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A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

 
 
nimh
 
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 09:19 am
OK, a question about 2008 that Ive been wondering about for a while now.

I actually agree with the conservatives that the currently disastrous poll numbers for Bush, Cheney and the Republicans in Congress (all of Congress, but the Republicans in particular) don't actually need to have any consequence for the 2008 Presidential elections. They can affect any close race this year; they can affect the administration's ability to push through any further ambitious initiative until 2008 - but they don't much herald any change in the prospects for '08.

At least, they don't need to, depending on who's running. And there's my question.

The names mentioned so far again and again are Giuliani and McCain (Pataki too, but he seems to be a bit of a non-entity). Pretty much every single opinion poll have McCain and, to a lesser extent, Giuliani whooping Hillary's ass. It sure looks like she wouldnt stand a chance against either. Too solid a ceiling to her support, too high and determined a negative rate, when most people are still very open to what McCain or Giuliani may turn out to bring.

Question is: does either of them actually have a good chance of getting through the Republican primaries, first?

McCain hasnt hesitated to, again and again, anger the religious right and the loyal Bushites. He still often enough revels in his outsider, dissident role vis-a-vis the party (if not, anymore, Bush personally) - most recently on immigration. He's made a lot of enemies. He's still strident about the political & campaign reform/transparency crusade he took in 2000, which mobilised the whole powerful 'machine politics' against him then.

Giuliani will not encounter anything like that kind of personal resentment within the party. But a NY Republican, he has plenty of views that are far to the left of the Republican mainstream. In particular on the values map that has come to be the touchstone of Republican politics this last decade: gay marriage, abortion, etc.

Both candidates, once in power, could significantly shake up the political orientation that the party's shifted to since Bush Sr - or at the very least disarm much of the political clout that the religious right and the Gingrich-conservatives have so stubbornly built. I cant imagine they'll just roll over at the prospect.

If there is no credible counter-candidate, either would win, I suppose, especially if their poll numbers remain so good - much like Kerry got through because so many Democrats (misguidedly) held their nose and voted for him as the 'electable' alternative. But one would expect that either the religious conservatives, or the Bush2000 power-conservatives (no campaign reform or all too harsh a corruption clampdown please), would actively seek to groom an alternative, a candidate of their own to preserve the status quo within the party. Perhaps together.

But the question there is, who? Condoleezza Rice would be a bold move, but the problem is that she seems to have no interest in the race whatsoever, and that she doesnt actually cut all too good a figure in the polls against Hillary. Moreover, if the poll numbers for Bush and his admin keep falling, then the political capital of loyalists from within the admin will sink too.

What alternative, though? Does anyone take Bill Frist seriously as a candidate? What about Gingrich himself, I understood he considers running too, but he's hardly the most mediagenic of politicians...

So what will happen? Do you think McCain or Giuliani would make it through the primaries? Do you think the rightwing of the Republicans will recruit and mobilise around one or two alternative candidates? Would McCain or Giuliani still make it then? And who could those alternative candidate(s) be?
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 09:25 am
The impression I have is that the inner Bush circle is big on grudges. As such, I just can't imagine McCain making it. He's dissed Bush too often. I also can't imagine other Republican forces doing an end-run around Bush, if Bush doesn't want it to happen.

Giuliani, I dunno. There is less of a direct dissing element. When you think of him, you think "9/11", which has been something Bush has wanted people to think about, often. But he's moderate in a lot of ways, and a bit frail health-wise.

Hmmm...
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McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 10:01 am
I am hoping the Republican party tries too avoid any connections with the current administration in 2008. The Dem's have done too good a job embarrassing them at every turn (mostly because the Bush admin has made it incredibly easy to do). I would very much like to see McCain run and I believe he would be a shoe in as the next President. I don't see any stronger contender from the right and if the Republicans wish to hold onto the white house they will need to present a more moderate candidate than Bush.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 10:07 am
Hell, I'd vote for McCain over Hillary, I think, depending on how far right he'd be forced to go in the primaries. (Most likely, instead of choosing, I'd end up going for some third party if Hillary runs... Go Cobb.)
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Green Witch
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 10:11 am
I would like to see a moderate (either side) win so we can end the civil war that is going on in American. Extremes are always a problem. However, I can't support McCain because is not pro-choice. Who ever gets in is going to have a very big mess to clean-up and has my sympathy.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 10:12 am
McGentrix wrote:
I would very much like to see McCain run and I believe he would be a shoe in as the next President.

Wow -- I almost agree with McGentrix! The end of the world must be nigh. Razz
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 11:26 am
Somebody please explain to me the love affair for McCain, by "moderates," the press, some Republicans, and many Democrats. I have some theories but to be honest, the treatment of McCain by the media as a darling and other things about him truly is puzzling.

To reveal part of my question here is that McCain has been a fairly big supporter of the war, and that issue seems to be 75% of the opposition as claimed against Bush by his opposition, many of which are McCain supporters. Surely the reason for his support can't all be because of pro-choice?
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engineer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 11:34 am
McCain has been a republican who has set a different path that President Bush. That gets press. Not a lot different, and not that different on many issues, but clearly different. McCain has several classic Republican credentials: reducd spending, control the deficit, strong military, minimal engagement in foriegn entanglements. He also has avoided the pitfalls that the President has waded into: torture, out-of-control spending. After the SC primary in 2000 and what the Bush campaign alledgedly did to McCain there, it was clear that he didn't think all that much of the President and that also makes great press. I agree that McCain has the presidency if he wants it and is willing to put up with what it will take to get it.
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engineer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 11:36 am
okie wrote:
Surely the reason for his support can't all be because of pro-choice?

Missed this part... McCain is part of the anti-Abortion rights crowd with the President.
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FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 11:41 am
McGentrix wrote:
I am hoping the Republican party tries too avoid any connections with the current administration in 2008. The Dem's have done too good a job embarrassing them at every turn (mostly because the Bush admin has made it incredibly easy to do). I would very much like to see McCain run and I believe he would be a shoe in as the next President. I don't see any stronger contender from the right and if the Republicans wish to hold onto the white house they will need to present a more moderate candidate than Bush.


Ok, I take back what I said about your posts earlier. I completely agree with this post.

The only downside to McCain's nomination and election will be that we will become essentially a one-party country. The Democrats just don't have much to counter it with. The only hope would be that a major faction (or two) chafes under McCain's reforming and splits out into their own minority party(s).
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 12:30 pm
okie wrote:
Somebody please explain to me the love affair for McCain, by "moderates," the press, some Republicans, and many Democrats. I have some theories but to be honest, the treatment of McCain by the media as a darling and other things about him truly is puzzling.

To reveal part of my question here is that McCain has been a fairly big supporter of the war, and that issue seems to be 75% of the opposition as claimed against Bush by his opposition, many of which are McCain supporters. Surely the reason for his support can't all be because of pro-choice?


McCain represents integrity. I like the fact that he will stand up for what he believes even when it goes against his party or politics.

I deeply respect his positions on Immigration, and on the use of torture. The fact that he takes these position in spite of opposition from his own party makes him all the more impressive.

I disagree with him on the war, but I also trust him. He would be 100 times better than the current administration on running the war (and deciding when to end it).

His ability to rise above politics on issues that matter is unique among other candidates that have been mentioned in either party.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 12:30 pm
Thanks for others opinion on McCain. I would vote for virtually anyone running against Hillary, so if McCain won as a Republican, I would probably hold my nose and vote for him.

My gut feeling is McCain is a bit of a charlatan, he panders to the press, and he is bit naive. The charlatan opinion is because I think he purposely triangulates himself politically, not because of what he truly thinks, but to position himself in the best light politically. The pandering to the press opinion is because he never misses a chance to show his face and worship at the feet of the limelight. The naivity is demonstrated by his stupid campaign finance reform. I don't think he is that smart and would advocate reforms that have unintended consequences. But then again, look at Bush's prescription drug plan as a prime example of that.

Another part of my problem with John is his demeanor and treatment of some radio talk show hosts. He will simply not come on some shows and answer questions with a straight answer, and he holds grudges. He will take a position based not on the merits but on whether it is popular or not. And the scary part is that he apparently actually talked to John Kerry about being his running mate. That was truly revealing. The man wants to be president, almost desperately, too much in my opinion.

Beyond those very minor criticisms, I'm sure hes a nice guy. Anybody but Hillary. But really, he has to win first, and for some reason, the press always overrates him in terms of being able to win. I do not think he is a "shoe in" in any way, shape, or form, as McGentrix says.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 12:37 pm
okie wrote:
Somebody please explain to me the love affair for McCain, by "moderates," the press, some Republicans, and many Democrats.

In one sentence, he's a grown-up; this makes him stand out, lets us forgive his errors, and fosters our respect even when we disagree with him.
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mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 04:54 pm
I will say this.
If Evan Bayh (D) In,runs,I WILL SUPPORT HIM.
I like him,and I trust him.
I dont always agree with him (he is a liberal and I'm a conservative),but I have met him,and he would get my vote.

Having said that,if Sen. John Edwards (R) NC,runs,he will get my vote on the repub side.
He is the closest to a true "Reagan republican" since Ronald Reagan.

I am neither dem or repub,but those are the 2 people that would get my support and vote.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 05:03 pm
Interesting about Evan Bayh. I know this is about the Republicans, so don't want to get into that side of it too much, but have been keeping an eye on him and am not sure what I think. MM liking him makes him more interesting, to me.

Meanwhile, who is John Edwards (R) NC? The only one I could find was the one I first thought you meant, but who is emphatically NOT a Republican, Kerry's running mate.
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 05:15 pm
sozobe wrote:
Interesting about Evan Bayh. I know this is about the Republicans, so don't want to get into that side of it too much, but have been keeping an eye on him and am not sure what I think. MM liking him makes him more interesting, to me.

Meanwhile, who is John Edwards (R) NC? The only one I could find was the one I first thought you meant, but who is emphatically NOT a Republican, Kerry's running mate.


I apologize,I most emphatically did NOT mean John Edwards.
I was listening to the news and his name came up on the news while I was typing this... Embarrassed Embarrassed

I meant George Allen from Va.
He is a true "reagan republican" and a conservative.
I would support him if he ran.
Of course,that puts me in a true bind if both of them ran AND got their parties nominations.

The reason I like Evan Bayh is simple...Even though I disagree with much of what he believes,he tells the truth.
He wont tell you that things are going to get better,unless they are.
He is,IMHO,a man of his word.And that is ,again IMHO,the most important thing.
He doesnt sugarcoat things,but then again he doesnt make things seem worse then they are.
Then there are the intangibles,things that may not be important,but to me they define a person.
He looks you in the eye when he is talking to you,he remembers your name when speaking to you,and he LISTENS to what you are saying.
Granted,those are small things,but to me they are extremely important things.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 05:19 pm
Ah, OK. Never heard of him, just read up on him a bit. (Here, if anyone else is interested):

http://allen.senate.gov/

Doesn't really say much about where he stands on issues, though:

http://allen.senate.gov/?c=issues
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mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 05:28 pm
sozobe wrote:
Ah, OK. Never heard of him, just read up on him a bit. (Here, if anyone else is interested):

http://allen.senate.gov/

Doesn't really say much about where he stands on issues, though:

http://allen.senate.gov/?c=issues


This is dated information,but here is a partial list of his stand on some issues.
Its from before the '04 election,but the info is here to look at...

http://www.issues2000.org/Senate/George_Allen.htm
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 05:36 pm
Well, all I can say is, EW. Laughing

Quote:
Voted NO on $100M to reduce teen pregnancy by education & contraceptives.

-snip-

Opposes "Sexual orientation protected by civil rights laws".

-snip-

Voted NO on adding sexual orientation to definition of hate crimes.

-snip-

# Rated 20% by the ACLU, indicating an anti-civil rights voting record.

[This is actually a selling point! Anti-civil rights! Wow.]

-snip-

Abolished parole; instituted Three Strikes laws.

-snip-

Voted NO on shifting $11B from corporate tax loopholes to education.

-snip-

Voted NO on reducing oil usage by 40% by 2025 (instead of 5%).

-snip-

Voted NO on including oil & gas smokestacks in mercury regulations.

-snip-

Rated 0% by the LCV, indicating anti-environment votes.

-snip-

Opposes linking Human Rights to trade with China.

-snip-

Voted NO on banning "soft money" contributions and restricting issue ads.

-snip-

Voted YES on prohibiting lawsuits against gun manufacturers.

-snip-


Well, I'm only about halfway through and I'm getting tired of the cutting and pasting -- suffice it to say, this is not someone I'd vote for. Ever. In a zillion years. Laughing
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Mar, 2006 05:42 pm
sozobe,
Thats what makes politics grand.
I support him,and you dont.



FYI,here is Where Evan Bayh stands on the same issues...

http://www.issues2000.org/Senate/Evan_Bayh.htm
0 Replies
 
 

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