cavolina wrote:Is anyone out there listening, the price of crude is academic. There are no real "market forces" at work here. The oil companies have us, and have had us, where they want us for over thirty years.
The price of crude oil as a bellweather of the price of refined product is a sham. The oil companies charge what they choose to charge. Evidence the 247% rise in oil company profits during 2004.
1) If the whole industry had made $1 in January 2004 and $3.47 in December, that would have been a 247% rise in oil company profits too. It would also be entirely unproblematic. My point is that the change in profits doesn't give you their level, and you need to know the level of the industry's profit rate before you can have a grounded opinion on whether it is excessive.
2) You may want to plot the price of crude oil against the price of gasoline over the last 10 years or so before you make confident statements like this. My prediction is you'll get a fairly good correlation, but I'm willing to be persuaded if you don't. I am not, however, going to be persuaded by an unsubstantiated assertion by a person I don't know, so have no reason to trust.
cavolina wrote:The worry is that rising oil prices will put pressure on every other facet of our economy causing inflation. Infaltion will cause the Fed to raise interest rates and viola, we have a re-play of the 1970's and "stagflation".
Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. When the price of oil explodes, it will likely create a boom in America's oil industry and a corresponding slowdown in the rest of its economy. On net, the effect will still be a slowdown, because what the workforce specializes in mismatches the jobs employers offer. But while one can expect an effect on growth, there is no reason to expect inflation as unless the Fed prints a lot of extra money -- which it probably won't. (And even the effect on growth will be small if the crude oil price (paid to foreigners) is a bad predictor of gasoline prices, which you say it is.)
cavolina wrote:Sadly, many of our best minds are currently burying theirs and watching silently as wealth passes upward at an ever increasing rate.
Since you evidently believe there is easy money to be had for the owners of oil companies, you may have considererd putting your money where your mouth is. May I ask how much of your net worth is invested in oil company stocks?