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THE US, THE UN AND IRAQ, TENTH THREAD.

 
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Oct, 2006 12:33 pm
quote : "The Kurds pretty much have a federation already. "

and it remains to be seen if they would be willing to be "under an umbrella" that would likely be held by shiites and sunnis .
and it also seems that the division of oil revenues will not be an easy question to solve .

still , i sure hope they can come to some kind of a lasting arrangement .
hbg
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Oct, 2006 03:02 pm
xingu wrote:
ican

So there was no reason for us to invade Iraq. She had no WMD's. It mattered little if Saddam wanted sanctions lifted because wanting and getting are two different things.

There were three valid reasons for going into Iraq. Regardless of what were the Bush administration's reasons for invading Iraq, the three valid reasons were to stop the al Qaeda buildup in Iraq, remove al-Qaeda from Iraq, and establish a government of Iraq that would in future prohibit al-Qaeda sanctuary in Iraq.

The Bush administration's failure to accomplish these three objectives does not render them less valid. The problem is the validity of the Bush administation's choice of tactics for accomplishing these three objectives and not the validity of these three objectives.


Saddam was a counterweight to Iran. Saddam was fighting Shiite insurgents that were being armed and trained by Iran. Iraq main focus was on her principle enemy, Iran. With a no-fly zone in the north and south; being prevented from sending troops into Kurd territory and the threat of any of Iraq's armed forces being bombed to pieces in the south Iraq posed a threat to no one.

Saddam was not prevented by the no-fly zone from going into northeastern Iraq. The no-fly zone was not a no-go zone. This is emphasized by the three US requests to Saddam to extradite the leadership of that al-Qaeda contingent in Iraq, That contingent was established there in December 2001 and subsequently grew rapidly. Obviously, Saddam could not satisfy those US extradition requests without going into the area under the no-fly zone.

A close alliance to Al Qaeda is ridiculous. Saddam was a secular leader. Al Qaeda were religious fanatics. The two had a mutual distrust and dislike for one another. Religious fanatics hate secular people, both in the Muslim and Christian religion. If anything Al Qaead would have liked to see the overthrow of Saddam and its government replaced with a Teliban style of government. Instead they got a major training ground for their terrorist, thanks to Bush.

The Bush administration never claimed there was a close alliance between Saddam and al-Qaeda prior to 9/11. Well after 9/11 (October 16, 2002), the Bush administration claimed only that the Saddam regime was allowing al Qaeda sanctuary in northeastern Iraq.

Saddam was an asset for us.
Perhaps Saddam was an assest as a counter balance to Iran. But he wasn't an asset to the Iraqi people, killing almost 4,800 per month from January 1992 to December 2002.

The US has often been validly criticized for previously supporting totalitarian governmemts in the middle east to serve US objectives at the expense of middle eastern lives. We finally began to stop doing that with our invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. The people living under those totalitarian governents had rightly come to hate us.

...
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Oct, 2006 03:57 pm
IBC's Count of Civilians Killed in Iraq since 1/1/2003
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/

UPDATE OF IRAQ'S VIOLENT NON-COMBATANT DEATHS BY MONTH

January 2006 .... = 1267; Total since January 1st 03 = 1267 + 36,859 = 38126;
Feb 2006 .......... = 1287; Total since January 1st 03 = 1287 + 38126 = 39413;
March 2006 ....... = 1538; Total since January 1st 03 = 1538 + 39413 = 40951;
April 2006 ......... = 1287; Total since January 1st 03 = 1287 + 40951 = 42238;
May 2006 .......... = 1417; Total since January 1st 03 = 1417 + 42238 = 43655;
June 2006 ......... = 2089; Total since January 1st 03 = 2089 + 43655 = 45744;
July 2006 ........... = 1166; Total since January 1st 03 = 1166 + 45744 = 46910;
August 2006 ...... = 1132; Total since January 1st 03 = 1132 + 46910 = 48042;
September 2006 = 1302 = (651/15) x 30; Total since January 1st 2003 = 1302 + 48042 = 49344.


Estimates of Future Morgue Counts:
July = 1166 + 1000 = 2166 .............. 46910 + 1000 = 47910;
August = 1132 + 1000 = 2132 ......... 48042 + 1000 + 1000 = 50042;
September = 1032 + 1000 = 2032 ... 49344 + 1000 + 1000 + 1000 = 52344.


UPDATE OF VIOLENT NON-COMBATANT DEATHS IN IRAQ PER MONTH AND TOTALS

1,163 per month; .... 52,344 in 45 months 01/01/2003 to 09/30/2006.

4,738 per month; .. 625,424 in 132 months 01/01/1992 to 12/31/2002.
0 Replies
 
xingu
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Oct, 2006 05:32 pm
ican wrote:
Saddam was not prevented by the no-fly zone from going into northeastern Iraq. The no-fly zone was not a no-go zone. This is emphasized by the three US requests to Saddam to extradite the leadership of that al-Qaeda contingent in Iraq, That contingent was established there in December 2001 and subsequently grew rapidly. Obviously, Saddam could not satisfy those US extradition requests without going into the area under the no-fly zone.


ican wrote:
Perhaps Saddam was an assest as a counter balance to Iran. But he wasn't an asset to the Iraqi people, killing almost 4,800 per month from January 1992 to December 2002.

The US has often been validly criticized for previously supporting totalitarian governmemts in the middle east to serve US objectives at the expense of middle eastern lives. We finally began to stop doing that with our invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. The people living under those totalitarian governents had rightly come to hate us.


"There is none so blind as he who will not see,"
anonymous
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Oct, 2006 06:03 pm
xingu wrote:

...
"There is none so blind as he who will not see,"
anonymous

Listen, xingu, to anonymous. Anonymous is talking about you.


By the way Your blatant confession that you are unable to rationally dispute my arguments is accepted.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Oct, 2006 07:10 am
It seems to me for every single stated reason of invading Iraq and changing the regime, every single one has gotten worse instead of better. It has not made us safer, nor the Iraqis safer. We created the terrorist problem in Iraq because we are there, so they are there to make sure the Iraqi democracy (so called) fails. Also, the country is split in three ways with all them fighting and killing each other. There is still people being tortured in Iraq prisons, either by the US or Iraqi government. The infrastructure is a sad joke. Last but not least we have not made the area in the ME any better towards the stated US interest.

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/6/T/bush_warhuh.jpg

The answer in the case of Iraq is C.

Bush's 'Axis of Evil' Comes Back to Haunt United States

Quote:
Nearly five years after President Bush introduced the concept of an "axis of evil" comprising Iraq, Iran and North Korea, the administration has reached a crisis point with each nation: North Korea has claimed it conducted its first nuclear test, Iran refuses to halt its uranium-enrichment program, and Iraq appears to be tipping into a civil war 3 1/2 years after the U.S.-led invasion.

Each problem appears to feed on the others, making the stakes higher and requiring Bush and his advisers to make difficult calculations, analysts and U.S. officials said. The deteriorating situation in Iraq has undermined U.S. diplomatic credibility and limited the administration's military options, making rogue countries increasingly confident that they can act without serious consequences. Iran, meanwhile, will be watching closely the diplomatic fallout from North Korea's apparent test as a clue to how far it might go with its own nuclear program.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Oct, 2006 10:40 am
Seems that "Axis of evil" is rather fitting then, huh?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Oct, 2006 11:23 am
DEMOCRATS ARE PSYCHOTICS
Quote:

http://www.m-w.com
Main Entry: psy·cho·sis
Pronunciation: sI-'kO-s&s
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural psy·cho·ses -"sEz/
Etymology: New Latin
: fundamental derangement of the mind (as in schizophrenia) characterized by defective or lost contact with reality especially as evidenced by delusions, hallucinations, and disorganized speech and behavior


REPUBLICANS ARE NEUROTICS
Quote:

http://www.m-w.com
Main Entry: neu·ro·sis
Pronunciation: nu-'rO-s&s, nyu-
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural neu·ro·ses -"sEz/
Etymology: New Latin
: a mental and emotional disorder that affects only part of the personality, is accompanied by a less distorted perception of reality than in a psychosis, does not result in disturbance of the use of language, and is accompanied by various physical, physiological, and mental disturbances (as visceral symptoms, anxieties, or phobias)


Neither choice is tolerable. But psychotics are much less tolerable than neurotics.

I'll grit my teeth, hold my nose, and for the first time, vote a straight Republican ticket.
0 Replies
 
Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Oct, 2006 03:39 pm
One of our ammo dumps in Baghdad is on fire and exploding. Shocked
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 10 Oct, 2006 05:00 pm
McGentrix wrote:
Seems that "Axis of evil" is rather fitting then, huh?


Yea, rather a self fulfilling prophesy a bush specialty.

Quote:
BBC Four: Having been to all these countries, what is your take on the Axis of Evil?
BA: It's an absolute joke. In some places, Iran for example, it's almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. You've got a tiny group of people there, Ayatollah Khomeini's old guard, who control the military, the police and the law courts but are hated by at least 90% of the population.

Most people would love to see these guys go but then George Bush starts saying, "Iran is evil and sponsors terrorism". That old guard can say they were right all along, you can't have dialogue with America, they're imperialist, come with us, fight imperialism. They have actually gained a bit of support.


source
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 06:21 am
Study estimates 600,000 Iraqis dead by violence

Quote:
More than 600,000 Iraqis have died by violence since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, according to a study released today by researchers at Johns Hopkins University.
The figure is based on surveys of households throughout most of the country. It vastly exceeds estimates cited by the Iraqi government, the United Nations, aid and anti-war groups, and President Bush.

The new estimate was immediately challenged by the Pentagon. Lt. Col. Mark Bellesteros, a Pentagon spokesman, said the Iraqi government "would be in a better position ... to provide more accurate information on deaths in Iraq."

Frederick Jones, a spokesman for the National Security Council said "many experts" found that a 2004 study by the same group "wildly inflated the findings." That study said the war had caused 100,000 Iraqi deaths.

"This study appears to be equally flawed," he said. The new study said the deaths have resulted from coalition military activity, crime and religious violence.

Iraq's Health Ministry estimated 50,000 violent deaths since the war began, through June. Last December, President Bush put the figure at 30,000. The Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, estimated the death toll at 60,000.

Overall, the analysis estimates that 2.5% of the Iraqi population has died as a result of the conflict.

The research relied on random sampling of 1,800 Iraqi households by researchers from the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and the School of Medicine at Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. Based on deaths suffered by those households, analysts calculated an average of about 600 deaths a day since the invasion.

"I think it's perfectly plausible," said the study's lead author, Gilbert Burnham, professor of international health at Johns Hopkins.

Then-British foreign secretary Jack Straw was among those who criticized the earlier study.

This time the researchers doubled the size of their random survey. In 92% of the homes in which residents reported deaths, families had death certificates, they said.

Beyond violent deaths, the study said about 53,000 deaths from other causes, such as accident and illness, were attributable to the war because of its effect on health care.

Gunfire was the leading cause of violent death; car bomb fatalities are rising, the study said.

James Fearon, a Stanford University political scientist and Iraq expert, said, "One thing (the study may) certainly do is confirm the view that there is a very, very serious civil war going in Iraq."


comments on the study by juan cole
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 10:13 am
McGentrix wrote:
Seems that "Axis of evil" is rather fitting then, huh?


Axis of evil, schmaxis of evil

good post, revel.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 11:14 am
The goalposts begin to move

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-10-11-troops-iraq_x.htm?csp=34

Quote:


Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 11:58 am
of no particular import

Quote:
An estimated 655,000 Iraqis have died since 2003 who might still be alive but for the US-led invasion, according to a survey by a US university.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 12:30 pm
What's good about it McTag?
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 12:30 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
of no particular import

Quote:
An estimated 655,000 Iraqis have died since 2003 who might still be alive but for the US-led invasion, according to a survey by a US university.


You are quite correct.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 12:42 pm
revel wrote:

...
Study estimates 600,000 Iraqis dead by violence

Quote:
More than 600,000 Iraqis have died by violence since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, according to a study released today by researchers at Johns Hopkins University.
The figure is based on surveys of households throughout most of the country. It vastly exceeds estimates cited by the Iraqi government, the United Nations, aid and anti-war groups, and President Bush.

The new estimate was immediately challenged by the Pentagon. Lt. Col. Mark Bellesteros, a Pentagon spokesman, said the Iraqi government "would be in a better position ... to provide more accurate information on deaths in Iraq."
...

Revel, that's more pseudology (i.e., falsities or lies)

Calculated from data obtained from Brittannica & IBC
IRAQ, January 2003 thru September 2006
Total Deaths = 573,000.
Total Non-violent Deaths = 520,000.
Total Violent Deaths = 53,000.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 12:46 pm
Right, right. Can't show how they are lying, just assert that they are lying.

I haven't forgotten the other thing, btw, just been really busy this week. I'll get around to it.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 01:29 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Right, right. Can't show how they are lying, just assert that they are lying.


Again, you accuse me of what you did by alleging I: "Can't show how they are lying." You failed to show: that I didn't show what I claimed to show.

I did show how they are pseudologizing, by showing that according to Britannica, Iraq total deaths January 2003 thru September 2006 were 573,000 or 27,000 less than the pseudological estimate of 600,000 Iraq violent deaths.

I included the total of IBC counts of Iraq violent deaths for the same period of 53,000--adding my total estimate (i.e., 3,000) of not yet presented IBC morgue counts for July, August, and September.

That results in the computation of 573,000 - 53,000 = 520,000 total Iraq non-violent deaths.


"The other thing"


ican711nm wrote:
Cycloptichorn, please outline the tactics neccessary to accomplish your plan.


Cycloptichorn wrote:

Posted: Fri Oct 06, 2006 5:09 pm Post: 2301067 -
...
Thanks. I'll begin my next phase of this discussion with another question to you: Do you believe that killing innocents creates more insurgents and terrorists, or not?
Cycloptichorn


ican711nm wrote:
First, answer my question that I posted immediately preceding this one of yours. My answer to this question of yours may depend on your answer to my preceding question.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 11 Oct, 2006 04:45 pm
you may want to read what CNN reported today .
i watched the CNN noonhour newscast where the number of 650,000 war deaths was announced .
john zogby (of zogby international , the pollster used by reuters news )was interviewed during the newscast and asked to give his opinion on the accuracy of the estimate .
he stated that he had reviewed the study method and its result and felt quite confident that the figure given was about 95% accurate . in his words , that's as close as any estimate can ever be .
he said that the sample size of 1,800 was actually higher than usual in doing such statistical work .
he also stated that earlier figures of about 50,000 iraqi war death were 'absolute nonsense ' .
the CNN report is well annotated and shows how the results were arrived at .
you may find the report quite interesting .
hbg


...IRAQI WAR DEATH AT 6000,000 PLUS...
0 Replies
 
 

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