THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, TENTH THREAD.

I'm less concerned about the world's changes than I am about humanity's changes. I would love for humanity to change such that pernicious envy decreases as a character trait of so many. However, I fear that there is a real danger that pernicious envy will increase as a character trait of so many. I bet that if that were to happen, in 500 years humanity will have disappeared from the earth, and the earth will have changed on that account.

Wouldn't it be great if there were a religion persuasive enough to get all people to root for rather than root against one another?

Bush Adviser's Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi Leader
November 29, 2006
Bush Adviser's Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi Leader
By MICHAEL R. GORDON
New York Times

A classified memorandum by President Bush's national security adviser expressed serious doubts about whether Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki had the capacity to control the sectarian violence in Iraq and recommended that the United States take new steps to strengthen the Iraqi leader's position.

The Nov. 8 memo was prepared for Mr. Bush and his top deputies by Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, and senior aides on the staff of the National Security Council after a trip by Mr. Hadley to Baghdad.

The memo suggests that if Mr. Maliki fails to carry out a series of specified steps, it may ultimately be necessary to press him to reconfigure his parliamentary bloc, a step the United States could support by providing "monetary support to moderate groups," and by sending thousands of additional American troops to Baghdad to make up for what the document suggests is a current shortage of Iraqi forces.

The memo presents an unvarnished portrait of Mr. Maliki and notes that he relies for some of his political support on leaders of more extreme Shiite groups. The five-page document, classified secret, is based in part on a one-on-one meeting between Mr. Hadley and Mr. Maliki on Oct. 30.

"His intentions seem good when he talks with Americans, and sensitive reporting suggests he is trying to stand up to the Shia hierarchy and force positive change," the memo said of the Iraqi leader. "But the reality on the streets of Baghdad suggests Maliki is either ignorant of what is going on, misrepresenting his intentions, or that his capabilities are not yet sufficient to turn his good intentions into action."

An administration official made a copy of the document available to a New York Times reporter seeking information on the administration's policy review. The Times read and transcribed the memo.

The White House has sought to avoid public criticism of Mr. Maliki, who is scheduled to meet with Mr. Bush in Jordan on Wednesday. The latest surge of sectarian violence in Baghdad and the Democratic victories in the midterm elections are prompting calls for sharp changes in American policy. Such changes are among options being debated by the Iraq Study Group, the bipartisan panel led by James A. Baker III and Lee H. Hamilton.

A senior administration official discussed the memorandum in general terms after being told The New York Times was preparing an article on the subject. The official described the document as "essentially a trip report" and not a result of the administration's review of its Iraq policy, which is still under way.

He said the purpose of the memo "was to provide a snapshot of the challenges facing Prime Minister Maliki and how we can best enhance his capabilities, mindful of the complex political and security environment in which he is operating."

The American delegation that went to Iraq with Mr. Hadley included Meghan L. O'Sullivan, the deputy national security adviser, and three other members of the National Security Council staff. The memo, prepared after that trip, has been circulated to cabinet-level officials who are participating in the administration's review of Iraq strategy.

There is nothing in the memo that suggests the Bush administration is interested in replacing Mr. Maliki as prime minister. But while Mr. Bush has stated that he has confidence in the Iraqi leader, the memo questions whether Mr. Maliki has the will and ability to establish a genuine unity government, saying the answer will emerge from actions he takes in the weeks and months ahead.

"We returned from Iraq convinced we need to determine if Prime Minister Maliki is both willing and able to rise above the sectarian agendas being promoted by others," the memo says. "Do we and Prime Minister Maliki share the same vision for Iraq? If so, is he able to curb those who seek Shia hegemony or the reassertion of Sunni power? The answers to these questions are key in determining whether we have the right strategy in Iraq."

In describing the Oct. 30 meeting between Mr. Hadley and Mr. Maliki, it says: "Maliki reiterated a vision of Shia, Sunni and Kurdish partnership, and in my one-on-one meeting with him, he impressed me as a leader who wanted to be strong but was having difficulty figuring out how to do so." It said the Iraqi leader's assurances seemed to have been contradicted by developments on the ground, including the Iraqi government's approach to the Mahdi Army, a Shiite militia known in Arabic as Jaish al-Mahdi and headed by Moktada al-Sadr.

"Reports of nondelivery of services to Sunni areas, intervention by the prime minister's office to stop military action against Shia targets and to encourage them against Sunni ones, removal of Iraq's most effective commanders on a sectarian basis and efforts to ensure Shia majorities in all ministries ?- when combined with the escalation of Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) killings ?- all suggest a campaign to consolidate Shia power in Baghdad."

Among the concerns voiced in the memo was that Mr. Maliki was surrounded by a small group of advisers from the Shiite Dawa Party, a narrow circle that American officials worry may skew the information he receives.

The memo outlines a number of short-term steps Mr. Maliki could undertake to establish control. The Iraqi leader has recently indicated his intention to take some of those steps, like announcing his intention to expand the size of the Iraqi Army and declaring that Iraq will seek an extension of the United Nations mandate that provides for the deployment of the American-led multinational force in Iraq. The United Nations Security Council voted on Tuesday to extend that mandate.

The memo also lists steps the United States can take to strengthen Mr. Maliki's position. They include efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to use its influence with the Sunnis in Iraq and encourage them to turn away from the insurgency and to seek a political accommodation.

Addressing Mr. Bush, the memo said one option was for the president to "direct your cabinet to begin an intensive press on Saudi Arabia to play a leadership role on Iraq, connecting this role with other areas in which Saudi Arabia wants to see U.S. action." Although the memo did not offer specifics, this appeared to be an allusion to a more active American role in the Arab-Israeli peace process. Recently, Israel's prime minister, Ehud Olmert, has reached out to the Palestinians and has said he wants to move ahead with peace talks. But the memo's authors also contemplate the possibility that Mr. Maliki's position may be too tenuous for him to take the steps needed to curb the power of Shiite militias, to establish a more diverse and representative personal staff and to arrest the escalating sectarian strife.

In that case, the memo suggests, it may ultimately be necessary for Mr. Maliki to recast his parliamentary bloc, a step the United States could support by pressing moderates to align themselves with the Iraqi leader and providing them with monetary support.

The memo refers to "the current four-brigade gap in Baghdad," a seeming acknowledgment that there is a substantial shortfall of troops in the Iraqi capital compared with the level needed to provide security there, in part because the Iraqi government has not dispatched all the forces it has promised. An American brigade generally numbers about 3,500 troops, though Iraqi units can be smaller. While Democrats have advocated beginning troop withdrawals as a means of putting pressure on Mr. Maliki, the memo suggests that such tactics may backfire by stirring up opposition against a politically vulnerable leader.

"Pushing Maliki to take these steps without augmenting his capabilities could force him to failure ?- if the Parliament removes him from office with a majority vote or if action against the Mahdi militia (JAM) causes elements of the Iraqi Security Forces to fracture and leads to major Shia disturbances in southern Iraq," the memo says.

The memo lists a number of possible steps to build up Mr. Maliki's capability. They include asking Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the senior American commander, to develop a plan to strengthen the Iraqi leader.

This could involve the formation of a new National Strike Force, significantly increasing the number of American advisers working with the Iraqi National Police, a force that has been infiltrated by Shiite militias, and putting more Iraqi forces directly under Mr. Maliki's control.

In addition, the memorandum suggests that Mr. Bush ask the Pentagon and General Casey "to make a recommendation about whether more forces are needed in Baghdad."

The administration appears to have already begun carrying out some of the steps recommended in the document. Among them were a trip over the weekend by Vice President Dick Cheney to Saudi Arabia as part of an effort to seek help from Sunni Arab powers in encouraging Sunni groups in Iraq to seek a political compromise with Mr. Maliki.

The senior administration official who agreed to discuss the memo would do so only on condition of anonymity. The official said some of the steps projected in the document were being carried out.

The official also stressed that the administration retains confidence in the Iraqi leader. "What we are seeing is that he had the right intentions and is willing to act," the senior official said. "Our own review has opened a consultative process on where Maliki wants to take the government. A successful strategy has to be one that is driven by the Iraqis."

Re: Bush Adviser’s Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi L

While this memo is classified, it's no secret that almost all of us have serious doubts about "whether Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki [has] the capacity to control the sectarian violence in Iraq." But it is secret that members of our government are thinking this is true.

It is also no secret that the New York Times has again violated federal law by publishing a classified document before it is declassified.

I think this newest New York Times's breach of USA security also hinders rather than helps solve the problem. It is not only illegal; it is irresponsible, because it gives aid and comfort to our enemies in their continuing sectarian violence in Iraq.

The publisher of the New York Times must be held accountable for this breach of USA security in order to discourage such future breaches.

Re: Bush Adviser’s Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi L


Well good for the NYT. The American public should be informed and this information is not going to damage our security.

ican711nm

Did it ever cross your mind that if it was indeed classified, to ask why it was given to the times? I will give you that answer. Because the administration wanted it disseminated.

As it was most assuredly a Cabinet member who leaked this,

Why are you not calling for an investigation into who leaked, Ican?

The Times has the right to print whatever it wishes. You need to go to the source if you want to stop leaks...

Cycloptichorn

Re: Bush Adviser’s Memo Cites Doubts About Iraqi L

It isn't exactly clear which aspect you find humorous, Ican. The fact that a senior admin official is leaking to the press should be a cause of some concern for you, one would think.

Cycloptichorn

The aspect I find humorous is your and your buddies' reactions to the leak.

Really?

You wrote:



But, it is also a violation of Federal law to disseminate classified information to news organizations. What more, those in the Federal government swear an oath not to do so, whereas the NYT takes no such oath whatsoever.

You are faced with a difficult choice here: either admit that you don't care about the law being broken and you just like to take jabs at the NYT whenever you can, or you should admit that serious efforts need to be taken to stop leaking from within the higher levels of the Executive branch, and that investigations need to be launched in order to do so.

Cycloptichorn

'NY Times' Gets Scoop on Key Conclusions by Iraq Study Group
'NY Times' Gets Scoop on Key Conclusions by Iraq Study Group
Published: November 30, 2006
E & P

A bipartisan commission next week will unveil long-awaited recommendations for a new U.S. policy in Iraq that a published report said would call for a gradual pullback of U.S. troops there ?- without a timetable ?- and direct diplomacy with Iran and Syria.

The New York Times reported on its Web site Wednesday night that the study group will call for a gradual pullback of the 15 American brigades now in Iraq, but will stop short of setting a specific timetable for their withdrawal.

The Times, citing unidentified people familiar with the report, said it does not state whether the brigades, numbering 3,000 to 5,000 troops each, should be pulled back to isolated bases in Iraq or to neighboring countries.

Such recommendations would require a shift in policy for the Bush administration that President Bush has shown no hint of implementing.

"This business about a graceful exit just simply has no realism to it at all,'' he said Thursday at a news conference in Jordan.

Without any specific reference to the commission, Bush acknowledged a general pressure for U.S. troop withdrawals but said, "We'll be in Iraq until the job is complete, at the request of a sovereign government elected by the people.''

The panel's co-chairman, former Rep. Lee Hamilton, D-Ind., said Wednesday that the group has reached a consensus and would announce its proposals next Wednesday.

Hamilton declined to disclose any specifics about the group's decisions. The much-anticipated report is coming out amid spiraling violence in Iraq that has raised questions about the viability of the Iraqi government.

"This afternoon, we reached a consensus ... and we will announce that on Dec. 6,'' Hamilton told a forum on national security at the Center for American Progress, a liberal group.

"We're making recommendations,'' said Hamilton, who led the Iraq Study Group with former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, a Republican.

Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman the National Security Council traveling with Bush in Jordan, said the White House had not yet been given any advance briefing about what the group would recommend and had no comment on the Times report.

Defense officials, meanwhile, said the Pentagon is developing plans to send four more battalions to Iraq early next year, including some to Baghdad. The extra combat engineer units of Army reserves would total about 3,500 troops and would come from around the United States, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deployments have not been announced.

The units would provide support for other combat troops, but their specific missions were not disclosed.

The study group is expected to recommend regional talks involving Syria and Iran. The administration has been reluctant to engage those two countries, which it says have abetted the violence in Iraq.

It was unclear exactly what the group would recommend regarding possible U.S. troop withdrawals, an issue that proved divisive during meetings this week. The members ?- five Democrats and five Republicans ?- were split over the appropriate U.S. troop levels in Iraq, and whether and how to pull American forces out, according to one official close to the panel's deliberations.

A second official has said the commission was unlikely to propose a timetable for withdrawing all U.S. troops, but that some members seem to favor setting a date for an initial withdrawal. That is an idea favored by many congressional Democrats.

There are currently about 139,000 U.S. troops in Iraq; some 20,000 are in and around Baghdad, the capital.

At a news conference Wednesday, Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, would not say whether more troops were planned for Baghdad. He did say that was among the ideas that commanders were debating.

He also said there was no plan to shift all troops from the volatile Anbar province into Baghdad.

Joe Doaks violated federal law by leaking a classified document.

NYT violated federal law by publishing a classified document.

You and your buddies' reaction: shame on Joe Doaks because he took an oath and the NYT didn't take an oath.

No, that in fact isn't our reaction whatsoever.

I don't say shame on anyone for leaking this info. I'm a proponent of open and non-secret government.

You are the one who is crying foul because of leaks...

I again ask you: do you think there should be investigations of who is leaking in the Executive branch, or are you going to shut up about the NYT? You can't have it both ways.

Cycloptichorn

Al-Maliki: Iraqi forces can assume control in June

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/30/bush.trip.ap/index.html

brigadier general john custer , senior intelligence officer of the u.s. army in iraq , spoke briefly on CNN-NEWS this afternoon .
his two main points were :
1) he expects the fighting between shia und sunny forces to go on for years to come ,
2) he said that iran plays a minor role in the internal iraqi struggle ;
should iran completely disappear from the scene , it would only have have a minor impact on the fighting taking place .

he could not have been any clearer in his statements .
hbg

Law lord attacks 'totalitarian' Bush regime
Joshua Rozenberg
London Telegraph
Thursday, November 30, 2006

A former law lord last night accused the Government of prosecuting a "lawless and outrageous" war in Iraq and condemned the Bush administration for behaving like a "totalitarian police state". Calling for troops to be pulled out of Iraq, Lord Steyn, in a lecture to the Bar Council's law reform committee, said it was "a black day for the rule of law" when Lord Goldsmith, the Attorney General, advised Tony Blair in 2003 that an invasion would be lawful.

Lord Steyn, 74, said last night that Mr Blair was an "ever compliant ally" of the Bush administration, a view he has aired several times in the past.

"Our prime minister backed the Bush administration in regard to its so-called war on terrorism, however lawless and outrageous the means adopted," he said. The war "was an invasion by the US and Britain, without Security Council approval, of a sovereign country in a region of high social, religious and political tensions. It always was a reckless adventure against which the Foreign Office warned."

...


...



CORRECTION
Joe Doaks violated federal law by leaking a classified document.

JOHN DOE violated federal law by publishing a classified document.

You and your buddies' reaction: DO I THINK THERE SHOULD BE AN INVESTIGATION OF WHO IS Joe Doaks because he took an oath and John Doe didn't take an oath AND CAN PRINT WHATEVER HE WISHES.



I think there should be investigations to determine who are Joe Doaks and John Doe. After that is determined, I think they both should be prosecuted.