hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Oct, 2007 01:23 pm
during the last ten days we finally had about 1 - 2 inches of rain and everything greened up quickly .
yesterday had to turn the furnace on in the morning for about ten minutes - turned out to be a gorgeous sunny day .
so we cleaned up the garden , gave the lawn a quick cut , trimmed back the shrubs and bushes - including the raspberry bushes where we picked the last berries of the season !
today it's grey and damp - but more sunshine promised for sunday !!!
hbg
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Oct, 2007 01:38 pm
eastern lake ontario :
still some flowers in the garden - but the colours are fading fast !
hbg

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/7159/falloctober008fd4.jpg
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Oct, 2007 09:32 am
Interesting article.

from http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/gore-gets-a-cold-shoulder/2007/10/13/1191696238792.html

Quote:
Gore gets a cold shoulder
Steve Lytte
October 14, 2007



ONE of the world's foremost meteorologists has called the theory that helped Al Gore share the Nobel Peace Prize "ridiculous" and the product of "people who don't understand how the atmosphere works".

Dr William Gray, a pioneer in the science of seasonal hurricane forecasts, told a packed lecture hall at the University of North Carolina that humans were not responsible for the warming of the earth.

His comments came on the same day that the Nobel committee honoured Mr Gore for his work in support of the link between humans and global warming.

"We're brainwashing our children," said Dr Gray, 78, a long-time professor at Colorado State University. "They're going to the Gore movie [An Inconvenient Truth] and being fed all this. It's ridiculous."

At his first appearance since the award was announced in Oslo, Mr Gore said: "We have to quickly find a way to change the world's consciousness about exactly what we're facing."

Mr Gore shared the Nobel prize with the United Nations climate panel for their work in helping to galvanise international action against global warming.

But Dr Gray, whose annual forecasts of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes are widely publicised, said a natural cycle of ocean water temperatures - related to the amount of salt in ocean water - was responsible for the global warming that he acknowledges has taken place.

However, he said, that same cycle meant a period of cooling would begin soon and last for several years.

"We'll look back on all of this in 10 or 15 years and realise how foolish it was," Dr Gray said.

During his speech to a crowd of about 300 that included meteorology students and a host of professional meteorologists, Dr Gray also said those who had linked global warming to the increased number of hurricanes in recent years were in error.

He cited statistics showing there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperatures, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed.

"The human impact on the atmosphere is simply too small to have a major effect on global temperatures," Dr Gray said.

He said his beliefs had made him an outsider in popular science.

"It bothers me that my fellow scientists are not speaking out against something they know is wrong," he said. "But they also know that they'd never get any grants if they spoke out. I don't care about grants."
0 Replies
 
neko nomad
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Oct, 2007 09:33 pm
Gore's work most likely doesn't advance science, but that's not the achievement the Peace prize is meant to honor.

Good for Al.
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 09:45 am
neko nomad wrote:
Gore's work most likely doesn't advance science, .


That's an understatement.

Hey, I wonder why most of the planets in our solar system are also 'warming'.

Is it the exhaust gas from all those space probes we've sent up?

I mean, it's got to be our fault, right?
0 Replies
 
TheCorrectResponse
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 10:02 am
Not to interrupt a thread that is about a different subject entirely. But since few will "play" with RL anymore and he has come here. I just thought a little science was in order.

Note: This post is NOT for RL as he gets HIS scientific information through 'word of knowledge' from God.

For the others; Mars is often used as an example of 'another planet that is warming up'. Here is the real story.

P.S. Information below is not my text it is from climate scientists.

Recently, there have been some suggestions that "global warming" has been observed on Mars (e.g. here). These are based on observations of regional change around the South Polar Cap, but seem to have been extended into a "global" change, and used by some to infer an external common mechanism for global warming on Earth and Mars (e.g. here and here). But this is incorrect reasoning and based on faulty understanding of the data.
A couple of basic issues first : the Martian year is about 2 Earth years (687 days). Currently it is late winter in Mars's northern hemisphere, so late summer in the southern hemisphere. Martian eccentricity is about 0.1 - over 5 times larger than Earth's, so the insolation (INcoming SOLar radiATION) variation over the orbit is substantial, and contributes significantly more to seasonality than on the Earth, although Mars's obliquity (the angle of its spin axis to the orbital plane) still dominates the seasons. The alignment of obliquity and eccentricity due to precession is a much stronger effect than for the Earth, leading to "great" summers and winters on time scales of tens of thousands of years (the precessional period is 170,000 years). Since Mars has no oceans and a thin atmosphere, the thermal inertia is low, and Martian climate is easily perturbed by external influences, including solar variations. However, solar irradiance is now well measured by satellite and has been declining slightly over the last few years as it moves towards a solar minimum.
So what is causing Martian climate change now? Mars has a relatively well studied climate, going back to measurements made by Viking, and continued with the current series of orbiters, such as the Mars Global Surveyor. Complementing the measurements, NASA has a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM) based at NASA Ames. (NB. There is a good "general reader" review of modeling the Martian atmosphere by Stephen R Lewis in Astronomy and Geophysics, volume 44 issue 4. pages 6-14.)
Globally, the mean temperature of the Martian atmosphere is particularly sensitive to the strength and duration of hemispheric dust storms, (see for example here and here). Large scale dust storms change the atmospheric opacity and convection; as always when comparing mean temperatures, the altitude at which the measurement is made matters, but to the extent it is sensible to speak of a mean temperature for Mars, the evidence is for significant cooling from the 1970's, when Viking made measurements, compared to current temperatures. However, this is essentially due to large scale dust storms that were common back then, compared to a lower level of storminess now. The mean temperature on Mars, averaged over the Martian year can change by many degrees from year to year, depending on how active large scale dust storms are.
In 2001, Malin et al published a short article in Science (subscription required) discussing MGS data showing a rapid shrinkage of the South Polar Cap. Recently, the MGS team had a press release discussing more recent data showing the trend had continued. MGS 2001 press release MGS 2005 press release. The shrinkage of the Martian South Polar Cap is almost certainly a regional climate change, and is not any indication of global warming trends in the Martian atmosphere. Colaprete et al in Nature 2005 (subscription required) showed, using the Mars GCM, that the south polar climate is unstable due to the peculiar topography near the pole, and the current configuration is on the instability border; we therefore expect to see rapid changes in ice cover as the regional climate transits between the unstable states.
Thus inferring global warming from a 3 Martian year regional trend is unwarranted. The observed regional changes in south polar ice cover are almost certainly due to a regional climate transition, not a global phenomenon, and are demonstrably unrelated to external forcing. There is a slight irony in people rushing to claim that the glacier changes on Mars are a sure sign of global warming, while not being swayed by the much more persuasive analogous phenomena here on EarthÂ…
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 11:04 am
from http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mars_ice-age_031208.html

Quote:
Mars Emerging from Ice Age, Data Suggest
By SPACE.com

posted: 03:00 pm ET
08 December 2003

Scientists have suspected in recent years that Mars might be undergoing some sort of global warming. New data points to the possibility it is emerging from an ice age.

NASA's Mars Odyssey orbiter has been surveying the planet for nearly a full Martian year now, and it has spotted seasonal changes like the advance and retreat of polar ice. It's also gathering data of a possible longer trend.

There appears to be too much frozen water at low-latitude regions -- away from the frigid poles -- given the current climate of Mars. The situation is not in equilibrium, said William Feldman of the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

"One explanation could be that Mars is just coming out of an ice age," Feldman said. "In some low-latitude areas, the ice has already dissipated. In others, that process is slower and hasn't reached an equilibrium yet. Those areas are like the patches of snow you sometimes see persisting in protected spots long after the last snowfall of the winter."

Frozen water makes up as much as 10 percent of the top 3 feet (1 meter) of surface material in some regions close to the equator. Dust deposits may be covering and insulating the lingering ice, Feldman said.

Feldman is the lead scientist for an Odyssey instrument that assesses water content indirectly through measurements of neutron emissions. He and other Odyssey scientists described their recent findings today at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

"Odyssey is giving us indications of recent global climate change in Mars," said Jeffrey Plaut, project scientist for the mission at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

High latitude regions of Mars have layers with differing ice content within the top 20 inches (half-meter) or so of the surface, researchers conclude from mapping of hydrogen abundance based on gamma-ray emissions.

"A model that fits the data has three layers near the surface," said William Boynton of the University of Arizona, Tucson, team leader for the gamma-ray spectrometer instrument on Odyssey. "The very top layer would be dry, with no ice. The next layer would contain ice in the pore spaces between grains of soil. Beneath that would be a very ice-rich layer, 60 to nearly 100 percent water ice."

Boynton interprets the iciest layer as a deposit of snow or frost, mixed with a little windblown dust, from an era when the climate was colder than nowadays. The middle layer could be the result of changes brought in a warmer era, when ice down to a certain depth dissipated into the atmosphere. The dust left behind collapsed into a soil layer with limited pore space for returning ice.

More study is needed to determine for sure what's going on.

Other Odyssey instruments are providing other pieces of the puzzle. Images from the orbiter's camera system have been combined into the highest resolution complete map ever made of Mars' south polar region.

"We can now accurately count craters in the layered materials of the polar regions to get an idea how old they are," said Phil Christensen of Arizona State University, Tempe, principal investigator for the camera system.

Temperature information from the camera system's infrared imaging has produced a surprise about dark patches that dot bright expanses of seasonal carbon-dioxide ice.

"Those dark features look like places where the ice has gone away, but thermal infrared maps show that even the dark areas have temperatures so low they must be carbon-dioxide ice." Christensen said. "One possibility is that the ice is clear in these areas and we're seeing down through the ice to features underneath."


from http://www.mos.org/cst-archive/article/80/9.html

Quote:
Global Warming on Mars?

A study of the ice caps on Mars may show that the red planet is experiencing a warming trend.

After decades of thinking that the ice caps on Mars were mostly carbon dioxide (dry ice), planetary geologists are starting to think that those caps may be mostly fresh water ice instead.

Caltech planetary scientists have been keeping a close eye on the dozens of deep, wide pits in the southern martian ice caps. These pits have been growing larger every year, but they never get any deeper.

The scientists believe this means that there is a layer of dry ice that is evaporating off of a thicker layer of water ice. The yearly increases in evaporation may be caused by a global warming trend happening on Mars.

If both Mars and Earth are experiencing global warming, then perhaps there is a larger phenomenon going on in the Solar System that is causing their global climates to change.



from http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060504_red_jr.html

Quote:
New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change


from http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2004/04/21_jupiter.shtml

Quote:
Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear

By Sarah Yang, Media Relations | 21 April 2004

BERKELEY - If a University of California, Berkeley, physicist's vision of Jupiter is correct, the giant planet will be in for a major global temperature shift over the next decade as most of its large vortices disappear.

But fans of the Great Red Spot can rest easy. The most famous of Jupiter's vortices - which are often compared to Earth's hurricanes - will stay put, largely because of its location near the planet's equator, says Philip Marcus, a professor at UC Berkeley's Department of Mechanical Engineering.

Using whirlpools and eddies for comparison, Marcus bases his forecast on principles learned in junior-level fluid dynamics and on the observation that many of Jupiter's vortices are literally vanishing into thin air.

"I predict that due to the loss of these atmospheric whirlpools, the average temperature on Jupiter will change by as much as 10 degrees Celsius, getting warmer near the equator and cooler at the poles," says Marcus. "This global shift in temperature will cause the jet streams to become unstable and thereby spawn new vortices. It's an event that even backyard astronomers will be able to witness."

According to Marcus, the imminent changes signal the end of Jupiter's current 70-year climate cycle. His surprising predictions are published in the April 22 issue of the journal Nature.

Jupiter's stormy atmosphere has a dozen or so jet streams that travel in alternating directions of east and west, and that can clock speeds greater than 330 miles per hour. As on Earth, vortices on Jupiter that rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere are considered anticyclones, while those that spin counterclockwise are cyclones. The opposite is true in the southern hemisphere, where clockwise vortices are cyclones and counterclockwise spinners are anticyclones.

The Great Red Spot, located in the southern hemisphere, holds title as Jupiter's largest anticyclone; spanning 12,500 miles wide, it is large enough to swallow Earth two to three times over.

Unlike the cyclonic storms on Jupiter, Earth's hurricanes and storms are associated with low-pressure systems and dissipate after days or weeks. The Great Red Spot, in comparison, is a high-pressure system that has been stable for more than 300 years, and shows no signs of slowing down.

About 20 years ago, Marcus developed a computer model showing how the Great Red Spot emerged out of and endured in the chaotic turbulence of Jupiter's atmosphere. His efforts to explain the dynamics governing it and other vortices on Jupiter led to his current projection of the planet's impending climate change.

He says the current 70-year cycle began with the formation of three distinct anticyclones - the White Ovals - that developed south of the Great Red Spot in 1939. "The birth of the White Ovals was seen through telescopes on Earth," he says. "I believe we're in for a similar treat within the next 10 years."

Marcus says the first stage of the climate cycle involves the formation of vortex streets which straddle the westward jet streams. Anticyclones form on one side of the street, while cyclones form on the other side, with no two vortices rotating in the same direction directly adjacent to each other.

Most of the vortices slowly decay with turbulence. By stage two of the cycle, some vortices become weak enough to get trapped in the occasional troughs, or Rossby waves, that form in the jet stream. Multiple vortices can get caught in the same trough. When they do, they travel bunched together, and turbulence can easily make them merge. When the vortices are weak, trapping and merging continues until only one pair is left on each vortex street.

The noted disappearance of two White Ovals, one in 1997 or 1998 and a second in 2000, exemplified the merging of the vortices in stage two, and as such, signaled the "beginning of the end" of Jupiter's current climate cycle, says Marcus.

Why would the merger of vortices affect global temperature? Marcus says the relatively uniform temperature of Jupiter - where the temperatures at the poles are nearly the same as they are at the equator - is due to the chaotic mixing of heat and airflow from the vortices.

"If you knock out a whole row of vortices, you stop all the mixing of heat at that latitude," says Marcus. "This creates a big wall and prevents the transport of heat from the equator to the poles."

Once enough vortices are gone, the planet's atmosphere will warm at the equator and cool at the poles by as much as 10 degrees Celsius in each region, which is stage three of the climate cycle.

This temperature change destabilizes the jet streams, which will react by becoming wavy. The waves steepen and break up, like they do at the beach, but they then roll up into new large vortices in the cycle's fourth stage. In the fifth and final stage of the climate cycle, the new vortices decrease in size, and they settle into the vortex streets to begin a new cycle.

The weakening of the vortices is due to turbulence and happens gradually over time. It takes about half a century for newly formed vortices to gradually shrink down enough to be caught up in a jet stream trough, says Marcus.

Fortunately, the Great Red Spot's proximity to the equator saves it from destruction. Unlike Jupiter's other vortices, the Great Red Spot survives by "eating" its neighboring anticyclones, says Marcus.

Marcus notes that his theory of Jupiter's climate cycle relies on the existence of a roughly equal number of cyclones and anticyclones on the planet.

Since the telltale signs of vortices are the clouds they create, it was easy to miss the presence of long-lived cyclones, says Marcus. He explains that unlike an anticyclone's distinct spot, cyclones create patterns of filamentary clouds that are less clearly defined.

"On the face of it, it is easy to think that Jupiter is dominated by anticyclones because their spinning clouds show up clearly as bull's-eyes," says Marcus.

In the paper in Nature, Marcus presents a computer simulation showing that the warm center and cooler perimeter of a cyclone creates the appearance of the filamentary clouds. In contrast, anticyclones have cold centers and warmer perimeters. Ice crystals that form in the anticyclone's center swell up and move to the sides where they melt, creating a darker swirl surrounding a lighter colored center.

Marcus approaches the study of planetary atmospheres from the untraditional viewpoint of a fluid dynamicist. "I'm basing my predictions on the relatively simple laws of vortex dynamics instead of using voluminous amounts of data or complex atmospheric models," says Marcus.

Marcus says the lesson of Jupiter's climate could be that small disturbances can cause global changes. However, he cautions against applying the same model to Earth's climate, which is influenced by many different factors, both natural and manmade.

"Still, it's important to have different 'labs' for climate," says Marcus. "Studying other worlds helps us better understand our own, even if they are not directly analogous."

Marcus's research is supported by grants from the NASA Origins Program, the National Science Foundation Astronomy and Plasma Physics Programs and the Los Alamos National Laboratory.


from http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/pluto_warming_021009.html

Quote:
Global Warming on Pluto Puzzles Scientists
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 01:25 pm ET
09 October 2002

In what is largely a reversal of an August announcement, astronomers today said Pluto is undergoing global warming in its thin atmosphere even as it moves farther from the Sun on its long, odd-shaped orbit.

Pluto's atmospheric pressure has tripled over the past 14 years, indicating a stark temperature rise, the researchers said. The change is likely a seasonal event, much as seasons on Earth change as the hemispheres alter their inclination to the Sun during the planet's annual orbit.

They suspect the average surface temperature increased about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, or slightly less than 2 degrees Celsius.

Pluto remains a mysterious world whose secrets are no so easily explained, however. The warming could be fueled by some sort of eruptive activity on the small planet, one astronomer speculated.

The increasing temperatures are more likely explained by two simple facts: Pluto's highly elliptical orbit significantly changes the planet's distance from the Sun during its long "year," which lasts 248 Earth years; and unlike most of the planets, Pluto's axis is nearly in line with the orbital plane, tipped 122 degrees. Earth's axis is tilted 23.5 degrees.

Though Pluto was closest to the Sun in 1989, a warming trend 13 years later does not surprise David Tholen, a University of Hawaii astronomer involved in the discovery.

"It takes time for materials to warm up and cool off, which is why the hottest part of the day on Earth is usually around 2 or 3 p.m. rather than local noon," Tholen said. "This warming trend on Pluto could easily last for another 13 years."

Stellar observations

The conclusion is based on data gathered during a chance passage of Pluto in front of a distant star as seen from Earth. Such events, called occultations, are rare, but two of them occurred this summer.

In the occultations, which are like eclipses, astronomers examined starlight as it passed through Pluto's tenuous atmosphere just before the planet blotted out the light.

The first occultation, in July, yielded limited data because of terrestrial cloud cover above key telescopes. Marc Buie, an astronomer at Lowell Observatory, scrambled to observe the event from northern Chile using portable 14-inch (0.35-meter) telescope. Afterward, Buie said he was baffled by what seemed to be global cooling of Pluto's atmosphere punctuated by some surface warming.

Then on Aug. 20, Pluto passed in front of a different star. The latter event provided much better data captured by eight large telescopes and seems to clarify and mostly reverse the earlier findings.

The results were compared to studies from 1988, the last time Pluto was observed eclipsing a star.

James Elliot of MIT led a team of astronomers who coordinated their observations and presented the findings today at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's (AAS) Division for Planetary Sciences in Birmingham, Ala.

Elliot said the Aug. 20 occultation was the first that allowed such a deep probing of the composition, pressure and the always-frigid temperature of Pluto's atmosphere, which ranges from -391 to -274 degrees Fahrenheit (-235 to -170 degrees Celsius).

Volcanoes on Pluto?

Elliot hinted at the possibility of another factor fueling Pluto's warming trend.

He compared Pluto to Triton, a moon of Neptune. Both have atmospheres made mostly of nitrogen. In 1997, Triton occulted a star and astronomers found that its atmosphere had warmed since the last observations were made in 1989 during the Voyager mission. Back then, Voyager found dark material rising above Triton, indicating possible eruptive activity.

"There could be more massive activity on Pluto, since the changes observed in Pluto's atmosphere are much more severe," Elliot said. "The change observed on Triton was subtle. Pluto's changes are not subtle."

There is no firm evidence that Pluto is volcanically active, but neither is there evidence to rule out that possibility. Even the Hubble Space Telescope can barely make out Pluto's surface.

Elliot added that the process affecting Pluto's temperature is complex. "We just don't know what is causing these effects," he said.

Let's go there

Elliot and others believe this poor understanding of our solar system's tiniest planet is grounds for sending a robot to investigate. Pluto is the only planet not visited by a spacecraft.

NASA has shelved a mission that would explore Pluto and the Kuiper Belt of frozen objects in which it resides.

Congress, however, appears to view the mission as worthy of some funds. A House budget panel this week followed the lead of the Senate in approving $105 million for the mission. If final approval comes, NASA would be compelled to undertake the project.

Interestingly, while Pluto's atmosphere has been growing warmer in recent years, astronomers have argued that a Pluto mission must launch by 2006, lest it miss the opportunity to study Pluto's atmosphere before it completely freezes out for the winter.

Tentative mission plans call for a robotic probe that would not reach Pluto for several years, making a flyby sometime prior to 2020 prior to investigating other objects deeper in the solar system.

Meanwhile, astronomers are looking forward to a space telescope called SOFIA, slated to begin operations in 2004. SOFIA will carry an instrument designed specifically to observe occultations and is expected to be employed when Pluto passes in front of other stars in coming years.

The Pluto observations this summer were funded by NASA, the Research Corporation and the National Science Foundation. Observations were made using the telescopes at the Mauna Kea Observatory, Haleakala, Lick Observatory, Lowell Observatory and the Palomar Observatory.


from http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2002/pluto.html

Quote:
Pluto is undergoing global warming, researchers find

October 9, 2002

BIRMINGHAM, Ala.--Pluto is undergoing global warming, as evidenced by a three-fold increase in the planet's atmospheric pressure during the past 14 years, a team of astronomers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Williams College, the University of Hawaii, Lowell Observatory and Cornell University announced in a press conference today at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's (AAS) Division for Planetary Sciences in Birmingham, AL.

The team, led by James Elliot, professor of planetary astronomy at MIT and director of MIT's Wallace Observatory, made this finding by watching the dimming of a star when Pluto passed in front of it Aug. 20. The team carried out observations using eight telescopes at Mauna Kea Observatory, Haleakala, Lick Observatory, Lowell Observatory and Palomar Observatory. Data were successfully recorded at all sites.

An earlier attempt to observe an occultation of Pluto on July 19 in Chile was not highly successful. Observations were made from only two sites with small telescopes because the giant telescopes and other small telescopes involved lost out to bad weather or from being in the wrong location that day. These two occultations were the first to be successfully observed for Pluto since 1988.

Elliot said the new results have surprised the observers, who as recently as July thought that Pluto's atmosphere may be cooling. "From the July data, we knew that Pluto's atmosphere had changed since 1988, but the August data allowed us to probe much more deeply into Pluto's atmosphere and have given us a more accurate picture of the changes that have occurred," he said.

Jay Pasachoff, an astronomy professor at Williams College, said that Pluto's global warming was "likely not connected with that of the Earth. The major way they could be connected is if the warming was caused by a large increase in sunlight. But the solar constant--the amount of sunlight received each second--is carefully monitored by spacecraft, and we know the sun's output is much too steady to be changing the temperature of Pluto."

Pluto's orbit is much more elliptical than that of the other planets, and its rotational axis is tipped by a large angle relative to its orbit. Both factors could contribute to drastic seasonal changes.

Since 1989, for example, the sun's position in Pluto's sky has changed by more than the corresponding change on the Earth that causes the difference between winter and spring. Pluto's atmospheric temperature varies between around minus 235 and minus 170 degrees Celsius, depending on the altitude above the surface. The main gas in Pluto's atmosphere is nitrogen, and Pluto has nitrogen ice on its surface that can evaporate into the atmosphere when it gets warmer, causing an increase in surface pressure. If the observed increase in the atmosphere also applies to the surface pressure--which is likely the case--this means that the average surface temperature of the nitrogen ice on Pluto has increased slightly less than 2 degrees Celsius over the past 14 years.

Marc Buie, an astronomer at Lowell Observatory, has been measuring the amount of sunlight reflected by Pluto. "The pressure increase can be explained if the average amount of sunlight reflected by the surface has decreased, which means that more heat is absorbed from the sun," he said. "This could be the reason that the pressure has been pumped up."

David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii who measured the size of Pluto in the late 1980s using a series of occultations and eclipses involving Pluto's satellite, noted that even though Pluto was closest to the sun in 1989, a warming trend 13 years later shouldn't be unexpected. "It takes time for materials to warm up and cool off, which is why the hottest part of the day on Earth is usually around 2 or 3 p.m. rather than local noon, when sunlight is the most intense," Tholen said. Because Pluto's year is equal to about 250 Earth years, 13 years after Pluto's closest approach to the Sun is like 1:15 p.m. on Earth. "This warming trend on Pluto could easily last for another 13 years," Tholen estimated.

Pluto and Neptune's largest moon, Triton, are presently about the same distance from the sun, and each has a predominantly nitrogen atmosphere (with a surface pressure 100,000 times less than that on Earth), so one might expect similar processes to be occurring on these two bodies.

A 1997 occultation of a star by Triton revealed that its surface had warmed since the Voyager spacecraft first explored it in 1989. On Triton, "Voyager saw dark material rising up as much as 12 km above the surface, indicating some kind of eruptive activity," Elliot said. "There could be more massive activity on Pluto, since the changes observed in Pluto's atmosphere are much more severe. The change observed on Triton was subtle. Pluto's changes are not subtle."

Researchers study faraway objects through occultations--eclipse-like events in which a body (Pluto in this case) passes in front of a star, blocking the star's light from view. By recording the dimming of the starlight over time, astronomers can calculate the density, pressure and temperature of Pluto's atmosphere. Observing two or more occultations at different times provides researchers with information about changes in the planet's atmosphere. The structure and temperature of Pluto's atmosphere was first determined during an occultation in 1988. Pluto's brief pass in front of a different star on July 19 led researchers to believe that a drastic atmospheric change was under way, but it was unclear whether the atmosphere was warming up or cooling down.

The data resulting from this occultation, when Pluto passed in front of a star known as P131.1, led to the current results. "This is the first time that an occultation has allowed us to probe so deeply into Pluto's atmosphere with a large telescope, which gives a high spatial resolution of a few kilometers," Elliot said.

From MIT, in addition to Elliot, researchers involved were physics seniors Katie Carbonari, Erica McEvoy and Alison Klesman; Kelly Clancy, technical assistant in earth, atmospheric and planetary sciences (EAPS); EAPS graduate student Susan Kern, MIT graduate Joyance Meechai (S.B. 2000); David Osip, EAPS research scientist; Michael Person, EAPS graduate student; and aeronatucs and astronautics junior Shen Qu.

NASA is still deciding whether to send a spacecraft to Pluto, the only planet not yet observed at close range. The Pluto-Kuiper Belt mission in the New Horizons Program, if approved, would be launched in 2006 and would reach Pluto 10 years later. This mission will seek to answer questions about the surfaces, atmospheres, interiors and space environments of the solar system's outermost objects, including Pluto and its moon, Charon.

Researchers are looking forward to observing additional Pluto occultations in the years before the Pluto-Kuiper mission flies by Pluto. Of particular interest is the prospect of using SOFIA, a 2.5-meter airborne telescope being built by NASA in collaboration with the German space agency, for Pluto-occultation events when it begins operating in 2004. Edward Dunham, who leads the occultation effort at Lowell Observatory, also is leading a team that is building HIPO, a SOFIA instrument designed specifically to observe occultations. The combination of HIPO and SOFIA will provide very high-quality data on a much more frequent basis than is possible using ground-based telescopes alone.

"This is a very complex process, and we just don't know what is causing these effects" on Pluto's surface, Elliot said. "That's why you need to send a mission."

This work is funded by Research Corporation, the National Science Foundation, and NASA's Planetary Astronomy Program
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 11:07 am
It's sunny and nice here in New Hampshire. The trees are changing color, the air is crisp, the mosquitos and deerflies are all gone and there are piles of pumpkins everywhere. Smile
0 Replies
 
TheCorrectResponse
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 11:22 am
If you will read the articles closely instead of the headlines you will see for example that in the pluto article
Quote:
The change is likely a seasonal event, much as seasons on Earth change as the hemispheres alter their inclination to the Sun during the planet's annual orbit.


This is not the type of global warming we are talking about on Earth.

I could go on with each but there would be little use as this fits your beliefs. I wonder if the editors who write the titles but not the articles know how such wording brings joy to the creationists but doesn't do much to summarize the information in the articles.

As the last line of the article I posted asks: If you don't believe in global warming as a trend on Earth let alone a man made trend, if you don't agree with just about everything astronomers say. Why would you believe the OTHER planets in the solar system are warming?

They can't get it right here where the atmosphere has been studied for over 100 years with tons of data but you have no trouble accepting Pluto's temperature is increasing (probably for seasonal reasons) when its billions of miles away and we haven't even sent a probe there yet?
0 Replies
 
TheCorrectResponse
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 11:23 am
Sorry ROS I'll let the rest slide on this post, excuse me! Smile
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 11:38 am
TheCorrectResponse wrote:
If you will read the articles closely instead of the headlines you will see for example that in the pluto article
Quote:
The change is likely a seasonal event, much as seasons on Earth change as the hemispheres alter their inclination to the Sun during the planet's annual orbit.


This is not the type of global warming we are talking about on Earth.

I could go on with each but there would be little use as this fits your beliefs. I wonder if the editors who write the titles but not the articles know how such wording brings joy to the creationists but doesn't do much to summarize the information in the articles.

As the last line of the article I posted asks: If you don't believe in global warming as a trend on Earth let alone a man made trend, if you don't agree with just about everything astronomers say. Why would you believe the OTHER planets in the solar system are warming?

They can't get it right here where the atmosphere has been studied for over 100 years with tons of data but you have no trouble accepting Pluto's temperature is increasing (probably for seasonal reasons) when its billions of miles away and we haven't even sent a probe there yet?


Do you think that the temperature data from the first half of the 20th century is as accurate as the data for the last few decades of the 20th century?

Was there any increase in accuracy of instrumentation, or in the worldwide standardization of practices regarding gathering and recording weather data?
0 Replies
 
TheCorrectResponse
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 11:46 am
I don't even consider it as all scientists are liars and conspirators and don't want to mess up this thread further. I regularly observe the planets...and YOU?


The weather is been beautiful in the great lakes. Unseasonably warm. Just waiting for the leaves to change, then top down and out in the country. 73 for a high today.
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 12:15 pm
Interesting article. A little dated, but cool.

In the midst of 'global warming', we have reports of record cold, with an oft unmentioned effect on ozone.

Quote:
Brussels, 31 January 2005

Record cold winter may increase ozone hole over North Europe
European scientists confirmed that Arctic high atmosphere is reaching the lowest ever temperatures this winter, warning that destruction of the protective ozone layer is substantially increased under very cold conditions. First signs of ozone loss have already been detected. The ozone layer is located in the so called stratosphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere, at an altitude of about 8 km in the Poles, and its function is to protect the earth's surface from harmful solar UV radiation. More than 170 countries have ratified the Montreal Protocol, an environmental treaty established in 1987 to protect the ozone layer. Should further cooling of the Arctic stratosphere occur, increasing ozone losses can be expected for the next couple of decades. A hole in the ozone layer can lead to intensified UV harmful radiation affecting inhabited Polar regions and Scandinavia, possibly down to central Europe. This could have consequences for human health (increased cases of skin cancer) as well as for biodiversity.

"The Arctic has experienced an extremely harsh winter. The first signs of ozone loss have now been observed, and large ozone losses are expected to occur if the cold conditions persist", says European Commissioner for Science and Research Janez Potočnik...................


from http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/05/112&format=HTML&aged=1&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

More fun.

Quote:
SOUTH POLE STATION ANTARCTICA. YEAR 2000 CLIMATE SUMMARY.
Temperature:

Avg temp................ -50.3(C)/-58.5(F)
Departure from normal... -0.8(C)/-1.4(F)




from http://astro.uchicago.edu/home/web/gd1/2000climate.html


Quote:
Annual Climate Summary for 2001

South Pole Station, Antarctica

Temperature:

Average temp............. -49.8C/-57.6F

Departure from average... -0.3C/-0.5F



from http://www.antarcticconnection.com/antarctic/weather/almanac/yearlysummaries/2001yearly.htm

And no matter what, ya gotta love this one.

Quote:
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
A New Record for Antarctic Total Ice Extent?
While the news focus has been on the lowest ice extent since satellite monitoring began in 1979 for the Arctic, the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctica) has quietly set a new record for most ice extent since 1979.



from http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/a_new_record_for_antartic_total_ice_extent

Quote:
Scandinavia - record minimum temperatures!


from http://geography.radley.org.uk/MetNetEur/analysis99/enochill.html
0 Replies
 
Hamal
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 12:28 pm
TheCorrectResponse wrote:
The weather is been beautiful in the great lakes. Unseasonably warm. Just waiting for the leaves to change, then top down and out in the country. 73 for a high today.


It really has been, although it's raining here today in A2. This last weekend I got up to the Standish/Au Grey area and it was just gorgeous out. I'm personally soakin' the last of it up because I am not a huge fan of the snow and freezing rain we get starting in the next couple months.
0 Replies
 
TheCorrectResponse
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 12:37 pm
I like snow. 34 degrees and freezing cold rain like we had most of last winter sucks, I'm in NE Ohio, if I'm not on a contract somewhere. Especially when you have a beagle puppy who doesn't understand its cold outside!
0 Replies
 
Hamal
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 01:03 pm
Yea, I suppose it's more trying to get around in the snow that I don't like. Otherwise I do like the seasons. We had one super mother of a freezing rain storm last year that coated the town like I've never seen before. The next day it was really sunny which made the town look like some kind of surreal crystal paradise. I actually took quite a few pictures like this:

http://i145.photobucket.com/albums/r236/fatdubhe/untitled.jpg

Looking at it again, the picture doesn't really do justice to how amazing it was. There were people out everywhere just staring at the landscape.

Normally though, the freezing rain we get is just dangerous and yea, definitely sucks. Fun I am sure for a little pup to torment their owner though when they need to go out! Smile
0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 01:13 pm
TheCorrectResponse wrote:
Sorry ROS I'll let the rest slide on this post, excuse me! Smile

It's not my thread TCR. Do whatever you want. I just felt like saying how nice it is outside around here during this season.

Here's a picture I took recently:
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2483/dsc00119ca9.jpg

For my view on Climate Change you can check out the thread I started a while ago over here. Smile Have fun.
0 Replies
 
TheCorrectResponse
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 01:32 pm
Hamal:
That's a great picture. I remember one storm we had back in the 90's Like that. I put about 200 miles on my truck taking pictures like that (about six rolls). The ice melted the roads and it was easy driving. Then I moved to N.E. for about 8 years or so, several cities, and have lost all but one roll in the moves.

I was in Boston in 1997 for the April fools day storm. It closed the city for almost four days. Apparently they don't get big snow storms that often. Cuyahoga County has more snow removal trucks than the entire state of MA. I think. It was too funny, even the plows were getting stuck.
0 Replies
 
Hamal
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 02:23 pm
That's a really nice picture Ros, too cool.

That is funny, TCR. April fools and all (haha). I think I remember hearing something about that.

Here, even though it snows every year, it's almost like the city is in denial of the effect it has on driving conditions. It seems they'll rarely plow when there is no question it's needed. Especially in recent years they just let the morning rush hours clear the roads. It's really inconsistent. One day we'll get an inch and they'll be out plowing and salting every little corner and side street. Then we get hit with half a foot or more and you won't see a single plow!

Ahh well, there could be worse things to worry about.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Tue 16 Oct, 2007 06:52 pm
eastern lake ontario :
perfect fall weather , still quite sunny and mild .
the canada geese are putting on a fine display on lake ontario - unfortunately , they can be quite messy on shore !
hbg

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/4879/lakeontario010yf2.jpg
0 Replies
 
 

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