Good posts Thomas thanks
Fascinating book by Jevrons. Was he wrong to raise concerns about dependency on a finite resource? What would his reaction have been if you (in Victorian England) had said to him
"Don't worry Jevrons old boy. We know the Navy and the entire British Empire runs on coal. But something will come along to replace it when its all gone, you wait and see."
his reaction might have been "You are talking about the future of the Empire as if it was just a matter of good luck, I take it more seriously than you"
Thomas you gave an honest answer to my question
such as...?
I dont know either. If I did know, or if you knew, or if we were in partnership together and knew, we would instantly acquire such wealth as to make Bill Gates....well you know where I'm coming from
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Regarding betting ...Interesting I will come back to you on that.
However one minor point. Please dont classify me as just part of the environmentalist lobby. ["your side lost"]. I'm not a tree hugger. I like trees dont get me wrong, but in a purely functional and indeed platonic sense.
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I want to make a couple of points
First I maintain strongly that oil is energy and therefore not just a resource like any other.
As the price of oil increases less favourable oil deposits become economic. Further increases might spur investment in the latest extraction technology to squeeze out as much recoverable oil as possible. But it seems obvious to me that no matter the price, you cant keep pumping oil for ever. At first the oil gushes. Then there is a steady flow, then it has to be pumped out. At some stage you put as much energy down the well as is liberated by the oil you have extracted. Energy return on energy invested is unity. The well is dead, regardless of the price of oil, and regardless of how much oil is still left.
Second there seems to be a great deal of confusion about glib phrases such as "the oil is running out". I hope I've never said that.
It gets people's attention but its misleading. Its not like we have gone a long way in the car and completely forgotten to watch the fuel gauge, only to find the 'empty' warning light flashing and no filling station nearby.
To continue the car analogy, its more like we have started a long car journey and got used to going pretty quickly. Indeed we are so used to going quickly that its a real bummer when we have to slow down. (Sometimes we had to whilst we had arguments with passengers who insisted on starting wars etc, or because there was dispute among the various drivers. This car has several steering wheels]. The terrain is reasonably flat and we keep an even speed by using the accelerator (gas) pedal as normal. The fuel gauge shows we have a lot of petrol left (not full obviously but certainly not empty). Then a funny thing happens. We find we want to give the engine a bit more power and ....nothing. We are going flat out. What had seemed like a flatish road was actually the beginning of an uphill. The demand for fuel from the engine had been steadily increasing, and we had been pressing the accelerator pedal harder without noticing it. We cant supply any more fuel to the engine..what happens? we start to slow down, which gets everybody very annoyed.
Its not a good analogy but it illustrates what I mean to a point. Peak oil is not about running out of oil. Its about the ability of all the oil wells in the world to satisfy world oil demand. We are currently using oil 3 times faster than we are finding it. (And have been for quite a while). At the moment oil production is about 80mbpd. With the industrialisation of China and India, it is forcast to reach 120mbpd within 20 years. Can we just turn on the taps more? Many people believe we are already at or approaching the condition of Peak Oil, when for the first time, oil production fails to meet demand. Do we say to the Chinese and the Indians they cannot use oil like we do now?
There are of course many other sources of energy. But nothing compares to oil, especially for transport. We're hooked on it!
Of course there will be a solution. But I dont think its going to come from wonder fuel resource X as yet undiscovered. It will come from radically altering the energy mix (oil will still be a major component). The difficulty is imo over the next 10-20 years as we have to get used to radical changes in the way we like.
It seems like the US response is to buy time and make the transition to the new economy as comfortable as possible by use of their military to secure oil resources.