a lot more direct foreign investment that would create jobs.
If a hardline response on government employees were adopted by Mexico’s President Felipe Calderón by jailing and firing personnel caught up in corruption scandals, some fear that the state of affairs are so bad that it would be impossible to feasibly make a difference without disrupting government functions. Perhaps, a suspension of civil liberties and military order would be a better and safer alternative? Speculation is that that things may get that bad in Mexico.
So what will the American government do to protect the U.S. border and what is the result of a neighboring government collapsing?
Glenn Williamson, CEO of the Canada Arizona Business Council, tells the Phoenix Business Journal he expects Obama to push harder for a step towards a North American Union. “I am starting to see a trend here from the new administration " possibly pulling in some U.S. assets in far-off countries that don’t even like us, and focusing more on a continental North America where Canada, the U.S. and Mexico could almost be energy self-sufficient. The U.S. and Canada need a strong Mexico for that to succeed. The concept of a broken Mexico or Canada on either border of the U.S. does not work.”
The report itself warns that “any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.” In the Joint Forces report, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis said: “If we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America.”
And central to the theme of the economic consequences facing America if Mexico should fall the JOE report added:
“A central component of America’s global military posture is its massive economic power. This power is predicated on a financially viable, globally connected domestic economy. Should this central feature of American power be weakened, it is highly likely that military capabilities will be diminished or otherwise degraded as a result”
U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., warned that Mexican violence and instability could be one of President-elect Barack Obama’s first security challenges. The same Phoenix Business Journal report offered this about Obama’s possible intentions.
Obama is not highly supportive of international trade policies and has promised to draw down American troops in Iraq. In addition, Democrats gained seats in Congress this year and could push for more protectionist and domestic-oriented policies.
The former US Drug Czar, Gen. (ret.) Barry McCaffrey, warned that Mexico is on the verge of becoming a “narco-state.” McCaffrey, who participated in a three-day meeting last month in Mexico of the International Forum of Intelligence and Security Specialists, an advisory body to Mexican federal law enforcement, issued a report to West Point’s Department of Social Sciences, where he serves as an adjunct professor of international affairs.
“Mexico is on the edge of the abyss"it could become a narco-state in the coming decade. Chronic drug consumption in Mexico has doubled since 2002 as has cocaine use"while US cocaine consumption has dropped by 70% in the past two decades. An estimated 5% of the Mexican population now consumes illegal drugs. None the less, 90% of all U.S. cocaine transits Mexico, and Mexico is also the dominant source of methamphetamine production for the US market. It is time to deflate the myth that US demand alone fuels Mexican drugs. However, President Calderón and Mexico’s senior leadership have launched a serious attempt to reclaim the rule of law from the chaos of the drug cartels. President Calderón has also for the first time boldly used the tool of extradition to the US, sending 83 major drug criminals north.”
Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich also joined in on the potential disaster and seriousness of the situation in Mexico. He told several business leaders in Newport Beach, CA: “We have to rethink our entire strategy for working with Mexico. The war that’s under way in Mexico is an enormous national security threat to the US. If we allow the drug dealers to win we will have a nightmare on our southern border and no amount of fence and no amount of national security would compensate for the collapse of Mexico.” (Orange County Business Journal)
President Bush, President-elect Obama and Mexican President Felipe Calderon met last week in Washington to discuss the challenges facing them. (Chicago Tribune)
For his part, Calderon said cooperation was necessary in the fight against drug cartels and mutual security. ”It will be the beginning of an extraordinary age in the relationship between the United States and Mexico.”
This new age Calderon is referring to may come on top of Bush’s $1.4 billion package in security aid, known as the Merida initiative, which gave Mexico aircraft, high-tech scanning gear, safety equipment and military and security training. The first $400 million, has already been approved by Congress last year. Should violence and political instability escalate, the President-elect may find himself militarizing the border and perhaps conducting joint military operations with Canada inside of Mexico.
And that may bring profound changes changes to North America.
Categories: Foreign Affairs, US Politics
Note especially the following line from the above___
If matters only get worse or a complete collapse of the government is imminent, the U.S. can expect a humanitarian disaster and a deluge of Mexican immigrants seeking security across the border.
I wonder what the apologists for the illegals would say then?