A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

OK, a question about 2008 that Ive been wondering about for a while now.

I actually agree with the conservatives that the currently disastrous poll numbers for Bush, Cheney and the Republicans in Congress (all of Congress, but the Republicans in particular) don't actually need to have any consequence for the 2008 Presidential elections. They can affect any close race this year; they can affect the administration's ability to push through any further ambitious initiative until 2008 - but they don't much herald any change in the prospects for '08.

At least, they don't need to, depending on who's running. And there's my question.

The names mentioned so far again and again are Giuliani and McCain (Pataki too, but he seems to be a bit of a non-entity). Pretty much every single opinion poll have McCain and, to a lesser extent, Giuliani whooping Hillary's ass. It sure looks like she wouldnt stand a chance against either. Too solid a ceiling to her support, too high and determined a negative rate, when most people are still very open to what McCain or Giuliani may turn out to bring.

Question is: does either of them actually have a good chance of getting through the Republican primaries, first?

McCain hasnt hesitated to, again and again, anger the religious right and the loyal Bushites. He still often enough revels in his outsider, dissident role vis-a-vis the party (if not, anymore, Bush personally) - most recently on immigration. He's made a lot of enemies. He's still strident about the political & campaign reform/transparency crusade he took in 2000, which mobilised the whole powerful 'machine politics' against him then.

Giuliani will not encounter anything like that kind of personal resentment within the party. But a NY Republican, he has plenty of views that are far to the left of the Republican mainstream. In particular on the values map that has come to be the touchstone of Republican politics this last decade: gay marriage, abortion, etc.

Both candidates, once in power, could significantly shake up the political orientation that the party's shifted to since Bush Sr - or at the very least disarm much of the political clout that the religious right and the Gingrich-conservatives have so stubbornly built. I cant imagine they'll just roll over at the prospect.

If there is no credible counter-candidate, either would win, I suppose, especially if their poll numbers remain so good - much like Kerry got through because so many Democrats (misguidedly) held their nose and voted for him as the 'electable' alternative. But one would expect that either the religious conservatives, or the Bush2000 power-conservatives (no campaign reform or all too harsh a corruption clampdown please), would actively seek to groom an alternative, a candidate of their own to preserve the status quo within the party. Perhaps together.

But the question there is, who? Condoleezza Rice would be a bold move, but the problem is that she seems to have no interest in the race whatsoever, and that she doesnt actually cut all too good a figure in the polls against Hillary. Moreover, if the poll numbers for Bush and his admin keep falling, then the political capital of loyalists from within the admin will sink too.

What alternative, though? Does anyone take Bill Frist seriously as a candidate? What about Gingrich himself, I understood he considers running too, but he's hardly the most mediagenic of politicians...

So what will happen? Do you think McCain or Giuliani would make it through the primaries? Do you think the rightwing of the Republicans will recruit and mobilise around one or two alternative candidates? Would McCain or Giuliani still make it then? And who could those alternative candidate(s) be?