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Putin's war

 
 
engineer
 
  4  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 06:33 am
@thack45,
thack45 wrote:

Just speculating, but I wonder how mindful this administration is of the predictable and assured chain of events, where whenever Biden speaks, it's almost immediately shoehorned into more "proof" propaganda by the usual suspects.

Does it really matter? The "usual suspects" no longer are even striving for a fig leaf of truth, either domestic or abroad. Biden's words will be parsed and repackaged by enemies regardless of what he says so he might as well say the truth.
snood
 
  4  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 07:07 am
@engineer,
engineer wrote:

thack45 wrote:

Just speculating, but I wonder how mindful this administration is of the predictable and assured chain of events, where whenever Biden speaks, it's almost immediately shoehorned into more "proof" propaganda by the usual suspects.

Does it really matter? The "usual suspects" no longer are even striving for a fig leaf of truth, either domestic or abroad. Biden's words will be parsed and repackaged by enemies regardless of what he says so he might as well say the truth.


Parsed and repackaged by enemies; undermined and second-guessed by supposed allies.

Might as well just tell the truth, indeed.
0 Replies
 
coluber2001
 
  1  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 08:37 am
Thom Hartmann interviews Greg Palace, an investigative journalist who is in touch with Ukrainians under attack.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1bwW6dThHI&feature=youtu.be
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  5  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 09:22 am
Interesting to watch the clear, deep split developing in the Republican Party. I think this invasion has really given a voice back to old school Republicans who have been on the back foot during the Trump ascendency.

Quote:
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) lambasted Donald Trump’s praise of the Russian invasion of Ukraine last week, saying history was watching despite the former president’s repeated comments about Vladimir Putin being a “genius” who had been “smart” about the ruthless assault.

“How can anyone with any understanding of the world call Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine ‘genius’ and ‘very savvy’ as we watch him unite the rest of the world against Russia in nearly an instant?” Christie asked Monday on Twitter. He went on to say that Putin has two choices now: an “unwinnable occupation of Ukraine” or a “humiliating retreat.”

“Yeah, that’s ‘genius’ and ‘very savvy’ alright”


Mitt Romney (who has always pegged Putin as US enemy number one)
Senator Romney wrote:

How anybody in this country, which loves freedom, can side with Vladimir Putin, who is an oppressor, a dictator, he kills people, he imprisons his political opponents, he has been an adversary of America at every chance he’s had, it’s unthinkable to me, it’s almost treasonous,


Howard Stern, who has not been a big fan of Trump but was pretty reliably Republican in the past has this to say.
Howard Stern wrote:

I voted for many Republicans. I don’t see how I’ll ever get back to that. They’ve just totally disappointed me and their support of Vladimir Putin, the praise they heap on him. Trump’s praise of Vladimir Putin. This guy is a f*cking animal.
snood
 
  4  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 09:50 am
@engineer,
I agree with your assessment.

Except the one small part of it when you say they were “on the back foot” as if to say they were suffering Trump in silence or laying low biding their time. Some of the people speaking up against Trump now - like lardass Chris Christie- had jumped on the Trump train with both feet and rode it as long as they thought the gettin was good.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  -4  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 12:26 pm
I doubt that Trump's (typically thoughtless ) comment about Putin's supposed "genius" in starting the assault on Ukraine was anything but a snide comment on the responses of Biden and our NATO allies (whom Trump had repeatedly castigated for their lack of military readiness during his time in office). Anything's possible in these fairly crazy times, but the overly energetic fixation of Democrats over Trump's supposed "collusion" with Putin is itself a holdover from their own collusion with Russian sources to create a false pretext for, now known to be illegal, monitoring of Trump's communications by our intelligence services.

Reports of logistics (and even morale) issues attending Putin's now rather massive addition of troops and resources to his campaign in Ukraine are encouraging. Clearly Putin has badly misjudged his own military readiness; the strength and determination of the Ukrainian resistance; and the strong response of the European NATO countries, though he appears to have assessed our President Biden correctly.

Ultimately Russia does have the ability to crush the Ukrainian resistance, though mounting external (and possibly also internal) political pressures on Putin may well limit his actions. Russia's army is staffed by conscripts, many of whom are likely sympathetic to the Ukrainians whose homes they are destroying. Lets hope for that. Every day of continued, effective Ukrainian resistance adds to Putin's troubles and the restrictions on what can rationally do. Unfortunately desperate leaders in desperate situations often do irrational things.
engineer
 
  7  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 12:54 pm
@georgeob1,
While it's great that Russia is having issues, I agree with you that ultimately Ukraine is doomed. There are just too many arrows in the quiver that Russia hasn't even started to use.

As for Putin judging Biden correctly, I think he completely misjudged him. He was clearly expecting a response like he got from Obama after Crimea: some minor sanctions, not much else. It's pretty clear at this point that the Biden administration was working behind the scenes to make sure we had crippling sanctions in place and quickly. There is no way that all those dominos fell as quickly as they did if there wasn't massive coordination, and it is also clear that the Russian economy is already reeling in response. Even non-NATO countries like Japan were on board immediately. If Putin in planning on supplying through China he now faces a 35% drop in the value of the Ruble vs the Yuan and you know that China will happily take Russia to the cleaners. I read one article that says Biden is pretty much working sun-up to sundown keeping all the balls in play. I'm not sure what more you think Biden could have done. Honestly, I think Biden gets an A+ here.

As for irrational leaders doing irrational things, yes, that is where we are at. Putin can go all it, destroy Ukraine and fight a twenty year war against its population or withdraw and face humiliation. I can't see a good off-ramp here and that means he's just going to go for broke.
Albuquerque
 
  -2  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 01:22 pm
@engineer,
In the past week a dangerous precedent was taken on incentivize a public street judgement on the web against a major military power and its economical Moguls on the style and vain of a jacobin French revolution! These things tend to have a boomerang effect!

Not Russia but the all Economical Mogul world is watching very carefully how the new rules of the game are from now on.

Meanwhile Europe lost forever 10% of the worlds reserves Russia has for a cause it knew it couldn't help win! Russia will never forget!

If Putin falls, and there is an actual chance he gets assassinated all bets are off on what is coming next inside Russia but also on what rules are allowed to dispose of major leaders...

Rubble will bounce back as soon as China brings up Taiwan again and needs a pal...

As for the SWIFT system well SWIFT has its days numbered...

Finally the Ukrainian people will suffer more and for longer because the internet was longing for a new Game of Thrones final season to cry and gossip about while eating popcorn...sad!

Our Leaders are all brilliant, our intellectuals are a tower of insight...
Europe and the United States have no doubt a majestic future ahead!
0 Replies
 
Mame
 
  4  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 01:35 pm
@engineer,
I agree with your summation and assessment. Putin is not one to lose face - he's in it to win it. I feel badly for the Russian population who did not want this war, but ultimately and sadly, they only have themselves to blame for allowing this menace to continue as their leader.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  -2  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 01:58 pm
@engineer,
Biden could have taken some visible response to Putin's rather explicit and direct threats to our country and the alerting of his nuclear strike forces that soon followed it. So far he has done nothing.

Biden could have taken some swift action to remove the restrictions he foolishly placed on our domestic production of oil & gas. Petroleum exports are Russia's main source of foreign income. Under Biden's watch, we have gone swiftly from a net exporter of these vital commodities, to now to a significant importer of Putin's oil. This is likely to be a lasting issue with Russia, and Biden has foolishly thrown away what was our significant potential leverage over Putin, at what turns out to have been a very significant moment.
The use of fossil fuel is influenced far more by current demand in this currently declining market, and not supply. The notion that we are somehow increasing its use by producing it, is a bit absurd.

The sanctions Biden proposed have been significantly expanded at the initiative of our European allies. The rather spontaneous changes in national policy taken by the new Chancellor of Germany have had much more beneficial effect in this area than did the rather lukewarm actions taken by Biden.

I will concede that Biden's steady release of Intelligence information regarding Putin's preparations and likely intentions in the lead up to all this, very likely did significantly stimulate both Ukrainian readiness and the concerns of our NATO allies - these were indeed the critical events that deprived Putin of a swift decapitation of the Ukrainian government , and the subsequent arousal of the European governments that soon followed. In that one area he did very well indeed.

As to Biden's supposed "tireless work" in this area, I'm a bit skeptical. He spent this last weekend home in Delaware.
Albuquerque
 
  -1  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 02:09 pm
@georgeob1,
You will soon be exporting a frack ton of oil to Europe don't you worry, money is coming your way!
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  5  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 02:50 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

Biden could have taken some visible response to Putin's rather explicit and direct threats to our country and the alerting of his nuclear strike forces that soon followed it. So far he has done nothing.

He has done nothing visible and I think that is the best approach. No need to show the world the US ratcheting up nuclear tensions. I'm pretty sure Putin's actions have been the talk of the US military and NATO. Being noisy about it just plays to Putin's narrative of a war-like West.
georgeob1 wrote:

Biden could have taken some swift action to remove the restrictions he foolishly placed on our domestic production of oil & gas. Petroleum exports are Russia's main source of foreign income. Under Biden's watch, we have gone swiftly from a net exporter of these vital commodities, to now to a significant importer of Putin's oil.

While the US does import some Russian oil (as well as exporting to some countries), the US is overall energy independent (Great link from Forbes discussing this) and combined with Canada there is no concern about US energy supplies. Europe is another matter, but the Biden administration has been working on that for months now.
georgeob1 wrote:
The sanctions Biden proposed have been significantly expanded at the initiative of our European allies. The rather spontaneous changes in national policy taken by the new Chancellor of Germany have had much more beneficial effect in this area than did the rather lukewarm actions taken by Biden.

If you think that our European allies were "rather spontaneous" in their changes, you are ignoring 75 years of post WWII bureaucracy. There was clearly some behind the scenes work to make that happen although I think your earlier post about how the world has been inspired by the Ukrainian resistance has a lot of merit. The popular support gave cover to the plans that the US and Britian were pushing for.

georgeob1 wrote:
As to Biden's supposed "tireless work" in this area, I'm a bit skeptical. He spent this last weekend home in Delaware.

But to be honest, you would be skeptical of Biden regardless, right? He's the President of the US, he works from home when he needs to. But here is the article I read.
georgeob1
 
  -2  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 03:16 pm
@engineer,
Thanks for the comments.
You appear to forget that, had Biden not stopped new drilling leases on Federal lands and, more significantly, banned the renewal of existing ones, our then 7% surplus of production over consumption would have by now grown enough to enable us to quickly replace well over half of Russia's gas & oil exports to Germany. Think for a moment how that might have changed the current situation, particularly in view of the now changed priorities of the new German Chancellor.

My strong impression is that the emerging new attitudes of Western European leaders concerning the goals and tactics of the Putin regime in Russia were largely spontaneous and self-serving. In any event they immediately pushed for sanctions stronger than those previously indicated by ole Joe. I'll readily acknowledge some pressure from the U.S. appears likely, but the speed, vigor and extent of the response, which quickly outpaced Biden's announced actions, strongly suggests the events in Western Europe were largely a result of Putin's actions and the resolute response of the Ukrainians.

We appear simply to have opposing inclinations on the matter. I'll readily acknowledge mine.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  3  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 03:46 pm
A rather long Intercept piece, and definitely written from a Green perspective. But Klein raises some points that we might wish to consider. Like the effect of recommitting ourselves to a fossilized hydrocarbon economy...

Toxic Nostalgia, From Putin to Trump to the Trucker Convoys

War is reshaping our world. Will we harness that urgency for climate action or succumb to a final, deadly oil and gas boom?

Quote:
Nostalgia for empire is what seems to drive Vladimir Putin — that and a desire to overcome the shame of punishing economic shock therapy imposed on Russia at the end of the Cold War. Nostalgia for American “greatness” is part of what drives the movement Donald Trump still leads — that and a desire to overcome the shame of having to face the villainy of white supremacy that shaped the founding of the United States and mutilates it still. Nostalgia is also what animates the Canadian truckers who occupied Ottawa for the better part of a month, wielding their red-and-white flags like a conquering army, evoking a simpler time when their consciences were undisturbed by thoughts of the bodies of Indigenous children, whose remains are still being discovered on the grounds of those genocidal institutions that once dared to call themselves “schools.”

This is not the warm and cozy nostalgia of fuzzily remembered childhood pleasures; it’s an enraged and annihilating nostalgia that clings to false memories of past glories against all mitigating evidence.

All these nostalgia-based movements and figures share a longing for something else, something which may seem unrelated but is not. A nostalgia for a time when fossil fuels could be extracted from the earth without uneasy thoughts of mass extinction, or children demanding their right to a future, or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, like the one just released yesterday, that reads, in the words of United Nations Secretary General António Guterres, like an “atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.” Putin, of course, leads a petrostate, one that has defiantly refused to diversify its economic dependence on oil and gas, despite the devastating effect of the commodity roller coaster on its people and despite the reality of climate change. Trump is obsessed with the easy money that fossil fuels offer and as president made climate denial a signature policy.

The Canadian truckers, for their part, not only chose idling 18-wheelers and smuggled jerry cans as their protest symbols, but the leadership of the movement is also deeply rooted in the extra-dirty oil of the Alberta tar sands. Before it was the “freedom convoy,” many of these same players staged the dress rehearsal known as United We Roll, a 2019 convoy that combined a zealous defense of oil pipelines, opposition to carbon pricing, anti-immigrant xenophobia, and explicit nostalgia for a white, Christian Canada.

(...)

Given their common cosmologies, it should come as no surprise that Putin, Trump, and the “freedom convoys” are reaching toward one another across disparate geographies and wildly different circumstances. So Trump praises Canada’s “peaceful movement of patriotic truckers, workers, and families protesting for their most basic rights and liberties”; Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon cheer on Putin while the truckers sport their MAGA hats; Randy Hillier, a member of the Ontario Legislature who is one of the convoy’s loudest supporters, declares on Twitter that “Far more people have & will die from this shot [the Covid vaccines], than in the Russia/Ukraine war.” And how about the Ontario restaurant that last week put on its daily specials board the announcement that Putin “is not occupying Ukraine” but standing up to the Great Reset, the Satanists, and “fighting against the enslavement of humanity.”

(...)

The Green New Deal [...] happens to be the best way to cut off the petrodollars flowing to people like Putin, since green economies that have beat the addiction to endless growth don’t need imported oil and gas. And it’s also how we cut off the oxygen to the pseudo-populism of Trump/Carlson/Bannon, whose bases are expanding because they are far better at harnessing the rage directed at Davos elites than the Democrats, whose leaders, for the most part, are those elites.

Russia’s invasion underlines the urgency of this kind of green transformation, but it also throws up new challenges. Before Russia’s tanks started rolling, we were already hearing that the best way to stop Putin’s aggression is to ramp up fossil fuel production in North America. Within hours of the invasion, every planet-torching project that the climate justice movement had managed to block over the past decade was being frantically rushed back onto the table by right-wing politicians and industry-friendly pundits: every canceled oil pipeline, every nixed gas export terminal, every protected fracking field, every Arctic drilling dream. Since Putin’s war machine is funded with petrodollars, the solution we are told, is to drill, frack, and ship more of our own.

(...)

But here is a secret our movements often keep even from themselves: Since the price of oil plummeted in 2015, we have been fighting an industry with one hand tied behind its back. That’s because the cheaper, easier-to-access oil and gas is mostly depleted in North America, so the pitched battles over new projects have primarily been over unconventional, costlier to extract sources: fossil fuels trapped in shale rock, or under the seabed in the deep ocean, or under Arctic ice, or the semi-solid sludge of the Alberta tar sands. Many of these new fossil fuel frontiers only became profitable after the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, which sent oil prices soaring. Suddenly, it made economic sense to make those multibillion-dollar investments to extract oil from the deep ocean or to turn Alberta’s muddy bitumen into refined oil. The boom years were upon us, with the Financial Times describing the frenzy in tar sands as “north America’s biggest resources boom since the Klondike gold rush.”

However, when the price of oil collapsed in 2015, industry’s determination to keep growing at such a frenetic pace wavered. In some cases, investors weren’t sure they would earn their money back, which led some majors to pull back from the Arctic and the tar sands. And with profits and stock prices down, divestment organizers were suddenly able to make the case that fossil fuel stocks weren’t just immoral, they were a lousy investment, even on capitalism’s own terms.

Well, Putin’s actions have untied the hand behind Big Oil’s back and turned it into a fist.

This explains the recent wave of attacks on the climate movement and on the handful of Democratic politicians who have advanced science-based climate action. Rep. Tom Reed, a Republican from New York, claimed last week, “The United States has the energy resources to knock Russia out of the oil and gas market entirely, but we don’t use those resources because of President Biden’s partisan pandering to the environmental extremists of the Democratic party.”

The precise opposite is true. If governments, many of whom ran promising Green New Deal-like policies over the past decade and half, had actually implemented them, Putin would not be able to flout international law and opinion as he has been doing so flagrantly, secure in the belief that he will still have customers for his increasingly profitable hydrocarbons. The underlying crisis we face is not that North American and Western European countries have failed to build out the fossil fuel infrastructure that would allow it to displace Russian oil and gas; it is that all of us — the U.S., Canada, Germany, Japan — are still consuming obscene and untenable amounts of oil and gas, and indeed of energy, period.

(...)

It’s worth pausing over some of the implications. If Germany can abandon an $11 billion pipeline because it’s suddenly seen as immoral (it always was), then all fossil fuel infrastructure that violates our right to a stable climate should also be up for debate. If BP can walk away from a 20 percent stake in a Russian oil major, what investment cannot be abandoned if it is premised on the destruction of a habitable planet? And if public money can be announced to build gas terminals in the blink of an eye, then it’s not too late to fight for far more solar and wind.

As Bill McKibben wrote in his excellent newsletter last week, Biden could help in this transformation, using powers only available during times of emergency, by invoking the Defense Production Act to build large numbers of electric heat pumps and shipping them to Europe to mitigate the pain of losing Russian gas. That is the creative spirit we need in this moment. Because if we are building new energy infrastructure — and we must — surely it should be the infrastructure of the future, not more toxic nostalgia.

(...)

War is reshaping our world, but so too is the climate emergency. The question is: Will we harness wartime levels of urgency and action to catalyze climate action, making us all safer for decades to come, or will we allow war to add more fuel to a planet already on fire? That challenge was put most sharply recently by Svitlana Krakovska, a Ukrainian scientist who is part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working group that produced this week’s report. Even as her country was under the Kremlin’s attack, she reportedly told her scientific colleagues in a virtual meeting that “Human-induced climate change and the war on Ukraine have the same roots, fossil fuels, and our dependence on them.”

Russia’s outrages in Ukraine should remind us that the corrupting influence of oil and gas lies at the root of virtually every force that is destabilizing our planet. Putin’s smug swagger? Brought to you by oil, gas, and nukes. The trucks that occupied Ottawa for a month, harassing residents and filling the air with fumes and inspiring copycat convoys around the word? One of the occupation’s leaders showed up in court a few days ago wearing an “I ♥ Oil and Gas” sweatshirt. She knows who her sponsors are. Covid-denialism and surging conspiracy culture? Hey, once you have denied climate breakdown, denying pandemics, elections, or pretty much any form of objective reality is a light lift.

At this late stage in the debate, much of this is well understood. The climate justice movement has won all the arguments for transformational action. What we risk losing, in the fog of war, is our nerve. Because nothing changes the subject like extreme violence, even violence that is being actively subsidized by the soaring price of oil. To prevent that from happening, we could do far worse than to take inspiration from Krakovska, who apparently told her colleagues at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in that closed-door meeting, “We will not surrender in Ukraine. And we hope the world will not surrender in building a climate-resilient future.” Her words so moved her Russian counterpart, eye witnesses reported, that he broke ranks and apologized for the actions of his government — a brief glimpse of a world looking forward, not back.

theintercept
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 04:59 pm
@hightor,
I believe the real would-be reshapers of our world are the AGW zealots who seek to subordinate human freedom and physical welfare to their pseudo- moralistic (and intolerant) pursuit of the reversal of (their concepts) of climate change, using only their prescribed, but largely inadequate, remedies.

They demand a regime that would impose far greater costs on humanity in pursuit of their ill conceived goals and the costly, inadequate remedies they so incompetently prescribe. Their preferred method in all of this is an authoritarian structure of "requirements" - an approach which human history amply demonstrates yields only unimaginative mediocrity, poverty and tyranny.
hightor
 
  4  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 05:54 pm
@georgeob1,
Possibly. I agree about the pseudo-moralism. (which is why I distanced myself from the argument) However, "unimaginative mediocrity, poverty and tyranny" seem to be characteristics found in many human societies with no connection to climate concerns. And "drill baby, drill" is itself pretty unimaginative.
georgeob1
 
  -1  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 06:44 pm
@hightor,
I agree, unimaginative mediocrity, poverty and tyranny are widespread human traits and , and as well, characteristic of the governance of some countries around the world. For example Socialist economic systems tend to breed these qualities, as do excessively authoritarian organizations of all types. Healthier organizations cultivate liberty, freedom of expression, and competition, all of which usually yield some pursuit of excellence and built-in means for filtering out bad or non-productive ideas and methods.

I learned a long time ago that, in a position of leadership, it is much wiser to work at influencing those assigned to work for you, than to attempt to control all that they do. People tend to pursue their own plans and ideas much more energetically and efficiently than detailed assignments handed down to them. In addition I found that while thinking for themselves about the goals at hand they often produced better ideas than my own. For myself I found that I got better results accepting a plan from a deputy that achieved (say) 85% of what I wanted, than by nagging him about the remaining 15%. and, in the process, taking away his ownership of it. I tried to save that for hints as he/she was nearing completion and success -- something that very often wasn't even necessary - folks thinking for themselves tend to learn along the way. In the end, their victories served me better than my own.
Mame
 
  3  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 08:24 pm
@georgeob1,
Re: Second Paragraph: That's very smart as micro-managing usually kills incentive. Also, some people come up with some innovative ideas. Let them run with something and not only are we surprised and gratified, but it benefits the whole enterprise (and you look like a hero).
0 Replies
 
coluber2001
 
  3  
Tue 1 Mar, 2022 10:59 pm
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
Politics in Berlin has undergone a cataclysm that no one saw coming.

The Atlantic
MARCH 1, 2022, 12:26 PM ET

Late last year, when Angela Merkel was still German chancellor, I asked one of the most astute foreign-policy thinkers in her government about the country’s worrying dependence on authoritarian powers and the reluctance of its political class to reconsider these relationships.

At the time, Berlin was poised to inaugurate a new gas pipeline from Russia, and Germany’s biggest companies were announcing major new investments in China. But Merkel was on her way out, and the question on many minds was whether a leadership change might bring about a shift in Germany’s approach. The German official was skeptical.

“Freedom does not mean as much in Germany as it might in other places,” this person told me, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to candidly discuss German political mores. “If the trade-off is between economic decline and an erosion of freedoms, Germany could well choose the latter.”

Over the weekend, Merkel’s successor, Olaf Scholz, rose to the podium in the Bundestag and proved otherwise, putting freedom first in a stunning response to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. In doing so, he shattered German foreign-policy taboos dating back to the founding of the Federal Republic more than 70 years ago.


Scholz announced that Germany would end its dependence on Russian gas, spend an additional 100 billion euros on its military, and deliver hundreds of anti-tank weapons and Stinger missiles to Ukraine in order to help its overmatched military counter Russia’s all-out assault. Germany may also be forced to extend the life of its nuclear plants to fill the energy gap created by the halt to Russian gas supplies.


Each one of these decisions represents something of an earthquake. Taken together, they are a political cataclysm that no one saw coming—not from a novice chancellor known for his caution, not from a coalition of German parties with pacifist roots, and certainly not from a government led by the Social Democrats, with their history of close ties to Russia.

We are entering a new era,” Scholz told Parliament. “And that means that the world we now live in is not the one we knew before.”

From Washington, it can be hard to appreciate just how big the shifts are that we are witnessing in Germany, and so it helps to look back at where the country has come from.

As the German diplomat Thomas Bagger eloquently explained in 2019, Germany emerged from the fall of the Berlin Wall, German reunification, and the collapse of the Soviet Union convinced that it had finally landed on the right side of history. Democracy was sweeping across Eastern Europe, chasing authoritarian strongmen from power. What Vladimir Putin—a KGB agent living in the East German city of Dresden when the wall fell—has described as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century was a rebirth for Germany, and proof, in Bagger’s words, that history was bending toward its brand of liberal democracy. The end of the Cold War also meant peace, and with it came a radical reduction in German defense budgets.

One of her last major foreign-policy acts was to force through a European Union investment deal with China over the objections of the incoming Biden administration. A last-ditch attempt to keep intact an old world based on rules, unfettered trade, and cozy big-power relations, it collapsed within three months in a flurry of sanctions.

Still, Scholz sent the message to voters during his election campaign that nothing much needed to change. He ran as the natural heir to Merkel, even adopting her signature diamond-shaped hand posture to reassure Germans that “Mutti” (Merkel’s motherly nickname) would live on in the form of a bald, soft-spoken 63-year-old man from her party’s rival. He spoke about the need to relaunch former SPD Chancellor Willy Brandt’s signature “Ostpolitik” policy through greater outreach to Moscow and Beijing.

But as Harold Macmillan once said during his tenure as British prime minister, “events, dear boy, events” have a way of challenging leaders in ways they could not have imagined. Scholz’s initial reaction to Putin’s saber-rattling was to play it down. Nord Stream 2, the Russian pipeline to Germany that had long faced fierce resistance from EU partners and Washington, was an apolitical “business project” that should be decoupled from the sanctions debate, Scholz told the world in mid-December, even as Putin massed troops on the Russia-Ukraine border. (Not for nothing, the previous SPD chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, has morphed into a gas lobbyist for Putin since departing office in 2005.)

In one fell swoop, Scholz has liberated himself from the cautious Merkel mold that got him elected. Merkel, too, made momentous decisions during her 16 years as chancellor, but none was quite as seismic for Germany’s place in the world, or as potentially costly for the economy, as the ones that Scholz has announced less than three months into his chancellorship. It is an irony that the taboos that grew out of the country’s shameful World War II past could be smashed only by another war in the heart of Europe.

What comes next is uncertain. Implementing Scholz’s measures will be challenging, and he can expect resistance from deeply entrenched German interest groups. Fixing the underfunded German Bundeswehr won’t happen overnight. And replacing Russian gas supplies is a daunting task.

It is unclear what the implications are for Berlin’s relations with Beijing, which has sealed a “no limits” partnership with Putin and refused to condemn his aggression. China is markedly more important to the German economy and its leading businesses than Russia is. And its threat to Germany’s security, though slow-burning rather than in-your-face like Moscow’s, is no less real or concerning.

But the die has been cast. “Peace and freedom in Europe don’t have a price tag,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said last week. It is freedom over prosperity after all.


https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Wed 2 Mar, 2022 01:34 am
Ukraine is considered the "breadbasket of Europe".
Aid organisations have warned of serious consequences of the Ukraine war for food supplies - especially in countries of the Arab world and West Asia.

Egypt - with more than 100 million inhabitants the most populous country in the Arab world - obtains wheat imports to a large extent from Russia and Ukraine. The same applies to Tunisia. In both countries, poor people in particular are in urgent need of bread. The food is subsidised and is therefore affordable for almost everyone. Experts in Tunisia are already warning of sharp price increases as a result of the war. In future, the country wants to rely on other sources of imports. Grain is to come from Argentina or Romania, for example. It is unclear whether these supplies will be able to meet the population's great needs. Other countries in West Asia are facing similar problems.

Turkey is dependent on Moscow in several areas. In 2020, about 65 percent of wheat imports came from Russia. A deterioration in relations could make imports more expensive. Turkey is already plagued by a currency crisis and high inflation, and there have already been protests in many places in recent weeks because of price increases for food. If bread prices were to rise again, this could also increase anger against the government of President Erdoğan, who has sought proximity to Russia.
0 Replies
 
 

 
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