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A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:36 pm
sozobe wrote:
What just happened when he said "illegal immigration"? He's not talking... being booed after all?


Really? Did they cut all the sound off?

Lolz

Cycloptichorn
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Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:36 pm
Immigration garnered some boos, but they were drowned out by cheers before too long
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:37 pm
I'm watching w/ captions... he said "illegal immigration" and then there was obviously some kind of loud reaction... he smiled and waited for it to die down and it didn't, for a long time. Then he said something about "you obviously oppose," seemed like it was booing.

OK, thanks Finn.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:38 pm
He admitted he was wrong on immigration and he is going to secure the border and ensure what comes next will not encourage a new wave of illegals. He'll probably get by if he can convince the people that he actually intends to do that.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:39 pm
He looks so much happier now that he's on firm ground (FISA).
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:40 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
He admitted he was wrong on immigration and he is going to secure the border and ensure what comes next will not encourage a new wave of illegals.


Yay!

Way to dent his Latino support.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:40 pm
He just said he will not sign a bill with earmarks in it. That alone will bring back 90% of the Conservative base.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:47 pm
"staying on offense"

Bomb bomb bomb
bomb Iran

He might be simultaneously gaining conservatives and losing moderates... (not just the above, the general tenor of this speech. I can see it coming back and biting him in the butt.)
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Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:51 pm
They were chanting his name!

Very good speech - if this doesn't work, nothing will
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:52 pm
He made absolutely no reference to bombing Iran. He was pretty specific that he had no intention of allowing Iran to bomb Israel or anybody else. I think that is a pretty different distinction.

Overall he hit it out of the park. He started with a mildly hostile audience and had them on their feet cheering at the end. If he can keep this up, he can win in November and those skeptics among us will gladly push the button or punch the card or pull the lever or whatever for him. He finished about five minutes ago and they're still on their feet applauding.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:56 pm
Oh, and as a side, I heard four or five minutes of Rush this morning while driving to an appointment. He is proposing a new slogan for yard signs and bumper stickers: "Keep her in so we can win". He's also seriously considering contributing to Hillary's campaign. Smile
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 02:56 pm
He was talking about "staying on offense," and also talking about how Iran is a big threat, etc.

"Bomb Iran" was my addition, but you know that was a joke he made a while ago, right? ("Bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara Ann.")

I'll wait for a transcript to point out what I'm talking about.

For now my impression is that this will help with conservatives -- who would never vote for a Democrat anyway -- and hurt with Independents and moderates, who have been his strength.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 03:02 pm
sozobe wrote:
He was talking about "staying on offense," and also talking about how Iran is a big threat, etc.

"Bomb Iran" was my addition, but you know that was a joke he made a while ago, right? ("Bomb Iran" to the tune of "Barbara Ann.")

I'll wait for a transcript to point out what I'm talking about.

For now my impression is that this will help with conservatives -- who would never vote for a Democrat anyway -- and hurt with Independents and moderates, who have been his strength.


No, I don't think he was making a joke this time either. I think he intended to convey that he has no intention of allowing Iran to become a major threat, but he didn't specify any tactics for our side. He will still have to stay on point to convince the base that he meant everything he said today. He has to stay convincing. But he was definitely convincing today.

And I don't think he hurt himself with the independents or moderates in the least as he has not wavered in his support for Iraq and leaving with a victory in that conflict. His emphasis on strong defense has not hurt him with anybody. And he'll probably get as much of the Latino vote as Obama will.

All this is to say that I am actually encouraged.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 03:05 pm
Quote:
And I don't think he hurt himself with the independents or moderates in the least as he has not wavered in his support for Iraq and leaving with a victory in that conflict.


Independents and moderates are against that position. The Iraq war is polling at its' lowest levels ever and more then 65% of the country thinks that it was a bad idea and isn't going to end well.

So, yeah, that isn't going to help him.

Cycloptichorn
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 03:07 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Quote:
And I don't think he hurt himself with the independents or moderates in the least as he has not wavered in his support for Iraq and leaving with a victory in that conflict.


Independents and moderates are against that position. The Iraq war is polling at its' lowest levels ever and more then 65% of the country thinks that it was a bad idea and isn't going to end well.

So, yeah, that isn't going to help him.

Cycloptichorn


But neither has it hurt him among independents and moderates who support him or are leaning in his direction. I don't think all independents and moderates walk in lockstep on any position any more than liberals or conservatives do.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 03:10 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Quote:
And I don't think he hurt himself with the independents or moderates in the least as he has not wavered in his support for Iraq and leaving with a victory in that conflict.


Independents and moderates are against that position. The Iraq war is polling at its' lowest levels ever and more then 65% of the country thinks that it was a bad idea and isn't going to end well.

So, yeah, that isn't going to help him.

Cycloptichorn


But neither has it hurt him among independents and moderates who support him or are leaning in his direction. I don't think all independents and moderates walk in lockstep on any position any more than liberals or conservatives do.


I just look at the polling data. It's currently running around 65% against. Unless there are a lot more Liberals then you guys like to admit, that's most if not all of the moderates.

Cycloptichorn
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 03:39 pm
OK, here's the transcript.

http://www.examiner.com/blogs/Yeas_and_Nays/2008/2/7/Text-of-John-McCains-CPAC-Remarks

The swath I was referring to:

Quote:
They [Hillary + Obama] won't recognize and seriously address the threat posed by an Iran with nuclear ambitions to our ally, Israel, and the region.

I intend to make unmistakably clear to Iran we will not permit a government that espouses the destruction of the State of Israel as its fondest wish and pledges undying enmity to the United States to possess the weapons to advance their malevolent ambitions.

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will concede to our critics that our own actions to defend against its threats are responsible for fomenting the terrible evil of radical Islamic extremism, and their resolve to combat it will be as flawed as their judgment.

I intend to defeat that threat by staying on offense and by marshaling every relevant agency of our government, and our allies, in the urgent necessity of defending the values, virtues and security of free people against those who despise all that is good about us.


What does "staying on offense" to "make it unmistakably clear to Iran" that the U.S. won't tolerate their getting nukes mean, exactly?
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Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 04:41 pm
You can't win the nomination of your party and come out of the convention in good health and high spirits unless you have the base of that party behind you. If you can't win as a representative of your party, you are in the wrong party. Clinton and Obama cannot run from the base of their party in order to maintain their position with moderates. Neither can McCain.

McCain might lose some independent votes because he needs to reconcile with his base, but that's unavoidable.

Both Obama and Clinton will move towards the middle if they win their party's nomination. So will McCain.

Irrespective of the effect his wooing conservative ultimately produces, he will still come to the general election with a greater appeal among independents than Hillary. Obama, as in many ways, is a question mark in this regard. He could have appeal among independents but I don't think it will be significantly greater than McCains.
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Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 05:04 pm
sozobe wrote:
OK, here's the transcript.

http://www.examiner.com/blogs/Yeas_and_Nays/2008/2/7/Text-of-John-McCains-CPAC-Remarks

The swath I was referring to:

Quote:
They [Hillary + Obama] won't recognize and seriously address the threat posed by an Iran with nuclear ambitions to our ally, Israel, and the region.

I intend to make unmistakably clear to Iran we will not permit a government that espouses the destruction of the State of Israel as its fondest wish and pledges undying enmity to the United States to possess the weapons to advance their malevolent ambitions.

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will concede to our critics that our own actions to defend against its threats are responsible for fomenting the terrible evil of radical Islamic extremism, and their resolve to combat it will be as flawed as their judgment.

I intend to defeat that threat by staying on offense and by marshaling every relevant agency of our government, and our allies, in the urgent necessity of defending the values, virtues and security of free people against those who despise all that is good about us.


What does "staying on offense" to "make it unmistakably clear to Iran" that the U.S. won't tolerate their getting nukes mean, exactly?


You'll have to ask McCain for his precise meaning, but I think you are reading too much into his comments.

He was making the point that Democrats suggest that the very effort of defending ourselves against our enemies is responsible for the enmity and numbers of the enemy. This is the argument that we have created a breeding ground for terrorists in Iraq; that rather than combating terrorism we have succeeded only in feeding the forces that lead to it.
I don't think you'll disagree that this is a Democratic argument.

McCain counters with not only are we going to defend ourselves against the enemy, we are going to take the fight to them: Afghanistan and Iraq are two fields of battle in this offense.

I have heard McCain speak about the problem with Iranian nukes, and he does not endorse military action over diplomacy. I'm sure that as president he will attempt to reign Iran in by going on the offense with renewed efforts for sanctions and boycotts. I'm also sure that he will never take the option of military action off the table - nor should he. Frankly, I hope that whomever the president is, he or she will take military action before allowing Iran to have nuclear weapons. I fully expect all diplomatic efforts to first be exhausted, but we cannot do it alone and the extent to which other nations will cooperate with us is dependent upon a complex mix of differing interests, not whether or not they like our president.

I feel certain that an Obama White House will allow Iran to posses nuclear weapons rather than take military action. I'm not sure about a Clinton White House.

You may prefer the Obama approach which is fine, but many don't and that's why we're having an election in November.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Feb, 2008 05:07 pm
Quote:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/anneschroeder/0208/CPAC_to_all_CPACers_Dont_boo_McCain.html
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