1
   

One event changes attitude in UK-----how strange

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 02:14 pm
Steve (as 41oo) wrote:
well thanks for your post George

I believe the last time I referred to Peak Oil you dismissed it as pseudo scientific fantasy. I really wish it was, but from all that I have read its not. Its a real phenomenum dictated by geology, not economics. And in my view it explains a great deal of what is going on around us today.


I believe my reference to "pseudo scientific fantasy" was to a paper or website you cited - one laced with scientific phraseology, but also containing very fundamental errors in mathematics and statistical analysis.

That the production of petroleum - or any other commodity - will one day reach a maximum and then decline is more or less axiomatic. However these things do not necesarily follow "bell curves" as was asserted. Based on available facts, oil production worldwide can be expected to increase for several more decades, and then experience a slow decline , moderated by enhanced recovery techniques and rising prices.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 02:16 pm
George, I've lately been reading that the problem is a shortage of Light&sweet more than a general shortage overall.

I really don't know much about techniques used for refinement, but does can you provide any information?

Thanks

Cycloptichorn
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 02:17 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
I agree that the 'organic utopia' is a myth.

But I think the next stage in our development as a society will be one of increasingly efficiency when it comes to energy and hydrocarbon usage.

As with most problems I suspect the answer to our woes will lie in a balance; reduced usage of oil, greater usage of renewables (or biking and walking), better recycling and efficiency.

Or, synthetic hydrocarbons/oils that are grown would provide a nice boost to a limited resource market. I'd like to say Hydrogen would do the same but I fear that we are much farther away from that then projected.

Cycloptichorn



At last a posst from Cyclo with which I largely agree.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 02:29 pm
george would appreciate your comments on this

http://dieoff.com/page140.pdf
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 02:40 pm
and the French govt seem to recognise the term peak oil.

but of course they are French so their view can be discounted no? sorry non?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm
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hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 08:01 pm
current shortegies are also largely dictated by refinery capacity. several repots on CNBC have stated that refineries are not eager to increase capacity. the cost of a new refinery is quite enormous i understand, and since oil companies are doing quite well - thank you very much - they see no great urgency to spend boodles of money to build new refineries only to depress the price - as has happened before. if one looks at the share prices of oil companies one realizes that those stocks were in the dumps for a long period of time and only have started to increase in value in the last three years or so . the oil companies have learned not to be hasty again.
hbg
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 08:29 pm
And the insurgents put to fire another oil field in Iraq.
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rayban1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 10:21 pm
The following excerpts are from the excellent article posted by C.I.


Quote:
Britain's home secretary, Charles Clarke, also said he had authorized a global list of suspects likely to be expelled from or barred entry into Britain if they were found to be "preaching, running a Web site or writing articles which are intended to foment or provoke terrorism."


Quote:
The measures against what the police here call "preachers of hate" follow years of taunts by foreign intelligence services that British tolerance of radical clerics and terror suspects wanted in other places had turned London into "Londonistan" or "Beirut-on-Thames."


Excellent measures but then you have this....

Quote:
One cleric possibly affected by the new policy, which could take months to implement in the face of likely court challenges, is Abu Qatada, a Jordanian-born cleric who has been called in court documents a "right-hand-man" in Europe of Osama bin Laden and a spiritual guide to Al Qaeda.


The new policy which could take months to implement in the face of likely court challenges........were there any court challenges to the 4 lunatics who blew people up? Civilized people are severely handicapped when dealing with an ideology that knows no civilized rules........it makes me question whether or not we are intelligent enough to survive?????

Quote:
Less than a month before the attacks, Britain's top intelligence and law enforcement officials concluded that "at present there is not a group with both the current intent and the capability to attack the U.K.," according to a confidential terror assessment.


Then they have this embarrassment which is similar to our intell failure but on a much smaller scale

Then you have the following comments by the Lord Mayor of London which are very devisive:

Quote:
In a separate BBC interview today, Mr. Livingstone was asked what had motivated the bombers and, in reply, blamed "80 years of western intervention into predominantly Arab lands because of the western need for oil."

Asked if he denounced the London bombers, he said he also denounced "those governments which use indiscriminate slaughter to advance their foreign policy, as we have occasionally seen with the Israeli government bombing areas from which a terrorist group will have come, irrespective of the casualties it inflicts, women, children and men."

"Under foreign occupation and denied the right to vote, denied the right to run your own affairs, often denied the right to work for three generations, I suspect that if it had happened here in England, we would have produced a lot of suicide bombers ourselves," he said.


It would appear to me that Tony Blair and the Home Secretary are taking most if not all the proper steps........who thinks the British people will support them. Will the news media support them or will the leftist media continue undermining the efforts to confront terrorism and the preachers of hate.?
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goodfielder
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 10:29 pm
I hope someone was listening to Ken.
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Grand Duke
 
  1  
Reply Wed 20 Jul, 2005 10:42 pm
rayban1 wrote:
The new policy which could take months to implement in the face of likely court challenges........were there any court challenges to the 4 lunatics who blew people up? Civilized people are severely handicapped when dealing with an ideology that knows no civilized rules........it makes me question whether or not we are intelligent enough to survive?????


As much as I'd love to see some more anti-terrorist laws, any proper law needs months to get onto the statute books. There are multiple readings in the Commons and Lords, debates, amendments, further readings, mkore debates.

I'd rather wait now for a decent law, than have some half-arsed, poorly-worded piece of legislation, which the well-paid lawyers of terror suspects would pull to pieces in court.

Quote:
It would appear to me that Tony Blair and the Home Secretary are taking most if not all the proper steps........who thinks the British people will support them. Will the news media support them or will the leftist media continue undermining the efforts to confront terrorism and the preachers of hate.?


Well we had an election a few months ago, and New Labour won again, but with a reduced majority, so I guess that people here weren't THAT unhappy with Blair & Co's handling of the Iraq fiasco.

To tell you the truth, few people I know actually care about Iraq. Suicide bombs in London are bad, but as has been pointed out many times before, the IRA (partialy funded by some American citizens) bombed us for years, killing thousands, and many people here still didn't care about Northern Ireland, and still don't now.
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 03:41 am
Hamburger

Is it really just price? Or have oil companies not bothered to invest in refining capacity for the same reason they havent bothered putting money into exploration in recent years?

And what subliminal message is British Petroleum sending out by describing itself as "beyond petroleum"?
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kitchenpete
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 07:30 am
I've just now finished reading the whole thread to date (well, I started yesterday and finished over my sandwich today!).

I'm fascinated by the different views and the tangents which the arguments have taken.

In essence, I agree with Ken Livingstone, as quoted by Rayban and in the moments when (still in Singapore, following the announcement that London will host the 2012 Olympics) he made it absolutely clear, in rhetoric of which Churchill would have approved, that London will not surrender to the threat of terrorism.

I live and work in Central London. I live within 10 minutes walk of the Edgeware Road tube station which was blown up - and I've used it many times.

This is a multicultural city - genuinely so. We do not have the separation by race, religion or colour that even New York has.

I would not wish to change that, or the fact that one of my local landmarks is the Central London Mosque. What I find surprising is how the American ambassador's residence is almost next door to it - quirks of history, I suppose!

The comparisons with the IRA bombings are valid, as it sets the background to the attitude with which Londoners have lived for 30 years.

We have had more anti-terrorist measures in place over years than most other countries - for example, no train station (underground or mainline) in London has waste bins into which you can throw your rubbish. No surprise, sensible measure - you can't hide a bomb in a non-existent can!

Lash (and others) - I recognise that the history of British imperialism, whether in Ireland or further abroad, is full of treatments of indigenous peoples which we would consider unacceptable today. However, as has been stated already, the majority of the population of Northern Ireland wish to remain part of the UK. If that changes, I'd be delighted to see the democratic wishes of the majority (in favour of independence/unification with Eire) triumph.

One of the other points about a long history of imperial power and enough time to reflect on its consequences is that we are already dealing with the long term effects thereof. This is one of the reasons that the British, along with other European peoples, are nervous about the current US administration's desire to use overwhelming force to push its agenda.

We need to understand how the marginal factions within Islam have the need to protest in this manner. I am quite comfortable that the vast majority of muslims in the UK are opposed to these actions. One of the most positive elements of the aftermath of the events of 7/7 is how the muslim population has voiced the same concerns as the non-muslims. The peace-loving muslim is one of our best means to identify the potential bomber.

Finally, the importance of oil in the equation is difficult to deny...nor is the history of meddling in the politics of predominantly islamic states in order to push a "Western" agenda. Support of the forces fighting the USSR in Afghanistan, support of Iraq against Iran, tolerance of human rights issues in Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich nations, continuing support of the disproportionate Israeli response to a homeless people in search of recognition...this is an incomplete list.

I condemn the approach taken by the bombers in highlighting their concerns but we will survive even these forms of criticism.

Bear in mind that on many days since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 the death toll has been far higher than that on 7/7...some of it from internal terrorists (Sunni v Shia) but much of a direct result of US and UK involvement.


Are their lives worth less than ours? I don't think so.

Enough for now. KP


BTW: Chatham House is genuinely independent and highly respected in the world of International Relations.

Edit - spotted a missing word!
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Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 07:59 am
excellent summation KP

more bombs today

but im off to the cricket
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squinney
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 08:27 am
News of new attack:

Quote:
Small blasts hit London transport

Thursday, July 21, 2005; Posted: 10:16 a.m. EDT (14:16 GMT)

England (CNN) -- Four "attempts at explosions" have been reported on three London Underground stations and a bus, two weeks after the July 7 terror attacks, the UK capital's police chief has said.

Scotland Yard also confirmed they were looking into an "incident" at University College Hospital, where armed officers have been deployed. Witnesses reported policemen with flak jackets entered the hospital along with dogs.

.....

Other people said they smelled sour smoke.

An explosives expert contacted by CNN said the "sour smell" reported by people coming out of the underground would likely have come from two sources: the rucksack catching fire; and the explosives themselves catching fire after the detonator failed to explode them. The explosives could actually burn and give a toxic smell.


CNN NEWS

Was listening to NPR and reporter on the scene indicated police were going in with chemical suits due to small explosions being one indication of a possible "dispursing" bomb, rather than bombs that harm by means of large explosion.

Praying that's not the case. Perhaps these were just small time copycats that didn't know what they were doing.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 10:24 am
Steve (as 41oo) wrote:
george would appreciate your comments on this

http://dieoff.com/page140.pdf


Very interesting piece, Steve. I noted Hubbert's hypothesis - the apparent basis for the "bell-shaped" recovery projection contained in an earlier reference of yours, which I rejected as having no basis in either physical or statistical reasoning. I note that Hubbert's hypothesis is a conjecture he put forward, based on a set of empirical data, on the recovery of oil and other resource commodities. It is a valid scientific proposition in that it has an empirical basis and it leads to a testable or refutable hypothesis. His work is now over 50 years old. I'm not aware that it has been validated (or not) by subsequent experience. However its lack of prominence and visibility leaves me with some doubts on the matter.

As to the other elements of the argument - that governments and oil producers have reason to overstate their reserves and may have offered us a seriously distorted picture - I have no serious objection. Projections about the potential of known reserves and new discoveries have been wrong for many decades - mostly on the low side. I can't refute the argument that historical patterns may now be reversed and we may - in the short term - find ourselves with less recoverable petroleum than previously estimated. However I am inclined to doubt it. I do know that rather serious and very competent agencies of our government devote a good deal of attention to this question and they see no short-term problem.

In the long run, we do need to reduce our dependence on petroleum. However, this is a subject that abounds in misinformation and illusion. I am inclined to let economic forces operate and guide the technological developments we will need to implement the needed solutions. The problems are mostly political - dealing with loonies who - despite facts and analysis that contradict them - assert that wind & solar power are the solution, and that nuclear power must be stopped. (Wind and solar power have a place in the solution, but they are, at best, a very small part of it.) Hydrogen is not the answer either. Energy can be stored in the form of free hydrogen, but it is not found in that form in nature. The energy to separate hydrogen chemically must come from burning fossil fuels or a nuclear reactor - and a good deal of energy is lost in the transformations.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 10:40 am
In this context (oil/today's bombings):

Quote:
UK Oil Cos Not Seen Affected By London Bomb Incidents
Thursday July 21, 12:17 PM EDT


LONDON -(Dow Jones)- U.K. oil companies are unlikely to see any impact from the latest London bombings, an analyst said.

"Their assets are outside (the U.K.) and they are used to risky countries," he said.

A series of four blasts or attempted blasts took place in Central London on Thursday, only two weeks after terrorist attacks killed over 50 people in the capital. The Metropolitan Police said there was no casualties on Thursday.

At 1529 GMT, the shares of Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), which is listed and partly based in London, and BP PLC (BP) (BP) were trading slightly lower. Shell was down 0.8% at 1,753 pence and BP was off 1.0% at 619 pence in an overall flat market.

But the shares had already dipped before the attacks. The dip follows the Chinese government's announcement that it would revalue its Yuan currency, sparking concerns that it would slow the country's oil consumption and hurt future profits.

Shell and BP operate in countries widely considered to be difficult operating environments such as Nigeria, Angola and Saudi Arabia, where a terrorist attack took place against a refinery last year.
Source
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 12:12 pm
It seems the stock market in the US is lower today based on the London bombing.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 12:50 pm
I'd say the Yuan-dollar decoupling may have something to do with it as well.

Cycloptichorn
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spendius
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 02:04 pm
"We're goin' all the way 'til the wheels fall off and burn."

Bob Dylan.Brownsville Girl.(She's my honey love.)
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 21 Jul, 2005 02:29 pm
Georgeob1 writes
Quote:
In the long run, we do need to reduce our dependence on petroleum. However, this is a subject that abounds in misinformation and illusion. I am inclined to let economic forces operate and guide the technological developments we will need to implement the needed solutions.


I think the oil gurus who track oil supplies agree there is no imminent shortage of oil reserves. What there is not is certainty of availability of those oil reserves. A stable Middle East would go a long way to providing such assurance; however it is not healthy for one capitalistic minded area to control enough of the world's oil to create a worldwide economic crisis.
According to my petroleum/mechanical engineer son (Conoco-Phillips), there is no deficiency of oil. There is a severe deficiency in refining capacity and that is why a gallon of gasoline is so high--otherwise doubling the price of oil would not be helpful, but neither would it triple or quadruple the price of a gallon of gasoline. The high oil prices happened to hit during a time of tremedous economic growth that has highly increased demand. We need more oil exploration and more refineries to keep us going for the next few decades until some bright genius comes up with another plentiful, equally user friendly source of energy.

So long as the environmentalists and regulatory agencies make it impossible to tap known or undiscovered existing oil reserves and financially unfeasible to increase refining capability, there is unlikely to be any significant permanent easing of fuel costs for some time to come.
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