Putin's war

@snood,

snood wrote:

Our strategy appears to me to be trying to stop a bully without provoking him too much by openly fighting him.

My experience with bullies is that the only deterrence that works is a kick in the teeth, or something equivalent.

I agree. Indeed failing any real resistance, bullies are usually incited to do more.

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@georgeob1,

I share your outlook. Hate to watch this.

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As an afterthought to my last comments on the analogous events attending the Sudetenland crisis of 1938 and the catastrophic surrender of Britain & France at Munich , historians have verified the then serious anxiety of many German military leaders regarding Hitler's aggression, and the possibility of a coup against him. After Munich, all that disappeared and whatever opposition there was in Germany for his increasingly evident pursuit of conquest and war, quickly disappeared. I suspect this has entered Vladimir Putin's calculations as well.

The stakes are indeed very high for the U.S. and the Western Powers. Biden is ignoring very serious threats coming from Putin; while Germany and Italy are resisting the imposition of truly serious banking sanctions on Russia. It appears we are folding. History, unfortunately is unforgiving.

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Over 2000 people have been arrested in Russia for attending anti war protests.

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@snood,

Quote:

My experience with bullies is that the only deterrence that works is a kick in the teeth, or something equivalent.

It's too bad that there is no practical equivalent. The problem, of course, is the existence of nuclear weapons capable of delivering a payload at hypersonic speed, in the hands of an aging despot with nothing to lose and a whole lot to prove. I wouldn't completely disregard the effectiveness of economic sanctions but I doubt that the West is sufficiently committed to imposing them as the effects on our own economies will simply be used to mount populist campaigns to lift them.

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@hightor,

Quote:

The problem, of course, is the existence of nuclear weapons capable of delivering a payload at hypersonic speed, in the hands of an aging despot with nothing to lose and a whole lot to prove.

Yes.

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@hightor,

Very likely this is the rationalization behind German and Italian resistance to merely serious sanctions. Similar arguments were used in 1938 preceding the Munich "accord" regarding practical responses. We all know the results that yielded.

The sanctions in force now are very far short of the "devastating" restrictions Biden so deceitfully promised, and it is becoming increasingly likely that nothing more is in the offing.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

Germany and Italy are resisting the imposition of truly serious banking sanctions on Russia.

The EU's most severe sanctions sword is not to be included in the current ones due to the opposition of Germany, France, Italy and some other member states: the exclusion of Russia from the banking communications network Swift, which would effectively cut off Russian banks from the global financial system.

Switzerland insists on its neutrality. It follows from this that no sanctions of its own will be imposed.
In this way, all those affected have the possibility to circumvent the sanctions via the diversions to Switzerland.

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@Lash,

Lash wrote:

The Ukrainian people are incredibly brave. I’ve heard so much audio and seen interviews that really compel respect.

One audio translated, paraphrased:
R: This is a Russian military ship. Propose your surrender.
U: Go **** yourself.

I don’t know how that confrontation ended.

It seems that they can’t possibly win, but they are all speaking only on the terms of repelling the aggressors.

A shout out to the multitude of Russians risking incarceration and violence to protest this war.

This is how that verbal stand off ended between the Russian warship and Ukrainian defenders on Snake Island. They knew they were going to die.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/25/world/russia-ukraine-war/ukraine-troops-snake-island

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@hightor,

He is a incredibly wealthy man with his own mini state like lichtenstein which is just his private estate. That's just the tip of the iceberg so much of his stuff is 'owned' by others.

He's not yet seventy and he has a family.

This isn't Hitler in his bunker, Putin has a huge amount to lose.

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@Lash,

The original, as posted yesterday by the Ukrainian news outlet Ukrayinska Pravda, confirmed authenticity to The Washington Post by an Ukrainian official .

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@Walter Hinteler,

Sounds like a good, but very weak, excuse. What then is the EU's alternative?

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I always give some credence to Caitlyn Johnstone and Chris Hedges. Not to say I always agree with everything they say, but I do mostly share their opinions.

The theory we here seem to be embracing almost universally is Putin is trying to annex himself into more power. Johnstone and Hedges have another theory: the US has expanded NATO, knowingly inciting Putin to defensive action.

It’s worth considering.

https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/experts-warned-for-years-that-nato?utm_source=url&fbclid=IwAR2cl2UO372nvb7KC_gjH_FE_6HmyD4N5GswC5gzhrt2GffBTpxL5v8sMv4

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

What then is the EU's alternative?

I'm not aware to an alternative besides those sanctions from today.

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This war, by the way, is between the largest (Russia, 3,969,100 km²) and the second largest (Ukraine, 603,628 km²) European country.

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In order to deter Russia, Nato is redeploying its rapid reaction force NRF. This was announced by Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in a video link. He did not say where the troops would be deployed.

According to the German news agency dpa, ground troops could be sent to Romania, southwest of Ukraine. In any case, it is planned to send NRF units to the NATO country Norway, which borders Russia, for an exercise.

This is the first time that parts of the NRF have been deployed in the course of deterring and defending the territory of the Alliance,

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@hightor,

Quote:

The problem, of course, is the existence of nuclear weapons capable of delivering a payload at hypersonic speed, in the hands of an aging despot with nothing to lose and a whole lot to prove.

When I say that he has "nothing to lose" I'm not talking about material losses – any nuclear exchange would make the individual loss of wealth or family seem trivial. As an actor on the world stage he has behaved criminally in Syria and Chechnya, he has had assassinations carried out at home and abroad, he has looked the other way as his trolls launch hostile cyber attacks, and has propped up dictators in Europe. But most importantly, he has revealed himself to be a consummate liar. It's not as if he's risking a great reputation, global popularity, or personal honor. He has nothing to lose in the way of international respect and has repeatedly shown that he doesn't care.

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@Walter Hinteler,

Walter Hinteler wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:
What then is the EU's alternative?

I'm not aware to an alternative besides those sanctions from today.

Surely the EU could threaten Switzerland with the same sanctions and isolation from European banks if they refuse to isolate the Russians.

This sounds like a convenient, but very feeble excuse.

Now that NATO has declared a military alert as you noted, this appears to me to be an obvious next step.

With our equally feeble President I'm afraid we're in no position to criticize. However the historical lessons applicable to us all should make the issue very clear to all.

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@georgeob1,

Quote:

Similar arguments were used in 1938 preceding the Munich "accord" regarding practical responses.

I wasn't aware that Hitler possessed hypersonic missiles with nuclear warheads.

Quote:

The sanctions in force now are very far short of the "devastating" restrictions Biden so deceitfully promised...

You do realize that economic sanctions are not equivalent to a blitzkrieg and take some time to work?

Quote:

...and it is becoming increasingly likely that nothing more is in the offing.

Put away your crystal ball – I doubt that you are privy to the top level discussions going on in the Pentagon, State Department, UN, and NATO. You're just continuing your tiresome practice of making solemn pronouncements which amount to nothing more than impotent musings from the sidelines.

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@Walter Hinteler,

Appreciative of the news and the content.

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