Putin's war

I have to give Biden great marks here. By publishing intelligence data, he robbed Putin of surprise and got all our allies on board early (and the intelligence was remarkably accurate.) It looks like by the time Putin had all his ducks in a row, Biden had all of his lined up as well. Russian sanctions were ready to go, not a nebulous concept that needed endless debate. I doubt he will get any reward at home for it, but as an old cold warrior, I approve.

Even if Russia's attack came suddenly because of the many diplomatic efforts of the West in recent weeks - it was not entirely surprising: since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia's expansion plans have hovered over Ukraine like a sword of Damocles.

I've also experienced the Cold War, during my time (as a conscript and later reserve officer) in the navy, but also because for 40 years I lived only a few dozen miles away from the border with East Germany, surrounded by dozens of potential targets for attack.

The war in Ukraine marks the beginning of a new, dangerous era in world politics. We didn't have a war here in Europe since 1945. (It just takes 20 hours to drive from my hometown to Kiev.)

One can feel Putin's pain of the implosion of the Soviet empire - but his motives are absolutely incomprehensible. The pain of loss of a KGB agent in Dresden, which Putin was at the time, cannot justify a war of aggression.

Because, this is a blatant war of aggression against a sovereign state, even a member of the United Nations.
The prohibition of such an attack is perhaps the most important pillar of the post-World War II international legal order. Moreover, Russia is violating numerous other international treaties, including those concerning its relationship with Ukraine.

Do you believe that Germany and other European NATO powers are prepared to deal with this new unfolding of Russian aggression?

Germany not at all.

My concern is that with the economic integration that we've seen since the Cold War that the population of Europe is not willing to suffer the economic deprivation that is likely coming. Germany gets a lot of their energy needs from Russia via the Ukraine. London is awash in Russian oligarch money. In the US, we'll see higher fuel prices but not much else. Europe is going to bear the brunt of a new Cold War.

If it really was "only" a cold war, then it is a totally different situation from how the term was used at the time.

For one thing, the dangerous situation was tangible for us.
But then also: there were still many people alive who had been through the real war. And my generation had grown up in the (visible) post-war period. With all the limitations.

Nowadays, wars happen somewhere far away. In Mali or Somolia. And if it gets too hot there, they withdraw the troops.

The only consequences for the population are a change of topic in the news and on the talk shows.

And that changed over night. The war in Ukraine marks the beginning of a new, dangerous era in world politics. And the situation in Europe.

Yes! The only bright spot from my perspective is that I'm not the one(s) having to make decisions here.

I agree with you. The EU, which in its early days starting with a coal, Iron and steel union and went on to the Common Market and finally the current rather bureaucratic state initiated truly remarkable, sustained economic growth throughout Western Europe. There are still some North - South and East-West divides that linger, but nearly all of Europe has benefitted significantly from it.

I have long believed that the precept of "an ever closer Union" combined with the absence of any truly Federal structure, which might have carved out some enduring powers for member nations, and associated limitations of the power of the EU state apparatus, might ultimately yield an authoritarian and bureaucratic state. It increasingly appears that this, to a considerable extent, has in fact occurred. I suspect that was a significant contributing factor to the UK's decision to pursue BREXIT, though the long-standing British tradition of suspicion for dominant Continental European Powers was likely also involved.

Now a diminished sense of European national identity may also yield a number of emerging and perhaps unanticipated side effects that may bear on their ability to deal with the emerging emergence of China as a world power and the continuing efforts of Putin's Russia to reestablish a new Russian Empire. The latter two certainly do not share the lofty aspirations of the EU, though in their largely bureaucratic structures there are some somewhat disturbing similarities.

We agree on this. Sadly the combination of these things with the feckless incompetence of the current U.S. government does not give NATO a great deal of deterrence credibility, particularly among the Eastern European and Baltic stats. I suspect Victor Orban's status in Hungary may be rising.

Curious to know, george, what you think Trump would be doing right now.

I agree. This is not a cold war. This seems to be an all-out war from a small-man syndrome person who needs... all sorts of things. Adulation. Respect. Attention. To matter. He's a throw-back.

Well if Trump were still President, his original sanctions (generally broader than those so far imposed by Biden) on Russia would have been in effect throughout the past year. Their effect is hardly "devastating" as Biden has suggested. However, they would have given us a much more favorable starting point for truly serious additional sanctions now.

In addition, the freeze on the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline would still be in effect and the Keystone pipeline, connecting U.S. heavy petroleum refineries with Alberta, would be operational. We would not have seen Biden's trillion dollar COVID payouts; the needless delay in the resumption of employment it incentivized; and the now 7.5% annual inflation that has resulted from it. Our production of oil and gas, which at the end of Trump's term was 7% greater than our consumption and still rising, would by now be very substantial. That and our continuing construction of LNG processing facilities & port facilities would have given us the immediate ability to very significantly and quickly replace current Russian exports of gas (and petroleum) to Germany and the rest of Europe. THAT would quickly cause very significant and lasting economic consequences for a Russia that is heavily dependent on the revenues from oil & gas exports for its economic welfare. It is at least possible that Trump's continuing pressure on Germany and our other NATO allies to begin investing in restoring their much declined military capability might have yielded some improvements in military readiness in Europe.

All of these things Together would have given Trump (the U.S. and our Allies) a much better hand (and many quickly effective options) for dealing with Putin than Biden has now.

Finally Trump's actions and reactions are a good deal harder for an enemy like Putin to predict than are those of the feckless and incompetent current resident of the White House. That, plus powerful options, noted above and which we don't have now would make for a profoundly different tactical situation for Putin.

Finally, to be specific I believe Trump would pressure Germany to quickly reduce its purchases of Russian petroleum products and finally give up its "special relationship" with Russia, and, if necessary , make a very public issue of it. I suspect he would have by now increased our DEFCON state of military readiness, including our strategic deterrents and reserve forces (that Biden hasn't yet done this is truly both appalling and amazing, particularly in view of Putin's bald threat to impose damages on us "that we have never encountered in our history" if we resist ). I believe he would have also deployed additional forces to the Western Pacific, affirming our support for the continued independence of Taiwan. In addition he would likely have deployed significant forces to Europe, including air and mobile cruise & ballistic missilry capabilities. Beyond that it's hard to tell.

The bottom line however is that with the different initial conditions already noted, Trump's unpredictability and greater inclination to action, I believe Putin wouldn't have decided to invade Ukraine at all.

I want to see the cyber aspects that deter. After all,Putin was behind Trumps 2016 steal.

Perhaps you should consult some of the reports of Special Prosecutor Durham's findings and the charges he is putting forward.

This headline is all anyone needs to know about today's republican party

I should add that the mobilization of military forces in Europe, particularly those of our NATO allies) would quickly create serious requirements for Strategic reserves within Russia. This alone could significantly reduce the availability of Russian forces that could be committed to a continuing conflict in Ukraine (especially if the Ukrainian resistance continues and is effective.

Not at all. It is the feckless behavior of the current occupant of the White House in a very serious situation with likely lasting effects, that merits the utterly justifiable criticism.

Finally, following four years of often illegal efforts, involving the corruption of major institutions of our government to undermine Trump, as well as two failed impeachment efforts, it is a bit rich of you to accuse Republicans of a lack of loyalty.