A Great President for These Terrible Times
September 14, 2006
LET me be the first to offer a bold, revisionist view. George W. Bush may well be judged, ultimately, a great president, especially in foreign policy, especially in the war on terror. This consensus won't form for 20 or perhaps 30 years.
Bush resembles Harry Truman. This is not an original observation on my part. Bush himself sometimes makes the comparison. Truman as president understood the Cold War, which broke out on his watch. He set the policies in place, which became known as containment, which led to the defeat of the Soviet Union more than 40 years later.
Bush understands much better than his critics the war on terror and the way the world works more broadly. Above all, he has had the courage to confront reality. The key planks of the Bush doctrine - regarding terrorists not as criminals but as a force at war with the US and its allies; holding state sponsors of terror responsible for the actions of their terrorist surrogates; seeing the root of terror in the profoundly dysfunctional political culture of the Middle East and fighting the ideas behind terror with an agenda of democracy and human rights; reserving the right to take pre-emptive military action against threats that could involve weapons of mass destruction - all these will be maintained by Bush's presidential successors.
Bush, like Truman, has delineated the outlines of the strategy for the war of his time, a war that will last, as Kim Beazley has lately pointed out, for generations.
Truman, you will recall, was an accidental president, much more accidental than Bush. He was a machine senator whom the Democratic Party foisted on Franklin Roosevelt as vice-president because they thought Roosevelt's previous vice-president, Henry Wallace, was, not to put too fine a point on it, a nut.
FDR never liked Truman and rarely consulted him, indeed rarely talked to him. So when FDR died near the end of World War II Truman was seemingly unprepared for foreign policy and national security. Truman never enjoyed a high reputation in office. By the time of the 1952 election, Truman was so discredited that he did not even run for re-election.
Just as Bush's war is Iraq, Truman's war was Korea. As quagmires go, Korea was an infinitely bigger show than Iraq. The US lost more than 50,000 soldiers there and Australia several hundred. Truman failed to win a total victory and fell out spectacularly with his military commander, General Douglas MacArthur, whom he sacked.
The parallels are striking. Bush has not fallen out with his generals but he has faced a continuing insurrection by the CIA. The CIA contains many dedicated folks who do a fine job. But it has a poor record on Iraq and many of its leaders have been consistently disloyal to Bush.
In a democracy, it seems to me, you have a pretty clear choice. You can campaign against government policy, or you can work for an intelligence agency. Many CIA folks have done both. Bush should have fired more of them, as Truman fired MacArthur.
The latest CIA conclusion, that Saddam Hussein had no connections with al-Qa'ida, has to be viewed against the CIA's record of getting everything wrong about Iraq. It was CIA director George Tenet after all, who assured Bush that the case that Saddam had WMDs was a "slam dunk". It also should be noted that saying Saddam had no connections to al-Qa'ida covers the CIA's bureaucratic posterior and lets them off for their flawed assessments of terrorism all through the 1990s. There is substantial evidence of Saddam-al-Qa'ida connections, but that's another column.
The broader political point is that Bush, like Truman, has pursued his policy against the tenacious opposition of some large measure of the US national security establishment.
One of the many failures of the feckless Clinton administration was its inability to take terrorism seriously. Despite the 1993 terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre, which could so easily have done what 9/11 did, Clinton oversaw extensive reductions in US intelligence in the mid-'90s.
The Clinton administration saw terrorism as a law and order problem and prevented even those few officials who recognised its gravity from taking effective action.
Bush's central insight was to understand, from 9/11, that the terrorists are at war with civilisation, that there is a specific enemy, the ideology of fundamentalist, extremist Islamism represented by al-Qa'ida. Because this terrorist movement is large and has some measure of support from elements of some state apparatuses, and is clever about making alliances, and because it has no moral scruple or restraint and seeks to acquire and use nuclear weapons, it represents a fundamental threat, as great as that of the Soviet Union, though different in character.
One of Bush's key decisions, and this was truly the insight of the much derided neo-conservatives, was that the status quo ante in the Middle East did not produce stability but produced growing terrorism. I believe Bush was right to take action against Iraq and Australia was right to join this action, in part because everyone believed that Iraq possessed WMDs, but also because Saddam was the most prolific state murderer of the second half of the 20th century and threatened his neighbours. He also supported much international terrorism and rejoiced in the al-Qa'ida attacks of 9/11.
The danger of his co-operating in WMDs with terrorists was great. The people of Iraq apparently do want democracy. Whenever they are given the chance, they vote in huge numbers. Most of the killing in Iraq has not been done by Americans or their allies but by Iraqi and foreign enemies of democracy because absolutely everything bad in the Middle East understands that it will be hurt by democracy in Iraq. What is perhaps most fascinating lately is the lack of support among Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians for the al-Qa'ida agenda.
None of this is to diminish the Bush mistakes: the fatal disunity between the Pentagon, the CIA and the State Department in the first administration, the lack of post-conflict planning and many other errors in Iraq.
But any strategy by any president in the Middle East would look messy. Much of the judgment on Bush is absurdly unrealistic in its failure to acknowledge that the enemy gets a say in what the battlefield looks like. The war on terror is an epic struggle. Any epic struggle you care to think of - the US Civil War, World War II, the Cold War - involved many mistakes and many lost battles. All war, including the war on terror, is very, very messy. It is not conducted in bow ties by well-mannered air forces, shaking hands first and then meeting for well-ordered battles off shore and far up in the sky.
Bush has made many blunders but he has never shirked the most important tasks of the age. Give 'em hell Harry Truman, the plain man from Missouri, would be proud of him.