Tokyo 2020(1) Fantasy Olympics

Count me in mate

Whichever format the group decide works for me.

I like the 2018 format.

Ready to go.

I enjoy this activity. I like draft better than pool. Pool depends far too much on b&c pools to win.

I’m interested. I’m fine with whatever format you decide to use. Just tell me the rules.

If we use the budget method, I'm willing to *try* to keep track of the standings using the same method as before (auto-updating spreadsheet shared from my Google Drive). It's been three years since I've touched this sort of thing.
Unfortunately, our friends at Gracenote:
https://www.gracenote.com/virtual-medal-table/
haven't updated their predictions since April 1, and that has only the top 30 countries. However, this site:
https://olympicmedalspredictions.com/medals.php
seems to have predictions for most medals (wikipedia says 339 events, table has 334 golds, 331 silvers, and 392 bronze (always higher because of dual bronze in combat sports) - oh well, we don't need perfection - just something reasonable to use as a benchmark).

It's not that I'm unwilling to help if we do the original format, but I've found it to be a PITA to keep track of medals with men's/women's/mixed medals.

If I do this, I could probably use a bit of help up front (somebody else keeping score) until I verify that I can scrape the data from the official site (ideal), wikipedia, or some other site that is accurate, timely, and easy to scrape. Another complication for me is that my mother arrives on the 22nd for a 1-week visit - can't ignore her.

What I did last time was make the budget equal to the sum of the top three countries (based on whichever predictions are used) minus half a buck. That amounted to a budget of 323.5 out of a total of 918. Using the second link above, it would be 911.5 out of 3055.

So, if this is the method we want to use, then we probably just need to decide whose predictions to use and set the budget. Gracenote gets referenced quite a bit if you search for predictions. I'd try to hold out as long as possible in the hope that they'll produce a comprehensive list as in the past. The other site (or a different site if anybody has any recommendations) could be plan B. Just need to decide with enough time for people to choose teams.

By the way, I'm not trying to influence the choice toward the budget method. I never meant for it to compete with or replace the other method - doing both is always an option.

@markr,

Your methodology makes sense and I'd be happy to keep score until you get things automated.

I also don't think we'd need to wait for Gracenote's predictions before setting up our point values. As you said, these don't need to be perfect, and we only have eight days until Opening Ceremonies.

I just wanted to kick off the thread, and don't claim any ownership of setting up the rules, so if you want to set the point values and rules, then please go ahead.

This will be the same as 2018, except there are more teams, more medals, and a larger budget.
I will try to make an auto-updating (you may need to do a manual refresh) spreadsheet that I'll share from my Google Drive - it's essentially done, just need to identify the data source and test.

An expanded explanation is available here:
https://able2know.org/topic/442941-1


Each country will be assigned a cost based on the 7/5/21 update at this site:
https://olympicmedalspredictions.com/index.php
Countries that aren't listed cost 0.50.
Each contestant will receive a budget which is 911.50 for this Olympics.
Select as many countries as you wish without exceeding the budget.
You're not required to use your whole budget.
Scoring is the same as in past contests: gold=5, silver=3, bronze=1.
Ties will be broken in favor of the cheaper team.
Country costs are listed below.
One entry per person (you may be a proxy for friends).

Entries must be submitted before July 21 (PDT) - that means up until 11:59:59 p.m. on July 20, California time, unless there's an uproar about ending before opening ceremonies (some events start on 7/21).

Note that Russia has been banned, but their athletes will be competing under the NOC, ROC.

tgordon92:
I got this from ehBeth in 2018. Might help attract participants.

I've sent messages to all 2018 participants who haven't already contributed to this thread. Hopefully, they'll check their inboxes.

Some of them might be active on Facebook.

I'm not on Facebook, so will not be able to help, but perhaps someone who is on Facebook could contact the missing members who are active on Facebook.

These are the unlisted ".5" countries, correct??

Afghanistan
Albania
American Samoa
Andorra
Angola
Antigua and Barbuda
Aruba
Barbados
Belize
Benin
Bermuda
Bhutan
Bolivia
Botswana
British Virgin Islands
Brunei
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Cayman Islands
Central African Republic
Chad
Comoros
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Djibouti
Dominica
Dominican Republic
East Timor
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Eswatini
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guam
Guatemala
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Iceland
Iraq
Kiribati
Laos
Lebanon
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Marshall Islands
Mauritania
Mauritius
Micronesia
Moldova
Monaco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Nauru
Nepal
Nicaragua
Niger
Oman
Pakistan
Palau
Palestine
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Republic of the Congo
Rwanda
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Samoa
San Marino
Sao Tome and Principe
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Somalia
South Sudan
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Suriname
Syria
Tajikistan
Tanzania
Togo
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Turkmenistan
Tuvalu
United Arab Emirates
Uruguay
US Virgin Islands
Vanuatu
Vietnam
Yemen
Zambia
Zimbabwe

Team Oralloy

I don't know. I haven't made an attempt to determine which countries are present but not predicted to win anything.

Hope this gains traction. Don't know anything so used the 2016 medal table as a guide. Kudos on the 911.5 budget - cleverly stops lazy people like myself from simply picking the three highest-value countries!

Here's the link to my Google Docs spreadsheet. It might give you a security warning about the OptTeam script because I haven't registered it with Google. That might happen only if you click 'Refresh' (next to Help) and select 'Refresh.' If so, and if it's bothersome, I can disable it during the competition and compute the optimal team at the end.

Currently, the results section (columns J-O) is populated with 2016 results from wikipedia. That's the part that I need to wait for some sites to post results before I can finish.

Don't let the fact that the sheet currently has room for only 29 selections deter you from having a larger team. I'll expand it as necessary.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r-IBiEbccuWVm1R6BQsJfY9rwPvpStCtun1jMfgeB9g/edit?usp=sharing

OK. Here's my take.


China (CHN) 326
Japan (JPN) (host) 159
Australia (AUS) 135
Germany (GER) 106
Italy (ITA) 99
Kenya (KEN) 35
Ukraine (UKR) 35
Malaysia (MAS) 6
Ecuador (ECU) 6
Mexico (MEX) 3
Finland (FIN) 1
Moldova (MDA) 0.50

Here's my team. If nothing else, it will give me a lot of folks to root for.

Japan  159
Germany  106
Netherlands  99
France  86
South Korea 57
Brazil  43
Canada  41
Ukraine  35
Serbia  35
Croatia  21
Kazakhstan  20
Colombia  19
Azerbaijan  18
Georgia  18
Portugal  16
Romania  14
Ireland  14
Greece  13
Slovenia  12
South Africa  9
Indonesia  9
Bulgaria  8
Argentina  7
Ecuador  6
Malaysia  6
Venezuela  5
Grenada  5
Qatar  4
Algeria  3
Morocco  3
Kosovo  3
Mongolia  3
Mexico  3
Fiji  1
Lithuania  1
Cyprus  1
Cote d'Ivoire  1
Egypt  1
Macedonia  1
Finland  1
Puerto Rico 1
Bermuda 0.5
Burkina Faso 0.5
Singapore 0.5
Vietnam 0.5
Turkmenistan 0.5
Moldova 0.5
Niger 0.5
TOTAL 911.5

Thanks for the notification. Will work on my budget